SAS Spurs #3 of 30
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
| Player | ETR slot | Pos | Age | GP | MPG | Min | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TO | FG% z | FT% z | FPPG | 9-cat rk | Share % | DPM | Mkt | Rating | O | D | O ctb | D ctb | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | SF1 | G | 20 | 67 | 31.1 | 2,088 | 17.2 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | +0.57 | -0.07 | 33.9 | 73 | 11.2 | +0.64 | -0.28 | +0.18 | +1.28 | -0.64 | +0.72 | -0.36 | +0.10 |
| Stephon Castle | SG1 | G | 21 | 65 | 31.2 | 2,019 | 16.9 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 3.0 | -0.24 | -0.59 | 35.8 | 114 | 10.8 | +1.29 | +2.05 | +1.67 | +1.55 | -0.26 | +0.84 | -0.14 | +0.90 |
| De'Aaron Fox | PG1 | G | 28 | 65 | 31.0 | 2,004 | 16.8 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | -0.09 | -0.04 | 32.5 | 91 | 10.7 | +2.25 | +3.71 | +2.98 | +2.02 | +0.23 | +1.08 | +0.12 | +1.59 |
| Victor Wembanyama | C1 | F | 22 | 64 | 30.8 | 1,975 | 26.6 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 2.7 | +0.76 | +0.89 | 57.7 | 2 | 10.5 | +6.24 | +6.08 | +6.16 | +3.79 | +2.44 | +1.99 | +1.28 | +3.25 |
| Julian Champagnie | SG2 | F | 25 | 70 | 26.4 | 1,837 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | -0.45 | +0.20 | 20.7 | 144 | 9.8 | +1.53 | -0.39 | +0.57 | +0.83 | +0.69 | +0.41 | +0.34 | +0.28 |
| Devin Vassell | PF1 | G | 26 | 63 | 28.5 | 1,804 | 13.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | -0.55 | +0.14 | 25.0 | 123 | 9.6 | +1.16 | +1.28 | +1.22 | +0.62 | +0.54 | +0.30 | +0.26 | +0.59 |
| Tobias HarrisOUT | PF2 | F | 34 | 63 | 25.0 | 1,579 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | -0.04 | +0.41 | 24.2 | 148 | 8.4 | +0.92 | +1.15 | +1.04 | +0.15 | +0.77 | +0.06 | +0.32 | +0.44 |
| Keldon Johnson | SF2 | F | 27 | 68 | 21.4 | 1,461 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | +0.21 | +0.03 | 21.7 | 216 | 7.8 | -0.16 | -0.36 | -0.26 | +0.20 | -0.36 | +0.08 | -0.14 | -0.10 |
| Luke Kornet | C2 | C | 31 | 63 | 20.2 | 1,265 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.5 | +0.44 | -0.02 | 19.7 | 221 | 6.8 | +0.61 | +1.12 | +0.87 | -1.09 | +1.70 | -0.37 | +0.58 | +0.29 |
| Carter Bryant | SF3 | F | 20 | 65 | 17.5 | 1,129 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | -0.48 | -0.12 | 17.4 | 288 | 6.0 | -2.16 | +2.44 | +0.14 | -2.01 | -0.15 | -0.60 | -0.05 | +0.04 |
| Harrison Barnesmpg from ETR FPPG | PF3 | F | 34 | 65 | 9.2 | 594 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 12.4 | – | 3.2 | +0.47 | -0.21 | +0.13 | +0.44 | +0.03 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Tarris Reedmpg from ETR FPPG | C3 | C | 23 | 39 | 7.4 | 289 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.5 | -3.30 | -1.54 | -2.42 | -2.77 | -0.52 | -0.21 | -0.04 | -0.19 |
| Jordan McLaughlinETR depth fill | PG2 | G | 30 | 43 | 5.7 | 249 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.3 | -1.09 | -0.10 | -0.60 | -1.23 | +0.13 | -0.08 | +0.01 | -0.04 |
| Ja'Kobi GillespieETR depth fill | PG3 | G | 22 | 44 | 5.5 | 243 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.3 | -2.63 | -1.61 | -2.12 | -1.44 | -1.19 | -0.09 | -0.08 | -0.14 |
| Maliq BrownETR depth fill | SG3 | F | 22 | 16 | 5.0 | 78 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -2.10 | -1.63 | -1.86 | -1.94 | -0.16 | -0.04 | -0.00 | -0.04 |
| David Jones Garcia | F | 24 | 19 | 4.0 | 75 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -0.68 | -1.59 | -1.14 | -0.51 | -0.17 | -0.01 | -0.00 | -0.02 | |
| Jayden QuaintanceINJ 33g · back 01-01 | F | 19 | 9 | 3.5 | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.2 | -3.20 | – | -3.20 | -2.88 | -0.32 | -0.03 | -0.00 | -0.03 | |
| Team | 18,720 | 111.2 | 42.9 | 26.7 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 100 | +6.22 | +7.65 | +4.12 | +2.10 | +6.94 |
PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.
Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
| Player | Inj | Risk | Out until | Games out | Played | Mon % | ETR % | Avail % | Next % | Exp GP | Season G | ETR G | Mon G | ETR MPG | Mon MPG | Role MPG | Exp min | Monster note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Quaintance | INJ 33g | high | 2027-01-01 | 32 | 0 | 20 | – | 20 | 0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | – | 9 | – | 7.0 | 7.0 | 32 | Injured - knee surgery (Injury) - Est. Return 01/01 |
| Stephon Castle | high | 0 | 4 | 85 | 81 | 83 | 100 | 64.7 | 68.7 | 67 | 66 | 30.5 | 32.0 | 31.3 | 2,019 | |||
| Dylan Harper | med | 0 | 4 | 90 | 82 | 86 | 100 | 67.1 | 71.1 | 68 | 70 | 30.2 | 32.0 | 31.1 | 2,088 | |||
| De'Aaron Fox | high | 0 | 4 | 85 | 81 | 83 | 100 | 64.7 | 68.7 | 67 | 66 | 30.0 | 32.0 | 31.0 | 2,004 | |||
| Victor Wembanyama | high | 0 | 4 | 85 | 80 | 82 | 100 | 64.2 | 68.2 | 66 | 66 | 30.6 | 31.0 | 30.8 | 1,975 | |||
| Devin Vassell | high | 0 | 4 | 85 | 77 | 81 | 100 | 63.2 | 67.2 | 64 | 66 | 29.1 | 28.0 | 28.6 | 1,804 | |||
| Julian Champagnie | med | 0 | 4 | 90 | 88 | 89 | 100 | 69.6 | 73.6 | 73 | 70 | 24.8 | 28.0 | 26.4 | 1,837 | |||
| Tobias Harris | OUT | med | 0 | 0 | 88 | 76 | 82 | 0 | 63.2 | 63.2 | 59 | 69 | 26.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 1,579 | Out - left calf strain (Injury) - Est. Return 10/28 | |
| Keldon Johnson | med | 0 | 4 | 90 | 85 | 87 | 100 | 68.1 | 72.1 | 70 | 70 | 22.9 | 20.0 | 21.4 | 1,461 | |||
| Luke Kornet | high | 0 | 4 | 85 | 76 | 80 | 100 | 62.7 | 66.7 | 63 | 66 | 20.5 | 20.0 | 20.2 | 1,265 | |||
| Carter Bryant | med | 0 | 4 | 90 | 76 | 83 | 100 | 64.7 | 68.7 | 63 | 70 | 21.0 | 14.0 | 17.5 | 1,129 | |||
| Harrison Barnes | low | 0 | 4 | 95 | 70 | 83 | 100 | 64.7 | 68.7 | 59 | 74 | 16.1 | 15.0 | 15.5 | 594 | |||
| Tarris Reed | med | 0 | 3 | 58 | 44 | 51 | 0 | 39.0 | 42.0 | 37 | 45 | 20.7 | 9.0 | 14.8 | 289 | |||
| Jordan McLaughlin | high | 0 | 2 | 55 | – | 55 | 100 | 43.4 | 45.4 | – | 43 | 11.9 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 249 | |||
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie | med | 0 | 2 | 58 | – | 58 | 0 | 44.4 | 46.4 | – | 45 | 11.9 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 243 |
Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.
ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
| Dylan Harper | Gallagher #56 | Astonishing play in the postseason for elite talent, but Spurs may not play him enough |
| Stephon Castle | Gallagher #92 | Will be much better in eight cat, but we'll stuff the stat sheet besides threes; usual SAS minutes concerns |
| De'Aaron Fox | Gallagher #84 | Postseason issues and Dylan Harper looming likely cause draft slide |
| Victor Wembanyama | Gallagher #2 | Blocks did come down some last year as teams refused to go at Wemby; Spurs just won't play him a ton with depth and blowouts |
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
Not on ETR's depth chart: David Jones Garcia, Jayden Quaintance
Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
| Date | Opp (net that game) | Our net | Win % | Result | Our players out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | vs OKC +4.7 | 61% | L 104-116 | ||
| 2026-10-23 | vs HOU +5.2 | 60% | L 110-114 | ||
| 2026-10-24 | @ DAL -4.4 | 74% | W 122-106 | ||
| 2026-10-27 | vs SAC -8.4 | 91% | W 130-103 | ||
| 2026-10-28 | @ UTA -7.5 | +6.8 | 83% | Monster tonight Tobias Harris | |
| 2026-10-31 | vs MIN +2.8 | +5.9 | 67% | ||
| 2026-11-02 | vs UTA -4.7 | +5.9 | 85% | ||
| 2026-11-04 | vs DAL -4.9 | +5.9 | 85% | ||
| 2026-11-06 | @ SAC -8.2 | +5.9 | 83% | ||
| 2026-11-07 | @ POR +2.4 | +5.9 | 54% | ||
| 2026-11-09 | @ PHX -0.8 | +5.9 | 64% | ||
| 2026-11-11 | @ CHI -5.2 | +5.9 | 76% | ||
| 2026-11-13 | vs GSW -0.3 | +5.9 | 75% | ||
| 2026-11-15 | @ UTA -4.4 | +5.9 | 74% | ||
| 2026-11-17 | vs DET +3.8 | +5.9 | 64% | ||
| 2026-11-19 | vs LAC -3.9 | +5.9 | 84% | ||
| 2026-11-21 | vs NOP -4.6 | +5.9 | 85% | ||
| 2026-11-23 | @ SAC -8.4 | +5.9 | 83% | ||
| 2026-11-25 | @ POR +2.4 | +5.9 | 54% | ||
| 2026-11-27 | vs LAL +2.3 | +5.9 | 68% | ||
| 2026-11-29 | vs BOS +6.3 | +5.9 | 56% | ||
| 2026-11-30 | @ MIL -6.5 | +5.9 | 79% | ||
| 2026-12-03 | vs TOR +2.8 | +5.9 | 67% | ||
| 2026-12-13 | vs LAC -3.2 | +5.9 | 82% | ||
| 2026-12-15 | @ CLE +2.3 | +5.9 | 54% | ||
| 2026-12-16 | @ TOR +2.8 | +5.9 | 53% | ||
| 2026-12-18 | vs CHI -5.2 | +5.9 | 86% | ||
| 2026-12-20 | @ NOP -4.6 | +5.9 | 74% | ||
| 2026-12-21 | vs MIL -6.5 | +5.9 | 88% | ||
| 2026-12-23 | @ BKN -5.7 | +5.9 | 77% | ||
| 2026-12-25 | @ NYK +5.0 | +5.9 | 46% | ||
| 2026-12-27 | vs ATL +0.8 | +5.9 | 72% | ||
| 2026-12-29 | @ MEM -3.4 | +5.9 | 71% | ||
| 2026-12-31 | @ CHA -0.2 | +5.9 | 62% | ||
| 2027-01-01 | @ WAS -5.1 | +5.9 | 76% | ||
| 2027-01-03 | @ MIN +2.8 | +5.9 | 52% | ||
| 2027-01-06 | vs IND -0.0 | +5.9 | 74% | ||
| 2027-01-08 | vs MEM -3.4 | +5.9 | 82% | ||
| 2027-01-10 | @ ATL +0.8 | +5.9 | 59% | ||
| 2027-01-14 | vs NOP -4.6 | +5.9 | 85% | ||
| 2027-01-17 | @ NOP -4.6 | +5.9 | 74% | ||
| 2027-01-20 | vs MIA +0.5 | +5.9 | 73% | ||
| 2027-01-22 | vs MIN +2.8 | +5.9 | 67% | ||
| 2027-01-24 | vs POR +2.4 | +5.9 | 68% | ||
| 2027-01-26 | vs HOU +5.3 | +5.9 | 59% | ||
| 2027-01-27 | vs CHA -0.2 | +5.9 | 75% | ||
| 2027-01-30 | @ GSW -0.2 | +5.9 | 62% | ||
| 2027-02-01 | @ GSW +0.1 | +5.9 | 61% | ||
| 2027-02-02 | @ LAC -3.2 | +5.9 | 71% | ||
| 2027-02-04 | vs ORL +1.0 | +5.9 | 72% | ||
| 2027-02-06 | vs LAL +2.3 | +5.9 | 68% | ||
| 2027-02-09 | @ DAL -4.3 | +5.9 | 74% | ||
| 2027-02-11 | @ OKC +4.7 | +5.9 | 46% | ||
| 2027-02-13 | @ ORL +1.0 | +5.9 | 58% | ||
| 2027-02-15 | @ MIA +0.5 | +5.9 | 60% | ||
| 2027-02-17 | @ MEM -3.4 | +5.9 | 71% | ||
| 2027-02-18 | @ MIN +2.8 | +5.9 | 52% | ||
| 2027-02-26 | vs MEM -3.4 | +5.9 | 82% | ||
| 2027-02-28 | vs DEN +3.4 | +5.9 | 65% | ||
| 2027-03-03 | @ DEN +3.4 | +5.9 | 50% | ||
| 2027-03-05 | @ HOU +5.3 | +5.9 | 45% | ||
| 2027-03-07 | vs NYK +5.0 | +5.9 | 60% | ||
| 2027-03-09 | vs WAS -5.1 | +5.9 | 86% | ||
| 2027-03-11 | vs PHI +2.5 | +5.9 | 68% | ||
| 2027-03-14 | @ OKC +4.7 | +5.9 | 46% | ||
| 2027-03-16 | @ HOU +5.3 | +5.9 | 45% | ||
| 2027-03-18 | vs BKN -5.7 | +5.9 | 87% | ||
| 2027-03-19 | vs DAL -4.3 | +5.9 | 84% | ||
| 2027-03-21 | @ PHI +2.5 | +5.9 | 54% | ||
| 2027-03-24 | @ BOS +6.3 | +5.9 | 41% | ||
| 2027-03-25 | @ IND +0.0 | +5.9 | 61% | ||
| 2027-03-27 | @ DET +3.8 | +5.9 | 49% | ||
| 2027-03-29 | vs PHX -0.5 | +5.9 | 76% | ||
| 2027-03-31 | vs PHX -0.5 | +5.9 | 76% | ||
| 2027-04-02 | @ LAC -3.0 | +5.9 | 70% | ||
| 2027-04-04 | @ LAL +2.3 | +5.9 | 54% | ||
| 2027-04-06 | vs SAC -8.4 | +5.9 | 91% | ||
| 2027-04-07 | vs CLE +2.3 | +5.9 | 68% | ||
| 2027-04-09 | vs DEN +3.4 | +5.9 | 65% | ||
| 2027-04-11 | vs POR +2.8 | +5.9 | 67% |
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)
Bottom line: Mitch Johnson will start Dylan Harper with Fox, Castle, Vassell and Wemby, a big downhill lineup that squeezes everyone's usage. The rotation is tight, and ETR expects blowouts to trim minutes.
- Dylan Harper: primary handler while Fox was out. With Fox back he lost some handling but still took 11 shots in 22.4 minutes.
- Victor Wembanyama: brings the ball up a lot and led the team in first-half usage (30.6%) in one game.
- Stephon Castle: 15 FTAs in one game. He split handling with Harper.
- De'Aaron Fox took back some handling in his return.
- ETR: Harper in the starting five lowers the upside of Fox, Castle, Vassell and even Wemby.
- Starters: Fox, Castle, Harper, Devin Vassell, Wembanyama. Julian Champagnie started when Fox was out.
- Bench: Carter Bryant was the sixth man (subbing for Fox) but slid way down in the finale's tight first half. Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes (behind Vassell), Luke Kornet (behind Wemby, no overlap) and Tarris Reed Jr. (17 rebounds in 24 minutes; backup C when Kornet sat) round it out.
- Tobias Harris (calf) was cut some, and ETR said Champagnie could start on opening night.
- Harper and Castle are staggered to cover the PG minutes. Harper subs out first, Castle takes over, and Harper returns for Castle.
- Keldon Johnson and Bryant sub in together.
- Harper can defend 3s and 4s; Castle guarded NAW and Harper took McCollum.
- Kornet and Wemby are straight swaps.
- A very good team. ETR expects several blowouts, which would hold the starters' minutes down.
Player by player
| Player | Model GP | Model MPG | Model min | Preseason read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 64 | 30.8 | 1,975 | Handles a lot, 30% usage. |
| Dylan Harper | 67 | 31.1 | 2,088 | Starting. Big-usage second-year guard. |
| De'Aaron Fox | 65 | 31.0 | 2,004 | Starter. Some handling ceded to Harper and Castle. |
| Stephon Castle | 65 | 31.2 | 2,019 | Starter, staggered with Harper. Gets to the line. |
| Devin Vassell | 63 | 28.5 | 1,804 | Starting wing. |
| Carter Bryant | 65 | 17.5 | 1,129 | Sixth man early, squeezed late. |
| Keldon Johnson | 68 | 21.4 | 1,461 | Bench, subs in with Bryant. |
| Harrison Barnes | 65 | 9.2 | 594 | Backup to Vassell. |
| Luke Kornet | 63 | 20.2 | 1,265 | Backup C. |
| Julian Champagnie | 70 | 26.4 | 1,837 | Spot starter when Fox sat. |
Preseason starting lineups
| Game | Opp | Starters | Out (ETR's noteworthy inactives) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | ATL | Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama | Tobias Harris, De’Aaron Fox |
| Oct 10 | PHX | Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama | De’Aaron Fox, Tobias Harris |
| Oct 12 | UTA | Jordan McLaughlin, Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet | Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Tobias Harris, Carter Bryant |
| Oct 14 | PHX | De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama | Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet, Tobias Harris |
Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.