ORL Magic #15 of 30
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
| Player | ETR slot | Pos | Age | GP | MPG | Min | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TO | FG% z | FT% z | FPPG | 9-cat rk | Share % | DPM | Mkt | Rating | O | D | O ctb | D ctb | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Bane | SG1 | G | 28 | 68 | 34.1 | 2,320 | 19.6 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | +0.12 | +0.97 | 34.2 | 33 | 12.2 | +0.96 | +3.32 | +2.14 | +1.03 | -0.06 | +0.63 | -0.04 | +1.31 |
| Franz Wagner | SF1 | F | 25 | 60 | 33.8 | 2,037 | 21.9 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | +0.14 | +0.99 | 37.4 | 51 | 10.7 | +1.67 | +2.84 | +2.26 | +1.86 | -0.19 | +1.00 | -0.10 | +1.21 |
| Anthony Black | PG2 | G | 22 | 65 | 29.6 | 1,927 | 13.1 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.45 | -0.33 | 26.3 | 145 | 10.2 | +0.58 | -0.73 | -0.07 | -0.64 | +1.22 | -0.32 | +0.62 | -0.04 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | C1 | C | 27 | 64 | 30.2 | 1,924 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | +0.28 | -0.09 | 25.8 | 149 | 10.1 | +1.42 | -0.06 | +0.68 | -0.48 | +1.91 | -0.24 | +0.96 | +0.35 |
| Tristan da Silva | SG2 | F | 25 | 68 | 26.8 | 1,812 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | -0.28 | +0.21 | 18.4 | 237 | 9.6 | -0.60 | -2.38 | -1.49 | -0.47 | -0.13 | -0.23 | -0.06 | -0.71 |
| Paolo BancheroINJ 16g · back 12-02 | PF1 | F | 23 | 52 | 35.0 | 1,811 | 22.5 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 3.1 | -0.50 | -0.47 | 40.3 | 113 | 9.6 | +1.16 | +0.02 | +0.59 | +1.47 | -0.30 | +0.70 | -0.14 | +0.28 |
| Jalen SuggsINJ 16g · back 12-02 | PG1 | G | 25 | 42 | 30.0 | 1,271 | 14.5 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | -0.78 | +0.28 | 30.8 | 95 | 6.7 | +1.47 | +2.31 | +1.89 | -0.11 | +1.57 | -0.04 | +0.53 | +0.63 |
| Nikola Vucevic | C2 | C | 36 | 65 | 19.3 | 1,251 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | +0.07 | +0.08 | 23.9 | 182 | 6.6 | -1.24 | +1.06 | -0.09 | -1.68 | +0.45 | -0.55 | +0.15 | -0.03 |
| Jamal Cainmpg from ETR FPPG | SF2 | F | 27 | 64 | 19.5 | 1,240 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14.6 | – | 6.5 | -1.66 | -2.64 | -2.15 | -0.97 | -0.69 | -0.32 | -0.22 | -0.70 |
| Goga Bitadze | C3 | C | 27 | 58 | 16.4 | 956 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | +0.33 | -0.40 | 17.7 | 278 | 5.0 | +1.09 | +0.35 | +0.72 | -0.50 | +1.58 | -0.12 | +0.40 | +0.18 |
| Jase RichardsonETR depth fill | SG3 | G | 21 | 70 | 10.4 | 730 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3.9 | -2.04 | -0.93 | -1.49 | -1.19 | -0.84 | -0.23 | -0.16 | -0.29 |
| Jevon CarterETR depth fill | PG3 | G | 31 | 70 | 9.3 | 649 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3.4 | -0.98 | -0.71 | -0.85 | -0.87 | -0.11 | -0.15 | -0.02 | -0.14 |
| Noah PendaINJ 30g · back 01-01ETR depth fill | PF2 | F | 21 | 32 | 15.0 | 480 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.5 | -0.80 | -1.92 | -1.35 | -1.18 | +0.39 | -0.15 | +0.05 | -0.17 |
| Jonathan IsaacINJ 4g · back 11-05ETR depth fill | PF3 | F | 29 | 40 | 6.7 | 269 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.4 | +1.05 | -0.23 | +0.41 | -1.79 | +2.85 | -0.13 | +0.20 | +0.03 |
| Alex MoralesETR depth fill | PG4 | G | 28 | 16 | 5.3 | 84 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -3.33 | -0.06 | -1.70 | -2.63 | -0.70 | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| Izaiyah NelsonINJ 8g · back 11-13mpg from ETR FPPG | PF4 | F | 23 | 19 | 3.5 | 65 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.3 | -3.09 | – | -3.09 | -2.67 | -0.42 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| Colin Castleton | C | 26 | 16 | 3.8 | 60 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.3 | -0.98 | -1.52 | -1.25 | -1.57 | +0.58 | -0.02 | +0.01 | -0.02 | |
| Team | 18,885 | 93.7 | 34.3 | 21.5 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 99 | +1.87 | +1.73 | -0.27 | +2.14 | +1.80 |
PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 74 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.04. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.
Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
| Player | Inj | Risk | Out until | Games out | Played | Mon % | ETR % | Avail % | Next % | Exp GP | Season G | ETR G | Mon G | ETR MPG | Mon MPG | Role MPG | Exp min | Monster note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Penda | INJ 30g | high | 2027-01-01 | 30 | 0 | 65 | – | 65 | 0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | – | 32 | 12.1 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 480 | Injured - right hamstring (Injury) - Est. Return 01/01 |
| Paolo Banchero | INJ 16g | high | 2026-12-02 | 16 | 2 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 0 | 51.7 | 53.7 | 67 | 52 | 34.5 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 1,811 | Injured - right high ankle sprain (Injury) - Est. Return 12/02 |
| Jalen Suggs | INJ 16g | high | 2026-12-02 | 16 | 3 | 70 | 65 | 67 | 0 | 42.4 | 45.4 | 53 | 44 | 28.9 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 1,271 | Injured - right knee bone bruise (Injury) - Est. Return 12/02 |
| Izaiyah Nelson | INJ 8g | med | 2026-11-13 | 8 | 0 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 21 | 19 | 21.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 65 | Injured - broken ankle (Injury) - Est. Return 11/13 |
| Jonathan Isaac | INJ 4g | high | 2026-11-05 | 4 | 0 | 53 | – | 53 | 0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | – | 40 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 269 | Injured - left knee injury management (Injury) - Est. Return 11/05 |
| Desmond Bane | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 84 | 86 | 100 | 68.1 | 71.1 | 69 | 70 | 33.5 | 32.0 | 32.7 | 2,320 | |||
| Franz Wagner | high | 0 | 3 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 100 | 60.2 | 63.2 | 63 | 60 | 33.0 | 32.0 | 32.5 | 2,037 | |||
| Wendell Carter Jr. | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 72 | 80 | 100 | 63.7 | 66.7 | 60 | 70 | 28.0 | 30.0 | 29.0 | 1,924 | |||
| Anthony Black | high | 0 | 1 | 84 | 82 | 83 | 50 | 65.2 | 66.2 | 66 | 66 | 27.9 | 29.0 | 28.4 | 1,927 | |||
| Tristan da Silva | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 82 | 85 | 100 | 67.6 | 70.6 | 68 | 70 | 24.5 | 27.0 | 25.7 | 1,812 | |||
| Jamal Cain | high | 0 | 3 | 84 | 77 | 80 | 100 | 63.7 | 66.7 | 64 | 66 | 18.4 | 19.0 | 18.7 | 1,240 | |||
| Nikola Vucevic | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 75 | 82 | 100 | 64.7 | 67.7 | 62 | 70 | 21.3 | 16.0 | 18.7 | 1,251 | |||
| Goga Bitadze | high | 0 | 2 | 84 | 63 | 73 | 100 | 58.3 | 60.3 | 52 | 66 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 956 | |||
| Jase Richardson | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | – | 89 | 100 | 70.1 | 73.1 | – | 70 | 12.1 | 15.0 | 13.6 | 730 | |||
| Jevon Carter | med | 0 | 1 | 89 | – | 89 | 100 | 70.1 | 71.1 | – | 70 | 12.1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 649 |
Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.
ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
| Desmond Bane | Gallagher #33 | Sweeney should emphasize Bane for more 3-point volume, capable of playing heavy minutes |
| Franz Wagner | Gallagher #57 | Trust Sweeney and staff to get Franz out of this efficiency rut, minutes should come back at full health |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | Gallagher #137 | Sean Sweeney really likes him and I don't think Vooch will fit his scheme |
| Paolo Banchero | Gallagher #88 | Just doesn't translate to 9-cat and you'd think a new coaching staff cuts his usage given inefficiency |
| Jalen Suggs | Gallagher #111 | Hurt too often and could see Sweeney keeping his minutes very low |
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
Not on ETR's depth chart: Colin Castleton
Schedule 3 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
| Date | Opp (net that game) | Our net | Win % | Result | Our players out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | vs ATL +0.8 | 57% | L 125-132 | ||
| 2026-10-23 | vs MIN +2.8 | 51% | L 93-115 | ||
| 2026-10-25 | @ NYK +5.0 | 30% | W 111-102 | ||
| 2026-10-28 | @ TOR +1.6 | -0.1 | 37% | Monster tonight Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-10-30 | @ TOR +0.0 | -0.5 | 41% | Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-11-01 | vs BOS +6.3 | -0.5 | 36% | Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-11-02 | vs WAS -5.2 | -0.5 | 71% | Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-11-05 | @ PHX -0.8 | -0.2 | 45% | Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-11-07 | @ GSW -0.3 | -0.2 | 43% | Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-11-10 | @ SAC -8.2 | -0.2 | 68% | Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-11-11 | @ UTA -4.4 | -0.2 | 56% | Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-11-13 | vs MIL -6.5 | -0.2 | 75% | Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-11-16 | @ BOS +6.3 | -0.2 | 24% | Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-11-18 | vs PHI +2.5 | -0.2 | 49% | Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-11-20 | @ BKN -5.7 | -0.2 | 60% | Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-11-22 | @ WAS -5.1 | -0.2 | 58% | Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-11-24 | vs DET +3.8 | -0.2 | 44% | Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-11-28 | @ WAS -5.1 | -0.2 | 58% | Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-11-29 | @ DET +3.8 | -0.2 | 31% | Noah Penda; Jalen Suggs; Paolo Banchero | |
| 2026-12-02 | @ DAL -4.3 | +1.0 | 60% | Noah Penda | |
| 2026-12-12 | @ PHI +2.5 | +1.0 | 38% | Noah Penda | |
| 2026-12-14 | vs PHI +2.5 | +1.0 | 53% | Noah Penda | |
| 2026-12-16 | vs CLE +2.3 | +1.0 | 53% | Noah Penda | |
| 2026-12-18 | @ BKN -5.7 | +1.0 | 64% | Noah Penda | |
| 2026-12-19 | @ ATL +0.8 | +1.0 | 43% | Noah Penda | |
| 2026-12-21 | vs SAC -8.4 | +1.0 | 82% | Noah Penda | |
| 2026-12-23 | vs CHA -0.2 | +1.0 | 61% | Noah Penda | |
| 2026-12-26 | vs TOR +2.8 | +1.0 | 52% | Noah Penda | |
| 2026-12-27 | vs MIL -6.5 | +1.0 | 78% | Noah Penda | |
| 2026-12-29 | @ CHA -0.2 | +1.0 | 46% | Noah Penda | |
| 2026-12-31 | @ IND -0.0 | +1.0 | 46% | Noah Penda | |
| 2027-01-01 | @ DET +3.8 | +1.0 | 34% | ||
| 2027-01-03 | vs MEM -3.4 | +1.0 | 70% | ||
| 2027-01-05 | vs LAC -3.2 | +1.0 | 70% | ||
| 2027-01-07 | vs CLE +2.3 | +1.0 | 53% | ||
| 2027-01-08 | @ NOP -4.6 | +1.0 | 60% | ||
| 2027-01-10 | vs OKC +4.7 | +1.0 | 45% | ||
| 2027-01-12 | @ POR +2.4 | +1.0 | 38% | ||
| 2027-01-14 | @ LAL +2.3 | +1.0 | 38% | ||
| 2027-01-15 | @ LAC -3.2 | +1.0 | 56% | ||
| 2027-01-17 | @ DEN +3.4 | +1.0 | 35% | ||
| 2027-01-19 | vs GSW -0.2 | +1.0 | 61% | ||
| 2027-01-22 | vs POR +2.4 | +1.0 | 53% | ||
| 2027-01-24 | vs HOU +5.3 | +1.0 | 44% | ||
| 2027-01-25 | @ CHA -0.2 | +1.0 | 46% | ||
| 2027-01-28 | vs CHI -5.2 | +1.0 | 75% | ||
| 2027-01-29 | @ HOU +5.3 | +1.0 | 30% | ||
| 2027-01-31 | vs BKN -5.7 | +1.0 | 76% | ||
| 2027-02-02 | vs NOP -4.6 | +1.0 | 74% | ||
| 2027-02-04 | @ SAS +5.9 | +1.0 | 28% | ||
| 2027-02-06 | @ CLE +2.3 | +1.0 | 39% | ||
| 2027-02-08 | @ MIL -6.5 | +1.0 | 66% | ||
| 2027-02-10 | @ MEM -3.4 | +1.0 | 56% | ||
| 2027-02-12 | vs MIA +0.5 | +1.0 | 59% | ||
| 2027-02-13 | vs SAS +5.9 | +1.0 | 42% | ||
| 2027-02-15 | @ OKC +4.7 | +1.0 | 31% | ||
| 2027-02-17 | vs DAL -4.3 | +1.0 | 73% | ||
| 2027-02-25 | vs CHA -0.2 | +1.0 | 61% | ||
| 2027-02-28 | vs ATL +0.8 | +1.0 | 58% | ||
| 2027-03-02 | vs LAL +2.3 | +1.0 | 53% | ||
| 2027-03-04 | vs IND +0.0 | +1.0 | 60% | ||
| 2027-03-05 | vs UTA -4.4 | +1.0 | 73% | ||
| 2027-03-09 | vs PHX -0.5 | +1.0 | 62% | ||
| 2027-03-10 | @ MIA +0.5 | +1.0 | 44% | ||
| 2027-03-13 | @ ATL +0.8 | +1.0 | 43% | ||
| 2027-03-15 | @ CHI -5.2 | +1.0 | 62% | ||
| 2027-03-16 | @ MIL -6.5 | +1.0 | 66% | ||
| 2027-03-18 | @ BOS +6.3 | +1.0 | 27% | ||
| 2027-03-20 | vs DEN +3.4 | +1.0 | 50% | ||
| 2027-03-22 | vs IND +0.0 | +1.0 | 60% | ||
| 2027-03-24 | @ CHI -5.2 | +1.0 | 62% | ||
| 2027-03-26 | @ MIN +2.8 | +1.0 | 37% | ||
| 2027-03-28 | vs NYK +5.0 | +1.0 | 44% | ||
| 2027-03-30 | vs NYK +5.0 | +1.0 | 44% | ||
| 2027-04-01 | @ IND +0.0 | +1.0 | 46% | ||
| 2027-04-03 | vs WAS -5.1 | +1.0 | 75% | ||
| 2027-04-05 | vs MIA +0.5 | +1.0 | 59% | ||
| 2027-04-07 | vs BOS +6.3 | +1.0 | 40% | ||
| 2027-04-09 | vs TOR +2.8 | +1.0 | 51% | ||
| 2027-04-11 | @ MIA +0.5 | +1.0 | 44% |
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)
Bottom line: New coach Sean Sweeney's Magic look like a real system: full-court pressure, switching defense, a high three-point rate and heavy ball movement. Franz Wagner is the primary handler, and Orlando had the preseason's third-best offense.
- Franz Wagner: primary handler with 7, 8 and 6 assists in games ETR noted. Fifth in assists per 100 in the preseason.
- Paolo Banchero: strong usage but up and down. He went 1-of-10 vs CLE with Mobley and Watson on him, then 10-of-13 with only one mid-range shot in the rematch, and brought the ball up a good bit.
- Desmond Bane: light usage with little handling. ETR thinks more threes have to come through him.
- Jalen Suggs: a lot of corner standing, so ETR cut his assist rate.
- Wendell Carter Jr.: involved early, and Sweeney is counting on him to anchor the defense. ETR thinks a mini-breakout is coming.
- Tristan da Silva: high-volume three-point shooter (10 of the team's 20 first-half attempts once). Sweeney on how many threes he can take: "What's the most amount he can take?"
- Starters: Suggs, Bane, Wagner, Banchero, Carter Jr.
- C2: Goga Bitadze subbed ahead of Nikola Vucevic early (Vucevic had five first-half minutes), but Vucevic was the backup C in the finale.
- Jamal Cain is the lead bench wing and should play on opening night.
- Anthony Black missed the preseason. Jase Richardson started in his and Suggs' absence but likely falls out once they're healthy. Jevon Carter covered backup PG minutes.
- Defense: pressed almost every first-quarter possession, switched 1 through 4 with the center in drop, and helped off the weak side.
- Carter Jr. is the only big who fits all of Sweeney's schemes, which protects his minutes.
- Second-highest three-point rate early (11th by mid-preseason) and third in preseason offense.
- Assisted on 85.4% and 87.5% of made shots in two games. Drive-heavy, with 64 paint points vs CLE.
Player by player
| Player | Model GP | Model MPG | Model min | Preseason read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | 60 | 33.8 | 2,037 | Primary handler. Assists way up. |
| Paolo Banchero | 52 | 35.0 | 1,811 | High usage, efficiency swings. Brings the ball up at times. |
| Desmond Bane | 68 | 34.1 | 2,320 | Light usage so far. |
| Jalen Suggs | 42 | 30.0 | 1,271 | Starter, off-ball corner role. |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 64 | 30.2 | 1,924 | Defensive anchor, more involved on offense. |
| Tristan da Silva | 68 | 26.8 | 1,812 | Bench gunner. |
| Jamal Cain | 64 | 19.5 | 1,240 | Lead bench wing. |
| Nikola Vucevic | 65 | 19.3 | 1,251 | Backup C in the finale after trailing Goga early. |
| Goga Bitadze | 58 | 16.4 | 956 | Backup C early. |
| Anthony Black | 65 | 29.6 | 1,927 | Missed the preseason. |
Preseason starting lineups
| Game | Opp | Starters | Out (ETR's noteworthy inactives) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | MEM | Jase Richardson, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr. | Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, Noah Penda |
| Oct 11 | CLE | Jase Richardson, Tristan da Silva, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr. | Anthony Black, Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs |
| Oct 13 | CLE | Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr. | Anthony Black |
Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.