NBA 2026-27 Wins Model

built 2026-10-28 15:40 · darko 2026-10-28 15:40 · rosters 2026-10-28 15:40 · schedule 2026-10-28 15:40 · build 2026-10-28 15:40 · etr 2026-10-28 15:40 · monster_ros 2026-10-28 15:40 · fanduel 2026-10-28 15:40 · sim 2026-10-28 15:40

MEM Grizzlies #21 of 30

Projected wins
34.6
FanDuel 34.5 (o-135 / u+110) · record 4-0
Net rating
-3.36
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off -0.84 · def -0.78
Next game / full strength
-3.36 / -3.36
2026-10-29 @ POR · out: nobody (role 12+ mpg)
DARKO vs market
-2.97 / -3.74
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 35.4 / 33.8
Minutes covered
18,720
of 18,720 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
18
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
+0.14
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
93% ETR
3% MPG from ETR FPPG · 4% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
118 pts
44 reb · 26 ast · 13.6 3pm · 93% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
PlayerETR slotPosAgeGPMPGMinPTSREBASTSTLBLK3PMTOFG% zFT% zFPPG9-cat rkShare %DPMMktRatingODO ctbD ctbContrib
Cameron BoozerPF1F196630.01,99517.88.83.80.80.51.02.3+0.99+0.1035.67210.7-1.54+0.19-0.68-1.43-0.12-0.76-0.06-0.36
Cedric CowardSG1F236429.21,86615.96.23.40.80.51.81.9-0.20+0.4230.510210.0-0.39-1.48-0.93+0.35-0.74+0.17-0.37-0.47
Jaylen WellsSF1F236627.31,80211.63.21.80.80.11.91.1-0.58+0.1319.82449.6-0.72+2.34+0.81+0.31-1.03+0.15-0.49+0.39
Ty JeromePG1G295829.51,71119.33.36.01.30.12.52.1-0.10+0.7234.4689.1+3.40+1.03+2.21+3.73-0.33+1.70-0.15+1.01
Jerami GrantSF2F325726.31,49915.72.91.90.70.62.11.5-0.56+0.4024.41898.0-1.03-0.01-0.52-0.99-0.04-0.40-0.01-0.21
Zach EdeyC1C245426.31,40714.011.21.40.71.80.21.9+1.86-0.3435.2787.5+0.67-0.30+0.19-1.27+1.94-0.48+0.73+0.07
Isaiah StewartC1C255822.91,3279.05.41.30.41.50.71.1+0.40-0.1521.92017.1-1.57+0.10-0.74-2.17+0.60-0.77+0.21-0.26
Cam SpencerPG2G266419.91,2829.82.45.30.70.21.81.2-0.34+0.5222.11596.8-0.13-1.58-0.85+0.84-0.97+0.29-0.33-0.29
Scotty Pippen Jr.SG2G255422.01,19912.53.25.21.60.41.42.2-0.20-0.0927.81416.4+0.34-1.20-0.43-0.17+0.51-0.05+0.16-0.14
Quinten PostC2C266218.11,1129.54.51.90.40.61.91.0-0.35+0.0119.82225.9-0.60-1.58-1.09-0.66+0.07-0.20+0.02-0.32
G.G. JacksonPF2F215718.51,05512.53.81.50.50.61.51.4-0.12-0.0421.32505.6-1.84-3.17-2.50-0.45-1.39-0.12-0.39-0.70
Taylor HendricksSF3F224118.37507.84.11.00.80.61.30.9-0.21-0.1017.62554.0-0.70-2.70-1.70-0.42-0.28-0.08-0.06-0.34
Javon Smallmpg from ETR FPPGPG3G233615.8568–––––––––––3.0+0.13-2.01-0.94+0.63-0.50+0.10-0.08-0.14
Olivier-Maxence ProsperPF3F24498.54159.33.91.30.70.21.00.8+0.14-0.3018.22722.2+0.37-3.23-1.43+0.50-0.13+0.05-0.01-0.16
Karim LopezETR depth fillPF4F19446.6289–––––––––––1.5-2.00-1.60-1.80-2.08+0.09-0.16+0.01-0.14
Jahmai MashackETR depth fillSG4G23445.3234–––––––––––1.2-2.66-3.72-3.19-2.70+0.04-0.16+0.00-0.20
Kris MurrayETR depth fillSF5F26216.1128–––––––––––0.7+0.20-1.52-0.66-1.25+1.46-0.04+0.05-0.02
Carson CooperETR depth fillC3C22165.181–––––––––––0.4-3.57-1.48-2.53-3.31-0.26-0.07-0.01-0.06
Team18,720117.644.526.07.25.313.613.8100-1.62-3.02-0.84-0.78-2.34

PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.

Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
PlayerInjRiskOut untilGames outPlayedMon %ETR %Avail %Next %Exp GPSeason GETR GMon GETR MPGMon MPGRole MPGExp minMonster note
Cameron Boozermed048882858566.570.5686928.032.030.01,995
Ty Jeromehigh048365747458.062.0556528.031.029.51,711
Cedric Cowardmed038876828264.067.0626928.330.029.21,866
Jaylen Wellsmed048881858566.070.0676926.628.027.31,802
Jerami Granthigh048363737357.061.0536526.626.026.31,499
Zach Edeyextreme037662696953.556.5515927.625.026.31,407
Isaiah Stewarthigh038365747458.061.0546522.823.022.91,327
Scotty Pippen Jr.high048356707054.558.5486525.019.022.01,199
Cam Spencermed048877838364.568.5646922.817.019.91,282
G.G. Jacksonhigh048363737357.061.0536521.016.018.51,055
Taylor Hendrickshigh015451535341.042.0414220.616.018.3750
Quinten Postmed048869797961.565.5586920.216.018.11,112
Javon Smallmed005636464636.036.0284421.213.017.1568
Olivier-Maxence Prospermed005669636349.049.0544419.914.017.0415
Karim Lopezmed0056–565644.044.0–4412.214.013.1289
Kris Murraymed0127–272721.022.0–2112.2–12.2128
Jahmai Mashackmed0056–565644.044.0–4412.29.010.6234
Carson Coopermed0020–202016.016.0–1612.28.010.181

Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.

ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
Cameron BoozerGallagher #48Outrageous college stats and looked the part in Summer League; ROY betting favorite for good reason
Cedric CowardGallagher #102Had minutes limit on him for most of season due to managed offseason, but could be let loose more often
Ty JeromeGallagher #71Had a 34.1 USG% and 61.6 TS% after his tidy 64.1 TS% with CLE; would be steal if he's on the floor for 65 games
Zach EdeyGallagher #70Was going nuts in last six games at 17/14/1 with 2.2 blocks; could explode with health
Isaiah StewartDepth chartAnkle tweak may cost him start of season
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Ty Jerome
29.5 mpg × 58 g = 1,711
Cam Spencer
19.9 mpg × 64 g = 1,282
Javon Small 2W
15.8 mpg × 36 g = 568
SG
Cedric Coward
29.2 mpg × 64 g = 1,866
Scotty Pippen Jr.
22.0 mpg × 54 g = 1,199
Jahmai Mashack 2W
5.3 mpg × 44 g = 234
SF
Jaylen Wells
27.3 mpg × 66 g = 1,802
Jerami Grant
26.3 mpg × 57 g = 1,499
Taylor Hendricks
18.3 mpg × 41 g = 750
Kris Murray
6.1 mpg × 21 g = 128
PF
Cameron Boozer
30.0 mpg × 66 g = 1,995
G.G. Jackson
18.5 mpg × 57 g = 1,055
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
8.5 mpg × 49 g = 415
Karim Lopez
6.6 mpg × 44 g = 289
C
Zach Edey
26.3 mpg × 54 g = 1,407
Quinten Post
18.1 mpg × 62 g = 1,112
Carson Cooper 2W
5.1 mpg × 16 g = 81
Isaiah Stewart IR
22.9 mpg × 58 g = 1,327
Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
DateOpp (net that game)Our netWin %ResultOur players out
2026-10-21vs UTA -4.561%W 123-103
2026-10-23@ GSW +0.332%W 111-108
2026-10-25@ SAC -8.459%W 123-112
2026-10-26@ UTA -4.546%W 110-105
2026-10-29@ POR +2.6-3.425%
2026-10-31vs SAC -8.6-3.473%
2026-11-02vs NOP -4.7-3.462%
2026-11-04vs IND -0.0-3.447%
2026-11-06vs OKC +4.7-3.432%
2026-11-09@ TOR +0.0-3.432%
2026-11-11vs DEN +3.4-3.436%
2026-11-13@ NOP -4.6-3.447%
2026-11-14vs BKN -5.7-3.464%
2026-11-16@ WAS -5.1-3.448%
2026-11-18@ CLE +2.3-3.426%
2026-11-19vs GSW -0.3-3.448%
2026-11-21@ MIN +2.8-3.425%
2026-11-23@ CHA -0.2-3.433%
2026-11-25vs LAC -4.4-3.461%
2026-11-27@ MIN +2.8-3.425%
2026-11-29vs LAL +2.3-3.439%
2026-12-01@ PHI +2.5-3.426%
2026-12-02@ DET +3.8-3.422%
2026-12-12vs MIL -6.5-3.467%
2026-12-14vs GSW -0.3-3.448%
2026-12-16vs MIA +0.5-3.445%
2026-12-18vs HOU +5.3-3.431%
2026-12-20vs PHX -0.8-3.449%
2026-12-21@ NOP -4.6-3.447%
2026-12-23vs TOR +2.8-3.438%
2026-12-26@ LAC -3.2-3.442%
2026-12-27@ LAL +2.3-3.426%
2026-12-29vs SAS +5.9-3.429%
2027-01-03@ ORL +1.0-3.430%
2027-01-05@ MIA +0.5-3.431%
2027-01-07@ HOU +5.3-3.419%
2027-01-08@ SAS +5.9-3.418%
2027-01-10vs DAL -4.3-3.460%
2027-01-12vs DAL -4.3-3.460%
2027-01-14@ DEN +3.4-3.423%
2027-01-16vs CLE +2.3-3.440%
2027-01-18vs HOU +5.3-3.431%
2027-01-20@ PHX -0.8-3.435%
2027-01-22@ OKC +4.7-3.420%
2027-01-25vs MIN +2.8-3.438%
2027-01-28@ OKC +4.7-3.420%
2027-01-30@ UTA -4.4-3.446%
2027-02-01@ MIL -6.5-3.452%
2027-02-03vs PHI +2.5-3.439%
2027-02-06vs POR +2.4-3.439%
2027-02-08vs POR +2.4-3.439%
2027-02-10vs ORL +1.0-3.444%
2027-02-12vs LAC -3.2-3.457%
2027-02-15vs NYK +5.0-3.431%
2027-02-17vs SAS +5.9-3.429%
2027-02-18vs BOS +6.3-3.428%
2027-02-26@ SAS +5.9-3.418%
2027-02-27vs SAC -8.4-3.472%
2027-03-02@ NYK +5.0-3.420%
2027-03-04@ ATL +0.8-3.430%
2027-03-06vs NOP -4.6-3.461%
2027-03-08vs ATL +0.8-3.444%
2027-03-09@ DAL -4.3-3.446%
2027-03-11@ BOS +6.3-3.417%
2027-03-13@ CHI -5.2-3.448%
2027-03-15vs PHX -0.5-3.448%
2027-03-17@ GSW +1.2-3.429%
2027-03-18@ LAC -3.0-3.442%
2027-03-20vs OKC +4.7-3.432%
2027-03-22vs CHA -0.2-3.447%
2027-03-24@ IND +0.0-3.432%
2027-03-25vs CHI -5.2-3.463%
2027-03-28@ BKN -5.7-3.450%
2027-03-30vs LAL +2.3-3.439%
2027-04-02@ HOU +5.3-3.419%
2027-04-04@ DEN +3.4-3.423%
2027-04-06vs DET +3.8-3.435%
2027-04-07vs WAS -5.1-3.463%
2027-04-09@ PHX -0.5-3.434%
2027-04-11@ DAL -4.3-3.446%
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)

Bottom line: Memphis had the preseason's best shot profile (first in rim frequency and location eFG%, almost no mid-range). Ty Jerome runs it at about 30% usage, Cam Boozer is a hub as a rookie, and Edey is ramping toward 24–25 minutes.

Usage & ball-handling
  • Ty Jerome: lead handler at 29.3%, then 36.1% in a first half with no turnovers. He was at 29.5% usage through 33 preseason minutes with a 90.1 TS%, and third in FGA per 100 among rotation players.
  • Cam Boozer: plays like a shooting guard and gets the ball on the move. Memphis will play through him, and he got some center minutes.
  • Zach Edey: 3.6% usage in his debut, but the offense ran through him more by game three.
  • GG Jackson's big usage numbers came in garbage minutes. ETR calls it a preseason mirage.
Minutes & rotation
  • Starters: Jerome, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Boozer, Edey.
  • Edey ramp: 10, then 16, then 21 minutes. He might reach 24–25 on opening night after being rushed back last year.
  • Coward went from 18 to 22 minutes and looks healthy.
  • Top 10 bench: Cam Spencer (behind Jerome), Scotty Pippen Jr. (behind Wells), Jerami Grant, GG Jackson, Isaiah Stewart (Edey's backup, minor ankle tweak). Quinten Post covered the non-Edey minutes while Stewart was out. Taylor Hendricks is 11th.
  • Possible cuts: Kris Murray (started the finale for a last look), Walter Clayton Jr., Micah Peavy.
Who plays together
  • Boozer and Jerome look great together.
  • Spencer for Jerome and Pippen for Wells are straight swaps.
  • Grant is a second-unit staple.
Pace & shot selection
  • Up-tempo movement offense: 81 first-half points at ATL, with assists on 74.4% of makes.
  • 103.1 halfcourt offensive rating and only 1.1% of possessions scored in the mid-range. ETR: "full Morey ball."
  • First in location eFG% and rim frequency in the preseason.
  • Pippen Jr. led rotation players in steals per 100.

Player by player

PlayerModel GPModel MPGModel minPreseason read
Ty Jerome5829.51,711Primary handler with about 30% usage and elite efficiency.
Cameron Boozer6630.01,995Rookie hub. Rookie of the Year favorite.
Zach Edey5426.31,407Ramping 10, 16, then 21 minutes. More post touches.
Cedric Coward6429.21,866Healthy starting wing, minutes rising.
Jaylen Wells6627.31,802Starting wing.
Isaiah Stewart5822.91,327Edey's backup.
Scotty Pippen Jr.5422.01,199Backup wing, steals leader.
Cam Spencer6419.91,282Backup PG.
Jerami Grant5726.31,499Second-unit staple.
GG Jackson II5718.51,05510th man. His usage was inflated by garbage time.

Preseason starting lineups

GameOppStartersOut (ETR's noteworthy inactives)
Oct 5ATLTy Jerome, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Cam Boozer, Quinten PostZach Edey
Oct 7ORLTy Jerome, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Cam Boozer, Zach EdeyIsaiah Stewart
Oct 9CHITy Jerome, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Cam Boozer, Zach EdeyIsaiah Stewart

Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.