NBA 2026-27 Wins Model

built 2026-10-28 15:40 · darko 2026-10-28 15:40 · rosters 2026-10-28 15:40 · schedule 2026-10-28 15:40 · build 2026-10-28 15:40 · etr 2026-10-28 15:40 · monster_ros 2026-10-28 15:40 · fanduel 2026-10-28 15:40 · sim 2026-10-28 15:40

CHA Hornets #17 of 30

Projected wins
40.7
FanDuel 38.5 (o-115 / u-110) · record 3-1
Net rating
-0.28
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off +1.00 · def -1.12
Next game / full strength
-3.16 / -0.19
2026-10-28 @ DET (Monster daily minutes) · out: Kon Knueppel; Grant Williams; Coby White
DARKO vs market
-1.47 / +0.91
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 38.0 / 43.4
Minutes covered
18,713
of 18,720 remaining · fill 6 @ replacement
Roster
18
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
+0.08
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
84% ETR
14% MPG from ETR FPPG · 0% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
105 pts
40 reb · 23 ast · 14.4 3pm · 84% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
PlayerETR slotPosAgeGPMPGMinPTSREBASTSTLBLK3PMTOFG% zFT% zFPPG9-cat rkShare %DPMMktRatingODO ctbD ctbContrib
Brandon MillerSF1F236233.82,08724.25.53.81.00.73.63.1-1.16+1.0238.54711.1+0.98+0.99+0.98+1.46-0.48+0.81-0.27+0.55
Naz ReidPF1C276830.52,06416.17.12.30.91.02.41.7-0.37-0.1332.25811.0+0.08-0.96-0.44-0.20+0.28-0.11+0.15-0.24
Kon KnueppelINJ 2g · back 10-31SG1G216332.02,00721.15.63.90.80.33.62.2-0.31+0.6734.65410.7+1.32+2.41+1.86+2.32-1.00+1.24-0.53+1.00
Coby WhiteINJ 2g · back 10-31PG1G265830.01,73421.04.14.90.70.22.92.8-0.85+0.8533.11169.3+1.03+1.37+1.20+2.22-1.19+1.03-0.55+0.56
Moussa DiabateC1F246426.51,7018.39.21.80.90.90.11.1+0.64-0.7526.31409.1+1.37+0.95+1.16+0.11+1.26+0.05+0.58+0.53
Dennis SchroderPG1G336624.01,59010.52.64.80.70.10.91.7-0.42+0.3721.72648.5-2.69+0.20-1.25-1.23-1.46-0.52-0.62-0.53
Grayson AllenSG2G315727.01,54511.92.82.50.90.22.41.2-0.47+0.4121.21708.3+0.81+0.39+0.60+1.35-0.53+0.56-0.22+0.25
Royce O'NealeSF2F336521.11,3787.63.92.10.70.32.00.9-0.42-0.0117.92107.4-1.61-0.19-0.90-1.75+0.14-0.65+0.05-0.33
Sion Jamesmpg from ETR FPPGPG2G236517.71,142–––––––––13.7–6.1-1.48-2.34-1.91-1.69+0.22-0.52+0.07-0.58
Grant WilliamsINJ 2g · back 10-31mpg from ETR FPPGPF2F275520.01,093–––––––––14.6–5.8+1.35+2.85+2.10+0.40+0.95+0.12+0.28+0.61
Hannes SteinbachC3F204917.887210.16.61.00.60.60.31.2+0.57-0.0722.12314.7-2.76-1.63-2.19-2.50-0.26-0.59-0.06-0.51
Ryan KalkbrennerC2C24568.24576.14.70.80.41.20.10.7+0.41-0.2416.92852.4+0.59-0.51+0.04-0.25+0.84-0.03+0.10+0.01
Christian AndersonPG3G20418.53547.12.03.20.70.21.31.2-0.34+0.0915.53001.9-2.08-1.74-1.91-1.70-0.38-0.16-0.04-0.18
Liam McNeeleympg from ETR FPPGSF3G21477.0327–––––––––11.8–1.7-1.22-1.58-1.40-0.95-0.27-0.08-0.02-0.12
Tidjane SalaunF21227.4162–––––––––––0.9-1.63-4.64-3.14-1.03-0.60-0.05-0.03-0.14
PJ HallC24164.672–––––––––––0.4-1.39-2.49-1.94-2.10+0.72-0.04+0.01-0.04
Kylan BoswellG21164.164–––––––––––0.3-2.67–-2.67-1.94-0.73-0.03-0.01-0.05
Michael Ajayi164.164–––––––––––0.3-2.48-1.52-2.00-1.85-0.62-0.03-0.01-0.03
Team18,714105.439.622.76.14.214.413.0100-0.12+1.60+1.00-1.12+0.75

PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 6 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.

Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
PlayerInjRiskOut untilGames outPlayedMon %ETR %Avail %Next %Exp GPSeason GETR GMon GETR MPGMon MPGRole MPGExp minMonster note
Kon KnueppelINJ 2gmed2026-10-3120907682062.762.7626833.032.032.02,007Injured - left hamstring strain (Injury) - Est. Return 10/31
Coby WhiteINJ 2ghigh2026-10-3120797376057.857.8606031.230.030.01,734Injured - left calf strain (Injury) - Est. Return 10/31
Grant WilliamsINJ 2ghigh2026-10-3120836172054.754.7506318.420.020.01,093Injured - right hamstring strain (Injury) - Est. Return 10/31
Brandon Millerhigh0483747910061.765.7626533.534.033.72,087
Naz Reidmed0488858610067.671.6706929.831.030.42,064
Grayson Allenmed0474727310057.361.3605824.729.026.91,545
Moussa Diabatemed0488768210064.268.2636925.927.026.41,701
Dennis Schrodermed0488818510066.270.2676924.723.023.81,590
Royce O'Nealemed0488788310065.269.2656922.320.021.21,378
Hannes Steinbachhigh01547364048.949.9584218.617.017.8872
Sion Jamesmed0488778310064.768.7646917.618.017.81,142
Christian Andersonmed0456495310041.545.5424419.214.016.6354
Ryan Kalkbrennermed0488547110055.859.8466917.514.015.8457
Tidjane Salaunmed0327–2710021.724.7–21–14.014.0162
Liam McNeeleyhigh02546861046.948.9554215.412.013.7327

Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.

ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
Brandon MillerGallagher #38CHA needs someone to carry usage and Miller is the betting favorite for MIP
Naz ReidGallagher #66Charles Lee could push up usage and could have path to C minutes if young guys aren't improving
Kon KnueppelGallagher #59Record-breaking rookie season from deep, but don't think he has anywhere close to the ceiling that Miller has
Coby WhiteGallagher #86Showed he can be lead guard in March 2025 to turn in 28/5/4; CHA paid him for a reason
Coby WhiteDepth chartCalf issue expected to keep him out to start season
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Dennis Schroder
24.0 mpg × 66 g = 1,590
Sion James
17.7 mpg × 65 g = 1,142
Christian Anderson
8.5 mpg × 41 g = 354
Coby White IR
30.0 mpg × 58 g = 1,734
SG
Kon Knueppel
32.0 mpg × 63 g = 2,007
Grayson Allen
27.0 mpg × 57 g = 1,545
SF
Brandon Miller
33.8 mpg × 62 g = 2,087
Royce O'Neale
21.1 mpg × 65 g = 1,378
Liam McNeeley
7.0 mpg × 47 g = 327
PF
Naz Reid
30.5 mpg × 68 g = 2,064
Grant Williams
20.0 mpg × 55 g = 1,093
C
Moussa Diabate
26.5 mpg × 64 g = 1,701
Ryan Kalkbrenner
8.2 mpg × 56 g = 457
Hannes Steinbach
17.8 mpg × 49 g = 872

Not on ETR's depth chart: Tidjane Salaun, PJ Hall, Kylan Boswell, Michael Ajayi

Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
DateOpp (net that game)Our netWin %ResultOur players out
2026-10-21@ BKN -5.760%W 110-103
2026-10-23vs ATL +0.854%L 81-128
2026-10-24vs MIA +0.555%W 115-110
2026-10-26vs WAS -5.172%W 110-103
2026-10-28@ DET +3.6-3.223%Monster tonight Kon Knueppel; Grant Williams; Coby White
2026-10-30@ WAS -5.2-3.648%Kon Knueppel; Grant Williams; Coby White
2026-10-31vs PHI +2.5-0.249%
2026-11-02vs DET +2.2-0.250%
2026-11-04@ BKN -5.7-0.260%
2026-11-06vs BOS +6.3-0.237%
2026-11-09vs CLE +2.4-0.249%
2026-11-12@ PHX -0.8-0.244%
2026-11-15@ LAC -3.9-0.254%
2026-11-17@ LAL +2.3-0.235%
2026-11-20@ ATL +0.8-0.240%
2026-11-23vs MEM -3.4-0.267%
2026-11-25vs CHI -5.2-0.272%
2026-11-28vs BKN -5.7-0.273%
2026-11-30vs WAS -5.1-0.272%
2026-12-02@ BOS +6.3-0.224%
2026-12-12@ WAS -5.1-0.258%
2026-12-14vs TOR +2.8-0.248%
2026-12-16vs LAC -3.2-0.267%
2026-12-18vs OKC +4.7-0.242%
2026-12-19vs POR +2.4-0.249%
2026-12-21vs PHI +2.5-0.249%
2026-12-23@ ORL +1.0-0.239%
2026-12-26@ ATL +0.8-0.240%
2026-12-27@ MIA +0.5-0.241%
2026-12-29vs ORL +1.0-0.254%
2026-12-31vs SAS +5.9-0.238%
2027-01-02vs CLE +2.3-0.249%
2027-01-03@ MIL -6.5-0.262%
2027-01-05vs ATL +0.8-0.254%
2027-01-07vs DEN +3.4-0.246%
2027-01-09@ POR +2.4-0.235%
2027-01-10@ SAC -8.4-0.268%
2027-01-13@ GSW -0.2-0.243%
2027-01-14@ UTA -4.4-0.256%
2027-01-16@ DEN +3.4-0.232%
2027-01-19@ DAL -4.3-0.256%
2027-01-22vs HOU +5.3-0.240%
2027-01-23@ BOS +6.3-0.224%
2027-01-25vs ORL +1.0-0.254%
2027-01-27@ SAS +5.9-0.225%
2027-01-29@ MIN +2.8-0.234%
2027-01-31vs LAL +2.3-0.249%
2027-02-02@ MIA +0.5-0.241%
2027-02-04vs BOS +6.3-0.237%
2027-02-05vs GSW +0.1-0.256%
2027-02-07@ TOR +2.8-0.234%
2027-02-09@ NYK +5.0-0.227%
2027-02-11vs MIL -6.5-0.275%
2027-02-13vs DAL -4.3-0.270%
2027-02-15vs MIN +2.8-0.248%
2027-02-17vs TOR +2.8-0.248%
2027-02-25@ ORL +1.0-0.239%
2027-02-26@ HOU +5.3-0.227%
2027-02-28vs SAC -8.4-0.280%
2027-03-03@ PHI +2.5-0.234%
2027-03-06@ CHI -5.2-0.258%
2027-03-08@ IND +0.0-0.242%
2027-03-10vs NOP -4.6-0.270%
2027-03-11vs IND +0.0-0.257%
2027-03-13vs PHX -0.5-0.258%
2027-03-16@ OKC +4.7-0.228%
2027-03-18@ NOP -4.6-0.257%
2027-03-20@ DET +3.8-0.231%
2027-03-22@ MEM -3.4-0.253%
2027-03-24vs DET +3.8-0.245%
2027-03-26vs NYK +5.0-0.241%
2027-03-28vs UTA -4.4-0.270%
2027-03-30vs MIA +0.5-0.255%
2027-04-01@ NYK +5.0-0.227%
2027-04-02@ MIL -6.5-0.262%
2027-04-04@ CLE +2.3-0.235%
2027-04-06vs IND +0.0-0.257%
2027-04-07@ CHI -5.2-0.258%
2027-04-09vs BKN -5.7-0.273%
2027-04-11@ PHI +2.5-0.234%
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)

Bottom line: Brandon Miller is the engine (37% usage in his debut, preseason FGA leader). Naz Reid carries a scoring load while Coby White (calf) is out, and Diabate owns center. Charlotte was one of the most halfcourt-bound teams in the preseason.

Usage & ball-handling
  • Brandon Miller: 37.1% first-half usage in his debut and handled a lot. He finished fourth in preseason usage and first in FGA per 100 among rotation players. He shot 4-of-17 vs BOS but still carried the offense.
  • Naz Reid: 34.9% usage over his first two games and 32.4% for the preseason (fifth). He scored from all three levels. Lee wants him to initiate, though in game one he was mostly a spacer (5 first-half 3PA).
  • Dennis Schroder: primary handler early but passive (5 FGA and no FTAs in 15 minutes), and awful vs BOS.
  • ETR: Miller and Reid will fire away at least until Coby White is back.
Minutes & rotation
  • Starters: Schroder, Miller, McNeeley or O'Neale, Reid, Diabate. Sion James started the finale.
  • Out or limited: Coby White (another calf issue, docked hard), Kon Knueppel and Grant Williams (hamstrings, docked for aggravation risk). Grayson Allen's opening-night status is unclear.
  • PG2: Sion James was excellent and cut into Schroder. Rookie Christian Anderson debuted Oct 14 with 12.3 first-half minutes (Schroder had 10) and ran PG2 in the finale.
  • Center: Moussa Diabate has a big lead (16 first-half center minutes in the opener). Ryan Kalkbrenner is C2. Hannes Steinbach barely plays because he still has to learn NBA coverages.
  • PF2: Tidjane Salaun early, but his minutes were cut in the finale even with Grant Williams out.
  • ETR moves: Steinbach cut severely, White and Knueppel docked.
Who plays together
  • Sion James starting in the finale opened PG2 for Anderson. One of the two rookies or James should take the Schroder minutes over time.
  • Diabate and Kalkbrenner split center cleanly. Steinbach only plays when Diabate leaves.
Pace & shot selection
  • Third-most halfcourt-heavy team in the preseason (88.3% of possessions in the halfcourt), so little transition.
  • Shot volume is concentrated in Miller and Reid.

Player by player

PlayerModel GPModel MPGModel minPreseason read
Brandon Miller6233.82,087No. 1 option. 37% usage and the preseason FGA-per-100 leader among rotation players. Healthy (no shoulder wrap).
Naz Reid6830.52,064High-usage scorer (about 32–35%) while White is out.
Moussa Diabate6426.51,701Clear C1. Lee loves him.
Dennis Schroder6624.01,590Starting PG for now, but low-volume and losing minutes to James and Anderson.
Sion James6517.71,142Strong PG2. Started the finale.
Christian Anderson418.5354Rookie. Out-minuted Schroder in his debut and could make the opening-night rotation if Allen is out.
Ryan Kalkbrenner568.2457C2 ahead of Steinbach.
Tidjane Salaun227.4162PF2 early, minutes cut late.
Liam McNeeley477.0327Started early, foul trouble. Fighting for nightly minutes.
Coby White5830.01,734Out with a calf injury. His return should pull usage back from Miller and Reid.

Preseason starting lineups

GameOppStartersOut (ETR's noteworthy inactives)
Oct 6BKNDennis Schroder, Grayson Allen, Liam McNeeley, Naz Reid, Moussa DiabateCoby White, Kon Knueppel, Grant Williams, Brandon Miller, Christian Anderson
Oct 11MILDennis Schroder, Brandon Miller, Liam McNeeley, Naz Reid, Moussa DiabateKon Knueppel, Coby White, Christian Anderson, Grant Williams
Oct 14BOSDennis Schroder, Brandon Miller, Royce O’Neale, Naz Reid, Moussa DiabateKon Knueppel

Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.