MIA Heat #19 of 30
Projected wins
40.3
FanDuel 42.5 (o+115 / u-140) · record 0-4
Net rating
+0.51
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off +0.82 · def -0.21
Next game / full strength
+2.47 / +0.48
2026-10-28 @ ATL (Monster daily minutes) · out: Simone Fontecchio
DARKO vs market
-0.73 / +1.75
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 37.4 / 43.1
Minutes covered
18,720
of 18,720 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
17
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
-0.12
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
89% ETR
9% MPG from ETR FPPG · 2% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
101 pts
36 reb · 24 ast · 11.2 3pm · 84% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
| Player | ETR slot | Pos | Age | GP | MPG | Min | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TO | FG% z | FT% z | FPPG | 9-cat rk | Share % | DPM | Mkt | Rating | O | D | O ctb | D ctb | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | C1 | C | 29 | 68 | 32.7 | 2,209 | 19.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.42 | -0.10 | 39.9 | 30 | 11.8 | +2.98 | +1.99 | +2.48 | +1.81 | +1.17 | +1.07 | +0.69 | +1.47 |
| Davion Mitchell | PG1 | G | 28 | 69 | 31.4 | 2,155 | 9.9 | 2.6 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | -0.08 | -0.13 | 24.7 | 138 | 11.5 | +0.05 | +0.12 | +0.09 | +0.07 | -0.02 | +0.04 | -0.01 | +0.05 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | PF1 | F | 31 | 62 | 32.8 | 2,025 | 30.4 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 3.3 | +3.69 | -3.45 | 56.3 | 16 | 10.8 | +3.95 | +5.94 | +4.95 | +3.33 | +0.62 | +1.80 | +0.33 | +2.67 |
| Pelle Larsson | PG2 | G | 25 | 67 | 29.7 | 1,976 | 10.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | +0.01 | -0.03 | 21.9 | 217 | 10.6 | -0.00 | -0.54 | -0.27 | -0.10 | +0.10 | -0.05 | +0.05 | -0.14 |
| Andrew Wiggins | SF1 | F | 31 | 65 | 30.2 | 1,954 | 15.3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 | -0.41 | -0.05 | 29.7 | 93 | 10.4 | -0.92 | -0.46 | -0.69 | -0.65 | -0.27 | -0.34 | -0.14 | -0.36 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | SG2 | G | 34 | 66 | 24.3 | 1,607 | 12.4 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | -0.76 | +0.23 | 19.2 | 220 | 8.6 | -0.92 | -0.71 | -0.82 | +0.23 | -1.16 | +0.10 | -0.50 | -0.35 |
| Bobby Portis | C2 | F | 31 | 68 | 23.7 | 1,605 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | -0.08 | -0.03 | 24.3 | 160 | 8.6 | -1.21 | +0.03 | -0.59 | -0.48 | -0.73 | -0.21 | -0.31 | -0.25 |
| Klay Thompson | SG1 | G | 36 | 60 | 21.7 | 1,305 | 12.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | -1.07 | +0.15 | 18.9 | 240 | 7.0 | -1.90 | -0.20 | -1.05 | -0.97 | -0.93 | -0.34 | -0.33 | -0.37 |
| Dru Smith | PG3 | G | 28 | 54 | 17.6 | 953 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -0.23 | +0.08 | 18.8 | 197 | 5.1 | -0.57 | -0.48 | -0.53 | -1.01 | +0.44 | -0.26 | +0.11 | -0.13 |
| Nikola Jovic | PF2 | F | 23 | 55 | 16.0 | 878 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 16.0 | – | 4.7 | -1.36 | -1.74 | -1.55 | -1.44 | +0.08 | -0.34 | +0.02 | -0.36 |
| Ryan Conwellmpg from ETR FPPG | SG3 | G | 22 | 45 | 16.9 | 768 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14.0 | – | 4.1 | -2.43 | -1.91 | -2.17 | -1.72 | -0.71 | -0.35 | -0.14 | -0.45 |
| Simone Fontecchiompg from ETR FPPG | SF2 | F | 30 | 60 | 7.3 | 442 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 13.6 | – | 2.4 | -0.16 | +0.82 | +0.33 | +0.08 | -0.23 | +0.01 | -0.03 | +0.04 |
| Myron Gardnermpg from ETR FPPG | SF3 | F | 25 | 40 | 9.8 | 393 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.1 | -0.55 | -0.64 | -0.60 | -0.84 | +0.29 | -0.09 | +0.03 | -0.06 |
| Nick RichardsETR depth fill | C3 | C | 28 | 41 | 6.3 | 260 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.4 | -2.08 | -2.40 | -2.24 | -2.33 | +0.25 | -0.16 | +0.02 | -0.16 |
| Keshad JohnsonETR depth fill | PF3 | F | 25 | 16 | 5.0 | 79 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | +0.17 | -0.23 | -0.03 | -0.14 | +0.31 | -0.00 | +0.01 | -0.00 |
| Tre DonaldsonETR depth fill | PG4 | G | 22 | 16 | 4.5 | 71 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -2.26 | – | -2.26 | -1.79 | -0.47 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| Vladislav Goldin | C | 25 | 16 | 2.5 | 39 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.2 | -3.18 | -1.76 | -2.47 | -2.93 | -0.25 | -0.03 | -0.00 | -0.03 | |
| Team | 18,720 | 101.1 | 35.7 | 24.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 100 | +0.60 | +2.44 | +0.82 | -0.22 | +1.52 |
PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.
Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
| Player | Inj | Risk | Out until | Games out | Played | Mon % | ETR % | Avail % | Next % | Exp GP | Season G | ETR G | Mon G | ETR MPG | Mon MPG | Role MPG | Exp min | Monster note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 74 | 79 | 100 | 61.7 | 65.7 | 62 | 65 | 32.6 | 33.0 | 32.8 | 2,025 | |||
| Bam Adebayo | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 85 | 86 | 100 | 67.6 | 71.6 | 70 | 69 | 32.3 | 33.0 | 32.7 | 2,209 | |||
| Davion Mitchell | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 87 | 88 | 100 | 68.6 | 72.6 | 72 | 69 | 29.7 | 33.0 | 31.4 | 2,155 | |||
| Andrew Wiggins | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 77 | 83 | 100 | 64.7 | 68.7 | 64 | 69 | 30.5 | 30.0 | 30.2 | 1,954 | |||
| Pelle Larsson | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 82 | 85 | 100 | 66.6 | 70.6 | 68 | 69 | 27.2 | 32.0 | 29.6 | 1,976 | |||
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 81 | 85 | 100 | 66.2 | 70.2 | 67 | 69 | 25.8 | 23.0 | 24.4 | 1,607 | |||
| Bobby Portis | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 85 | 86 | 100 | 67.6 | 71.6 | 70 | 69 | 22.5 | 25.0 | 23.7 | 1,605 | |||
| Klay Thompson | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 70 | 77 | 100 | 60.2 | 64.2 | 59 | 65 | 23.5 | 20.0 | 21.7 | 1,305 | |||
| Dru Smith | high | 0 | 2 | 83 | 55 | 69 | 100 | 54.3 | 56.3 | 45 | 65 | 19.2 | 16.0 | 17.6 | 953 | |||
| Ryan Conwell | med | 0 | 3 | 56 | 62 | 59 | 0 | 45.4 | 48.4 | 51 | 44 | 17.8 | 16.0 | 16.9 | 768 | |||
| Nikola Jovic | high | 0 | 3 | 83 | 59 | 71 | 0 | 54.8 | 57.8 | 49 | 65 | 17.1 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 878 | |||
| Myron Gardner | med | 0 | 2 | 56 | 47 | 52 | 0 | 40.0 | 42.0 | 39 | 44 | 20.0 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 393 | |||
| Simone Fontecchio | med | 0 | 2 | 88 | 68 | 78 | 0 | 60.2 | 62.2 | 55 | 69 | 17.4 | 12.0 | 14.7 | 442 | |||
| Nick Richards | high | 0 | 2 | 54 | – | 54 | 0 | 41.5 | 43.5 | – | 42 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 260 | |||
| Keshad Johnson | med | 0 | 0 | 20 | – | 20 | 0 | 15.8 | 15.8 | – | 16 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 79 |
Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.
ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
| Bam Adebayo | Gallagher #39 | Giannis should cut into points, rebounding and assists to make it really tough for a ceiling case |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Gallagher #8 | Minutes likely in check with pace boost, but could blow away our projection if not; some concern on calf |
| Andrew Wiggins | Gallagher #114 | Spo will need his on-ball/wing defense and injury to Giannis could add ceiling to boring mid-round pick in deep league |
| Nick Richards | Depth chart | Not a lock to make the team |
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Davion Mitchell
31.4 mpg × 69 g = 2,155
Pelle Larsson
29.7 mpg × 67 g = 1,976
Dru Smith
17.6 mpg × 54 g = 953
Tre Donaldson 2W
4.5 mpg × 16 g = 71
SG
Klay Thompson
21.7 mpg × 60 g = 1,305
Tim Hardaway Jr.
24.3 mpg × 66 g = 1,607
Ryan Conwell
16.9 mpg × 45 g = 768
SF
Andrew Wiggins
30.2 mpg × 65 g = 1,954
Simone Fontecchio
7.3 mpg × 60 g = 442
Myron Gardner
9.8 mpg × 40 g = 393
PF
Giannis Antetokounmpo
32.8 mpg × 62 g = 2,025
Nikola Jovic
16.0 mpg × 55 g = 878
Keshad Johnson 2W
5.0 mpg × 16 g = 79
C
Bam Adebayo
32.7 mpg × 68 g = 2,209
Bobby Portis
23.7 mpg × 68 g = 1,605
Nick Richards
6.3 mpg × 41 g = 260
Not on ETR's depth chart: Vladislav Goldin
Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
| Date | Opp (net that game) | Our net | Win % | Result | Our players out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | vs MIN +2.8 | 50% | L 106-131 | ||
| 2026-10-23 | vs DET +3.7 | 47% | L 111-128 | ||
| 2026-10-24 | @ CHA -0.3 | 45% | L 110-115 | ||
| 2026-10-26 | vs DAL -4.4 | 72% | L 109-113 | ||
| 2026-10-28 | @ ATL +2.3 | +2.5 | 43% | Monster tonight Simone Fontecchio | |
| 2026-10-30 | vs IND -0.5 | +0.5 | 60% | ||
| 2026-11-02 | @ LAL +2.8 | +0.5 | 36% | ||
| 2026-11-04 | @ LAC -4.0 | +0.5 | 57% | ||
| 2026-11-05 | @ GSW -0.3 | +0.5 | 45% | ||
| 2026-11-08 | @ SAC -8.2 | +0.5 | 69% | ||
| 2026-11-10 | @ UTA -4.7 | +0.5 | 59% | ||
| 2026-11-13 | vs CLE +2.3 | +0.5 | 52% | ||
| 2026-11-14 | vs DET +3.8 | +0.5 | 47% | ||
| 2026-11-16 | vs HOU +5.3 | +0.5 | 42% | ||
| 2026-11-18 | vs MIL -6.5 | +0.5 | 77% | ||
| 2026-11-22 | vs OKC +4.7 | +0.5 | 44% | ||
| 2026-11-25 | @ PHI +2.5 | +0.5 | 37% | ||
| 2026-11-27 | @ NYK +5.0 | +0.5 | 29% | ||
| 2026-11-29 | @ CLE +2.3 | +0.5 | 37% | ||
| 2026-12-01 | vs ATL +0.8 | +0.5 | 56% | ||
| 2026-12-03 | vs WAS -5.1 | +0.5 | 74% | ||
| 2026-12-12 | vs NYK +5.0 | +0.5 | 43% | ||
| 2026-12-14 | @ CHI -5.2 | +0.5 | 60% | ||
| 2026-12-16 | @ MEM -3.4 | +0.5 | 55% | ||
| 2026-12-18 | vs LAC -3.2 | +0.5 | 68% | ||
| 2026-12-20 | vs SAC -8.4 | +0.5 | 81% | ||
| 2026-12-21 | vs CHI -5.2 | +0.5 | 74% | ||
| 2026-12-23 | vs CHI -5.2 | +0.5 | 74% | ||
| 2026-12-25 | @ BOS +6.3 | +0.5 | 26% | ||
| 2026-12-27 | vs CHA -0.2 | +0.5 | 59% | ||
| 2026-12-29 | @ DAL -4.3 | +0.5 | 58% | ||
| 2026-12-31 | @ OKC +4.7 | +0.5 | 30% | ||
| 2027-01-02 | @ NOP -4.6 | +0.5 | 59% | ||
| 2027-01-05 | vs MEM -3.4 | +0.5 | 69% | ||
| 2027-01-07 | @ BKN -5.7 | +0.5 | 62% | ||
| 2027-01-08 | @ PHI +2.5 | +0.5 | 37% | ||
| 2027-01-10 | vs NOP -4.6 | +0.5 | 72% | ||
| 2027-01-12 | vs BKN -5.7 | +0.5 | 75% | ||
| 2027-01-14 | @ NYK +5.0 | +0.5 | 29% | ||
| 2027-01-15 | @ TOR +2.8 | +0.5 | 36% | ||
| 2027-01-17 | vs GSW -0.2 | +0.5 | 59% | ||
| 2027-01-19 | vs POR +2.4 | +0.5 | 51% | ||
| 2027-01-20 | @ SAS +5.9 | +0.5 | 27% | ||
| 2027-01-23 | vs ATL +0.8 | +0.5 | 56% | ||
| 2027-01-25 | @ BKN -5.7 | +0.5 | 62% | ||
| 2027-01-28 | @ MIL -6.5 | +0.5 | 64% | ||
| 2027-01-30 | vs PHI +2.5 | +0.5 | 51% | ||
| 2027-02-01 | @ IND +0.1 | +0.5 | 44% | ||
| 2027-02-02 | vs CHA -0.2 | +0.5 | 59% | ||
| 2027-02-04 | vs MIL -6.5 | +0.5 | 77% | ||
| 2027-02-06 | @ MIN +2.8 | +0.5 | 36% | ||
| 2027-02-08 | @ ATL +0.8 | +0.5 | 42% | ||
| 2027-02-10 | @ WAS -5.1 | +0.5 | 60% | ||
| 2027-02-12 | @ ORL +1.0 | +0.5 | 41% | ||
| 2027-02-14 | vs BKN -5.7 | +0.5 | 75% | ||
| 2027-02-15 | vs SAS +5.9 | +0.5 | 40% | ||
| 2027-02-17 | @ WAS -5.1 | +0.5 | 60% | ||
| 2027-02-25 | @ DET +3.8 | +0.5 | 33% | ||
| 2027-02-28 | @ HOU +5.3 | +0.5 | 29% | ||
| 2027-03-02 | vs TOR +2.8 | +0.5 | 50% | ||
| 2027-03-03 | vs TOR +2.8 | +0.5 | 50% | ||
| 2027-03-06 | vs IND +0.0 | +0.5 | 59% | ||
| 2027-03-08 | vs PHX -0.5 | +0.5 | 60% | ||
| 2027-03-10 | vs ORL +1.0 | +0.5 | 56% | ||
| 2027-03-12 | @ MIL -6.5 | +0.5 | 64% | ||
| 2027-03-14 | @ DEN +3.4 | +0.5 | 34% | ||
| 2027-03-17 | @ POR +2.8 | +0.5 | 36% | ||
| 2027-03-19 | @ PHX -0.5 | +0.5 | 46% | ||
| 2027-03-21 | vs DEN +3.4 | +0.5 | 48% | ||
| 2027-03-23 | vs LAL +2.3 | +0.5 | 51% | ||
| 2027-03-25 | vs UTA -4.4 | +0.5 | 72% | ||
| 2027-03-27 | vs BOS +6.3 | +0.5 | 39% | ||
| 2027-03-29 | @ CLE +2.3 | +0.5 | 37% | ||
| 2027-03-30 | @ CHA -0.2 | +0.5 | 45% | ||
| 2027-04-02 | @ BOS +6.3 | +0.5 | 26% | ||
| 2027-04-04 | @ DET +3.8 | +0.5 | 33% | ||
| 2027-04-05 | @ ORL +1.0 | +0.5 | 41% | ||
| 2027-04-08 | vs PHI +2.5 | +0.5 | 51% | ||
| 2027-04-09 | vs WAS -5.1 | +0.5 | 74% | ||
| 2027-04-11 | vs ORL +1.0 | +0.5 | 56% |
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)
Bottom line: Giannis is the lead handler in a fast offense (113–115 pace with him on the floor), which squeezes Bam's usage. Spoelstra's starters and second unit are set, and rookie Ryan Conwell is climbing.
Usage & ball-handling
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: heliocentric, with a 55.0 AST% (first among rotation locks). His usage was 15.8% in the opener (deliberately building chemistry) and 34.7% vs NOP. He went for 20/15/9 in 23.8 minutes vs BKN and finished first in AST% and fifth in TRB%.
- Bam Adebayo: 35.3% usage in the opener while playing off the ball like a shooting guard, with fewer DHOs. He fell to 15.0% the next game. ETR has a fade on him because Giannis takes too much of the rebounding and usage.
- Giannis' handling cut into Davion Mitchell's role. Andrew Wiggins is mostly catch-and-shoot (all six of his opener shots were threes).
- Pelle Larsson: third in preseason usage and third in FTA per 100 among rotation players. He leads the second unit as an aggressive driver.
Minutes & rotation
- Starters: Davion Mitchell, Klay Thompson, Wiggins, Giannis, Bam. Nick Richards started when Bam sat, and Bobby Portis covered the rest of the first-half center minutes.
- Second unit: Larsson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Simone Fontecchio, Nikola Jovic, Portis.
- Giannis played the most minutes of the main group in the opener (18 first-half minutes vs NOP) and could beat Bam's 32.4 MPG from last year.
- Conwell has already passed Fontecchio, which looks sticky. Jovic has the edge for the bigger F2 role ("stack positive days," per Spoelstra).
- Dru Smith (calf) is out early. ETR raised Larsson's minutes and assist rate as a result.
Who plays together
- Spoelstra did hockey subs early: the full starting five out, the full second unit in.
- The Giannis-Bam frontcourt is the key fit question. Giannis' rebounding and usage come out of Bam's share.
Pace & shot selection
- 113.5 pace in the opener and 114.8 with Giannis on the floor. Among players with 3+ games and 18+ MPG, Giannis led the preseason at 113.8.
- 128.5 PPG through two games and 68.5 first-half PPG vs BKN, the highest first-half preseason scoring since 2022.
- Minutes aren't being pushed, but the extra possessions add volume for Wiggins, Davion Mitchell and Larsson.
Player by player
| Player | Model GP | Model MPG | Model min | Preseason read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 62 | 32.8 | 2,025 | Lead handler and rebounder in a fast offense. Huge projected season. |
| Bam Adebayo | 68 | 32.7 | 2,209 | Usage squeezed by Giannis (15–35% swings). |
| Davion Mitchell | 69 | 31.4 | 2,155 | Starting PG with less handling. |
| Klay Thompson | 60 | 21.7 | 1,305 | Starting SG. |
| Andrew Wiggins | 65 | 30.2 | 1,954 | Starter, catch-and-shoot role. |
| Pelle Larsson | 67 | 29.7 | 1,976 | Second-unit leader. Would start if any of the top four guards or wings missed time. |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 66 | 24.3 | 1,607 | Second unit. |
| Nikola Jovic | 55 | 16.0 | 878 | F2 with the edge over Fontecchio. |
| Ryan Conwell | 45 | 16.9 | 768 | Rookie scorer. Already passed Fontecchio, and Spoelstra runs plays for him. |
| Bobby Portis | 68 | 23.7 | 1,605 | Backup C. |
Preseason starting lineups
| Game | Opp | Starters | Out (ETR's noteworthy inactives) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | NOP | Davion Mitchell, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo | Pelle Larsson |
| Oct 10 | MIN | Tre Donaldson, Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Nikola Jovic, Nick Richards | Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Dru Smith, Bobby Portis, Klay Thompson, Tim Hardaway Jr. |
| Oct 14 | BKN | Davion Mitchell, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nick Richards | Bam Adebayo |
Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.