DEN Nuggets #7 of 30
Projected wins
48.8
FanDuel 47.5 (o-110 / u-115) · record 1-2
Net rating
+3.44
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off +5.29 · def -0.51
Next game / full strength
+4.09 / +3.43
2026-10-28 @ NOP (Monster daily minutes) · out: Spencer Jones; Cameron Johnson; Julian Strawther; Alpha Diallo
DARKO vs market
+3.44 / +3.45
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 48.7 / 49.0
Minutes covered
18,960
of 18,960 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
17
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
-0.16
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
71% ETR
22% MPG from ETR FPPG · 5% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
92 pts
31 reb · 23 ast · 8.8 3pm · 71% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
| Player | ETR slot | Pos | Age | GP | MPG | Min | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TO | FG% z | FT% z | FPPG | 9-cat rk | Share % | DPM | Mkt | Rating | O | D | O ctb | D ctb | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | C1 | C | 31 | 68 | 35.5 | 2,422 | 27.4 | 13.1 | 9.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3.5 | +2.28 | +0.66 | 60.9 | 1 | 12.8 | +7.15 | +8.09 | +7.62 | +5.13 | +2.02 | +3.29 | +1.29 | +4.87 |
| Jamal Murray | PG1 | G | 29 | 66 | 35.7 | 2,347 | 23.6 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -0.30 | +0.97 | 40.7 | 18 | 12.4 | +3.44 | +1.79 | +2.62 | +4.05 | -0.61 | +2.51 | -0.38 | +1.62 |
| Christian Braun | SG1 | G | 25 | 66 | 31.1 | 2,056 | 12.4 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | +0.54 | -0.07 | 24.3 | 147 | 10.8 | +0.56 | -1.01 | -0.23 | +0.68 | -0.12 | +0.37 | -0.06 | -0.12 |
| Cameron JohnsonQ | SF1 | F | 30 | 61 | 31.6 | 1,916 | 14.0 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | -0.05 | +0.35 | 25.7 | 104 | 10.1 | +0.61 | +1.38 | +1.00 | +0.68 | -0.07 | +0.34 | -0.03 | +0.50 |
| DeMar DeRozan | SF2 | G | 37 | 68 | 26.5 | 1,804 | 17.1 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | +0.17 | +1.08 | 28.1 | 125 | 9.5 | -2.01 | +0.10 | -0.96 | -0.09 | -1.92 | -0.04 | -0.91 | -0.46 |
| Aaron GordonP | PF1 | F | 31 | 55 | 28.5 | 1,561 | 16.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | +0.42 | -0.32 | 29.2 | 129 | 8.2 | +2.77 | +2.60 | +2.69 | +2.38 | +0.39 | +0.98 | +0.16 | +1.11 |
| Spencer JonesD · back 10-30 | PF2 | F | 25 | 65 | 21.0 | 1,364 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | -0.00 | -0.15 | 15.7 | 263 | 7.2 | -1.30 | -1.29 | -1.29 | -1.64 | +0.34 | -0.59 | +0.12 | -0.47 |
| Marvin Bagley IIImpg from ETR FPPG | C2 | F | 27 | 61 | 18.6 | 1,138 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 18.0 | – | 6.0 | -1.15 | -3.18 | -2.17 | -0.87 | -0.28 | -0.26 | -0.09 | -0.65 |
| Trevon Brazilempg from ETR FPPG | C3 | F | 23 | 59 | 18.8 | 1,102 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 13.6 | – | 5.8 | -1.71 | -2.47 | -2.09 | -1.25 | -0.47 | -0.36 | -0.14 | -0.61 |
| Alpha DialloQmpg from ETR FPPG | SF3 | F | 29 | 59 | 17.8 | 1,056 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 13.8 | – | 5.6 | -1.77 | -1.43 | -1.60 | -1.63 | -0.15 | -0.46 | -0.04 | -0.45 |
| Tyus Jonesmpg from ETR FPPG | PG2 | G | 30 | 61 | 9.5 | 584 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11.8 | – | 3.1 | -2.02 | +0.60 | -0.71 | -1.39 | -0.63 | -0.22 | -0.10 | -0.11 |
| Julian StrawtherINJ 28g · back 12-31ETR depth fill | SG2 | G | 24 | 40 | 13.1 | 523 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.8 | -1.43 | -1.35 | -1.39 | -0.18 | -1.25 | -0.02 | -0.18 | -0.19 |
| Cam Whitmorempg from ETR FPPG | SG3 | F | 22 | 24 | 15.8 | 383 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.0 | -1.63 | -1.81 | -1.72 | -0.35 | -1.28 | -0.04 | -0.13 | -0.17 |
| Ryan Nembhard | G | 23 | 44 | 6.6 | 292 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.5 | -1.89 | -3.57 | -2.73 | -0.93 | -0.96 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.21 | |
| Zeke NnajiETR depth fill | C4 | F | 25 | 21 | 8.4 | 174 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.9 | -1.02 | -2.55 | -1.79 | -2.13 | +1.10 | -0.10 | +0.05 | -0.08 |
| DaRon Holmes IIETR depth fill | PF3 | F | 24 | 19 | 7.7 | 145 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.8 | +0.41 | -3.29 | -1.44 | +0.14 | +0.27 | +0.01 | +0.01 | -0.06 |
| Bryce HopkinsETR depth fill | SF4 | F | 24 | 17 | 5.6 | 93 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.5 | -2.72 | -2.60 | -2.66 | -2.03 | -0.69 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| Team | 18,960 | 92.1 | 31.0 | 22.6 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 100 | +4.79 | +4.16 | +5.29 | -0.50 | +4.46 |
PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.
Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
| Player | Inj | Risk | Out until | Games out | Played | Mon % | ETR % | Avail % | Next % | Exp GP | Season G | ETR G | Mon G | ETR MPG | Mon MPG | Role MPG | Exp min | Monster note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Strawther | INJ 28g | high | 2026-12-31 | 28 | 0 | 78 | – | 78 | 0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | – | 40 | 12.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 523 | Injured - knee (Injury) - Est. Return 12/31 |
| Spencer Jones | D | med | 2026-10-30 | 1 | 0 | 88 | 78 | 83 | 0 | 64.9 | 64.9 | 64 | 69 | 23.8 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 1,364 | Doubtful - bilateral hamstring injury management (Injury) - Est. Return 10/30 - status for next game not specified yet |
| Jamal Murray | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 77 | 83 | 100 | 65.7 | 68.7 | 64 | 70 | 35.5 | 36.0 | 35.7 | 2,347 | |||
| Nikola Jokic | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 84 | 86 | 100 | 68.1 | 71.1 | 69 | 70 | 35.1 | 36.0 | 35.6 | 2,422 | |||
| Cameron Johnson | Q | high | 0 | 1 | 84 | 72 | 78 | 0 | 60.7 | 61.7 | 58 | 66 | 31.1 | 32.0 | 31.6 | 1,916 | Questionable - right ankle sprain (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet | |
| Christian Braun | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 78 | 84 | 100 | 66.2 | 69.2 | 65 | 70 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 2,056 | |||
| Aaron Gordon | P | high | 0 | 3 | 70 | 68 | 69 | 100 | 54.8 | 57.8 | 57 | 55 | 29.0 | 28.0 | 28.5 | 1,561 | Probable - Other - status for next game not specified yet | |
| DeMar DeRozan | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 84 | 86 | 100 | 68.1 | 71.1 | 69 | 70 | 27.9 | 25.0 | 26.4 | 1,804 | |||
| Trevon Brazile | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 60 | 74 | 100 | 58.8 | 61.8 | 50 | 70 | 17.4 | 20.0 | 18.7 | 1,102 | |||
| Marvin Bagley III | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 66 | 77 | 100 | 61.2 | 64.2 | 55 | 70 | 21.4 | 16.0 | 18.7 | 1,138 | |||
| Alpha Diallo | Q | med | 0 | 1 | 89 | 63 | 76 | 0 | 59.2 | 60.2 | 51 | 70 | 17.7 | 18.0 | 17.8 | 1,056 | Questionable - right wrist sprain/personal reasons (Personal) - status for next game not specified yet | |
| Cam Whitmore | high | 0 | 2 | 24 | 35 | 30 | 100 | 24.2 | 26.2 | 30 | 19 | 20.1 | 12.0 | 16.1 | 383 | |||
| Tyus Jones | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 66 | 77 | 100 | 61.2 | 64.2 | 55 | 70 | 15.4 | 13.0 | 14.2 | 584 | |||
| Zeke Nnaji | med | 0 | 1 | 27 | – | 27 | 0 | 20.7 | 21.7 | – | 21 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 174 | |||
| DaRon Holmes II | high | 0 | 2 | 24 | – | 24 | 0 | 18.8 | 20.8 | – | 19 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 145 | |||
| Ryan Nembhard | med | 0 | 2 | 57 | – | 57 | 0 | 44.4 | 46.4 | – | 45 | – | 11.0 | 11.0 | 292 |
Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.
ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
| Nikola Jokic | Gallagher #1 | Adelman can't help himself on minutes with lack of depth; Jokic was shooting 61% from field before injury |
| Jamal Murray | Gallagher #16 | Broke through on efficiency thanks to FTr, 3-point volume/efficiency; Adelman will play him heavy again |
| Cameron Johnson | Gallagher #105 | Not ready to give up on him yet and will have more leash with Watson and THJ gone |
| DeMar DeRozan | Gallagher #147 | A little boring for me and probably needs AG to go down to bust through fantasy wise |
| DeMar DeRozan | Depth chart | Subbing behind AG, but putting him here to make second unit cleaner |
| Aaron Gordon | Gallagher #134 | Maybe the Nuggets are willing to risk it on his health; can draft and cut once he goes down |
| Alpha Diallo | Depth chart | Between him and Strawther for the 10th spot |
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Jamal Murray
35.7 mpg × 66 g = 2,347
Tyus Jones
9.5 mpg × 61 g = 584
SG
Christian Braun
31.1 mpg × 66 g = 2,056
Julian Strawther
13.1 mpg × 40 g = 523
Cam Whitmore 2W
15.8 mpg × 24 g = 383
SF
Cameron Johnson
31.6 mpg × 61 g = 1,916
DeMar DeRozan
26.5 mpg × 68 g = 1,804
Alpha Diallo
17.8 mpg × 59 g = 1,056
Bryce Hopkins 2W
5.6 mpg × 17 g = 93
PF
Aaron Gordon
28.5 mpg × 55 g = 1,561
Spencer Jones
21.0 mpg × 65 g = 1,364
DaRon Holmes II
7.7 mpg × 19 g = 145
C
Nikola Jokic
35.5 mpg × 68 g = 2,422
Marvin Bagley III
18.6 mpg × 61 g = 1,138
Trevon Brazile
18.8 mpg × 59 g = 1,102
Zeke Nnaji
8.4 mpg × 21 g = 174
Not on ETR's depth chart: Ryan Nembhard
Schedule 3 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
| Date | Opp (net that game) | Our net | Win % | Result | Our players out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | @ OKC +4.7 | 39% | L 84-96 | ||
| 2026-10-24 | vs NOP -4.6 | 80% | W 141-135 | ||
| 2026-10-26 | vs GSW +0.3 | 67% | L 114-134 | ||
| 2026-10-28 | @ NOP -3.6 | +4.1 | 67% | Monster tonight Spencer Jones; Cameron Johnson; Julian Strawther; Alpha Diallo | |
| 2026-10-30 | @ PHX -1.1 | +3.4 | 57% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-11-02 | vs POR +2.4 | +3.4 | 60% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-11-04 | vs TOR +0.0 | +3.4 | 68% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-11-07 | @ IND -0.0 | +3.4 | 54% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-11-09 | @ HOU +5.3 | +3.4 | 37% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-11-11 | @ MEM -3.4 | +3.4 | 64% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-11-14 | @ NOP -4.6 | +3.4 | 68% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-11-16 | vs PHX -0.8 | +3.4 | 70% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-11-18 | vs BOS +6.3 | +3.4 | 48% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-11-20 | vs HOU +5.3 | +3.4 | 51% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-11-22 | @ CHI -5.2 | +3.4 | 69% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-11-24 | vs DAL -4.3 | +3.4 | 79% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-11-27 | @ UTA -4.4 | +3.4 | 67% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-11-29 | @ TOR +2.8 | +3.4 | 45% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-11-30 | @ DET +3.8 | +3.4 | 42% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-12-02 | @ PHI +2.5 | +3.4 | 46% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-12-12 | @ UTA -4.4 | +3.4 | 67% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-12-15 | @ POR +2.4 | +3.4 | 46% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-12-17 | vs ATL +0.8 | +3.4 | 65% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-12-19 | vs LAL +2.3 | +3.4 | 61% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-12-21 | @ LAC -3.2 | +3.4 | 64% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-12-23 | @ LAL +2.3 | +3.4 | 46% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-12-25 | @ GSW -0.2 | +3.4 | 54% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-12-27 | vs IND -0.0 | +3.4 | 68% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-12-28 | vs MIN +2.8 | +3.4 | 59% | Julian Strawther | |
| 2026-12-31 | @ MIN +2.8 | +3.4 | 45% | ||
| 2027-01-02 | vs NYK +5.0 | +3.4 | 52% | ||
| 2027-01-03 | vs DET +3.8 | +3.4 | 56% | ||
| 2027-01-05 | vs PHX -0.8 | +3.4 | 70% | ||
| 2027-01-07 | @ CHA -0.2 | +3.4 | 54% | ||
| 2027-01-09 | @ CLE +2.3 | +3.4 | 46% | ||
| 2027-01-11 | @ NYK +5.0 | +3.4 | 38% | ||
| 2027-01-12 | @ MIL -6.5 | +3.4 | 73% | ||
| 2027-01-14 | vs MEM -3.4 | +3.4 | 77% | ||
| 2027-01-16 | vs CHA -0.2 | +3.4 | 68% | ||
| 2027-01-17 | vs ORL +1.0 | +3.4 | 65% | ||
| 2027-01-19 | vs UTA -4.4 | +3.4 | 79% | ||
| 2027-01-21 | vs WAS -5.1 | +3.4 | 81% | ||
| 2027-01-23 | vs MIL -6.5 | +3.4 | 84% | ||
| 2027-01-25 | vs SAC -8.4 | +3.4 | 87% | ||
| 2027-01-27 | @ MIN +2.8 | +3.4 | 45% | ||
| 2027-01-30 | @ OKC +4.7 | +3.4 | 39% | ||
| 2027-01-31 | vs POR +2.4 | +3.4 | 60% | ||
| 2027-02-02 | vs OKC +4.7 | +3.4 | 53% | ||
| 2027-02-04 | vs DAL -4.3 | +3.4 | 79% | ||
| 2027-02-05 | vs LAC -3.2 | +3.4 | 76% | ||
| 2027-02-07 | @ ATL +0.8 | +3.4 | 51% | ||
| 2027-02-09 | @ BOS +6.3 | +3.4 | 34% | ||
| 2027-02-11 | vs CHI -5.2 | +3.4 | 81% | ||
| 2027-02-12 | @ LAL +2.3 | +3.4 | 46% | ||
| 2027-02-14 | @ HOU +5.3 | +3.4 | 37% | ||
| 2027-02-17 | vs UTA -4.4 | +3.4 | 79% | ||
| 2027-02-26 | vs LAL +2.3 | +3.4 | 61% | ||
| 2027-02-28 | @ SAS +5.9 | +3.4 | 35% | ||
| 2027-03-01 | vs BKN -5.7 | +3.4 | 82% | ||
| 2027-03-03 | vs SAS +5.9 | +3.4 | 50% | ||
| 2027-03-07 | vs MIN +2.8 | +3.4 | 59% | ||
| 2027-03-08 | @ SAC -8.4 | +3.4 | 78% | ||
| 2027-03-10 | @ POR +2.8 | +3.4 | 45% | ||
| 2027-03-12 | vs GSW +1.2 | +3.4 | 64% | ||
| 2027-03-14 | vs MIA +0.5 | +3.4 | 66% | ||
| 2027-03-16 | @ LAC -3.0 | +3.4 | 63% | ||
| 2027-03-18 | vs CLE +2.3 | +3.4 | 61% | ||
| 2027-03-20 | @ ORL +1.0 | +3.4 | 50% | ||
| 2027-03-21 | @ MIA +0.5 | +3.4 | 52% | ||
| 2027-03-24 | @ WAS -5.1 | +3.4 | 69% | ||
| 2027-03-25 | @ BKN -5.7 | +3.4 | 71% | ||
| 2027-03-28 | vs PHI +2.5 | +3.4 | 60% | ||
| 2027-03-29 | @ SAC -8.4 | +3.4 | 78% | ||
| 2027-03-31 | @ DAL -4.3 | +3.4 | 67% | ||
| 2027-04-02 | @ PHX -0.5 | +3.4 | 55% | ||
| 2027-04-04 | vs MEM -3.4 | +3.4 | 77% | ||
| 2027-04-06 | vs NOP -4.6 | +3.4 | 80% | ||
| 2027-04-08 | vs LAC -3.0 | +3.4 | 76% | ||
| 2027-04-09 | @ SAS +5.9 | +3.4 | 35% | ||
| 2027-04-11 | vs OKC +5.0 | +3.4 | 52% |
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)
Bottom line: Adelman doesn't trust his bench, so Braun, Cam Johnson and a healthy Aaron Gordon should play big minutes, and Julian Strawther's knee injury thins it further. The new defensive scheme stops transition at the cost of offensive rebounding.
Usage & ball-handling
- Nikola Jokic was pass-first by design (one shot and seven assists in 15 minutes), then posted a triple-double in 26.5 minutes.
- Aaron Gordon was the biggest story: healthy, with a big handling role. He and Leonard Miller were the only rotation players over 25% usage and 75% TS, and he was on pace for about 29 minutes.
- With Jamal Murray out, Christian Braun and Cam Johnson both handled more. Braun ran in transition and Johnson showed more burst.
- DeMar DeRozan is the key piece of the second unit.
Minutes & rotation
- Starters: Murray, Braun, Johnson, Gordon, Jokic. Rookie Trevon Brazile started for Gordon in the finale.
- Adelman says he doesn't know his 10-man rotation yet and has little faith in the bench, which pushes up minutes for Braun and Johnson.
- Strawther, the straight backup to Johnson, had his left knee bent backward on Oct 14 and will miss time. That opens minutes for Alpha Diallo and/or Cam Whitmore; ETR expects Diallo first because of his on-ball defense.
- C2: Marvin Bagley (C2 only, poor defensively vs LAC). Brazile (PF2) has played well and could take C2 soon. Zeke Nnaji got one look and isn't good enough.
- Tyus Jones backs up Murray. Bryce Hopkins split non-Braun minutes with Diallo once. Spencer Jones (hamstring) missed early games.
- ETR moves: Spencer Jones cut, with his minutes going to Diallo. DeRozan trimmed slightly. Johnson favored as a bounce-back.
Who plays together
- DeRozan backs up Gordon with a little overlap and gets some minutes in units without Jokic or Murray.
- Strawther for Johnson and Tyus Jones for Murray are straight swaps.
- Adelman is mixing up the second unit, so expect some lineup churn.
Pace & shot selection
- New scheme: don't crash, get back. Denver allowed just 6.3% of possessions in transition (Utah had zero fastbreak points) but had only 7 offensive rebounds in one game.
- The Nuggets-Jazz games were the slowest of the preseason (96.17 pace).
- ETR expects Denver to be a little better on defense.
Player by player
| Player | Model GP | Model MPG | Model min | Preseason read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 68 | 35.5 | 2,422 | Pass-first early, triple-double late. No concerns. |
| Aaron Gordon | 55 | 28.5 | 1,561 | Healthy and featured, with full first-half minutes. Very efficient high usage. Durability is the only question. |
| Jamal Murray | 66 | 35.7 | 2,347 | Starting PG. Missed one game for personal reasons. |
| Christian Braun | 66 | 31.1 | 2,056 | Legs back. Minutes should rise because the bench is thin. |
| Cameron Johnson | 61 | 31.6 | 1,916 | Bounce-back candidate. Minutes up with Strawther hurt. |
| DeMar DeRozan | 68 | 26.5 | 1,804 | Runs the second unit, backs up Gordon. |
| Trevon Brazile | 59 | 18.8 | 1,102 | Rookie PF2 who started the finale. Could take C2 from Bagley. |
| Marvin Bagley III | 61 | 18.6 | 1,138 | C2 for now, poor defense. |
| Julian Strawther | 40 | 13.1 | 523 | Knee injury Oct 14. Will miss time. |
| Alpha Diallo | 59 | 17.8 | 1,056 | Next wing in, praised for his defense. |
Preseason starting lineups
| Game | Opp | Starters | Out (ETR's noteworthy inactives) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | UTA | Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic | |
| Oct 11 | CHI | Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic | Spencer Jones |
| Oct 14 | LAC | Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic |
Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.