Season simulation: 20,000 seasons ran 2026-10-28 15:40 · team shock ±2.5 net (t, 5 df) · vs FanDuel
Download: every outcome by team (sim_full.csv, 16 KB) · all 20,000 simulated seasons (wins + seed per team, champion, runner-up, conference and Cup winners; 1.2 MB) · every FanDuel price with fair value (futures.csv, 353 KB)
Season and playoff path % of simulated seasons · seed = regular-season finish · most / fewest wins count ties as dead heats
| Team | Wins | ± sd | 10th pct | Median | 90th pct | Avg seed | Play-in | Playoffs | 2nd round | Conf finals | Finals | Title | Runner-up | Most W | Fewest W | Playoff net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS East | 56.3 | 6.4 | 48 | 57 | 64 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 98.2 | 78.9 | 54.9 | 35.0 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 21.1 | +7.3 | |
| HOU West | 55.2 | 6.6 | 47 | 55 | 63 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 97.6 | 62.3 | 28.5 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 17.1 | +4.8 | |
| SAS West | 54.7 | 6.5 | 47 | 55 | 62 | 3.2 | 7.3 | 97.7 | 71.6 | 41.8 | 22.1 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 14.0 | +6.9 | |
| OKC West | 54.3 | 6.6 | 46 | 55 | 62 | 3.3 | 8.0 | 98.1 | 81.6 | 60.2 | 42.1 | 28.7 | 13.4 | 13.7 | +9.2 | |
| NYK East | 51.4 | 6.7 | 43 | 52 | 60 | 4.0 | 14.4 | 93.7 | 65.2 | 38.6 | 20.6 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 6.3 | +5.9 | |
| DET East | 51.1 | 6.8 | 43 | 51 | 59 | 4.1 | 15.6 | 92.1 | 53.6 | 24.8 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 0.1 | +4.0 |
| DEN West | 48.5 | 6.9 | 40 | 49 | 57 | 5.3 | 28.6 | 89.4 | 44.7 | 18.9 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 0.1 | +4.3 |
| MIN West | 48.4 | 6.9 | 40 | 49 | 57 | 5.3 | 29.2 | 89.3 | 43.4 | 18.3 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 0.1 | +4.2 |
| POR West | 48.0 | 6.9 | 39 | 48 | 57 | 5.5 | 31.2 | 87.4 | 37.3 | 13.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 0.1 | +3.3 |
| PHI East | 47.8 | 6.9 | 39 | 48 | 56 | 5.4 | 28.3 | 84.6 | 46.9 | 22.8 | 10.6 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.1 | +4.3 |
| LAL West | 47.2 | 6.9 | 39 | 47 | 56 | 5.8 | 34.8 | 84.8 | 31.2 | 10.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 0.1 | +2.5 |
| TOR East | 46.9 | 6.9 | 38 | 47 | 55 | 5.8 | 32.4 | 82.3 | 45.3 | 22.4 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.1 | +4.4 |
| CLE East | 46.9 | 7.0 | 38 | 47 | 55 | 5.8 | 32.7 | 79.7 | 34.2 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.1 | +2.2 |
| ATL East | 43.4 | 7.0 | 35 | 43 | 52 | 7.2 | 46.5 | 63.0 | 19.8 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | +0.6 |
| ORL East | 42.5 | 7.1 | 34 | 43 | 51 | 7.6 | 47.0 | 56.3 | 14.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -0.7 |
| GSW West | 41.2 | 6.9 | 33 | 41 | 50 | 8.1 | 58.0 | 58.6 | 16.3 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | +1.4 |
| CHA East | 40.7 | 7.0 | 32 | 41 | 49 | 8.4 | 50.0 | 47.2 | 12.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.4 |
| IND East | 40.3 | 7.0 | 32 | 40 | 49 | 8.6 | 49.8 | 46.0 | 14.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.5 |
| MIA East | 40.3 | 7.0 | 32 | 40 | 49 | 8.6 | 50.4 | 46.4 | 13.9 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | +0.5 |
| PHX West | 39.5 | 7.1 | 31 | 40 | 48 | 8.7 | 58.0 | 42.2 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | -3.0 |
| MEM West | 34.8 | 6.8 | 26 | 35 | 43 | 10.3 | 44.0 | 20.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | -3.5 |
| LAC West | 32.7 | 6.9 | 24 | 33 | 41 | 11.1 | 33.1 | 13.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.1 | -4.5 | ||
| DAL West | 31.4 | 6.8 | 23 | 31 | 40 | 11.5 | 26.5 | 9.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.9 | -5.3 | |
| WAS East | 29.1 | 6.6 | 21 | 29 | 37 | 12.5 | 11.4 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 5.0 | -5.2 |
| UTA West | 29.1 | 6.6 | 21 | 29 | 37 | 12.3 | 16.3 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 5.1 | -6.5 | |||
| NOP West | 28.9 | 6.7 | 21 | 29 | 37 | 12.3 | 16.9 | 5.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 5.9 | -6.1 | ||||
| CHI East | 27.8 | 6.6 | 20 | 28 | 36 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 7.3 | -6.5 | |||
| BKN East | 25.7 | 6.5 | 18 | 25 | 34 | 13.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 12.6 | -6.6 | |||
| MIL East | 25.2 | 6.3 | 17 | 25 | 33 | 13.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 14.0 | -7.4 | ||||
| SAC West | 20.5 | 6.0 | 13 | 20 | 28 | 14.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 41.4 | -10.5 |
Win distribution chance of finishing with at least this many wins
| Team | Avg | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | 40+ | 45+ | 50+ | 55+ | 60+ | 65+ | 70+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 56.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.9 | 99.7 | 99.0 | 96.1 | 86.7 | 63.3 | 31.3 | 8.9 | 1.5 |
| HOU | 55.2 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.9 | 99.5 | 98.5 | 94.8 | 82.2 | 56.2 | 25.8 | 6.6 | 1.1 |
| SAS | 54.7 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.8 | 99.5 | 98.4 | 94.1 | 80.4 | 52.8 | 22.0 | 5.3 | 0.8 |
| OKC | 54.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.9 | 99.5 | 98.3 | 93.1 | 78.5 | 50.0 | 21.2 | 5.2 | 0.9 |
| NYK | 51.4 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.6 | 98.9 | 95.9 | 86.1 | 63.2 | 32.1 | 10.3 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| DET | 51.1 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.9 | 99.6 | 98.7 | 95.4 | 84.8 | 60.9 | 31.2 | 9.9 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| DEN | 48.5 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.8 | 99.4 | 97.5 | 91.0 | 73.2 | 45.0 | 18.4 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| MIN | 48.4 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.8 | 99.2 | 97.5 | 90.8 | 73.0 | 43.9 | 18.2 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| POR | 48.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.3 | 97.3 | 89.5 | 70.2 | 41.0 | 16.1 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| PHI | 47.8 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.8 | 99.2 | 96.9 | 89.1 | 69.8 | 39.9 | 15.3 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| LAL | 47.2 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.7 | 99.2 | 96.6 | 87.8 | 66.6 | 37.1 | 13.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| TOR | 46.9 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.8 | 98.9 | 96.1 | 86.5 | 64.9 | 35.1 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| CLE | 46.9 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.7 | 99.0 | 95.9 | 86.3 | 64.6 | 35.5 | 12.7 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| ATL | 43.4 | 99.9 | 99.8 | 99.4 | 97.6 | 90.7 | 72.4 | 43.2 | 18.1 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| ORL | 42.5 | 99.9 | 99.7 | 99.1 | 96.7 | 87.6 | 67.2 | 38.8 | 15.4 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| GSW | 41.2 | 100.0 | 99.8 | 99.0 | 95.7 | 84.2 | 60.1 | 30.9 | 11.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | |
| CHA | 40.7 | 99.9 | 99.7 | 98.8 | 94.8 | 82.4 | 57.0 | 28.7 | 9.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| IND | 40.3 | 99.9 | 99.7 | 98.6 | 94.3 | 81.0 | 54.5 | 25.9 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| MIA | 40.3 | 99.9 | 99.6 | 98.5 | 94.1 | 81.2 | 54.9 | 25.8 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| PHX | 39.5 | 99.9 | 99.6 | 98.2 | 92.8 | 77.3 | 50.1 | 23.1 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| MEM | 34.8 | 99.8 | 98.8 | 94.0 | 79.1 | 50.9 | 23.0 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| LAC | 32.7 | 99.6 | 97.5 | 89.1 | 68.2 | 38.6 | 15.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | ||
| DAL | 31.4 | 99.4 | 96.5 | 85.8 | 60.9 | 30.8 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | ||
| WAS | 29.1 | 99.0 | 93.7 | 76.5 | 46.4 | 19.1 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| UTA | 29.1 | 98.9 | 93.6 | 76.0 | 45.9 | 18.9 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | ||
| NOP | 28.9 | 98.6 | 92.8 | 74.9 | 45.4 | 19.0 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |||
| CHI | 27.8 | 98.1 | 90.7 | 69.2 | 38.0 | 14.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |||
| BKN | 25.7 | 96.6 | 84.0 | 55.9 | 25.9 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |||
| MIL | 25.2 | 96.3 | 82.4 | 53.1 | 22.6 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | ||||
| SAC | 20.5 | 85.6 | 54.7 | 23.2 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
East seeds chance of each regular-season seed · green 1-6, orange play-in 7-10, red 11-15
| Team | Avg | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 2.4 | 43.5 | 23.2 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||
| NYK | 4.0 | 15.6 | 18.7 | 16.9 | 13.8 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| DET | 4.1 | 15.1 | 18.3 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| PHI | 5.4 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| TOR | 5.8 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| CLE | 5.8 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| ATL | 7.2 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| ORL | 7.6 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| CHA | 8.4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 14.5 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| IND | 8.6 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 13.9 | 14.6 | 13.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| MIA | 8.6 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 14.2 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| WAS | 12.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 11.2 | 21.7 | 22.0 | 18.4 | 13.8 |
| CHI | 12.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 8.9 | 18.5 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 18.7 | |
| BKN | 13.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 6.0 | 13.1 | 20.2 | 25.2 | 30.0 | |
| MIL | 13.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 11.8 | 19.1 | 26.1 | 33.4 |
West seeds chance of each regular-season seed · green 1-6, orange play-in 7-10, red 11-15
| Team | Avg | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 3.0 | 28.6 | 21.9 | 16.7 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| SAS | 3.2 | 23.5 | 22.5 | 18.1 | 13.1 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | ||
| OKC | 3.3 | 23.6 | 21.0 | 17.4 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| DEN | 5.3 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 13.9 | 14.8 | 13.8 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| MIN | 5.3 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 13.4 | 14.3 | 14.4 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| POR | 5.5 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| LAL | 5.8 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 14.7 | 14.6 | 14.1 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| GSW | 8.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 13.9 | 16.5 | 15.8 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| PHX | 8.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 15.6 | 17.2 | 13.9 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| MEM | 10.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 8.8 | 13.2 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 14.2 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 |
| LAC | 11.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 14.1 | 16.9 | 16.6 | 14.4 | 10.8 | 4.4 |
| DAL | 11.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 12.1 | 15.6 | 17.6 | 17.4 | 14.2 | 6.2 |
| UTA | 12.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 12.4 | 16.7 | 21.3 | 21.9 | 10.0 |
| NOP | 12.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 12.6 | 16.0 | 20.1 | 21.9 | 11.1 |
| SAC | 14.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 8.3 | 20.0 | 64.2 |
Division finish chance of each place in the division
| Team | Wins | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic | ||||||
| BOS | 56.3 | 58.5 | 25.1 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 0.1 |
| NYK | 51.4 | 22.0 | 34.7 | 26.1 | 16.6 | 0.6 |
| PHI | 47.8 | 10.5 | 21.6 | 32.0 | 34.4 | 1.4 |
| TOR | 46.9 | 8.9 | 18.4 | 30.5 | 40.6 | 1.6 |
| BKN | 25.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 96.2 |
| Central | ||||||
| DET | 51.1 | 62.3 | 28.0 | 8.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| CLE | 46.9 | 29.5 | 47.2 | 20.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| IND | 40.3 | 7.7 | 22.7 | 57.1 | 10.1 | 2.4 |
| CHI | 27.8 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 9.1 | 53.0 | 36.0 |
| MIL | 25.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 4.9 | 33.6 | 60.9 |
| Southeast | ||||||
| ATL | 43.4 | 34.1 | 25.9 | 21.6 | 14.3 | 4.1 |
| ORL | 42.5 | 28.1 | 26.1 | 22.0 | 18.2 | 5.5 |
| CHA | 40.7 | 19.4 | 23.2 | 25.2 | 24.6 | 7.6 |
| MIA | 40.3 | 17.3 | 22.4 | 25.7 | 26.0 | 8.6 |
| WAS | 29.1 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 17.0 | 74.1 |
| Northwest | ||||||
| OKC | 54.3 | 52.3 | 25.4 | 14.3 | 7.5 | 0.5 |
| DEN | 48.5 | 16.3 | 26.2 | 27.8 | 27.5 | 2.2 |
| MIN | 48.4 | 16.3 | 24.8 | 28.5 | 28.2 | 2.2 |
| POR | 48.0 | 15.0 | 23.3 | 28.3 | 31.0 | 2.3 |
| UTA | 29.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 5.7 | 92.8 |
| Pacific | ||||||
| LAL | 47.2 | 61.7 | 24.9 | 10.3 | 2.9 | 0.2 |
| GSW | 41.2 | 20.1 | 35.9 | 30.1 | 12.8 | 1.1 |
| PHX | 39.5 | 15.1 | 29.8 | 35.6 | 17.7 | 1.8 |
| LAC | 32.7 | 2.9 | 9.1 | 22.6 | 57.1 | 8.3 |
| SAC | 20.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 9.6 | 88.5 |
| Southwest | ||||||
| HOU | 55.2 | 52.6 | 44.3 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| SAS | 54.7 | 46.5 | 50.3 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| MEM | 34.8 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 49.8 | 30.3 | 16.1 |
| DAL | 31.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 27.4 | 38.1 | 33.0 |
| NOP | 28.9 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 17.6 | 30.9 | 50.6 |
NBA Cup by group the 60 Cup group games (4 per team) · order: record, head-to-head among all tied teams, group point differential · wild card = best 2nd place per conference · bracket: QF Dec 4-5 (1 hosts the wild card, 2 hosts 3), SF Dec 8-9 at the higher seed, final Dec 11 neutral in Indianapolis
| Team | Cup W | Pt diff | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | Wild card | Quarters | Semis | Final | Cup title | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Group A | ||||||||||||||
| DET | 2.64 | +22.9 | 38.0 | 27.4 | 17.8 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 12.4 | 50.4 | 27.3 | 14.0 | 7.1 | ||
| TOR | 2.42 | +15.1 | 28.5 | 27.2 | 22.0 | 14.1 | 8.2 | 11.2 | 39.7 | 20.0 | 9.7 | 4.6 | ||
| ORL | 2.19 | +7.0 | 21.5 | 24.0 | 24.7 | 18.0 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 30.1 | 13.8 | 6.0 | 2.6 | ||
| BKN | 1.40 | -21.0 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 18.1 | 26.8 | 37.0 | 2.3 | 9.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | ||
| MIL | 1.34 | -24.0 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 17.4 | 29.9 | 37.3 | 2.0 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | ||
| East Group B | ||||||||||||||
| NYK | 2.44 | +14.8 | 33.2 | 25.1 | 18.1 | 13.3 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 41.9 | 24.6 | 13.7 | 7.2 | ||
| PHI | 2.06 | +1.9 | 21.5 | 20.9 | 20.5 | 19.2 | 17.9 | 5.5 | 27.0 | 13.7 | 6.5 | 3.1 | ||
| CLE | 2.05 | +1.6 | 19.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 20.0 | 17.4 | 6.2 | 25.8 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 2.8 | ||
| MIA | 1.77 | -7.6 | 13.1 | 17.6 | 20.9 | 23.7 | 24.6 | 4.2 | 17.3 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | ||
| IND | 1.67 | -10.7 | 12.6 | 14.8 | 18.9 | 23.8 | 29.8 | 3.2 | 15.8 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | ||
| East Group C | ||||||||||||||
| BOS | 2.96 | +34.4 | 51.7 | 26.6 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 13.6 | 65.3 | 41.8 | 25.7 | 14.6 | ||
| ATL | 2.23 | +7.8 | 19.8 | 28.6 | 24.3 | 16.4 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 30.4 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | ||
| CHA | 1.96 | -1.2 | 16.1 | 20.7 | 24.2 | 21.3 | 17.7 | 6.2 | 22.3 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | ||
| WAS | 1.48 | -18.5 | 7.4 | 12.4 | 20.2 | 26.5 | 33.5 | 2.7 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | ||
| CHI | 1.38 | -22.4 | 5.0 | 11.7 | 19.0 | 29.5 | 34.8 | 2.6 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | ||
| West Group A | ||||||||||||||
| HOU | 2.76 | +27.1 | 41.3 | 29.6 | 16.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 12.7 | 54.0 | 31.5 | 17.9 | 9.8 | ||
| DEN | 2.53 | +18.3 | 33.5 | 27.4 | 19.6 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 43.4 | 22.4 | 11.2 | 5.6 | ||
| PHX | 1.90 | -3.4 | 13.2 | 19.7 | 26.4 | 22.3 | 18.4 | 5.1 | 18.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | ||
| DAL | 1.40 | -20.9 | 6.1 | 11.3 | 18.7 | 29.5 | 34.4 | 2.0 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | ||
| UTA | 1.40 | -21.2 | 6.0 | 11.9 | 19.2 | 27.3 | 35.6 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | ||
| West Group B | ||||||||||||||
| OKC | 2.81 | +28.1 | 45.7 | 26.6 | 14.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 11.4 | 57.1 | 32.0 | 17.1 | 9.3 | ||
| MIN | 2.55 | +19.1 | 30.5 | 32.3 | 19.3 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 12.5 | 43.0 | 21.1 | 10.0 | 4.6 | ||
| MEM | 1.63 | -12.4 | 9.3 | 15.1 | 22.9 | 26.2 | 26.4 | 3.2 | 12.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | ||
| LAC | 1.53 | -16.3 | 8.0 | 12.8 | 21.9 | 27.4 | 29.9 | 2.5 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | ||
| NOP | 1.48 | -18.5 | 6.5 | 13.2 | 21.0 | 26.9 | 32.5 | 2.4 | 8.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | ||
| West Group C | ||||||||||||||
| SAS | 2.77 | +27.3 | 41.2 | 28.2 | 17.3 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 12.6 | 53.8 | 32.7 | 18.9 | 10.6 | ||
| POR | 2.29 | +10.1 | 23.9 | 25.0 | 23.0 | 17.8 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 32.9 | 16.6 | 7.8 | 3.7 | ||
| LAL | 2.26 | +10.0 | 21.5 | 24.6 | 25.6 | 20.3 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 30.7 | 15.1 | 6.9 | 3.3 | ||
| GSW | 1.86 | -4.0 | 11.5 | 18.4 | 25.8 | 29.4 | 14.8 | 5.3 | 16.7 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | ||
| SAC | 0.81 | -43.5 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 8.3 | 23.4 | 62.7 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |||
Win streaks longest winning streak over the whole season (games already played included)
| Team | Median longest | 6+ | 8+ | 10+ | 12+ | 15+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 9 | 93.1 | 73.6 | 47.3 | 27.9 | 11.7 |
| SAS | 9 | 92.6 | 69.0 | 42.0 | 24.0 | 10.0 |
| HOU | 9 | 93.4 | 65.3 | 37.9 | 20.4 | 7.9 |
| OKC | 8 | 89.6 | 60.3 | 34.8 | 17.4 | 6.2 |
| NYK | 8 | 86.5 | 57.1 | 30.3 | 15.1 | 5.7 |
| DET | 7 | 79.7 | 46.4 | 22.7 | 10.2 | 3.4 |
| DEN | 7 | 77.1 | 45.4 | 21.0 | 9.5 | 2.9 |
| MIN | 7 | 73.4 | 39.3 | 17.5 | 7.8 | 2.4 |
| POR | 7 | 74.1 | 36.8 | 14.8 | 6.4 | 1.9 |
| ATL | 6 | 58.1 | 24.6 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 |
| MIA | 6 | 52.5 | 19.5 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| ORL | 6 | 55.0 | 22.1 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 |
| GSW | 6 | 51.3 | 19.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| CLE | 6 | 69.5 | 33.1 | 13.9 | 5.5 | 1.5 |
| LAL | 6 | 67.6 | 31.0 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.5 |
| PHI | 6 | 67.9 | 32.8 | 14.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 |
| TOR | 6 | 67.7 | 32.9 | 13.8 | 5.6 | 1.7 |
| CHA | 5 | 41.9 | 13.6 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| IND | 5 | 46.1 | 15.6 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| PHX | 5 | 43.1 | 14.9 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| MEM | 5 | 32.3 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| UTA | 4 | 11.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| CHI | 4 | 10.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| NOP | 4 | 12.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| LAC | 4 | 20.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| WAS | 4 | 13.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| DAL | 4 | 14.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| BKN | 3 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| MIL | 3 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| SAC | 3 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Each simulated season: a fat-tailed rating shock per team, every remaining game with that date's team nets (who is out), the NBA Cup, play-in and best-of-7 playoffs with playoff nets. All columns are shares of simulated seasons; the downloads hold the same numbers and the raw seasons.