NBA 2026-27 Wins Model

built 2026-10-28 15:40 · darko 2026-10-28 15:40 · rosters 2026-10-28 15:40 · schedule 2026-10-28 15:40 · build 2026-10-28 15:40 · etr 2026-10-28 15:40 · monster_ros 2026-10-28 15:40 · fanduel 2026-10-28 15:40 · sim 2026-10-28 15:40

LAL Lakers #11 of 30

Projected wins
47.4
FanDuel 48.5 (o+105 / u-130) · record 3-1
Net rating
+2.38
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off +3.19 · def +1.71
Next game / full strength
+4.59 / +2.33
2026-10-28 @ LAC (Monster daily minutes) · out: Adou Thiero; Cameron Carr
DARKO vs market
+3.56 / +1.20
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 50.0 / 44.7
Minutes covered
18,720
of 18,720 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
18
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
-0.09
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
83% ETR
10% MPG from ETR FPPG · 6% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
104 pts
34 reb · 23 ast · 12.2 3pm · 83% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
PlayerETR slotPosAgeGPMPGMinPTSREBASTSTLBLK3PMTOFG% zFT% zFPPG9-cat rkShare %DPMMktRatingODO ctbD ctbContrib
Austin ReavesSG1G286735.82,38423.44.46.61.00.42.53.0+0.02+1.6539.81912.7+1.87+2.37+2.12+2.87-1.00+1.82-0.64+1.35
Luka DoncicPG1G276236.12,22533.58.38.51.60.54.04.0-0.38+0.1858.7411.9+5.33+6.14+5.73+5.20+0.12+3.09+0.07+3.41
Walker KesslerINC1C256231.01,93012.811.11.60.62.80.21.5+1.96-1.3237.32810.3+1.62+0.68+1.15+0.35+1.27+0.18+0.65+0.59
Quentin GrimesSF1G266628.91,91214.13.83.21.00.42.31.6-0.51+0.1725.812410.2-0.83-0.79-0.81-0.32-0.51-0.16-0.26-0.41
Sandro MamukelashviliC2F276723.91,60412.25.82.00.80.61.71.0+0.24-0.1725.51158.6+1.55+0.42+0.99+0.96+0.59+0.41+0.25+0.42
Jake LaRaviaPF2F246722.31,4867.43.61.51.00.40.91.0-0.17-0.1017.22617.9+0.64-1.05-0.21-0.85+1.50-0.34+0.59-0.08
Collin SextonPG2G276423.21,47915.42.33.10.80.11.51.9-0.10+0.6223.82037.9-0.13-2.93-1.53+0.59-0.72+0.23-0.28-0.60
Ziaire WilliamsSG2F255722.91,3028.22.51.10.90.31.30.9-0.38+0.1615.32897.0-0.52-1.69-1.10-1.11+0.59-0.39+0.21-0.38
Matisse ThybullePF1G295324.01,2807.22.71.42.00.81.50.9-0.37-0.0320.21316.8+1.27-0.01+0.63-0.85+2.12-0.29+0.72+0.22
Kevon Looneympg from ETR FPPGC3F305814.8864–––––––––15.2–4.6-0.81-1.92-1.37-1.83+1.02-0.42+0.23-0.32
Jarred VanderbiltETR depth fillPF3F274213.6576–––––––––––3.1+0.60+0.19+0.40-1.23+1.83-0.19+0.28+0.06
Adou ThieroINJ 5g · back 11-04mpg from ETR FPPGSF2F22599.5557–––––––––14.8–3.0-1.98-1.46-1.72-2.22+0.24-0.33+0.04-0.26
Cameron CarrINJ 5g · back 11-04mpg from ETR FPPGSG3G214512.0539–––––––––14.3–2.9-2.30–-2.30-1.64-0.66-0.24-0.10-0.33
Bronny JamesETR depth fillPG3G22446.0267–––––––––––1.4-1.41-1.83-1.62-1.37-0.04-0.10-0.00-0.12
Jaden HardyETR depth fillSG4G24215.8119–––––––––––0.6-1.95-1.59-1.77-0.33-1.62-0.01-0.05-0.06
Chris ManonETR depth fillPG4G24164.570–––––––––––0.4-1.24-1.76-1.50-1.60+0.36-0.03+0.01-0.03
AK OkerekeETR depth fillPF4F23164.266–––––––––––0.4-2.62-1.49-2.05-1.95-0.67-0.04-0.01-0.04
Arthur KalumaF24163.658–––––––––––0.3-2.28-1.44-1.86-1.71-0.56-0.03-0.01-0.03
Team18,720103.634.222.57.54.712.212.2100+4.90+1.89+3.19+1.71+3.40

PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.

Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
PlayerInjRiskOut untilGames outPlayedMon %ETR %Avail %Next %Exp GPSeason GETR GMon GETR MPGMon MPGRole MPGExp minMonster note
Adou ThieroINJ 5gmed2026-11-0440897079058.758.7576618.612.012.0557Injured - knee swelling (Injury) - Est. Return 11/04
Cameron CarrINJ 5gmed2026-11-0440576561044.944.9534218.112.012.0539Injured - oblique strain (Injury) - Est. Return 11/04
Luka Doncichigh0485737910061.765.7616636.036.036.02,225
Austin Reavesmed0490818510066.670.6677035.536.035.72,384
Walker KesslerINhigh0485748010062.266.2626631.031.031.01,930Playing - left finger splint (Injury)
Quentin Grimesmed0490808510066.270.2667030.927.029.01,912
Matisse Thybullehigh0480566810053.357.3486224.024.024.01,280
Sandro Mamukelashvilimed0490828610067.171.1687024.823.023.91,604
Collin Sextonhigh0385788110063.766.7646624.622.023.31,479
Ziaire Williamshigh0485607210056.860.8516619.626.022.81,302
Jake LaRaviamed0390818510066.669.6667022.622.022.31,486
Kevon Looneyhigh0485647410058.362.3546619.011.015.0864
Jarred Vanderbilthigh0055–55042.442.4–4312.115.013.6576
Bronny Jamesmed0158–58044.445.4–4512.111.011.6267
Jaden Hardymed0127–27020.721.7–2112.110.011.1119

Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.

ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
Austin ReavesGallagher #19Was so good late that LeBron conceded usage; became one of best rim finishers among guards en route to 64 TS%
Luka DoncicGallagher #4Looks to be in great shape again and he's projected to lead the NBA in scoring; lean SGA in category-based for %s
Walker KesslerGallagher #28Luka could make him the league leader in FG% and will have plenty of chances for blocks in this defense
Quentin GrimesGallagher #122Massive contigency value and Luka could make him an efficient role player when LAL is healthy
Sandro MamukelashviliGallagher #121May not start because Lakers need more on-ball defense, but could explode if Kessler goes down
Ziaire WilliamsDepth chartBeen their defender for PGs
Bronny JamesDepth chartSubbing as a PG in the preseason
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Luka Doncic
36.1 mpg × 62 g = 2,225
Collin Sexton
23.2 mpg × 64 g = 1,479
Bronny James
6.0 mpg × 44 g = 267
Chris Manon 2W
4.5 mpg × 16 g = 70
SG
Austin Reaves
35.8 mpg × 67 g = 2,384
Ziaire Williams
22.9 mpg × 57 g = 1,302
Cameron Carr
12.0 mpg × 45 g = 539
Jaden Hardy
5.8 mpg × 21 g = 119
SF
Quentin Grimes
28.9 mpg × 66 g = 1,912
Adou Thiero
9.5 mpg × 59 g = 557
PF
Matisse Thybulle
24.0 mpg × 53 g = 1,280
Jake LaRavia
22.3 mpg × 67 g = 1,486
Jarred Vanderbilt
13.6 mpg × 42 g = 576
AK Okereke 2W
4.2 mpg × 16 g = 66
C
Walker Kessler
31.0 mpg × 62 g = 1,930
Sandro Mamukelashvili
23.9 mpg × 67 g = 1,604
Kevon Looney
14.8 mpg × 58 g = 864

Not on ETR's depth chart: Arthur Kaluma

Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
DateOpp (net that game)Our netWin %ResultOur players out
2026-10-21vs GSW +0.364%W 127-105
2026-10-23vs LAC -3.474%W 125-117
2026-10-25@ UTA -4.564%W 132-123
2026-10-27vs POR +2.557%L 129-136
2026-10-28@ LAC -3.1+4.667%Monster tonight Adou Thiero; Cameron Carr
2026-10-30@ GSW -0.3+2.853%Adou Thiero; Cameron Carr
2026-11-01vs TOR +0.0+2.866%Adou Thiero; Cameron Carr
2026-11-02vs MIA +0.5+2.864%Adou Thiero; Cameron Carr
2026-11-04@ SAC -8.2+2.374%
2026-11-06vs POR +2.4+2.357%
2026-11-08@ DET +2.2+2.343%
2026-11-09@ ATL +0.8+2.348%
2026-11-11@ MIL -6.5+2.370%
2026-11-15@ PHX -0.8+2.353%
2026-11-17vs CHA -0.2+2.365%
2026-11-18vs UTA -4.4+2.376%
2026-11-20vs SAC -8.4+2.385%
2026-11-23vs UTA -4.4+2.376%
2026-11-27@ SAS +5.9+2.332%
2026-11-29@ MEM -3.4+2.361%
2026-11-30@ HOU +5.3+2.334%
2026-12-02@ NOP -4.6+2.364%
2026-12-14vs NOP -4.6+2.377%
2026-12-16@ MIN +2.8+2.341%
2026-12-18@ MIN +2.8+2.341%
2026-12-19@ DEN +3.4+2.339%
2026-12-21vs IND -0.0+2.365%
2026-12-23vs DEN +3.4+2.354%
2026-12-25vs PHI +2.5+2.357%
2026-12-27vs MEM -3.4+2.374%
2026-12-29vs HOU +5.3+2.348%
2026-12-31@ NOP -4.6+2.364%
2027-01-02@ CHI -5.2+2.366%
2027-01-03@ TOR +2.8+2.341%
2027-01-05@ WAS -5.1+2.366%
2027-01-07vs BOS +6.3+2.345%
2027-01-08vs DET +3.8+2.353%
2027-01-11@ LAC -3.2+2.360%
2027-01-13@ POR +2.4+2.343%
2027-01-14vs ORL +1.0+2.362%
2027-01-17vs MIL -6.5+2.381%
2027-01-19@ SAC -8.4+2.375%
2027-01-21@ GSW -0.2+2.351%
2027-01-22vs SAC -8.4+2.385%
2027-01-24vs WAS -5.1+2.378%
2027-01-26vs OKC +4.7+2.350%
2027-01-28@ IND -0.0+2.350%
2027-01-30@ NYK +5.0+2.334%
2027-01-31@ CHA -0.2+2.351%
2027-02-02@ BOS +6.3+2.331%
2027-02-04@ BKN -5.7+2.368%
2027-02-06@ SAS +5.9+2.332%
2027-02-08@ PHX -0.8+2.353%
2027-02-10vs LAC -3.2+2.374%
2027-02-12vs DEN +3.4+2.354%
2027-02-16vs CHI -5.2+2.378%
2027-02-18vs HOU +5.3+2.348%
2027-02-26@ DEN +3.4+2.339%
2027-02-28@ DAL -4.3+2.364%
2027-03-02@ ORL +1.0+2.347%
2027-03-04@ PHI +2.5+2.342%
2027-03-06vs OKC +4.7+2.350%
2027-03-07vs BKN -5.7+2.380%
2027-03-11vs NYK +5.0+2.349%
2027-03-12vs CLE +2.3+2.357%
2027-03-14vs GSW +1.2+2.361%
2027-03-16@ POR +2.8+2.341%
2027-03-17vs PHX -0.5+2.366%
2027-03-19vs ATL +0.8+2.362%
2027-03-21vs DAL -4.3+2.376%
2027-03-23@ MIA +0.5+2.349%
2027-03-25@ CLE +2.3+2.343%
2027-03-28@ HOU +5.3+2.334%
2027-03-30@ MEM -3.4+2.361%
2027-04-01@ OKC +5.0+2.334%
2027-04-04vs SAS +5.9+2.346%
2027-04-06vs DAL -4.3+2.376%
2027-04-07vs MIN +3.4+2.354%
2027-04-09vs MIN +3.4+2.354%
2027-04-11vs PHX -0.5+2.366%
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)

Bottom line: Luka and Reaves should be staggered to run separate units. Kessler starts in drop coverage with Mamukelashvili as a hub off the bench, and the fifth starter is Thybulle or Ziaire Williams.

Usage & ball-handling
  • Luka Doncic: 50.0% usage and 21 points in 16 minutes. He worked on his body all offseason. A possible quad contusion was flagged but not docked.
  • Austin Reaves: 45.2% usage in a Luka-less 17.5-minute first half. In his debut he wasn't staggered from Luka, which kept his usage down, and ETR expects that to change.
  • Quentin Grimes: ran the second unit at 22.9% usage while staggered from both stars.
  • Sandro Mamukelashvili: 24.5% first-half usage (34.6% in the non-Luka game). He fits as a hub and spacer.
Minutes & rotation
  • Expected starters: Luka, Reaves, Grimes, Matisse Thybulle or Ziaire Williams, Walker Kessler. In the finale Grimes came off the bench (no Collin Sexton) and Thybulle and Williams both started. ETR still expects Grimes to start, with Thybulle a slight favorite over Williams.
  • Kessler: 16 first-half minutes in his debut, playing drop coverage.
  • C2: Mamukelashvili backs up both the 4 and the 5. Kevon Looney's minutes should vanish once Kessler is set.
  • Bench order: Adou Thiero and Jake LaRavia first, then Bronny James and Cam Carr. Jarred Vanderbilt and Dalton Knecht are out of the rotation, and Knecht isn't expected to make the team. Sexton may have missed the whole preseason.
Who plays together
  • Expect Luka and Reaves to be staggered in the regular season.
  • Grimes ran the second unit with LaRavia, Mamukelashvili, Thybulle and Bronny.
  • Mamukelashvili has chemistry with Thiero and got some overlap with Kessler.
Pace & shot selection
  • Defense was the early story: 13.7 steals per game over the first three games (two against the Kings) as the perimeter-defender investments paid off.
  • Kessler's drop coverage should be the base scheme all year.

Player by player

PlayerModel GPModel MPGModel minPreseason read
Luka Doncic6236.12,22550% usage, in great shape.
Austin Reaves6735.82,384Heavy usage when Luka sits. Should be staggered.
Quentin Grimes6628.91,912Starter or sixth man. Spacer next to Luka, handler without him.
Walker Kessler6231.01,930Starting C in drop coverage.
Sandro Mamukelashvili6723.91,604C2/PF2 hub. Holds value even with Kessler back.
Matisse Thybulle5324.01,280Slight favorite for the fifth starting spot. Gets the defensive assignment.
Ziaire Williams5722.91,302Competing with Thybulle.
Jake LaRavia6722.31,486Top-two bench option.
Adou Thiero599.5557Top-two bench option, chemistry with Mamukelashvili.
Kevon Looney5814.8864Started while Kessler was out. Minutes disappear once Kessler is back.

Preseason starting lineups

GameOppStartersOut (ETR's noteworthy inactives)
Oct 5SACLuka Doncic, Quentin Grimes, Ziaire Williams, Matisse Thybulle, Kevon LooneyAustin Reaves, Walker Kessler
Oct 6GSWQuentin Grimes, Bronny James, Adou Thiero, Jake LaRavia, Sandro MamukelashviliLuka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Ziaire Williams, Matisse Thybulle, Walker Kessler, Collin Sexton
Oct 8SACLuka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Quentin Grimes, Adou Thiero, Kevon LooneyWalker Kessler, Ziaire Williams, Collin Sexton, Dalton Knecht, Cameron Carr
Oct 13GSWAustin Reaves, Quentin Grimes, Matisse Thybulle, Jake LaRavia, Walker KesslerLuka Doncic, Ziaire Williams, Collin Sexton, Adou Thiero

Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.