NBA 2026-27 Wins Model

built 2026-10-28 15:40 · darko 2026-10-28 15:40 · rosters 2026-10-28 15:40 · schedule 2026-10-28 15:40 · build 2026-10-28 15:40 · etr 2026-10-28 15:40 · monster_ros 2026-10-28 15:40 · fanduel 2026-10-28 15:40 · sim 2026-10-28 15:40

ORL Magic #15 of 30

Projected wins
42.6
FanDuel 40.5 (o-115 / u-110) · record 1-2
Net rating
+0.74
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off -0.28 · def +2.15
Next game / full strength
-0.11 / +0.98
2026-10-28 @ TOR (Monster daily minutes) · out: Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
DARKO vs market
+0.48 / +1.00
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 42.1 / 43.0
Minutes covered
18,885
of 18,960 remaining · fill 74 @ replacement
Roster
17
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
-0.02
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
81% ETR
7% MPG from ETR FPPG · 12% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
94 pts
34 reb · 21 ast · 9.1 3pm · 81% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
PlayerETR slotPosAgeGPMPGMinPTSREBASTSTLBLK3PMTOFG% zFT% zFPPG9-cat rkShare %DPMMktRatingODO ctbD ctbContrib
Desmond BaneSG1G286834.12,32019.64.44.51.10.42.42.1+0.12+0.9734.23312.2+0.96+3.32+2.14+1.03-0.06+0.63-0.04+1.31
Franz WagnerSF1F256033.82,03721.95.54.31.10.31.51.9+0.14+0.9937.45110.7+1.67+2.84+2.26+1.86-0.19+1.00-0.10+1.21
Anthony BlackPG2G226529.61,92713.13.43.61.30.61.41.7-0.45-0.3326.314510.2+0.58-0.73-0.07-0.64+1.22-0.32+0.62-0.04
Wendell Carter Jr.C1C276430.21,92411.37.32.10.70.61.01.3+0.28-0.0925.814910.1+1.42-0.06+0.68-0.48+1.91-0.24+0.96+0.35
Tristan da SilvaSG2F256826.81,8129.33.61.80.80.31.40.9-0.28+0.2118.42379.6-0.60-2.38-1.49-0.47-0.13-0.23-0.06-0.71
Paolo BancheroINJ 16g · back 12-02PF1F235235.01,81122.57.55.30.80.51.43.1-0.50-0.4740.31139.6+1.16+0.02+0.59+1.47-0.30+0.70-0.14+0.28
Jalen SuggsINJ 16g · back 12-02PG1G254230.01,27114.53.94.71.70.72.22.5-0.78+0.2830.8956.7+1.47+2.31+1.89-0.11+1.57-0.04+0.53+0.63
Nikola VucevicC2C366519.31,25111.06.42.30.40.51.11.0+0.07+0.0823.91826.6-1.24+1.06-0.09-1.68+0.45-0.55+0.15-0.03
Jamal Cainmpg from ETR FPPGSF2F276419.51,240–––––––––14.6–6.5-1.66-2.64-2.15-0.97-0.69-0.32-0.22-0.70
Goga BitadzeC3C275816.49565.74.91.50.61.00.10.8+0.33-0.4017.72785.0+1.09+0.35+0.72-0.50+1.58-0.12+0.40+0.18
Jase RichardsonETR depth fillSG3G217010.4730–––––––––––3.9-2.04-0.93-1.49-1.19-0.84-0.23-0.16-0.29
Jevon CarterETR depth fillPG3G31709.3649–––––––––––3.4-0.98-0.71-0.85-0.87-0.11-0.15-0.02-0.14
Noah PendaINJ 30g · back 01-01ETR depth fillPF2F213215.0480–––––––––––2.5-0.80-1.92-1.35-1.18+0.39-0.15+0.05-0.17
Jonathan IsaacINJ 4g · back 11-05ETR depth fillPF3F29406.7269–––––––––––1.4+1.05-0.23+0.41-1.79+2.85-0.13+0.20+0.03
Alex MoralesETR depth fillPG4G28165.384–––––––––––0.4-3.33-0.06-1.70-2.63-0.70-0.05-0.01-0.04
Izaiyah NelsonINJ 8g · back 11-13mpg from ETR FPPGPF4F23193.565–––––––––––0.3-3.09–-3.09-2.67-0.42-0.04-0.01-0.05
Colin CastletonC26163.860–––––––––––0.3-0.98-1.52-1.25-1.57+0.58-0.02+0.01-0.02
Team18,88593.734.321.56.03.59.110.899+1.87+1.73-0.27+2.14+1.80

PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 74 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.04. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.

Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
PlayerInjRiskOut untilGames outPlayedMon %ETR %Avail %Next %Exp GPSeason GETR GMon GETR MPGMon MPGRole MPGExp minMonster note
Noah PendaINJ 30ghigh2027-01-0130065–65032.032.0–3212.115.015.0480Injured - right hamstring (Injury) - Est. Return 01/01
Paolo BancheroINJ 16ghigh2026-12-02162828282051.753.7675234.535.035.01,811Injured - right high ankle sprain (Injury) - Est. Return 12/02
Jalen SuggsINJ 16ghigh2026-12-02163706567042.445.4534428.930.030.01,271Injured - right knee bone bruise (Injury) - Est. Return 12/02
Izaiyah NelsonINJ 8gmed2026-11-1380272626018.618.6211921.16.06.065Injured - broken ankle (Injury) - Est. Return 11/13
Jonathan IsaacINJ 4ghigh2026-11-054053–53040.040.0–4012.111.011.0269Injured - left knee injury management (Injury) - Est. Return 11/05
Desmond Banemed0389848610068.171.1697033.532.032.72,320
Franz Wagnerhigh0376767610060.263.2636033.032.032.52,037
Wendell Carter Jr.med0389728010063.766.7607028.030.029.01,924
Anthony Blackhigh018482835065.266.2666627.929.028.41,927
Tristan da Silvamed0389828510067.670.6687024.527.025.71,812
Jamal Cainhigh0384778010063.766.7646618.419.018.71,240
Nikola Vucevicmed0389758210064.767.7627021.316.018.71,251
Goga Bitadzehigh0284637310058.360.3526616.016.016.0956
Jase Richardsonmed0389–8910070.173.1–7012.115.013.6730
Jevon Cartermed0189–8910070.171.1–7012.114.013.1649

Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.

ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
Desmond BaneGallagher #33Sweeney should emphasize Bane for more 3-point volume, capable of playing heavy minutes
Franz WagnerGallagher #57Trust Sweeney and staff to get Franz out of this efficiency rut, minutes should come back at full health
Wendell Carter Jr.Gallagher #137Sean Sweeney really likes him and I don't think Vooch will fit his scheme
Paolo BancheroGallagher #88Just doesn't translate to 9-cat and you'd think a new coaching staff cuts his usage given inefficiency
Jalen SuggsGallagher #111Hurt too often and could see Sweeney keeping his minutes very low
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Jalen Suggs
30.0 mpg × 42 g = 1,271
Anthony Black
29.6 mpg × 65 g = 1,927
Jevon Carter
9.3 mpg × 70 g = 649
Alex Morales 2W
5.3 mpg × 16 g = 84
SG
Desmond Bane
34.1 mpg × 68 g = 2,320
Tristan da Silva
26.8 mpg × 68 g = 1,812
Jase Richardson
10.4 mpg × 70 g = 730
SF
Franz Wagner
33.8 mpg × 60 g = 2,037
Jamal Cain
19.5 mpg × 64 g = 1,240
PF
Paolo Banchero
35.0 mpg × 52 g = 1,811
Noah Penda
15.0 mpg × 32 g = 480
Jonathan Isaac
6.7 mpg × 40 g = 269
Izaiyah Nelson 2W
3.5 mpg × 19 g = 65
C
Wendell Carter Jr.
30.2 mpg × 64 g = 1,924
Nikola Vucevic
19.3 mpg × 65 g = 1,251
Goga Bitadze
16.4 mpg × 58 g = 956

Not on ETR's depth chart: Colin Castleton

Schedule 3 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
DateOpp (net that game)Our netWin %ResultOur players out
2026-10-21vs ATL +0.857%L 125-132
2026-10-23vs MIN +2.851%L 93-115
2026-10-25@ NYK +5.030%W 111-102
2026-10-28@ TOR +1.6-0.137%Monster tonight Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-10-30@ TOR +0.0-0.541%Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-11-01vs BOS +6.3-0.536%Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-11-02vs WAS -5.2-0.571%Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-11-05@ PHX -0.8-0.245%Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-11-07@ GSW -0.3-0.243%Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-11-10@ SAC -8.2-0.268%Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-11-11@ UTA -4.4-0.256%Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-11-13vs MIL -6.5-0.275%Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-11-16@ BOS +6.3-0.224%Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-11-18vs PHI +2.5-0.249%Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-11-20@ BKN -5.7-0.260%Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-11-22@ WAS -5.1-0.258%Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-11-24vs DET +3.8-0.244%Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-11-28@ WAS -5.1-0.258%Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-11-29@ DET +3.8-0.231%Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero
2026-12-02@ DAL -4.3+1.060%Noah Penda
2026-12-12@ PHI +2.5+1.038%Noah Penda
2026-12-14vs PHI +2.5+1.053%Noah Penda
2026-12-16vs CLE +2.3+1.053%Noah Penda
2026-12-18@ BKN -5.7+1.064%Noah Penda
2026-12-19@ ATL +0.8+1.043%Noah Penda
2026-12-21vs SAC -8.4+1.082%Noah Penda
2026-12-23vs CHA -0.2+1.061%Noah Penda
2026-12-26vs TOR +2.8+1.052%Noah Penda
2026-12-27vs MIL -6.5+1.078%Noah Penda
2026-12-29@ CHA -0.2+1.046%Noah Penda
2026-12-31@ IND -0.0+1.046%Noah Penda
2027-01-01@ DET +3.8+1.034%
2027-01-03vs MEM -3.4+1.070%
2027-01-05vs LAC -3.2+1.070%
2027-01-07vs CLE +2.3+1.053%
2027-01-08@ NOP -4.6+1.060%
2027-01-10vs OKC +4.7+1.045%
2027-01-12@ POR +2.4+1.038%
2027-01-14@ LAL +2.3+1.038%
2027-01-15@ LAC -3.2+1.056%
2027-01-17@ DEN +3.4+1.035%
2027-01-19vs GSW -0.2+1.061%
2027-01-22vs POR +2.4+1.053%
2027-01-24vs HOU +5.3+1.044%
2027-01-25@ CHA -0.2+1.046%
2027-01-28vs CHI -5.2+1.075%
2027-01-29@ HOU +5.3+1.030%
2027-01-31vs BKN -5.7+1.076%
2027-02-02vs NOP -4.6+1.074%
2027-02-04@ SAS +5.9+1.028%
2027-02-06@ CLE +2.3+1.039%
2027-02-08@ MIL -6.5+1.066%
2027-02-10@ MEM -3.4+1.056%
2027-02-12vs MIA +0.5+1.059%
2027-02-13vs SAS +5.9+1.042%
2027-02-15@ OKC +4.7+1.031%
2027-02-17vs DAL -4.3+1.073%
2027-02-25vs CHA -0.2+1.061%
2027-02-28vs ATL +0.8+1.058%
2027-03-02vs LAL +2.3+1.053%
2027-03-04vs IND +0.0+1.060%
2027-03-05vs UTA -4.4+1.073%
2027-03-09vs PHX -0.5+1.062%
2027-03-10@ MIA +0.5+1.044%
2027-03-13@ ATL +0.8+1.043%
2027-03-15@ CHI -5.2+1.062%
2027-03-16@ MIL -6.5+1.066%
2027-03-18@ BOS +6.3+1.027%
2027-03-20vs DEN +3.4+1.050%
2027-03-22vs IND +0.0+1.060%
2027-03-24@ CHI -5.2+1.062%
2027-03-26@ MIN +2.8+1.037%
2027-03-28vs NYK +5.0+1.044%
2027-03-30vs NYK +5.0+1.044%
2027-04-01@ IND +0.0+1.046%
2027-04-03vs WAS -5.1+1.075%
2027-04-05vs MIA +0.5+1.059%
2027-04-07vs BOS +6.3+1.040%
2027-04-09vs TOR +2.8+1.051%
2027-04-11@ MIA +0.5+1.044%
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)

Bottom line: New coach Sean Sweeney's Magic look like a real system: full-court pressure, switching defense, a high three-point rate and heavy ball movement. Franz Wagner is the primary handler, and Orlando had the preseason's third-best offense.

Usage & ball-handling
  • Franz Wagner: primary handler with 7, 8 and 6 assists in games ETR noted. Fifth in assists per 100 in the preseason.
  • Paolo Banchero: strong usage but up and down. He went 1-of-10 vs CLE with Mobley and Watson on him, then 10-of-13 with only one mid-range shot in the rematch, and brought the ball up a good bit.
  • Desmond Bane: light usage with little handling. ETR thinks more threes have to come through him.
  • Jalen Suggs: a lot of corner standing, so ETR cut his assist rate.
  • Wendell Carter Jr.: involved early, and Sweeney is counting on him to anchor the defense. ETR thinks a mini-breakout is coming.
  • Tristan da Silva: high-volume three-point shooter (10 of the team's 20 first-half attempts once). Sweeney on how many threes he can take: "What's the most amount he can take?"
Minutes & rotation
  • Starters: Suggs, Bane, Wagner, Banchero, Carter Jr.
  • C2: Goga Bitadze subbed ahead of Nikola Vucevic early (Vucevic had five first-half minutes), but Vucevic was the backup C in the finale.
  • Jamal Cain is the lead bench wing and should play on opening night.
  • Anthony Black missed the preseason. Jase Richardson started in his and Suggs' absence but likely falls out once they're healthy. Jevon Carter covered backup PG minutes.
Who plays together
  • Defense: pressed almost every first-quarter possession, switched 1 through 4 with the center in drop, and helped off the weak side.
  • Carter Jr. is the only big who fits all of Sweeney's schemes, which protects his minutes.
Pace & shot selection
  • Second-highest three-point rate early (11th by mid-preseason) and third in preseason offense.
  • Assisted on 85.4% and 87.5% of made shots in two games. Drive-heavy, with 64 paint points vs CLE.

Player by player

PlayerModel GPModel MPGModel minPreseason read
Franz Wagner6033.82,037Primary handler. Assists way up.
Paolo Banchero5235.01,811High usage, efficiency swings. Brings the ball up at times.
Desmond Bane6834.12,320Light usage so far.
Jalen Suggs4230.01,271Starter, off-ball corner role.
Wendell Carter Jr.6430.21,924Defensive anchor, more involved on offense.
Tristan da Silva6826.81,812Bench gunner.
Jamal Cain6419.51,240Lead bench wing.
Nikola Vucevic6519.31,251Backup C in the finale after trailing Goga early.
Goga Bitadze5816.4956Backup C early.
Anthony Black6529.61,927Missed the preseason.

Preseason starting lineups

GameOppStartersOut (ETR's noteworthy inactives)
Oct 7MEMJase Richardson, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, Noah Penda
Oct 11CLEJase Richardson, Tristan da Silva, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.Anthony Black, Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs
Oct 13CLEJalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.Anthony Black

Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.