NBA 2026-27 Wins Model

built 2026-10-28 15:40 · darko 2026-10-28 15:40 · rosters 2026-10-28 15:40 · schedule 2026-10-28 15:40 · build 2026-10-28 15:40 · etr 2026-10-28 15:40 · monster_ros 2026-10-28 15:40 · fanduel 2026-10-28 15:40 · sim 2026-10-28 15:40

PHI 76ers #10 of 30

Projected wins
48.0
FanDuel 50.5 (o-135 / u+110) · record 3-1
Net rating
+2.52
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off +3.41 · def -0.01
Next game / full strength
+5.91 / +2.48
2026-10-28 @ IND (Monster daily minutes) · out: Jabari Walker; Dominick Barlow
DARKO vs market
+2.06 / +2.98
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 47.1 / 48.9
Minutes covered
18,720
of 18,720 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
16
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
-0.03
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
92% ETR
3% MPG from ETR FPPG · 5% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
108 pts
38 reb · 23 ast · 11.4 3pm · 92% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
PlayerETR slotPosAgeGPMPGMinPTSREBASTSTLBLK3PMTOFG% zFT% zFPPG9-cat rkShare %DPMMktRatingODO ctbD ctbContrib
Tyrese MaxeyPG1G256636.92,44225.63.85.71.50.63.12.0-0.49+1.2643.1513.0+2.56+2.85+2.70+2.67-0.11+1.73-0.07+1.76
Jaylen BrownSF1G306635.72,34324.06.94.21.20.42.22.7+0.08-0.1040.54912.5+2.19+2.85+2.52+2.90-0.71+1.82-0.45+1.58
VJ EdgecombeQSG1G216834.22,32915.65.83.81.40.52.21.6-0.59+0.2832.44512.4-0.44-1.11-0.78-0.33-0.11-0.21-0.07-0.48
LeBron JamesPF1F415832.71,88619.16.87.11.00.61.42.6+0.70-0.3140.16510.1+1.82+2.86+2.34+1.73+0.09+0.88+0.04+1.18
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeSG2G336523.51,5336.82.41.50.90.31.10.8-0.36+0.1914.72988.2-0.57-0.43-0.50-0.85+0.28-0.35+0.12-0.20
Anfernee SimonsPG2G276423.61,50111.72.22.20.50.12.21.2-0.61+0.2818.22778.0-2.13+0.09-1.02-0.15-1.98-0.06-0.79-0.41
Dean WadePF2F296024.41,4695.34.51.10.70.41.20.4-0.16-0.0615.12627.8+0.65+0.72+0.68-0.51+1.16-0.20+0.45+0.27
Joel EmbiidINC1C324432.01,40825.79.13.70.81.21.42.9+0.23+1.6845.3527.5+3.97+4.14+4.05+2.66+1.30+1.00+0.49+1.52
Dominick BarlowD · back 10-30PF3F236220.01,2356.74.91.10.70.70.30.7+0.25-0.2217.62706.6-0.28-0.70-0.49-0.94+0.66-0.31+0.22-0.16
Adem BonaC2C236017.31,0396.05.70.60.51.30.10.8+0.30-0.3018.22685.6-1.10-4.25-2.68-1.81+0.71-0.51+0.20-0.74
Justin Edwardsmpg from ETR FPPGSF2F224911.5569–––––––––11.3–3.0-0.98-2.81-1.90-0.41-0.57-0.06-0.09-0.29
Jabari WalkerQETR depth fillC3F24686.8461–––––––––––2.5-0.81-1.55-1.18-0.80-0.02-0.10-0.00-0.15
Labaron PhilonETR depth fillPG3G20435.5240–––––––––––1.3-2.12-2.29-2.20-1.50-0.62-0.10-0.04-0.14
Rayan RupertETR depth fillSG3G22215.5114–––––––––––0.6-2.60-4.16-3.38-2.13-0.48-0.06-0.01-0.10
Caleb LoveETR depth fillSG4G25164.875–––––––––––0.4-3.13-3.07-3.10-1.35-1.77-0.03-0.04-0.06
Tacko FallINJ 1g · back 10-30C30155.075–––––––––––0.4-0.52-2.62-1.57-2.25+1.73-0.04+0.03-0.03
Team18,720107.937.923.17.04.211.411.5100+3.39+3.66+3.40-0.00+3.54

PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.

Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
PlayerInjRiskOut untilGames outPlayedMon %ETR %Avail %Next %Exp GPSeason GETR GMon GETR MPGMon MPGRole MPGExp minMonster note
Dominick BarlowDmed2026-10-3010907180061.761.7586921.420.020.01,235Doubtful - low back stress reaction (Injury) - Est. Return 10/30 - status for next game not specified yet
Tacko FallINJ 1ghigh2026-10-301020–20015.015.0–15–10.010.075Injured - left quadriceps strain (Injury) - Est. Return 10/30
Tyrese Maxeymed0488818510066.270.2676936.937.036.92,442
Jaylen Brownmed0488808410065.769.7666935.436.035.72,343
VJ EdgecombeQmed0388868710068.171.1706934.434.034.22,329Questionable - abdominal contusion (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet
LeBron Jameshigh0380687410057.860.8566232.333.032.61,886
Joel EmbiidINextreme0356555610043.946.9464432.032.032.01,408Playing - right plantar fasciitis management (Injury Maintenance)
Dean Wadehigh0283707710060.262.2576521.927.024.41,469
Anfernee Simonsmed0488748110063.767.7626922.325.023.71,501
Kentavious Caldwell-Popemed0488788310065.269.2656923.224.023.61,533
Adem Bonahigh0483707710060.264.2596519.715.017.41,039
Justin Edwardsmed00567264049.449.4564414.813.013.9569
Jabari WalkerQmed0388–88068.171.1–6912.115.013.5461Questionable - left knee soreness (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet
Labaron Philonmed0256–56043.445.4–4412.110.011.0240
Rayan Rupertmed0027–27020.720.7–2112.110.011.0114

Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.

ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
Tyrese MaxeyGallagher #6One of the league's best C&S guys will fit in just fine despite usage/handling hit; Nurse can't help himself
Jaylen BrownGallagher #44Might need an Embiid injury to get enough usage to be a top-25 guy but he'll fill it up with Nurse running up mins
VJ EdgecombeGallagher #68Will still play a ton and has shown he can scale up in the games the 76ers are shorthanded
LeBron JamesGallagher #60March usage fell below 22% in March and should be in the lower 20s, but will still fill stat sheets at 41
Joel EmbiidGallagher #53Worth the risk for teams picking 9-12 in draft, but just so unlikely he plays 65 games
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Tyrese Maxey
36.9 mpg × 66 g = 2,442
Anfernee Simons
23.6 mpg × 64 g = 1,501
Labaron Philon
5.5 mpg × 43 g = 240
SG
VJ Edgecombe
34.2 mpg × 68 g = 2,329
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
23.5 mpg × 65 g = 1,533
Rayan Rupert 2W
5.5 mpg × 21 g = 114
Caleb Love 2W
4.8 mpg × 16 g = 75
SF
Jaylen Brown
35.7 mpg × 66 g = 2,343
Justin Edwards
11.5 mpg × 49 g = 569
PF
LeBron James
32.7 mpg × 58 g = 1,886
Dean Wade
24.4 mpg × 60 g = 1,469
Dominick Barlow
20.0 mpg × 62 g = 1,235
C
Joel Embiid
32.0 mpg × 44 g = 1,408
Adem Bona
17.3 mpg × 60 g = 1,039
Jabari Walker
6.8 mpg × 68 g = 461

Not on ETR's depth chart: Tacko Fall

Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
DateOpp (net that game)Our netWin %ResultOur players out
2026-10-20@ NYK +5.035%W 106-100
2026-10-22vs CLE +2.358%W 114-106
2026-10-24vs MIL -6.482%W 127-116
2026-10-25vs DET +3.754%L 93-106
2026-10-28@ IND -2.9+5.970%Monster tonight Jabari Walker; Dominick Barlow
2026-10-30vs NYK +5.0+2.549%
2026-10-31@ CHA -0.2+2.551%
2026-11-02vs CHI -5.2+2.579%
2026-11-04@ DET +2.2+2.544%
2026-11-06@ CLE +2.4+2.543%
2026-11-08@ CHI -5.2+2.567%
2026-11-10vs BOS +6.3+2.545%
2026-11-12vs TOR +0.0+2.565%
2026-11-15vs IND -0.0+2.565%
2026-11-16@ BKN -5.7+2.568%
2026-11-18@ ORL -0.2+2.551%
2026-11-21vs MIL -6.5+2.582%
2026-11-23vs POR +2.4+2.557%
2026-11-25vs MIA +0.5+2.563%
2026-11-27@ IND -0.0+2.551%
2026-11-28@ HOU +5.3+2.534%
2026-12-01vs MEM -3.4+2.574%
2026-12-02vs DEN +3.4+2.554%
2026-12-12vs ORL +1.0+2.562%
2026-12-14@ ORL +1.0+2.547%
2026-12-17vs DAL -4.3+2.577%
2026-12-21@ CHA -0.2+2.551%
2026-12-23vs HOU +5.3+2.548%
2026-12-25@ LAL +2.3+2.543%
2026-12-27@ LAC -3.2+2.561%
2026-12-29@ SAC -8.4+2.575%
2026-12-30@ PHX -0.8+2.553%
2027-01-01@ MIL -6.5+2.570%
2027-01-04vs ATL +0.8+2.562%
2027-01-06vs OKC +4.7+2.550%
2027-01-08vs MIA +0.5+2.563%
2027-01-10@ TOR +2.8+2.542%
2027-01-12vs WAS -5.1+2.578%
2027-01-14vs BKN -5.7+2.580%
2027-01-16vs MIN +2.8+2.556%
2027-01-18@ ATL +0.8+2.548%
2027-01-19vs IND -0.0+2.565%
2027-01-21@ BOS +6.3+2.531%
2027-01-23@ CHI -5.2+2.566%
2027-01-25vs LAC -3.2+2.574%
2027-01-27vs SAC -8.4+2.585%
2027-01-28@ NOP -4.6+2.565%
2027-01-30@ MIA +0.5+2.549%
2027-02-01vs NOP -4.6+2.577%
2027-02-03@ MEM -3.4+2.561%
2027-02-05vs DET +3.8+2.553%
2027-02-07vs BOS +6.3+2.545%
2027-02-08vs BKN -5.7+2.580%
2027-02-11vs NYK +5.0+2.549%
2027-02-13@ OKC +4.7+2.536%
2027-02-15@ DAL -4.3+2.564%
2027-02-17vs PHX -0.8+2.567%
2027-02-25@ BKN -5.7+2.568%
2027-02-27@ NYK +5.0+2.535%
2027-03-01@ CLE +2.3+2.543%
2027-03-03vs CHA -0.2+2.566%
2027-03-04vs LAL +2.3+2.558%
2027-03-07@ BOS +6.3+2.531%
2027-03-08vs UTA -4.4+2.577%
2027-03-11@ SAS +5.9+2.532%
2027-03-13@ MIN +2.8+2.542%
2027-03-15vs TOR +2.8+2.556%
2027-03-17vs CHI -5.2+2.579%
2027-03-18@ WAS -5.1+2.566%
2027-03-21vs SAS +5.9+2.546%
2027-03-23@ UTA -4.4+2.564%
2027-03-24@ GSW +1.2+2.547%
2027-03-26@ POR +2.8+2.542%
2027-03-28@ DEN +3.4+2.540%
2027-03-31vs GSW +1.2+2.561%
2027-04-02@ WAS -5.1+2.566%
2027-04-04vs ATL +0.8+2.562%
2027-04-06@ TOR +2.8+2.542%
2027-04-08@ MIA +0.5+2.549%
2027-04-11vs CHA -0.2+2.566%
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)

Bottom line: The star five (Maxey, Edgecombe, Brown, LeBron, Embiid) spreads usage, with LeBron as a low-usage playmaker. Center depth collapsed with Hukporti's Achilles injury, leaving Adem Bona and Jabari Walker as the backups.

Usage & ball-handling
  • LeBron James: low usage (ETR's guide is the 21.5% he had with the Lakers in March), but he pushes the tempo and racks up assists. He ran with the second unit more than the other stars.
  • Tyrese Maxey: 25.0% usage, losing some handling to LeBron.
  • Jaylen Brown: 22.6% usage for the game with no turnovers, after a quiet first half.
  • Joel Embiid: rough debut with eight turnovers, slow and sloppy.
  • With the stars out, VJ Edgecombe (12/4/7) and Brown (22/2/2) had all the usage they wanted.
  • ETR moves: cut LeBron's usage and raised his passing.
Minutes & rotation
  • Starters: Maxey, Edgecombe, Brown, LeBron, Embiid.
  • Ariel Hukporti likely tore his Achilles and is out for the season (ETR took him to zero). Adem Bona (left foot) is the clear C2 and should play in the opener, taking most of the non-Embiid minutes. Jabari Walker backed up Embiid in the finale, and Dominick Barlow and Dean Wade also gain minutes.
  • Nurse ran just eight deep until mid-second quarter (Philon at 9:41, Justin Edwards at 6:30).
  • LeBron was cut two games for a chronic foot issue.
  • Edgecombe (20.5 first-half minutes) and Wade (20.3) played heavy minutes when the frontcourt sat.
Who plays together
  • LeBron's minutes lean toward the second unit, so a star is always on the floor.
  • Nurse didn't go small behind Embiid; he kept a big (Walker) out there.
  • Wade played center vs KAT in one game.
Pace & shot selection
  • Philadelphia played fast off rebounds, with Maxey, LeBron and Brown all pushing.
  • ETR: "only one basketball" is the main concern, though touches were fairly spread early.

Player by player

PlayerModel GPModel MPGModel minPreseason read
Tyrese Maxey6636.92,44225% usage, slightly less handling.
Joel Embiid4432.01,408Starting C. Sloppy debut.
LeBron James5832.71,886Low-usage playmaker. Foot issue (two games docked).
Jaylen Brown6635.72,343About 23% usage, efficient.
VJ Edgecombe6834.22,329Starter. Big role when stars rest.
Adem Bona6017.31,039C2 after the Hukporti injury. Foot issue.
Jabari Walker686.8461Backup C in the finale.
Dean Wade6024.41,469Forward/backup C, heavy minutes when stars sat.
Dominick Barlow6220.01,235Gains minutes from the frontcourt injuries.
Ariel Hukportinot in model–––Achilles. Likely out for the season.

Preseason starting lineups

GameOppStartersOut (ETR's noteworthy inactives)
Oct 5NYKVJ Edgecombe, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jaylen Brown, Dean Wade, Ariel HukportiTyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, LeBron James, Adem Bona, Anfernee Simons, Dominick Barlow
Oct 8BKNTyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, Joel EmbiidAdem Bona, Dominick Barlow
Oct 10BOSTyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Justin Edwards, Dean Wade, Jabari WalkerLeBron James, Jaylen Brown, Joel Embiid, Adem Bona, Anfernee Simons, Dominick Barlow

Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.