LAL Lakers #11 of 30
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
| Player | ETR slot | Pos | Age | GP | MPG | Min | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TO | FG% z | FT% z | FPPG | 9-cat rk | Share % | DPM | Mkt | Rating | O | D | O ctb | D ctb | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves | SG1 | G | 28 | 67 | 35.8 | 2,384 | 23.4 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.02 | +1.65 | 39.8 | 19 | 12.7 | +1.87 | +2.37 | +2.12 | +2.87 | -1.00 | +1.82 | -0.64 | +1.35 |
| Luka Doncic | PG1 | G | 27 | 62 | 36.1 | 2,225 | 33.5 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | -0.38 | +0.18 | 58.7 | 4 | 11.9 | +5.33 | +6.14 | +5.73 | +5.20 | +0.12 | +3.09 | +0.07 | +3.41 |
| Walker KesslerIN | C1 | C | 25 | 62 | 31.0 | 1,930 | 12.8 | 11.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 1.5 | +1.96 | -1.32 | 37.3 | 28 | 10.3 | +1.62 | +0.68 | +1.15 | +0.35 | +1.27 | +0.18 | +0.65 | +0.59 |
| Quentin Grimes | SF1 | G | 26 | 66 | 28.9 | 1,912 | 14.1 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | -0.51 | +0.17 | 25.8 | 124 | 10.2 | -0.83 | -0.79 | -0.81 | -0.32 | -0.51 | -0.16 | -0.26 | -0.41 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | C2 | F | 27 | 67 | 23.9 | 1,604 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | +0.24 | -0.17 | 25.5 | 115 | 8.6 | +1.55 | +0.42 | +0.99 | +0.96 | +0.59 | +0.41 | +0.25 | +0.42 |
| Jake LaRavia | PF2 | F | 24 | 67 | 22.3 | 1,486 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | -0.17 | -0.10 | 17.2 | 261 | 7.9 | +0.64 | -1.05 | -0.21 | -0.85 | +1.50 | -0.34 | +0.59 | -0.08 |
| Collin Sexton | PG2 | G | 27 | 64 | 23.2 | 1,479 | 15.4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.10 | +0.62 | 23.8 | 203 | 7.9 | -0.13 | -2.93 | -1.53 | +0.59 | -0.72 | +0.23 | -0.28 | -0.60 |
| Ziaire Williams | SG2 | F | 25 | 57 | 22.9 | 1,302 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | -0.38 | +0.16 | 15.3 | 289 | 7.0 | -0.52 | -1.69 | -1.10 | -1.11 | +0.59 | -0.39 | +0.21 | -0.38 |
| Matisse Thybulle | PF1 | G | 29 | 53 | 24.0 | 1,280 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | -0.37 | -0.03 | 20.2 | 131 | 6.8 | +1.27 | -0.01 | +0.63 | -0.85 | +2.12 | -0.29 | +0.72 | +0.22 |
| Kevon Looneympg from ETR FPPG | C3 | F | 30 | 58 | 14.8 | 864 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15.2 | – | 4.6 | -0.81 | -1.92 | -1.37 | -1.83 | +1.02 | -0.42 | +0.23 | -0.32 |
| Jarred VanderbiltETR depth fill | PF3 | F | 27 | 42 | 13.6 | 576 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3.1 | +0.60 | +0.19 | +0.40 | -1.23 | +1.83 | -0.19 | +0.28 | +0.06 |
| Adou ThieroINJ 5g · back 11-04mpg from ETR FPPG | SF2 | F | 22 | 59 | 9.5 | 557 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14.8 | – | 3.0 | -1.98 | -1.46 | -1.72 | -2.22 | +0.24 | -0.33 | +0.04 | -0.26 |
| Cameron CarrINJ 5g · back 11-04mpg from ETR FPPG | SG3 | G | 21 | 45 | 12.0 | 539 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14.3 | – | 2.9 | -2.30 | – | -2.30 | -1.64 | -0.66 | -0.24 | -0.10 | -0.33 |
| Bronny JamesETR depth fill | PG3 | G | 22 | 44 | 6.0 | 267 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.4 | -1.41 | -1.83 | -1.62 | -1.37 | -0.04 | -0.10 | -0.00 | -0.12 |
| Jaden HardyETR depth fill | SG4 | G | 24 | 21 | 5.8 | 119 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.6 | -1.95 | -1.59 | -1.77 | -0.33 | -1.62 | -0.01 | -0.05 | -0.06 |
| Chris ManonETR depth fill | PG4 | G | 24 | 16 | 4.5 | 70 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -1.24 | -1.76 | -1.50 | -1.60 | +0.36 | -0.03 | +0.01 | -0.03 |
| AK OkerekeETR depth fill | PF4 | F | 23 | 16 | 4.2 | 66 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -2.62 | -1.49 | -2.05 | -1.95 | -0.67 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| Arthur Kaluma | F | 24 | 16 | 3.6 | 58 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.3 | -2.28 | -1.44 | -1.86 | -1.71 | -0.56 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.03 | |
| Team | 18,720 | 103.6 | 34.2 | 22.5 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 100 | +4.90 | +1.89 | +3.19 | +1.71 | +3.40 |
PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.
Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
| Player | Inj | Risk | Out until | Games out | Played | Mon % | ETR % | Avail % | Next % | Exp GP | Season G | ETR G | Mon G | ETR MPG | Mon MPG | Role MPG | Exp min | Monster note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adou Thiero | INJ 5g | med | 2026-11-04 | 4 | 0 | 89 | 70 | 79 | 0 | 58.7 | 58.7 | 57 | 66 | 18.6 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 557 | Injured - knee swelling (Injury) - Est. Return 11/04 |
| Cameron Carr | INJ 5g | med | 2026-11-04 | 4 | 0 | 57 | 65 | 61 | 0 | 44.9 | 44.9 | 53 | 42 | 18.1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 539 | Injured - oblique strain (Injury) - Est. Return 11/04 |
| Luka Doncic | high | 0 | 4 | 85 | 73 | 79 | 100 | 61.7 | 65.7 | 61 | 66 | 36.0 | 36.0 | 36.0 | 2,225 | |||
| Austin Reaves | med | 0 | 4 | 90 | 81 | 85 | 100 | 66.6 | 70.6 | 67 | 70 | 35.5 | 36.0 | 35.7 | 2,384 | |||
| Walker Kessler | IN | high | 0 | 4 | 85 | 74 | 80 | 100 | 62.2 | 66.2 | 62 | 66 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 1,930 | Playing - left finger splint (Injury) | |
| Quentin Grimes | med | 0 | 4 | 90 | 80 | 85 | 100 | 66.2 | 70.2 | 66 | 70 | 30.9 | 27.0 | 29.0 | 1,912 | |||
| Matisse Thybulle | high | 0 | 4 | 80 | 56 | 68 | 100 | 53.3 | 57.3 | 48 | 62 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 1,280 | |||
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | med | 0 | 4 | 90 | 82 | 86 | 100 | 67.1 | 71.1 | 68 | 70 | 24.8 | 23.0 | 23.9 | 1,604 | |||
| Collin Sexton | high | 0 | 3 | 85 | 78 | 81 | 100 | 63.7 | 66.7 | 64 | 66 | 24.6 | 22.0 | 23.3 | 1,479 | |||
| Ziaire Williams | high | 0 | 4 | 85 | 60 | 72 | 100 | 56.8 | 60.8 | 51 | 66 | 19.6 | 26.0 | 22.8 | 1,302 | |||
| Jake LaRavia | med | 0 | 3 | 90 | 81 | 85 | 100 | 66.6 | 69.6 | 66 | 70 | 22.6 | 22.0 | 22.3 | 1,486 | |||
| Kevon Looney | high | 0 | 4 | 85 | 64 | 74 | 100 | 58.3 | 62.3 | 54 | 66 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 15.0 | 864 | |||
| Jarred Vanderbilt | high | 0 | 0 | 55 | – | 55 | 0 | 42.4 | 42.4 | – | 43 | 12.1 | 15.0 | 13.6 | 576 | |||
| Bronny James | med | 0 | 1 | 58 | – | 58 | 0 | 44.4 | 45.4 | – | 45 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 267 | |||
| Jaden Hardy | med | 0 | 1 | 27 | – | 27 | 0 | 20.7 | 21.7 | – | 21 | 12.1 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 119 |
Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.
ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
| Austin Reaves | Gallagher #19 | Was so good late that LeBron conceded usage; became one of best rim finishers among guards en route to 64 TS% |
| Luka Doncic | Gallagher #4 | Looks to be in great shape again and he's projected to lead the NBA in scoring; lean SGA in category-based for %s |
| Walker Kessler | Gallagher #28 | Luka could make him the league leader in FG% and will have plenty of chances for blocks in this defense |
| Quentin Grimes | Gallagher #122 | Massive contigency value and Luka could make him an efficient role player when LAL is healthy |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | Gallagher #121 | May not start because Lakers need more on-ball defense, but could explode if Kessler goes down |
| Ziaire Williams | Depth chart | Been their defender for PGs |
| Bronny James | Depth chart | Subbing as a PG in the preseason |
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
Not on ETR's depth chart: Arthur Kaluma
Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
| Date | Opp (net that game) | Our net | Win % | Result | Our players out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | vs GSW +0.3 | 64% | W 127-105 | ||
| 2026-10-23 | vs LAC -3.4 | 74% | W 125-117 | ||
| 2026-10-25 | @ UTA -4.5 | 64% | W 132-123 | ||
| 2026-10-27 | vs POR +2.5 | 57% | L 129-136 | ||
| 2026-10-28 | @ LAC -3.1 | +4.6 | 67% | Monster tonight Adou Thiero; Cameron Carr | |
| 2026-10-30 | @ GSW -0.3 | +2.8 | 53% | Adou Thiero; Cameron Carr | |
| 2026-11-01 | vs TOR +0.0 | +2.8 | 66% | Adou Thiero; Cameron Carr | |
| 2026-11-02 | vs MIA +0.5 | +2.8 | 64% | Adou Thiero; Cameron Carr | |
| 2026-11-04 | @ SAC -8.2 | +2.3 | 74% | ||
| 2026-11-06 | vs POR +2.4 | +2.3 | 57% | ||
| 2026-11-08 | @ DET +2.2 | +2.3 | 43% | ||
| 2026-11-09 | @ ATL +0.8 | +2.3 | 48% | ||
| 2026-11-11 | @ MIL -6.5 | +2.3 | 70% | ||
| 2026-11-15 | @ PHX -0.8 | +2.3 | 53% | ||
| 2026-11-17 | vs CHA -0.2 | +2.3 | 65% | ||
| 2026-11-18 | vs UTA -4.4 | +2.3 | 76% | ||
| 2026-11-20 | vs SAC -8.4 | +2.3 | 85% | ||
| 2026-11-23 | vs UTA -4.4 | +2.3 | 76% | ||
| 2026-11-27 | @ SAS +5.9 | +2.3 | 32% | ||
| 2026-11-29 | @ MEM -3.4 | +2.3 | 61% | ||
| 2026-11-30 | @ HOU +5.3 | +2.3 | 34% | ||
| 2026-12-02 | @ NOP -4.6 | +2.3 | 64% | ||
| 2026-12-14 | vs NOP -4.6 | +2.3 | 77% | ||
| 2026-12-16 | @ MIN +2.8 | +2.3 | 41% | ||
| 2026-12-18 | @ MIN +2.8 | +2.3 | 41% | ||
| 2026-12-19 | @ DEN +3.4 | +2.3 | 39% | ||
| 2026-12-21 | vs IND -0.0 | +2.3 | 65% | ||
| 2026-12-23 | vs DEN +3.4 | +2.3 | 54% | ||
| 2026-12-25 | vs PHI +2.5 | +2.3 | 57% | ||
| 2026-12-27 | vs MEM -3.4 | +2.3 | 74% | ||
| 2026-12-29 | vs HOU +5.3 | +2.3 | 48% | ||
| 2026-12-31 | @ NOP -4.6 | +2.3 | 64% | ||
| 2027-01-02 | @ CHI -5.2 | +2.3 | 66% | ||
| 2027-01-03 | @ TOR +2.8 | +2.3 | 41% | ||
| 2027-01-05 | @ WAS -5.1 | +2.3 | 66% | ||
| 2027-01-07 | vs BOS +6.3 | +2.3 | 45% | ||
| 2027-01-08 | vs DET +3.8 | +2.3 | 53% | ||
| 2027-01-11 | @ LAC -3.2 | +2.3 | 60% | ||
| 2027-01-13 | @ POR +2.4 | +2.3 | 43% | ||
| 2027-01-14 | vs ORL +1.0 | +2.3 | 62% | ||
| 2027-01-17 | vs MIL -6.5 | +2.3 | 81% | ||
| 2027-01-19 | @ SAC -8.4 | +2.3 | 75% | ||
| 2027-01-21 | @ GSW -0.2 | +2.3 | 51% | ||
| 2027-01-22 | vs SAC -8.4 | +2.3 | 85% | ||
| 2027-01-24 | vs WAS -5.1 | +2.3 | 78% | ||
| 2027-01-26 | vs OKC +4.7 | +2.3 | 50% | ||
| 2027-01-28 | @ IND -0.0 | +2.3 | 50% | ||
| 2027-01-30 | @ NYK +5.0 | +2.3 | 34% | ||
| 2027-01-31 | @ CHA -0.2 | +2.3 | 51% | ||
| 2027-02-02 | @ BOS +6.3 | +2.3 | 31% | ||
| 2027-02-04 | @ BKN -5.7 | +2.3 | 68% | ||
| 2027-02-06 | @ SAS +5.9 | +2.3 | 32% | ||
| 2027-02-08 | @ PHX -0.8 | +2.3 | 53% | ||
| 2027-02-10 | vs LAC -3.2 | +2.3 | 74% | ||
| 2027-02-12 | vs DEN +3.4 | +2.3 | 54% | ||
| 2027-02-16 | vs CHI -5.2 | +2.3 | 78% | ||
| 2027-02-18 | vs HOU +5.3 | +2.3 | 48% | ||
| 2027-02-26 | @ DEN +3.4 | +2.3 | 39% | ||
| 2027-02-28 | @ DAL -4.3 | +2.3 | 64% | ||
| 2027-03-02 | @ ORL +1.0 | +2.3 | 47% | ||
| 2027-03-04 | @ PHI +2.5 | +2.3 | 42% | ||
| 2027-03-06 | vs OKC +4.7 | +2.3 | 50% | ||
| 2027-03-07 | vs BKN -5.7 | +2.3 | 80% | ||
| 2027-03-11 | vs NYK +5.0 | +2.3 | 49% | ||
| 2027-03-12 | vs CLE +2.3 | +2.3 | 57% | ||
| 2027-03-14 | vs GSW +1.2 | +2.3 | 61% | ||
| 2027-03-16 | @ POR +2.8 | +2.3 | 41% | ||
| 2027-03-17 | vs PHX -0.5 | +2.3 | 66% | ||
| 2027-03-19 | vs ATL +0.8 | +2.3 | 62% | ||
| 2027-03-21 | vs DAL -4.3 | +2.3 | 76% | ||
| 2027-03-23 | @ MIA +0.5 | +2.3 | 49% | ||
| 2027-03-25 | @ CLE +2.3 | +2.3 | 43% | ||
| 2027-03-28 | @ HOU +5.3 | +2.3 | 34% | ||
| 2027-03-30 | @ MEM -3.4 | +2.3 | 61% | ||
| 2027-04-01 | @ OKC +5.0 | +2.3 | 34% | ||
| 2027-04-04 | vs SAS +5.9 | +2.3 | 46% | ||
| 2027-04-06 | vs DAL -4.3 | +2.3 | 76% | ||
| 2027-04-07 | vs MIN +3.4 | +2.3 | 54% | ||
| 2027-04-09 | vs MIN +3.4 | +2.3 | 54% | ||
| 2027-04-11 | vs PHX -0.5 | +2.3 | 66% |
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)
Bottom line: Luka and Reaves should be staggered to run separate units. Kessler starts in drop coverage with Mamukelashvili as a hub off the bench, and the fifth starter is Thybulle or Ziaire Williams.
- Luka Doncic: 50.0% usage and 21 points in 16 minutes. He worked on his body all offseason. A possible quad contusion was flagged but not docked.
- Austin Reaves: 45.2% usage in a Luka-less 17.5-minute first half. In his debut he wasn't staggered from Luka, which kept his usage down, and ETR expects that to change.
- Quentin Grimes: ran the second unit at 22.9% usage while staggered from both stars.
- Sandro Mamukelashvili: 24.5% first-half usage (34.6% in the non-Luka game). He fits as a hub and spacer.
- Expected starters: Luka, Reaves, Grimes, Matisse Thybulle or Ziaire Williams, Walker Kessler. In the finale Grimes came off the bench (no Collin Sexton) and Thybulle and Williams both started. ETR still expects Grimes to start, with Thybulle a slight favorite over Williams.
- Kessler: 16 first-half minutes in his debut, playing drop coverage.
- C2: Mamukelashvili backs up both the 4 and the 5. Kevon Looney's minutes should vanish once Kessler is set.
- Bench order: Adou Thiero and Jake LaRavia first, then Bronny James and Cam Carr. Jarred Vanderbilt and Dalton Knecht are out of the rotation, and Knecht isn't expected to make the team. Sexton may have missed the whole preseason.
- Expect Luka and Reaves to be staggered in the regular season.
- Grimes ran the second unit with LaRavia, Mamukelashvili, Thybulle and Bronny.
- Mamukelashvili has chemistry with Thiero and got some overlap with Kessler.
- Defense was the early story: 13.7 steals per game over the first three games (two against the Kings) as the perimeter-defender investments paid off.
- Kessler's drop coverage should be the base scheme all year.
Player by player
| Player | Model GP | Model MPG | Model min | Preseason read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | 62 | 36.1 | 2,225 | 50% usage, in great shape. |
| Austin Reaves | 67 | 35.8 | 2,384 | Heavy usage when Luka sits. Should be staggered. |
| Quentin Grimes | 66 | 28.9 | 1,912 | Starter or sixth man. Spacer next to Luka, handler without him. |
| Walker Kessler | 62 | 31.0 | 1,930 | Starting C in drop coverage. |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 67 | 23.9 | 1,604 | C2/PF2 hub. Holds value even with Kessler back. |
| Matisse Thybulle | 53 | 24.0 | 1,280 | Slight favorite for the fifth starting spot. Gets the defensive assignment. |
| Ziaire Williams | 57 | 22.9 | 1,302 | Competing with Thybulle. |
| Jake LaRavia | 67 | 22.3 | 1,486 | Top-two bench option. |
| Adou Thiero | 59 | 9.5 | 557 | Top-two bench option, chemistry with Mamukelashvili. |
| Kevon Looney | 58 | 14.8 | 864 | Started while Kessler was out. Minutes disappear once Kessler is back. |
Preseason starting lineups
| Game | Opp | Starters | Out (ETR's noteworthy inactives) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | SAC | Luka Doncic, Quentin Grimes, Ziaire Williams, Matisse Thybulle, Kevon Looney | Austin Reaves, Walker Kessler |
| Oct 6 | GSW | Quentin Grimes, Bronny James, Adou Thiero, Jake LaRavia, Sandro Mamukelashvili | Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Ziaire Williams, Matisse Thybulle, Walker Kessler, Collin Sexton |
| Oct 8 | SAC | Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Quentin Grimes, Adou Thiero, Kevon Looney | Walker Kessler, Ziaire Williams, Collin Sexton, Dalton Knecht, Cameron Carr |
| Oct 13 | GSW | Austin Reaves, Quentin Grimes, Matisse Thybulle, Jake LaRavia, Walker Kessler | Luka Doncic, Ziaire Williams, Collin Sexton, Adou Thiero |
Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.