LAC Clippers #22 of 30
Projected wins
32.5
FanDuel 28.5 (o-120 / u-105) · record 1-2
Net rating
-3.39
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off -0.94 · def -0.04
Next game / full strength
-3.14 / -2.98
2026-10-28 vs LAL (Monster daily minutes) · out: Brandon Ingram; Yanic Konan Niederhauser; Bradley Beal; Rui Hachimura; Jordan Miller; Max Strus
DARKO vs market
-2.33 / -4.45
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 34.9 / 30.1
Minutes covered
18,943
of 18,960 remaining · fill 16 @ replacement
Roster
18
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
+0.04
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
91% ETR
7% MPG from ETR FPPG · 1% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
100 pts
34 reb · 22 ast · 12.5 3pm · 91% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
| Player | ETR slot | Pos | Age | GP | MPG | Min | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TO | FG% z | FT% z | FPPG | 9-cat rk | Share % | DPM | Mkt | Rating | O | D | O ctb | D ctb | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rui Hachimura | PF1 | F | 28 | 63 | 31.5 | 1,988 | 15.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | +0.34 | -0.16 | 25.1 | 155 | 10.5 | -0.98 | -1.39 | -1.18 | -0.50 | -0.48 | -0.26 | -0.25 | -0.62 |
| Keaton Wagler | PG2 | G | 19 | 68 | 28.8 | 1,965 | 13.8 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | -0.91 | +0.18 | 26.1 | 168 | 10.4 | -0.82 | -2.06 | -1.44 | -0.34 | -0.48 | -0.17 | -0.25 | -0.74 |
| Darius Garland | PG1 | G | 26 | 60 | 32.9 | 1,963 | 22.4 | 2.8 | 7.5 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | -0.79 | +0.76 | 37.6 | 71 | 10.4 | +2.02 | +2.21 | +2.12 | +3.11 | -1.09 | +1.62 | -0.57 | +1.10 |
| Derrick Jones | SF1 | F | 29 | 61 | 28.5 | 1,729 | 10.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | +0.23 | -0.20 | 21.7 | 175 | 9.1 | +1.55 | +1.14 | +1.34 | +0.20 | +1.35 | +0.09 | +0.61 | +0.61 |
| Kris Dunn | SG1 | G | 32 | 65 | 25.5 | 1,647 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | -0.14 | -0.03 | 21.0 | 150 | 8.7 | +0.62 | -1.95 | -0.67 | -0.74 | +1.35 | -0.32 | +0.59 | -0.29 |
| Kobe Sanders | PF2 | G | 24 | 64 | 24.8 | 1,592 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | -0.27 | +0.09 | 19.0 | 246 | 8.4 | -1.13 | -5.23 | -3.18 | -1.00 | -0.13 | -0.42 | -0.06 | -1.33 |
| Max StrusINJ 5g · back 11-08 | SG2 | G | 30 | 48 | 27.2 | 1,303 | 11.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | -0.62 | +0.09 | 21.6 | 195 | 6.9 | -0.37 | -0.32 | -0.34 | +0.04 | -0.41 | +0.01 | -0.14 | -0.12 |
| Isaiah Jackson | C1 | F | 24 | 57 | 22.2 | 1,273 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 | +0.89 | -0.78 | 24.3 | 187 | 6.7 | +0.49 | -1.38 | -0.44 | +0.01 | +0.48 | +0.00 | +0.16 | -0.15 |
| Brandon IngramINJ 20g · back 12-13 | SF1 | F | 29 | 34 | 31.0 | 1,069 | 21.9 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.8 | -0.12 | +0.55 | 36.6 | 128 | 5.6 | +0.41 | +2.60 | +1.50 | +0.79 | -0.39 | +0.22 | -0.11 | +0.42 |
| Bradley BealINJ 3g · back 11-02 | SF2 | G | 33 | 44 | 22.3 | 990 | 12.7 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | -0.13 | +0.20 | 21.5 | 257 | 5.2 | -1.70 | +0.15 | -0.78 | -0.60 | -1.10 | -0.16 | -0.29 | -0.20 |
| Brook Lopez | C2 | C | 38 | 50 | 19.5 | 985 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | -0.24 | +0.02 | 18.9 | 215 | 5.2 | -0.51 | +1.98 | +0.73 | -1.91 | +1.40 | -0.50 | +0.36 | +0.19 |
| Yanic Konan NiederhauserINJ 11g · back 11-20 | C1 | C | 23 | 45 | 17.1 | 762 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | +0.82 | -0.34 | 22.0 | 232 | 4.0 | -1.04 | -3.84 | -2.44 | -1.57 | +0.53 | -0.31 | +0.11 | -0.49 |
| Gradey Dickmpg from ETR FPPG | SG2 | G | 22 | 59 | 12.4 | 730 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 13.6 | – | 3.8 | -1.61 | -0.95 | -1.28 | -1.26 | -0.35 | -0.24 | -0.07 | -0.25 |
| Baba Millermpg from ETR FPPG | C3 | F | 22 | 55 | 9.8 | 537 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.8 | -3.44 | -1.74 | -2.59 | -2.65 | -0.79 | -0.37 | -0.11 | -0.37 |
| Jordan MillerINJ 55g · back 02-25mpg from ETR FPPG | SG1 | G | 26 | 13 | 9.0 | 114 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.6 | +0.35 | +0.50 | +0.42 | +0.65 | -0.30 | +0.02 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| Cam Christie | G | 21 | 16 | 7.0 | 111 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.6 | -2.34 | +0.14 | -1.10 | -2.33 | -0.00 | -0.07 | -0.00 | -0.03 | |
| Nick MartinelliETR depth fill | PF3 | F | 22 | 17 | 5.8 | 98 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.5 | -2.49 | -1.69 | -2.09 | -2.05 | -0.45 | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| Jalen PickettETR depth fill | PG3 | G | 27 | 16 | 5.6 | 88 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.5 | -1.51 | -2.81 | -2.16 | -0.86 | -0.65 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.05 |
| Team | 18,943 | 100.3 | 34.1 | 22.3 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 100 | -0.97 | -3.75 | -0.93 | -0.04 | -2.36 |
PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 16 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.01. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.
Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
| Player | Inj | Risk | Out until | Games out | Played | Mon % | ETR % | Avail % | Next % | Exp GP | Season G | ETR G | Mon G | ETR MPG | Mon MPG | Role MPG | Exp min | Monster note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Miller | INJ 55g | med | 2027-02-25 | 55 | 0 | 88 | 18 | 53 | 0 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 15 | 21 | 23.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 114 | Injured - left shoulder (Injury) - Est. Return 02/25 |
| Brandon Ingram | INJ 20g | extreme | 2026-12-13 | 20 | 0 | 64 | 52 | 58 | 0 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 43 | 38 | 31.6 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 1,069 | Injured - partially torn achilles (Injury) - Est. Return 12/13 |
| Yanic Konan Niederhauser | INJ 11g | extreme | 2026-11-20 | 11 | 0 | 76 | 55 | 66 | 0 | 44.7 | 44.7 | 45 | 52 | 20.8 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 762 | Injured - foot surgery (Injury) - Est. Return 11/20 |
| Max Strus | INJ 5g | extreme | 2026-11-08 | 5 | 0 | 76 | 54 | 65 | 0 | 47.9 | 47.9 | 44 | 56 | 26.6 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 1,303 | Injured - partial plantar fascia tear (Injury) - Est. Return 11/08 |
| Bradley Beal | INJ 3g | extreme | 2026-11-02 | 3 | 0 | 64 | 52 | 58 | 0 | 44.4 | 44.4 | 43 | 49 | 23.7 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 990 | Injured - knee swelling (Injury) - Est. Return 11/02 |
| Darius Garland | extreme | 0 | 3 | 80 | 71 | 75 | 100 | 59.7 | 62.7 | 59 | 63 | 32.6 | 32.0 | 32.3 | 1,963 | |||
| Rui Hachimura | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 73 | 81 | 0 | 63.2 | 66.2 | 61 | 70 | 30.9 | 31.0 | 30.9 | 1,988 | |||
| Keaton Wagler | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 84 | 86 | 100 | 68.1 | 71.1 | 69 | 70 | 27.7 | 29.0 | 28.3 | 1,965 | |||
| Derrick Jones | high | 0 | 3 | 84 | 70 | 77 | 100 | 60.7 | 63.7 | 58 | 66 | 26.9 | 29.0 | 27.9 | 1,729 | |||
| Kris Dunn | high | 0 | 3 | 84 | 80 | 82 | 100 | 64.7 | 67.7 | 66 | 66 | 24.9 | 25.0 | 24.9 | 1,647 | |||
| Kobe Sanders | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 73 | 81 | 100 | 64.2 | 67.2 | 61 | 70 | 25.7 | 23.0 | 24.4 | 1,592 | |||
| Isaiah Jackson | high | 0 | 3 | 84 | 61 | 72 | 100 | 57.3 | 60.3 | 51 | 66 | 20.6 | 23.0 | 21.8 | 1,273 | |||
| Brook Lopez | high | 0 | 3 | 54 | 72 | 63 | 100 | 50.4 | 53.4 | 60 | 43 | 21.3 | 17.0 | 19.1 | 985 | |||
| Gradey Dick | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 60 | 74 | 100 | 58.8 | 61.8 | 50 | 70 | 17.4 | 19.0 | 18.2 | 730 | |||
| Baba Miller | med | 0 | 2 | 89 | 49 | 69 | 100 | 54.8 | 56.8 | 41 | 70 | 22.4 | 8.0 | 15.2 | 537 | |||
| Cam Christie | med | 0 | 1 | 20 | – | 20 | 0 | 15.8 | 16.8 | – | 16 | – | 11.0 | 11.0 | 111 |
Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.
ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
| Rui Hachimura | Gallagher #132 | Excellent preseason debut and the Clippers are losing too much offensive talent |
| Keaton Wagler | Gallagher #139 | Very good chance he's terrible in category-based leagues, but I'd want to take a shot late to see what happens |
| Darius Garland | Gallagher #55 | Lue is excited about molding Garland and he went for 19/2/6 in just 29 MPG over 19 games as Clipper |
| Max Strus | Depth chart | Out until November for plantar fascia issue |
| Brandon Ingram | Depth chart | Will miss start of season for partial Achilles tear |
| Yanic Konan Niederhauser | Depth chart | Out to start season, but could be back in November or early December |
| Jordan Miller | Depth chart | Targeting All-Star break for rotator cuff tear |
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Darius Garland
32.9 mpg × 60 g = 1,963
Keaton Wagler
28.8 mpg × 68 g = 1,965
Jalen Pickett 2W
5.6 mpg × 16 g = 88
SG
Kris Dunn
25.5 mpg × 65 g = 1,647
Gradey Dick
12.4 mpg × 59 g = 730
Jordan Miller IR
9.0 mpg × 13 g = 114
Max Strus IR
27.2 mpg × 48 g = 1,303
SF
Derrick Jones
28.5 mpg × 61 g = 1,729
Bradley Beal
22.3 mpg × 44 g = 990
Brandon Ingram IR
31.0 mpg × 34 g = 1,069
PF
Rui Hachimura
31.5 mpg × 63 g = 1,988
Kobe Sanders
24.8 mpg × 64 g = 1,592
Nick Martinelli 2W
5.8 mpg × 17 g = 98
C
Isaiah Jackson
22.2 mpg × 57 g = 1,273
Brook Lopez
19.5 mpg × 50 g = 985
Baba Miller
9.8 mpg × 55 g = 537
Yanic Konan Niederhauser IR
17.1 mpg × 45 g = 762
Not on ETR's depth chart: Cam Christie
Schedule 3 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
| Date | Opp (net that game) | Our net | Win % | Result | Our players out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | vs SAC -8.4 | 72% | W 121-96 | ||
| 2026-10-23 | @ LAL +2.4 | 26% | L 117-125 | ||
| 2026-10-25 | @ OKC +4.7 | 20% | L 101-108 | ||
| 2026-10-28 | vs LAL +4.6 | -3.1 | 33% | Monster tonight Brandon Ingram; Yanic Konan Niederhauser; Bradley Beal; Rui Hachimura; Jordan Miller; Max Strus | |
| 2026-10-30 | @ MIN +2.8 | -4.2 | 23% | Brandon Ingram; Yanic Konan Niederhauser; Bradley Beal; Jordan Miller; Max Strus | |
| 2026-11-01 | @ GSW -0.3 | -4.2 | 31% | Brandon Ingram; Yanic Konan Niederhauser; Bradley Beal; Jordan Miller; Max Strus | |
| 2026-11-02 | vs TOR +0.0 | -4.0 | 44% | Brandon Ingram; Yanic Konan Niederhauser; Jordan Miller; Max Strus | |
| 2026-11-04 | vs MIA +0.5 | -4.0 | 43% | Brandon Ingram; Yanic Konan Niederhauser; Jordan Miller; Max Strus | |
| 2026-11-08 | vs NOP -4.7 | -3.9 | 60% | Brandon Ingram; Yanic Konan Niederhauser; Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-11-10 | @ PHX -0.8 | -3.9 | 33% | Brandon Ingram; Yanic Konan Niederhauser; Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-11-13 | vs OKC +4.7 | -3.9 | 31% | Brandon Ingram; Yanic Konan Niederhauser; Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-11-15 | vs CHA -0.2 | -3.9 | 46% | Brandon Ingram; Yanic Konan Niederhauser; Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-11-17 | vs UTA -4.4 | -3.9 | 59% | Brandon Ingram; Yanic Konan Niederhauser; Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-11-19 | @ SAS +5.9 | -3.9 | 17% | Brandon Ingram; Yanic Konan Niederhauser; Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-11-21 | @ DAL -4.3 | -4.4 | 42% | Brandon Ingram; Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-11-23 | @ HOU +5.3 | -4.4 | 17% | Brandon Ingram; Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-11-25 | @ MEM -3.4 | -4.4 | 39% | Brandon Ingram; Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-11-27 | vs NOP -4.6 | -4.4 | 58% | Brandon Ingram; Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-11-29 | @ GSW -0.3 | -4.4 | 31% | Brandon Ingram; Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-12-01 | @ PHX -0.8 | -4.4 | 32% | Brandon Ingram; Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-12-02 | vs MIN +2.8 | -4.4 | 35% | Brandon Ingram; Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-12-13 | @ SAS +5.9 | -3.2 | 18% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-12-16 | @ CHA -0.2 | -3.2 | 33% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-12-18 | @ MIA +0.5 | -3.2 | 31% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-12-20 | vs IND -0.0 | -3.2 | 47% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-12-21 | vs DEN +3.4 | -3.2 | 36% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-12-23 | vs GSW -0.2 | -3.2 | 48% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-12-26 | vs MEM -3.4 | -3.2 | 58% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-12-27 | vs PHI +2.5 | -3.2 | 39% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-12-29 | @ IND -0.0 | -3.2 | 33% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2026-12-31 | @ CLE +2.3 | -3.2 | 27% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-01-01 | @ TOR +2.8 | -3.2 | 25% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-01-03 | @ WAS -5.1 | -3.2 | 48% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-01-05 | @ ORL +1.0 | -3.2 | 30% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-01-07 | @ MIL -6.5 | -3.2 | 53% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-01-09 | vs BOS +6.3 | -3.2 | 28% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-01-11 | vs LAL +2.3 | -3.2 | 40% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-01-14 | @ SAC -8.4 | -3.2 | 59% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-01-15 | vs ORL +1.0 | -3.2 | 44% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-01-18 | vs PHX -0.8 | -3.2 | 50% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-01-20 | @ UTA -4.4 | -3.2 | 46% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-01-22 | vs WAS -5.1 | -3.2 | 63% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-01-24 | @ NYK +5.0 | -3.2 | 20% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-01-25 | @ PHI +2.5 | -3.2 | 26% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-01-27 | @ BOS +6.3 | -3.2 | 17% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-01-29 | @ BKN -5.7 | -3.2 | 50% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-02-02 | vs SAS +5.9 | -3.2 | 29% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-02-03 | vs GSW +0.1 | -3.2 | 47% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-02-05 | @ DEN +3.4 | -3.2 | 24% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-02-07 | @ DAL -4.3 | -3.2 | 46% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-02-09 | vs DET +3.8 | -3.2 | 35% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-02-10 | @ LAL +2.3 | -3.2 | 26% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-02-12 | @ MEM -3.4 | -3.2 | 43% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-02-14 | @ NOP -4.6 | -3.2 | 47% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-02-16 | vs HOU +5.3 | -3.2 | 31% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-02-17 | vs CHI -5.2 | -3.2 | 63% | Jordan Miller | |
| 2027-02-25 | vs UTA -4.4 | -3.0 | 62% | ||
| 2027-02-28 | vs POR +2.8 | -3.0 | 39% | ||
| 2027-03-02 | @ POR +2.8 | -3.0 | 26% | ||
| 2027-03-04 | vs BKN -5.7 | -3.0 | 66% | ||
| 2027-03-06 | @ SAC -8.4 | -3.0 | 60% | ||
| 2027-03-08 | vs HOU +5.3 | -3.0 | 32% | ||
| 2027-03-10 | vs NYK +5.0 | -3.0 | 32% | ||
| 2027-03-11 | vs CLE +2.3 | -3.0 | 41% | ||
| 2027-03-13 | @ POR +2.8 | -3.0 | 26% | ||
| 2027-03-16 | vs DEN +3.4 | -3.0 | 37% | ||
| 2027-03-18 | vs MEM -3.4 | -3.0 | 58% | ||
| 2027-03-20 | vs ATL +0.8 | -3.0 | 45% | ||
| 2027-03-22 | vs DAL -4.3 | -3.0 | 61% | ||
| 2027-03-24 | vs MIL -6.5 | -3.0 | 68% | ||
| 2027-03-26 | @ OKC +4.7 | -3.0 | 21% | ||
| 2027-03-27 | @ CHI -5.2 | -3.0 | 50% | ||
| 2027-03-29 | @ DET +3.8 | -3.0 | 23% | ||
| 2027-03-31 | @ ATL +0.8 | -3.0 | 31% | ||
| 2027-04-02 | vs SAS +5.9 | -3.0 | 30% | ||
| 2027-04-04 | vs PHX -0.5 | -3.0 | 50% | ||
| 2027-04-06 | vs MIN +2.8 | -3.0 | 39% | ||
| 2027-04-08 | @ DEN +3.4 | -3.0 | 24% | ||
| 2027-04-09 | @ UTA -4.4 | -3.0 | 47% | ||
| 2027-04-11 | vs SAC -8.4 | -3.0 | 73% |
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)
Bottom line: Garland and Rui Hachimura carry a thin team (30%+ usage each) with Ingram and Strus hurt. Ty Lue plays slow, and the bench is a real problem.
Usage & ball-handling
- Darius Garland: 30.2% usage and in complete control (pick-and-roll, pushing pace). Early on he scored 15 in 15.3 minutes at a 121 TS%.
- Rui Hachimura: 33.3% usage over 18.5 first-half minutes on a mix of catch-and-shoot, cuts and mid-range. He is the No. 2 scoring option.
- Keaton Wagler: the rookie fires away (46.5 TS%), and Lue says he'll let him play through mistakes.
Minutes & rotation
- Likely opening-night starters: Garland, Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Hachimura, Isaiah Jackson. Cam Christie was waived, and Wagler started for Dunn on Oct 14.
- Isaiah Jackson has pulled ahead of Brook Lopez at starting C and should keep the job until Yanic Konan Niederhauser returns (around Thanksgiving; he has started more on-court work).
- Bench locks: Wagler, Gradey Dick, Kobe Sanders (back for the opener), Lopez. The 10th spot is Baba Miller or Jalen Pickett.
- Injuries: Brandon Ingram (partially torn Achilles from his May surgery; ETR cut about 10 games), Max Strus (non-contact foot injury, pulled from ETR's top 150), Bradley Beal (knee inflammation), Niederhauser.
- Dick played only 7 first-half minutes behind Jones Jr. (no overlap).
- ETR moves: Jackson boosted over Lopez, Strus cut after an early boost, Dunn trimmed when he looked like a bench lock.
Who plays together
- Lue likes Dunn and Wagler together in the second unit.
- Wagler and Garland overlapped for about four minutes in a game (4:16 plus 1.3 minutes in the opener).
- Lopez and Jackson split the first-half center minutes. Baba Miller was PF2 with no Hachimura overlap.
Pace & shot selection
- Last in the preseason in halfcourt rate: 90.4% of possessions in the halfcourt, the slowest style in the league. They were also 30th in halfcourt offensive rating.
- Garland pushes when he can, but the team is built to grind.
Player by player
| Player | Model GP | Model MPG | Model min | Preseason read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Garland | 60 | 32.9 | 1,963 | Runs everything. 30% usage. |
| Rui Hachimura | 63 | 31.5 | 1,988 | No. 2 option, 33% usage. The thin roster keeps his minutes up. |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 61 | 28.5 | 1,729 | Starting wing. |
| Isaiah Jackson | 57 | 22.2 | 1,273 | Starting C until Niederhauser is back. |
| Kris Dunn | 65 | 25.5 | 1,647 | Likely starting SG with Christie waived. |
| Keaton Wagler | 68 | 28.8 | 1,965 | Rookie scorer. Inefficient but playing through mistakes. |
| Brook Lopez | 50 | 19.5 | 985 | Backup C now. |
| Gradey Dick | 59 | 12.4 | 730 | Bench lock by default. |
| Kobe Sanders | 64 | 24.8 | 1,592 | Expected back for the opener. |
| Brandon Ingram | 34 | 31.0 | 1,069 | Out to start the season. |
Preseason starting lineups
| Game | Opp | Starters | Out (ETR's noteworthy inactives) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | TOR | Darius Garland, Cam Christie, Derrick Jones Jr., Rui Hachimura, Brook Lopez | Brandon Ingram, Max Strus, Kris Dunn, Bradley Beal, Kobe Sanders, Yanic Konan Niederhauser |
| Oct 14 | DEN | Darius Garland, Keaton Wagler, Derrick Jones Jr., Rui Hachimura, Isaiah Jackson | Kris Dunn, Bradley Beal |
Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.