NBA 2026-27 Wins Model

built 2026-10-28 15:40 · darko 2026-10-28 15:40 · rosters 2026-10-28 15:40 · schedule 2026-10-28 15:40 · build 2026-10-28 15:40 · etr 2026-10-28 15:40 · monster_ros 2026-10-28 15:40 · fanduel 2026-10-28 15:40 · sim 2026-10-28 15:40

SAS Spurs #3 of 30

Projected wins
55.2
FanDuel 58.5 (o-125 / u+100) · record 2-2
Net rating
+5.93
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off +4.12 · def +2.11
Next game / full strength
+6.77 / +5.90
2026-10-28 @ UTA (Monster daily minutes) · out: Tobias Harris
DARKO vs market
+4.88 / +6.97
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 52.7 / 57.5
Minutes covered
18,720
of 18,720 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
17
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
-0.41
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
92% ETR
5% MPG from ETR FPPG · 3% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
111 pts
43 reb · 27 ast · 12.0 3pm · 92% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
PlayerETR slotPosAgeGPMPGMinPTSREBASTSTLBLK3PMTOFG% zFT% zFPPG9-cat rkShare %DPMMktRatingODO ctbD ctbContrib
Dylan HarperSF1G206731.12,08817.24.75.51.10.51.42.0+0.57-0.0733.97311.2+0.64-0.28+0.18+1.28-0.64+0.72-0.36+0.10
Stephon CastleSG1G216531.22,01916.95.27.51.20.31.33.0-0.24-0.5935.811410.8+1.29+2.05+1.67+1.55-0.26+0.84-0.14+0.90
De'Aaron FoxPG1G286531.02,00416.83.56.01.30.31.72.1-0.09-0.0432.59110.7+2.25+3.71+2.98+2.02+0.23+1.08+0.12+1.59
Victor WembanyamaC1F226430.81,97526.612.03.61.13.52.32.7+0.76+0.8957.7210.5+6.24+6.08+6.16+3.79+2.44+1.99+1.28+3.25
Julian ChampagnieSG2F257026.41,8379.94.81.60.70.42.10.8-0.45+0.2020.71449.8+1.53-0.39+0.57+0.83+0.69+0.41+0.34+0.28
Devin VassellPF1G266328.51,80413.53.72.70.90.42.30.9-0.55+0.1425.01239.6+1.16+1.28+1.22+0.62+0.54+0.30+0.26+0.59
Tobias HarrisOUTPF2F346325.01,57912.24.92.10.80.51.21.0-0.04+0.4124.21488.4+0.92+1.15+1.04+0.15+0.77+0.06+0.32+0.44
Keldon JohnsonSF2F276821.41,46112.64.71.40.60.21.30.9+0.21+0.0321.72167.8-0.16-0.36-0.26+0.20-0.36+0.08-0.14-0.10
Luke KornetC2C316320.21,2656.45.91.70.50.90.00.5+0.44-0.0219.72216.8+0.61+1.12+0.87-1.09+1.70-0.37+0.58+0.29
Carter BryantSF3F206517.51,1297.84.61.40.50.51.40.9-0.48-0.1217.42886.0-2.16+2.44+0.14-2.01-0.15-0.60-0.05+0.04
Harrison Barnesmpg from ETR FPPGPF3F34659.2594–––––––––12.4–3.2+0.47-0.21+0.13+0.44+0.03+0.07+0.00+0.02
Tarris Reedmpg from ETR FPPGC3C23397.4289–––––––––––1.5-3.30-1.54-2.42-2.77-0.52-0.21-0.04-0.19
Jordan McLaughlinETR depth fillPG2G30435.7249–––––––––––1.3-1.09-0.10-0.60-1.23+0.13-0.08+0.01-0.04
Ja'Kobi GillespieETR depth fillPG3G22445.5243–––––––––––1.3-2.63-1.61-2.12-1.44-1.19-0.09-0.08-0.14
Maliq BrownETR depth fillSG3F22165.078–––––––––––0.4-2.10-1.63-1.86-1.94-0.16-0.04-0.00-0.04
David Jones GarciaF24194.075–––––––––––0.4-0.68-1.59-1.14-0.51-0.17-0.01-0.00-0.02
Jayden QuaintanceINJ 33g · back 01-01F1993.532–––––––––––0.2-3.20–-3.20-2.88-0.32-0.03-0.00-0.03
Team18,720111.242.926.76.85.912.011.7100+6.22+7.65+4.12+2.10+6.94

PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.

Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
PlayerInjRiskOut untilGames outPlayedMon %ETR %Avail %Next %Exp GPSeason GETR GMon GETR MPGMon MPGRole MPGExp minMonster note
Jayden QuaintanceINJ 33ghigh2027-01-0132020–2009.09.0–9–7.07.032Injured - knee surgery (Injury) - Est. Return 01/01
Stephon Castlehigh0485818310064.768.7676630.532.031.32,019
Dylan Harpermed0490828610067.171.1687030.232.031.12,088
De'Aaron Foxhigh0485818310064.768.7676630.032.031.02,004
Victor Wembanyamahigh0485808210064.268.2666630.631.030.81,975
Devin Vassellhigh0485778110063.267.2646629.128.028.61,804
Julian Champagniemed0490888910069.673.6737024.828.026.41,837
Tobias HarrisOUTmed00887682063.263.2596926.025.025.01,579Out - left calf strain (Injury) - Est. Return 10/28
Keldon Johnsonmed0490858710068.172.1707022.920.021.41,461
Luke Kornethigh0485768010062.766.7636620.520.020.21,265
Carter Bryantmed0490768310064.768.7637021.014.017.51,129
Harrison Barneslow0495708310064.768.7597416.115.015.5594
Tarris Reedmed03584451039.042.0374520.79.014.8289
Jordan McLaughlinhigh0255–5510043.445.4–4311.911.011.4249
Ja'Kobi Gillespiemed0258–58044.446.4–4511.910.010.9243

Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.

ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
Dylan HarperGallagher #56Astonishing play in the postseason for elite talent, but Spurs may not play him enough
Stephon CastleGallagher #92Will be much better in eight cat, but we'll stuff the stat sheet besides threes; usual SAS minutes concerns
De'Aaron FoxGallagher #84Postseason issues and Dylan Harper looming likely cause draft slide
Victor WembanyamaGallagher #2Blocks did come down some last year as teams refused to go at Wemby; Spurs just won't play him a ton with depth and blowouts
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
De'Aaron Fox
31.0 mpg × 65 g = 2,004
Jordan McLaughlin
5.7 mpg × 43 g = 249
Ja'Kobi Gillespie 2W
5.5 mpg × 44 g = 243
SG
Stephon Castle
31.2 mpg × 65 g = 2,019
Julian Champagnie
26.4 mpg × 70 g = 1,837
Maliq Brown 2W
5.0 mpg × 16 g = 78
SF
Dylan Harper
31.1 mpg × 67 g = 2,088
Keldon Johnson
21.4 mpg × 68 g = 1,461
Carter Bryant
17.5 mpg × 65 g = 1,129
PF
Devin Vassell
28.5 mpg × 63 g = 1,804
Tobias Harris
25.0 mpg × 63 g = 1,579
Harrison Barnes
9.2 mpg × 65 g = 594
C
Victor Wembanyama
30.8 mpg × 64 g = 1,975
Luke Kornet
20.2 mpg × 63 g = 1,265
Tarris Reed
7.4 mpg × 39 g = 289

Not on ETR's depth chart: David Jones Garcia, Jayden Quaintance

Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
DateOpp (net that game)Our netWin %ResultOur players out
2026-10-20vs OKC +4.761%L 104-116
2026-10-23vs HOU +5.260%L 110-114
2026-10-24@ DAL -4.474%W 122-106
2026-10-27vs SAC -8.491%W 130-103
2026-10-28@ UTA -7.5+6.883%Monster tonight Tobias Harris
2026-10-31vs MIN +2.8+5.967%
2026-11-02vs UTA -4.7+5.985%
2026-11-04vs DAL -4.9+5.985%
2026-11-06@ SAC -8.2+5.983%
2026-11-07@ POR +2.4+5.954%
2026-11-09@ PHX -0.8+5.964%
2026-11-11@ CHI -5.2+5.976%
2026-11-13vs GSW -0.3+5.975%
2026-11-15@ UTA -4.4+5.974%
2026-11-17vs DET +3.8+5.964%
2026-11-19vs LAC -3.9+5.984%
2026-11-21vs NOP -4.6+5.985%
2026-11-23@ SAC -8.4+5.983%
2026-11-25@ POR +2.4+5.954%
2026-11-27vs LAL +2.3+5.968%
2026-11-29vs BOS +6.3+5.956%
2026-11-30@ MIL -6.5+5.979%
2026-12-03vs TOR +2.8+5.967%
2026-12-13vs LAC -3.2+5.982%
2026-12-15@ CLE +2.3+5.954%
2026-12-16@ TOR +2.8+5.953%
2026-12-18vs CHI -5.2+5.986%
2026-12-20@ NOP -4.6+5.974%
2026-12-21vs MIL -6.5+5.988%
2026-12-23@ BKN -5.7+5.977%
2026-12-25@ NYK +5.0+5.946%
2026-12-27vs ATL +0.8+5.972%
2026-12-29@ MEM -3.4+5.971%
2026-12-31@ CHA -0.2+5.962%
2027-01-01@ WAS -5.1+5.976%
2027-01-03@ MIN +2.8+5.952%
2027-01-06vs IND -0.0+5.974%
2027-01-08vs MEM -3.4+5.982%
2027-01-10@ ATL +0.8+5.959%
2027-01-14vs NOP -4.6+5.985%
2027-01-17@ NOP -4.6+5.974%
2027-01-20vs MIA +0.5+5.973%
2027-01-22vs MIN +2.8+5.967%
2027-01-24vs POR +2.4+5.968%
2027-01-26vs HOU +5.3+5.959%
2027-01-27vs CHA -0.2+5.975%
2027-01-30@ GSW -0.2+5.962%
2027-02-01@ GSW +0.1+5.961%
2027-02-02@ LAC -3.2+5.971%
2027-02-04vs ORL +1.0+5.972%
2027-02-06vs LAL +2.3+5.968%
2027-02-09@ DAL -4.3+5.974%
2027-02-11@ OKC +4.7+5.946%
2027-02-13@ ORL +1.0+5.958%
2027-02-15@ MIA +0.5+5.960%
2027-02-17@ MEM -3.4+5.971%
2027-02-18@ MIN +2.8+5.952%
2027-02-26vs MEM -3.4+5.982%
2027-02-28vs DEN +3.4+5.965%
2027-03-03@ DEN +3.4+5.950%
2027-03-05@ HOU +5.3+5.945%
2027-03-07vs NYK +5.0+5.960%
2027-03-09vs WAS -5.1+5.986%
2027-03-11vs PHI +2.5+5.968%
2027-03-14@ OKC +4.7+5.946%
2027-03-16@ HOU +5.3+5.945%
2027-03-18vs BKN -5.7+5.987%
2027-03-19vs DAL -4.3+5.984%
2027-03-21@ PHI +2.5+5.954%
2027-03-24@ BOS +6.3+5.941%
2027-03-25@ IND +0.0+5.961%
2027-03-27@ DET +3.8+5.949%
2027-03-29vs PHX -0.5+5.976%
2027-03-31vs PHX -0.5+5.976%
2027-04-02@ LAC -3.0+5.970%
2027-04-04@ LAL +2.3+5.954%
2027-04-06vs SAC -8.4+5.991%
2027-04-07vs CLE +2.3+5.968%
2027-04-09vs DEN +3.4+5.965%
2027-04-11vs POR +2.8+5.967%
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)

Bottom line: Mitch Johnson will start Dylan Harper with Fox, Castle, Vassell and Wemby, a big downhill lineup that squeezes everyone's usage. The rotation is tight, and ETR expects blowouts to trim minutes.

Usage & ball-handling
  • Dylan Harper: primary handler while Fox was out. With Fox back he lost some handling but still took 11 shots in 22.4 minutes.
  • Victor Wembanyama: brings the ball up a lot and led the team in first-half usage (30.6%) in one game.
  • Stephon Castle: 15 FTAs in one game. He split handling with Harper.
  • De'Aaron Fox took back some handling in his return.
  • ETR: Harper in the starting five lowers the upside of Fox, Castle, Vassell and even Wemby.
Minutes & rotation
  • Starters: Fox, Castle, Harper, Devin Vassell, Wembanyama. Julian Champagnie started when Fox was out.
  • Bench: Carter Bryant was the sixth man (subbing for Fox) but slid way down in the finale's tight first half. Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes (behind Vassell), Luke Kornet (behind Wemby, no overlap) and Tarris Reed Jr. (17 rebounds in 24 minutes; backup C when Kornet sat) round it out.
  • Tobias Harris (calf) was cut some, and ETR said Champagnie could start on opening night.
Who plays together
  • Harper and Castle are staggered to cover the PG minutes. Harper subs out first, Castle takes over, and Harper returns for Castle.
  • Keldon Johnson and Bryant sub in together.
  • Harper can defend 3s and 4s; Castle guarded NAW and Harper took McCollum.
  • Kornet and Wemby are straight swaps.
Pace & shot selection
  • A very good team. ETR expects several blowouts, which would hold the starters' minutes down.

Player by player

PlayerModel GPModel MPGModel minPreseason read
Victor Wembanyama6430.81,975Handles a lot, 30% usage.
Dylan Harper6731.12,088Starting. Big-usage second-year guard.
De'Aaron Fox6531.02,004Starter. Some handling ceded to Harper and Castle.
Stephon Castle6531.22,019Starter, staggered with Harper. Gets to the line.
Devin Vassell6328.51,804Starting wing.
Carter Bryant6517.51,129Sixth man early, squeezed late.
Keldon Johnson6821.41,461Bench, subs in with Bryant.
Harrison Barnes659.2594Backup to Vassell.
Luke Kornet6320.21,265Backup C.
Julian Champagnie7026.41,837Spot starter when Fox sat.

Preseason starting lineups

GameOppStartersOut (ETR's noteworthy inactives)
Oct 8ATLDylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor WembanyamaTobias Harris, De’Aaron Fox
Oct 10PHXDylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor WembanyamaDe’Aaron Fox, Tobias Harris
Oct 12UTAJordan McLaughlin, Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Luke KornetStephon Castle, Dylan Harper, De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Tobias Harris, Carter Bryant
Oct 14PHXDe’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell, Victor WembanyamaKeldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet, Tobias Harris

Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.