DAL Mavericks #23 of 30
Projected wins
31.1
FanDuel 32.5 (o-140 / u+115) · record 2-2
Net rating
-4.36
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off -2.19 · def -1.93
Next game / full strength
-4.79 / -4.32
2026-10-28 vs OKC (Monster daily minutes) · out: Santi Aldama; Naji Marshall; Dereck Lively II; Sergio De Larrea
DARKO vs market
-5.46 / -3.27
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 28.4 / 33.9
Minutes covered
18,720
of 18,720 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
18
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
+0.17
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
94% ETR
1% MPG from ETR FPPG · 3% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
115 pts
42 reb · 25 ast · 11.5 3pm · 94% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
| Player | ETR slot | Pos | Age | GP | MPG | Min | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TO | FG% z | FT% z | FPPG | 9-cat rk | Share % | DPM | Mkt | Rating | O | D | O ctb | D ctb | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | SF1 | F | 19 | 67 | 34.1 | 2,291 | 24.5 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.6 | +0.27 | +0.84 | 44.7 | 10 | 12.2 | -0.02 | +0.16 | +0.07 | +0.69 | -0.72 | +0.42 | -0.44 | +0.04 |
| PJ Washington | PF1 | F | 28 | 62 | 30.0 | 1,849 | 13.8 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -0.51 | -0.44 | 27.8 | 142 | 9.9 | -1.38 | -0.35 | -0.87 | -1.27 | -0.11 | -0.63 | -0.05 | -0.43 |
| Max Christie | SF2 | G | 23 | 68 | 27.3 | 1,846 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | -0.59 | +0.30 | 19.6 | 204 | 9.9 | -1.32 | -2.43 | -1.88 | -0.47 | -0.85 | -0.23 | -0.42 | -0.93 |
| Naji MarshallQ | PG2 | F | 28 | 66 | 27.2 | 1,800 | 13.0 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | +0.14 | -0.06 | 24.4 | 194 | 9.6 | -1.32 | -0.78 | -1.05 | -0.51 | -0.81 | -0.24 | -0.39 | -0.50 |
| Kyrie Irving | PG1 | G | 34 | 53 | 33.3 | 1,759 | 25.8 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | -0.26 | +1.36 | 42.6 | 37 | 9.4 | +2.28 | +4.34 | +3.31 | +2.59 | -0.30 | +1.22 | -0.14 | +1.56 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | SG1 | F | 21 | 63 | 27.3 | 1,725 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | -0.22 | -0.30 | 22.3 | 185 | 9.2 | -1.86 | -1.48 | -1.67 | -1.47 | -0.40 | -0.67 | -0.18 | -0.77 |
| Morez Johnson | C1 | F | 20 | 66 | 22.5 | 1,477 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | +1.04 | -0.11 | 25.7 | 162 | 7.9 | -3.23 | -2.10 | -2.67 | -2.37 | -0.86 | -0.94 | -0.34 | -1.05 |
| Daniel Gafford | C2 | F | 28 | 60 | 20.6 | 1,231 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | +1.26 | -0.76 | 25.1 | 171 | 6.6 | +0.23 | -0.05 | +0.09 | -0.69 | +0.93 | -0.23 | +0.31 | +0.03 |
| Santi AldamaINJ 5g · back 11-08 | PF2 | F | 25 | 53 | 21.0 | 1,122 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | -0.18 | -0.44 | 25.1 | 173 | 6.0 | +0.16 | -0.86 | -0.35 | +0.41 | -0.25 | +0.12 | -0.07 | -0.10 |
| Sergio De LarreaQ | SG2 | F | 20 | 57 | 18.6 | 1,058 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | -0.29 | +0.29 | 16.6 | 265 | 5.7 | -2.92 | -1.05 | -1.99 | -1.95 | -0.97 | -0.56 | -0.28 | -0.56 |
| Marcus Sasser | PG3 | G | 26 | 56 | 18.4 | 1,033 | 9.0 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | -0.51 | +0.19 | 17.7 | 266 | 5.5 | -0.23 | -1.51 | -0.87 | +0.04 | -0.27 | +0.01 | -0.07 | -0.24 |
| Dereck Lively IIINJ 8g · back 11-14 | C1 | C | 22 | 38 | 12.7 | 487 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | +0.93 | -0.70 | 24.0 | 196 | 2.6 | +0.99 | -0.00 | +0.49 | -0.33 | +1.32 | -0.04 | +0.17 | +0.06 |
| Walter Claytonmpg from ETR FPPG | G | 23 | 29 | 9.3 | 267 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.4 | -1.12 | -2.00 | -1.56 | -0.40 | -0.71 | -0.03 | -0.05 | -0.11 | |
| Caleb MartinD · back 10-30ETR depth fill | SF4 | F | 31 | 39 | 6.6 | 256 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.4 | -2.47 | -0.18 | -1.33 | -3.05 | +0.58 | -0.21 | +0.04 | -0.09 |
| Moussa Cisse | C | 24 | 43 | 5.3 | 229 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.2 | -0.39 | -2.25 | -1.32 | -1.34 | +0.96 | -0.08 | +0.06 | -0.08 | |
| Tarik BiberovicD · back 10-30ETR depth fill | SF3 | F | 25 | 21 | 5.9 | 125 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.7 | -2.36 | – | -2.36 | -1.72 | -0.64 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.08 |
| Jett HowardETR depth fill | SF6 | G | 23 | 17 | 5.3 | 89 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.5 | -1.81 | -2.52 | -2.17 | -0.69 | -1.12 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.05 |
| Tobi LawalETR depth fill | SF5 | F | 23 | 16 | 4.7 | 74 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -2.43 | -1.67 | -2.05 | -1.94 | -0.49 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| Team | 18,720 | 114.9 | 42.1 | 24.8 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 100 | -4.14 | -2.58 | -2.21 | -1.93 | -3.35 |
PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.
Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
| Player | Inj | Risk | Out until | Games out | Played | Mon % | ETR % | Avail % | Next % | Exp GP | Season G | ETR G | Mon G | ETR MPG | Mon MPG | Role MPG | Exp min | Monster note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dereck Lively II | INJ 8g | high | 2026-11-14 | 8 | 0 | 59 | 51 | 55 | 0 | 38.4 | 38.4 | 42 | 41 | 22.2 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 487 | Injured - foot surgery (Injury) - Est. Return 11/14 |
| Santi Aldama | INJ 5g | high | 2026-11-08 | 5 | 0 | 78 | 68 | 73 | 0 | 53.4 | 53.4 | 56 | 57 | 24.6 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 1,122 | Injured - right knee surgery (Injury) - Est. Return 11/08 |
| Caleb Martin | D | high | 2026-10-30 | 1 | 0 | 51 | – | 51 | 0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | – | 39 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 256 | Doubtful - right thumb sprain (Injury) - Est. Return 10/30 - status for next game not specified yet |
| Tarik Biberovic | D | med | 2026-10-30 | 1 | 0 | 27 | – | 27 | 0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | – | 21 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 125 | Doubtful - right heel bursitis (Injury) - Est. Return 10/30 - status for next game not specified yet |
| Cooper Flagg | med | 0 | 3 | 88 | 83 | 86 | 100 | 67.1 | 70.1 | 68 | 69 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 2,291 | |||
| Kyrie Irving | high | 0 | 3 | 78 | 58 | 68 | 50 | 52.8 | 55.8 | 48 | 61 | 34.4 | 32.0 | 33.2 | 1,759 | |||
| PJ Washington | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 74 | 79 | 100 | 61.7 | 65.7 | 62 | 65 | 29.6 | 30.0 | 29.8 | 1,849 | |||
| Max Christie | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 85 | 86 | 100 | 67.6 | 71.6 | 70 | 69 | 27.4 | 27.0 | 27.2 | 1,846 | |||
| Naji Marshall | Q | med | 0 | 3 | 88 | 83 | 86 | 0 | 66.1 | 69.1 | 68 | 69 | 26.3 | 28.0 | 27.1 | 1,800 | Questionable - illness - status for next game not specified yet | |
| Zaccharie Risacher | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 73 | 81 | 100 | 63.2 | 67.2 | 61 | 69 | 25.3 | 29.0 | 27.1 | 1,725 | |||
| Morez Johnson | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 80 | 84 | 100 | 65.7 | 69.7 | 66 | 69 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 22.5 | 1,477 | |||
| Daniel Gafford | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 69 | 76 | 100 | 59.7 | 63.7 | 58 | 65 | 21.0 | 20.0 | 20.5 | 1,231 | |||
| Sergio De Larrea | Q | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 59 | 74 | 0 | 56.8 | 60.8 | 50 | 69 | 20.2 | 17.0 | 18.6 | 1,058 | Questionable - right knee strain (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet | |
| Marcus Sasser | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 55 | 72 | 100 | 56.3 | 60.3 | 47 | 69 | 18.5 | 18.0 | 18.2 | 1,033 | |||
| Walter Clayton | med | 0 | 3 | 27 | 45 | 36 | 100 | 28.6 | 31.6 | 38 | 21 | 21.2 | 12.0 | 16.6 | 267 | |||
| Jett Howard | med | 0 | 1 | 20 | – | 20 | 100 | 16.8 | 17.8 | – | 16 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 89 | |||
| Moussa Cisse | med | 0 | 3 | 56 | – | 56 | 0 | 43.4 | 46.4 | – | 44 | – | 10.0 | 10.0 | 229 |
Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.
ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
| Cooper Flagg | Gallagher #12 | Handed the keys to the kingdom post-break en route to ROY and would have to carry insane usage without Kyrie |
| PJ Washington | Gallagher #145 | Curious to see how he fits with new coaching staff; could see a trade boost his value, too |
| Kyrie Irving | Gallagher #47 | Trade rumors will be there, but should be healthy from March 2025 ACL tear |
| Zaccharie Risacher | Gallagher #150 | The Mavs traded for him for a reason and maybe Dusty May can get more out of him |
| Morez Johnson | Gallagher #125 | Might be a slow start but a Gafford deal should free Morez; Dusty May viewed as elite talent evaluator |
| Dereck Lively II | Depth chart | Doubtful to be ready for the start of the season |
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Kyrie Irving
33.3 mpg × 53 g = 1,759
Naji Marshall
27.2 mpg × 66 g = 1,800
Marcus Sasser
18.4 mpg × 56 g = 1,033
SG
Zaccharie Risacher
27.3 mpg × 63 g = 1,725
Sergio De Larrea
18.6 mpg × 57 g = 1,058
SF
Cooper Flagg
34.1 mpg × 67 g = 2,291
Max Christie
27.3 mpg × 68 g = 1,846
Tarik Biberovic
5.9 mpg × 21 g = 125
Caleb Martin
6.6 mpg × 39 g = 256
Tobi Lawal 2W
4.7 mpg × 16 g = 74
Jett Howard
5.3 mpg × 17 g = 89
PF
PJ Washington
30.0 mpg × 62 g = 1,849
Santi Aldama
21.0 mpg × 53 g = 1,122
C
Morez Johnson
22.5 mpg × 66 g = 1,477
Daniel Gafford
20.6 mpg × 60 g = 1,231
Dereck Lively II IR
12.7 mpg × 38 g = 487
Not on ETR's depth chart: Walter Clayton, Moussa Cisse
Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
| Date | Opp (net that game) | Our net | Win % | Result | Our players out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | @ HOU +5.2 | 17% | L 110-128 | ||
| 2026-10-23 | @ IND -0.1 | 30% | W 121-105 | ||
| 2026-10-24 | vs SAS +5.9 | 26% | L 106-122 | ||
| 2026-10-26 | @ MIA +0.5 | 28% | W 113-109 | ||
| 2026-10-28 | vs OKC +3.3 | -4.8 | 32% | Monster tonight Santi Aldama; Naji Marshall; Dereck Lively II; Sergio De Larrea | |
| 2026-10-30 | vs HOU +4.4 | -4.9 | 29% | Santi Aldama; Dereck Lively II | |
| 2026-11-02 | vs SAC -8.6 | -4.9 | 69% | Santi Aldama; Dereck Lively II | |
| 2026-11-04 | @ SAS +5.9 | -4.9 | 15% | Santi Aldama; Dereck Lively II | |
| 2026-11-06 | vs UTA -4.7 | -4.9 | 57% | Santi Aldama; Dereck Lively II | |
| 2026-11-08 | vs BKN -5.7 | -4.6 | 61% | Dereck Lively II | |
| 2026-11-09 | vs IND -0.0 | -4.6 | 43% | Dereck Lively II | |
| 2026-11-12 | @ MIN +2.8 | -4.6 | 22% | Dereck Lively II | |
| 2026-11-14 | @ CLE +2.3 | -4.3 | 24% | ||
| 2026-11-15 | @ BOS +6.3 | -4.3 | 15% | ||
| 2026-11-18 | vs GSW -0.3 | -4.3 | 45% | ||
| 2026-11-21 | vs LAC -4.4 | -4.3 | 58% | ||
| 2026-11-22 | @ UTA -4.4 | -4.3 | 43% | ||
| 2026-11-24 | @ DEN +3.4 | -4.3 | 21% | ||
| 2026-11-27 | @ PHX -0.8 | -4.3 | 32% | ||
| 2026-11-30 | vs BOS +6.3 | -4.3 | 25% | ||
| 2026-12-02 | vs ORL +1.0 | -4.3 | 40% | ||
| 2026-12-14 | vs MIL -6.5 | -4.3 | 64% | ||
| 2026-12-16 | @ BKN -5.7 | -4.3 | 47% | ||
| 2026-12-17 | @ PHI +2.5 | -4.3 | 23% | ||
| 2026-12-19 | vs CHI -5.2 | -4.3 | 60% | ||
| 2026-12-22 | @ GSW -0.3 | -4.3 | 31% | ||
| 2026-12-23 | @ SAC -8.4 | -4.3 | 56% | ||
| 2026-12-26 | vs PHX -0.8 | -4.3 | 46% | ||
| 2026-12-29 | vs MIA +0.5 | -4.3 | 42% | ||
| 2027-01-01 | @ HOU +5.3 | -4.3 | 17% | ||
| 2027-01-02 | @ ATL +0.8 | -4.3 | 28% | ||
| 2027-01-04 | @ NOP -4.6 | -4.3 | 44% | ||
| 2027-01-07 | vs POR +2.4 | -4.3 | 36% | ||
| 2027-01-08 | vs PHX -0.8 | -4.3 | 46% | ||
| 2027-01-10 | @ MEM -3.4 | -4.3 | 40% | ||
| 2027-01-12 | @ MEM -3.4 | -4.3 | 40% | ||
| 2027-01-14 | @ DET +3.8 | -4.3 | 20% | ||
| 2027-01-16 | @ NYK +5.0 | -4.3 | 18% | ||
| 2027-01-18 | vs OKC +4.7 | -4.3 | 30% | ||
| 2027-01-19 | vs CHA -0.2 | -4.3 | 44% | ||
| 2027-01-22 | @ NOP -4.6 | -4.3 | 44% | ||
| 2027-01-23 | vs CLE +2.3 | -4.3 | 36% | ||
| 2027-01-25 | @ CHI -5.2 | -4.3 | 45% | ||
| 2027-01-27 | @ TOR +2.8 | -4.3 | 22% | ||
| 2027-01-29 | vs DET +3.8 | -4.3 | 32% | ||
| 2027-01-31 | vs HOU +5.3 | -4.3 | 28% | ||
| 2027-02-02 | vs TOR +2.8 | -4.3 | 35% | ||
| 2027-02-04 | @ DEN +3.4 | -4.3 | 21% | ||
| 2027-02-06 | vs UTA -4.4 | -4.3 | 58% | ||
| 2027-02-07 | vs LAC -3.2 | -4.3 | 54% | ||
| 2027-02-09 | vs SAS +5.9 | -4.3 | 26% | ||
| 2027-02-11 | vs POR +2.4 | -4.3 | 36% | ||
| 2027-02-13 | @ CHA -0.2 | -4.3 | 30% | ||
| 2027-02-15 | vs PHI +2.5 | -4.3 | 36% | ||
| 2027-02-17 | @ ORL +1.0 | -4.3 | 27% | ||
| 2027-02-25 | @ GSW +1.2 | -4.3 | 27% | ||
| 2027-02-26 | @ POR +2.8 | -4.3 | 22% | ||
| 2027-02-28 | vs LAL +2.3 | -4.3 | 36% | ||
| 2027-03-02 | vs GSW +1.2 | -4.3 | 40% | ||
| 2027-03-04 | vs NYK +5.0 | -4.3 | 29% | ||
| 2027-03-08 | @ OKC +4.7 | -4.3 | 18% | ||
| 2027-03-09 | vs MEM -3.4 | -4.3 | 54% | ||
| 2027-03-11 | vs WAS -5.1 | -4.3 | 60% | ||
| 2027-03-13 | vs NOP -4.6 | -4.3 | 58% | ||
| 2027-03-15 | vs ATL +0.8 | -4.3 | 41% | ||
| 2027-03-17 | @ OKC +4.7 | -4.3 | 18% | ||
| 2027-03-19 | @ SAS +5.9 | -4.3 | 16% | ||
| 2027-03-21 | @ LAL +2.3 | -4.3 | 24% | ||
| 2027-03-22 | @ LAC -3.0 | -4.3 | 39% | ||
| 2027-03-24 | @ MIN +2.8 | -4.3 | 22% | ||
| 2027-03-26 | vs NOP -4.6 | -4.3 | 58% | ||
| 2027-03-28 | @ WAS -5.1 | -4.3 | 45% | ||
| 2027-03-29 | @ MIL -6.5 | -4.3 | 50% | ||
| 2027-03-31 | vs DEN +3.4 | -4.3 | 33% | ||
| 2027-04-02 | vs SAC -8.4 | -4.3 | 70% | ||
| 2027-04-04 | vs MIN +2.8 | -4.3 | 35% | ||
| 2027-04-06 | @ LAL +2.3 | -4.3 | 24% | ||
| 2027-04-07 | @ POR +2.8 | -4.3 | 22% | ||
| 2027-04-09 | @ SAC -8.4 | -4.3 | 56% | ||
| 2027-04-11 | vs MEM -3.4 | -4.3 | 54% |
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)
Bottom line: Dusty May's Mavs led the preseason in three-point rate and pushed tempo. Kyrie Irving is back and will play a lot, and Gafford starts at center with Morez Johnson Jr. behind him.
Usage & ball-handling
- Cooper Flagg: 19/6/4 in 19 minutes through Houston's double-teams, with some handling. His usage settled at 25.4% once Kyrie and Washington were back.
- Kyrie Irving: 17/2/3 in 22 minutes (16.5 in the first half) in his debut, and the offense looked different with him. He's healthy after a calf issue during rehab; May will play him a lot and he may not miss many back-to-backs.
- Naji Marshall: primary handler when Kyrie sat, but shot 1-of-5 from three. He goes to the bench with Kyrie back.
- Sergio de Larrea: primary handler in his minutes (3 assists in 10 first-half minutes). He could cut into Marshall's handling.
Minutes & rotation
- Expected starters: Kyrie, Zaccharie Risacher, Flagg, PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford. Risacher started over Max Christie on Oct 11 and has the edge at SG.
- Center: Gafford started the finale with Morez Johnson Jr. behind him. Earlier, Morez started over Gafford in his first game after being cleared for 5-on-5, and Gafford played only 10.8 first-half minutes when he started.
- Bench swaps: Marshall for Kyrie, Caleb Martin for Washington, Dwight Powell for Gafford, Christie for Risacher.
- De Larrea: May is "very, very pleased." He was ahead of Marcus Sasser in the finale and is likely in the opening-night rotation.
- Out or limited: Santi Aldama (still out, ETR cut), Dereck Lively II. Moussa Cisse rolled his ankle (held out as a precaution). Powell isn't a lock to make the team because Tarik Biberovic has fans.
- ETR moves: Risacher's projection boosted. Morez and Aldama trimmed for limited camps. Gafford up.
Who plays together
- Marshall subs for Kyrie with plenty of overlap, so two-handler looks are common.
- Kyrie is staggered away from Flagg so one creator is always on the floor.
- Small lineup: Kyrie, Marshall, Christie, Flagg, Washington. It played 3.5 minutes to open the second quarter and 29 seconds to close the half.
Pace & shot selection
- First in 3PA per 100 in the preseason, with the fourth-lowest halfcourt frequency (lots of transition).
- 51 3PA vs HOU (preseason high), assists on 77.3% of makes, 24 fastbreak points. May: "Our shot diet, our shot profile, has to improve."
Player by player
| Player | Model GP | Model MPG | Model min | Preseason read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 67 | 34.1 | 2,291 | No. 1 option, about 25% usage, some handling. |
| Kyrie Irving | 53 | 33.3 | 1,759 | Back healthy. Heavy minutes expected. |
| P.J. Washington | 62 | 30.0 | 1,849 | Starting four. |
| Daniel Gafford | 60 | 20.6 | 1,231 | Starting C in the finale. Minutes capped when he starts. |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 66 | 22.5 | 1,477 | C2 now. Started two early games. |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 63 | 27.3 | 1,725 | Likely starting SG. Crashes the glass (team-high 8 rebounds in his debut). |
| Max Christie | 68 | 27.3 | 1,846 | Lost the starting spot to Risacher. Bench wing. |
| Naji Marshall | 66 | 27.2 | 1,800 | Backup handler, overlaps with Kyrie. |
| Sergio de Larrea | 57 | 18.6 | 1,058 | Rookie handler, likely in the opening-night rotation. |
| Caleb Martin | 39 | 6.6 | 256 | Backup to Washington. |
Preseason starting lineups
| Game | Opp | Starters | Out (ETR's noteworthy inactives) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | HOU | Naji Marshall, Zaccharie Risacher, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Morez Johnson Jr. | Kyrie Irving, PJ Washington, Dereck Lively, Marcus Sasser, Santi Aldama |
| Oct 11 | HOU | Kyrie Irving, Zaccharie Risacher, Cooper Flagg, PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford | Morez Johnson Jr., Santi Aldama, Dereck Lively II, Marcus Sasser |
| Oct 14 | NOP | Naji Marshall, Max Christie, Zaccharie Risacher, PJ Washington, Moussa Cissi | Cooper Flagg, Kyrie Irving, Morez Johnson Jr., Daniel Gafford, Jett Howard, Marcus Sasser, Santi Aldama |
Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.