NBA 2026-27 Wins Model

built 2026-10-28 15:40 · darko 2026-10-28 15:40 · rosters 2026-10-28 15:40 · schedule 2026-10-28 15:40 · build 2026-10-28 15:40 · etr 2026-10-28 15:40 · monster_ros 2026-10-28 15:40 · fanduel 2026-10-28 15:40 · sim 2026-10-28 15:40

DET Pistons #6 of 30

Projected wins
51.5
FanDuel 51.5 (o+100 / u-130) · record 3-1
Net rating
+3.73
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off +1.49 · def +2.83
Next game / full strength
+3.62 / +3.81
2026-10-28 vs CHA (Monster daily minutes) · out: Isaiah Joe; Jalen Duren
DARKO vs market
+2.98 / +4.47
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 49.9 / 53.1
Minutes covered
18,720
of 18,720 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
18
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
-0.14
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
89% ETR
7% MPG from ETR FPPG · 3% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
106 pts
40 reb · 25 ast · 10.8 3pm · 89% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
PlayerETR slotPosAgeGPMPGMinPTSREBASTSTLBLK3PMTOFG% zFT% zFPPG9-cat rkShare %DPMMktRatingODO ctbD ctbContrib
Cade CunninghamPG1G256434.22,19224.65.59.91.30.72.13.7-0.50+0.8048.41111.7+3.97+3.92+3.95+3.62+0.35+2.12+0.20+2.31
Ausar ThompsonQSF1G236629.81,95311.66.53.62.11.10.21.7+0.69-1.1132.85010.4+1.08+1.13+1.11-0.99+2.08-0.52+1.08+0.58
Duncan RobinsonSG1F326727.81,86411.82.52.20.60.22.80.8-0.48+0.1119.518410.0+0.56+0.71+0.64+0.55+0.01+0.27+0.01+0.32
John CollinsPF1F296627.61,81014.56.21.30.70.71.21.2+0.84+0.1027.01129.7+0.65-0.88-0.12+0.10+0.54+0.05+0.26-0.06
Jalen DurenINJ 6g · back 11-09C1C226030.01,79618.610.62.40.80.90.01.9+2.49-0.6638.0489.6+1.75+2.29+2.02+1.20+0.56+0.57+0.27+0.97
Isaiah JoeQSG2G276622.01,45511.42.81.70.70.22.70.7-0.39+0.2319.31657.8+1.17+2.17+1.67+1.34-0.17+0.52-0.07+0.65
Daniss JenkinsPG2G256421.31,35810.32.34.20.90.21.11.6-0.48+0.2321.12527.3-0.35+0.77+0.21-0.50+0.15-0.18+0.06+0.08
Paul ReedC2F276520.21,3179.66.31.81.21.20.31.1+0.67-0.3626.01097.0+1.30+2.07+1.68+0.13+1.16+0.05+0.41+0.59
Ronald Holland IISF3F216618.81,2428.33.51.31.00.30.81.0-0.07-0.0017.12806.6-0.17+0.50+0.17-1.69+1.52-0.56+0.50+0.06
Kevin HuerterSF2G286019.41,1628.92.82.40.80.31.40.9-0.15-0.0018.22496.2+0.20+0.85+0.53-0.12+0.32-0.04+0.10+0.16
Taurean Princempg from ETR FPPGPF3F326014.6875–––––––––14.2–4.7-1.37-1.65-1.51-0.91-0.46-0.21-0.11-0.35
Javonte GreenPF2G33659.26026.02.70.81.00.31.00.5-0.15+0.0013.92813.2+0.95+0.73+0.84-0.63+1.58-0.10+0.25+0.14
Ebuka Okoriempg from ETR FPPGPG3G19568.7491–––––––––15.4–2.6-2.34-1.65-1.99-1.45-0.89-0.19-0.12-0.26
Chaz LanierETR depth fillSG3G24446.0264–––––––––––1.4-1.98-4.47-3.23-1.36-0.62-0.10-0.04-0.23
Tolu Smith IIIETR depth fillC3F26175.694–––––––––––0.5-1.26-1.69-1.47-1.63+0.38-0.04+0.01-0.04
Elijah HarklessQG26165.383–––––––––––0.4-0.88-2.59-1.74-1.64+0.76-0.03+0.02-0.04
Isaac JonesQETR depth fillPF5C26165.180–––––––––––0.4-2.44-2.53-2.49-2.37-0.07-0.05-0.00-0.05
Ugonna OnyensoGLGETR depth fillPF4C22165.180–––––––––––0.4-3.37–-3.37-3.25-0.12-0.06-0.00-0.07
Team18,720106.240.424.78.74.810.811.8100+4.33+5.18+1.51+2.82+4.75

PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.

Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
PlayerInjRiskOut untilGames outPlayedMon %ETR %Avail %Next %Exp GPSeason GETR GMon GETR MPGMon MPGRole MPGExp minMonster note
Jalen DurenINJ 6ghigh2026-11-0952848082059.961.9666128.730.030.01,796Injured - right hamstring strain (Injury) - Est. Return 11/09
Cade Cunninghamhigh0485808210064.268.2666634.334.034.22,192
Ausar ThompsonQhigh038583849065.668.6686628.631.029.81,953Questionable - right ankle sprain (Injury)
Duncan Robinsonmed0490828610067.171.1687026.529.027.71,864
John Collinsmed0490788410065.769.7657027.028.027.51,810
Isaiah JoeQmed03908286066.169.1677023.021.022.01,455Questionable - right hip contusion (Injury)
Daniss Jenkinsmed0490738110063.767.7617021.621.021.31,358
Paul Reedmed0490778310065.269.2647020.220.020.11,317
Kevin Huerterhigh0485687610059.763.7576619.919.019.51,162
Ronald Holland IImed0490808510066.270.2667018.619.018.81,242
Taurean Princehigh0185687610059.760.7546618.019.018.5875
Javonte Greenmed0490778310065.269.2647016.918.017.5602
Ebuka Okoriemed02747273056.358.3585819.214.016.6491
Chaz Laniermed0158–58044.445.4–4512.610.011.3264
Tolu Smith IIImed0320–2010016.819.8–1612.69.010.894
Elijah HarklessQmed0120–20015.816.8–16–10.010.083Questionable - g league twoway (Injury)
Isaac JonesQmed0120–20015.816.8–1611.48.09.780Questionable - g league twoway (Injury)
Ugonna OnyensoGLGmed0020–20015.815.8–1611.48.09.780G-League

Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.

ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
Cade CunninghamGallagher #10Absurd usage coming his way and the turnovers to go with it, but Bickerstaff has to play him a ton after three health-ish seasons in a row
Ausar ThompsonGallagher #50Another year of experience should cut down fouls and have to think offensive talent turns the corner
John CollinsGallagher #120Will boost slight here while we wait on Duren; should get a ton of open looks with Cade
Jalen DurenGallagher #36Bumped back up with contract stuff done, but Sam Amick reports they were worried he'd get lazy after deal
Paul ReedGallagher #129Even with Duren signed, he is still one of the best backup Cs in fantasy
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Cade Cunningham
34.2 mpg × 64 g = 2,192
Daniss Jenkins
21.3 mpg × 64 g = 1,358
Ebuka Okorie
8.7 mpg × 56 g = 491
SG
Duncan Robinson
27.8 mpg × 67 g = 1,864
Isaiah Joe
22.0 mpg × 66 g = 1,455
Chaz Lanier
6.0 mpg × 44 g = 264
SF
Ausar Thompson
29.8 mpg × 66 g = 1,953
Kevin Huerter
19.4 mpg × 60 g = 1,162
Ronald Holland II
18.8 mpg × 66 g = 1,242
PF
John Collins
27.6 mpg × 66 g = 1,810
Javonte Green
9.2 mpg × 65 g = 602
Taurean Prince
14.6 mpg × 60 g = 875
Ugonna Onyenso 2W
5.1 mpg × 16 g = 80
Isaac Jones 2W
5.1 mpg × 16 g = 80
C
Jalen Duren
30.0 mpg × 60 g = 1,796
Paul Reed
20.2 mpg × 65 g = 1,317
Tolu Smith III
5.6 mpg × 17 g = 94

Not on ETR's depth chart: Elijah Harkless

Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
DateOpp (net that game)Our netWin %ResultOur players out
2026-10-20vs BOS +6.349%W 121-113
2026-10-23@ MIA +0.553%W 128-111
2026-10-25@ PHI +2.546%W 106-93
2026-10-27@ NYK +5.039%L 97-111
2026-10-28vs CHA -3.2+3.677%Monster tonight Isaiah Joe; Jalen Duren
2026-10-30@ BKN -5.7+2.267%Jalen Duren
2026-11-02@ CHA -0.2+2.250%Jalen Duren
2026-11-04vs PHI +2.5+2.256%Jalen Duren
2026-11-08vs LAL +2.3+2.257%Jalen Duren
2026-11-09vs WAS -5.1+3.882%
2026-11-12@ WAS -5.1+3.870%
2026-11-14@ MIA +0.5+3.853%
2026-11-17@ SAS +5.9+3.836%
2026-11-18@ NOP -4.6+3.869%
2026-11-20vs TOR +2.8+3.860%
2026-11-22@ ATL +0.8+3.852%
2026-11-24@ ORL -0.2+3.855%
2026-11-27vs MIL -6.5+3.884%
2026-11-29vs ORL -0.2+3.869%
2026-11-30vs DEN +3.4+3.858%
2026-12-02vs MEM -3.4+3.878%
2026-12-13@ IND -0.0+3.855%
2026-12-14vs BKN -5.7+3.883%
2026-12-16vs PHX -0.8+3.871%
2026-12-18vs CLE +2.3+3.862%
2026-12-20@ BOS +6.3+3.835%
2026-12-22@ OKC +4.7+3.840%
2026-12-23@ ATL +0.8+3.852%
2026-12-26@ CHI -5.2+3.870%
2026-12-27vs POR +2.4+3.862%
2026-12-30vs NOP -4.6+3.880%
2027-01-01vs ORL +1.0+3.866%
2027-01-03@ DEN +3.4+3.844%
2027-01-05@ SAC -8.4+3.879%
2027-01-07@ GSW -0.2+3.855%
2027-01-08@ LAL +2.3+3.847%
2027-01-10vs UTA -4.4+3.880%
2027-01-12@ TOR +2.8+3.846%
2027-01-14vs DAL -4.3+3.880%
2027-01-16@ HOU +5.3+3.838%
2027-01-18@ CLE +2.3+3.848%
2027-01-22vs IND -0.0+3.869%
2027-01-24vs MIN +2.8+3.860%
2027-01-26vs ATL +0.8+3.866%
2027-01-27@ CLE +2.3+3.848%
2027-01-29@ DAL -4.3+3.868%
2027-01-31vs SAC -8.4+3.888%
2027-02-02vs CHI -5.2+3.882%
2027-02-03vs NYK +5.0+3.854%
2027-02-05@ PHI +2.5+3.847%
2027-02-07vs GSW +0.1+3.868%
2027-02-09@ LAC -3.2+3.865%
2027-02-10@ PHX -0.8+3.857%
2027-02-13@ POR +2.4+3.847%
2027-02-15@ UTA -4.4+3.868%
2027-02-17vs NYK +5.0+3.854%
2027-02-25vs MIA +0.5+3.867%
2027-02-27vs OKC +4.7+3.855%
2027-03-01vs CHI -5.2+3.882%
2027-03-02@ MIL -6.5+3.874%
2027-03-05vs BOS +6.3+3.849%
2027-03-09vs CLE +2.3+3.862%
2027-03-11vs MIL -6.5+3.884%
2027-03-13vs BKN -5.7+3.883%
2027-03-14@ TOR +2.8+3.846%
2027-03-16@ IND +0.0+3.855%
2027-03-18@ MIL -6.5+3.874%
2027-03-20vs CHA -0.2+3.869%
2027-03-22@ MIN +2.8+3.846%
2027-03-24@ CHA -0.2+3.855%
2027-03-25vs HOU +5.3+3.853%
2027-03-27vs SAS +5.9+3.851%
2027-03-29vs LAC -3.0+3.877%
2027-03-31vs TOR +2.8+3.860%
2027-04-02@ CHI -5.2+3.870%
2027-04-04vs MIA +0.5+3.867%
2027-04-06@ MEM -3.4+3.865%
2027-04-07vs IND +0.0+3.869%
2027-04-09@ NYK +5.0+3.839%
2027-04-11@ WAS -5.1+3.870%
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)

Bottom line: Duren is signed and dominant, Cade has a huge role, and Bickerstaff runs 10–11 deep with Paul Reed taking every non-Duren minute. Ausar Thompson's offensive growth is the swing factor.

Usage & ball-handling
  • Cade Cunningham: a huge role, no news needed.
  • Jalen Duren: 24/3/1 in 15 minutes vs Gobert, playing fast. The weight-clause worry disappeared.
  • Ausar Thompson ran point to open the second half (Ausar, Joe, Huerter, Collins, Reed) and took more mid-range jumpers. He also missed all six shots outside the restricted area vs WAS. Bickerstaff said he'll "definitely" be over 26 MPG (ETR projects 28).
Minutes & rotation
  • Starters: Cade, Duncan Robinson, Ausar, John Collins, Duren.
  • Paul Reed takes all the non-Duren minutes and started when Duren sat.
  • Daniss Jenkins takes the non-Cade minutes, with a wide gap over Ebuka Okorie (who only played the final seven minutes on Oct 14).
  • Bench wings are messy: Isaiah Joe (direct backup to Robinson), Kevin Huerter, Ron Holland II, Javonte Green. Holland is talked up but doesn't get the minutes, though he moved up in the finale when Ausar was in foul trouble.
  • Rotation was 10 deep on Oct 5 and 11 deep on Oct 14.
  • ETR moves: Ausar +0.5 MPG to 28 and a rank boost after his second-half PG start. Duren up slightly.
Who plays together
  • Joe and Huerter are the first subs (for Reed and Robinson) and start the small-ball stretches.
  • With Duren or Reed out, Collins slides to center. Tolu Smith covered some of those minutes.
  • Jenkins didn't play alongside Cade until late in the second quarter, so he is a pure backup.
Pace & shot selection
  • ETR logged little team pace or shot data for Detroit. The main style note is small ball with Collins at center and Duren running.

Player by player

PlayerModel GPModel MPGModel minPreseason read
Cade Cunningham6434.22,192Huge role.
Jalen Duren6030.01,796Signed, fit and dominant vs Gobert. ETR moved him up.
Ausar Thompson6629.81,95327–29 MPG, growing on-ball role. Shooting outside the paint is the test.
John Collins6627.61,810Starting PF. Backup C in small lineups.
Duncan Robinson6727.81,864Starting SG. Isaiah Joe is his straight backup.
Paul Reed6520.21,317C2 lock, every non-Duren minute.
Daniss Jenkins6421.31,358Backup PG lock, no overlap with Cade.
Isaiah Joe6622.01,455Rotation lock, first sub.
Kevin Huerter6019.41,162Rotation lock, first sub with Joe.
Ronald Holland II6618.81,242Fringe minutes despite the praise.

Preseason starting lineups

GameOppStartersOut (ETR's noteworthy inactives)
Oct 5PHXCade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, John Collins, Paul ReedJalen Duren
Oct 10WASDaniss Jenkins, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, John Collins, Paul ReedCade Cunningham, Jalen Duren
Oct 14MINCade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, John Collins, Jalen Duren

Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.