NBA 2026-27 Wins Model

built 2026-10-28 15:40 · darko 2026-10-28 15:40 · rosters 2026-10-28 15:40 · schedule 2026-10-28 15:40 · build 2026-10-28 15:40 · etr 2026-10-28 15:40 · monster_ros 2026-10-28 15:40 · fanduel 2026-10-28 15:40 · sim 2026-10-28 15:40

PHX Suns #20 of 30

Projected wins
39.4
FanDuel 37.5 (o-125 / u-105) · record 1-2
Net rating
-0.71
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off +1.09 · def -0.79
Next game / full strength
-1.05 / -0.53
2026-10-30 vs DEN · out: Mark Williams
DARKO vs market
-1.04 / -0.39
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 38.4 / 40.5
Minutes covered
18,960
of 18,960 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
17
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
-0.13
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
89% ETR
6% MPG from ETR FPPG · 4% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
103 pts
37 reb · 23 ast · 12.0 3pm · 89% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
PlayerETR slotPosAgeGPMPGMinPTSREBASTSTLBLK3PMTOFG% zFT% zFPPG9-cat rkShare %DPMMktRatingODO ctbD ctbContrib
Devin BookerSG1G296434.22,19025.84.16.40.90.32.12.9-0.48+1.6840.94611.6+1.79+3.35+2.57+3.26-1.48+1.89-0.86+1.48
Miles BridgesPF1F287030.52,13317.06.13.20.70.51.91.5-0.19+0.3531.39211.3-0.17-0.12-0.14+0.90-1.07+0.51-0.60-0.08
Jalen GreenPG1G246630.32,01520.54.63.51.00.32.62.4-1.36+0.1132.712610.6+0.12+0.26+0.19+1.29-1.17+0.68-0.62+0.10
Dillon BrooksSF1F306429.31,89017.73.51.80.90.22.11.4-1.03+0.4226.418010.0-0.49+2.42+0.96+0.56-1.05+0.28-0.52+0.48
Collin GillespiePG2G276825.61,75310.73.74.31.10.22.41.3-0.62+0.1424.21089.2+1.07+0.81+0.94+0.56+0.51+0.26+0.23+0.43
Oso IghodaroQC2F246825.41,7206.95.72.60.90.80.01.2+0.62-0.5421.52089.1+0.93-1.31-0.19-1.07+2.00-0.49+0.91-0.09
Khaman MaluachC1C206424.11,5469.28.51.00.41.70.41.2+0.59-0.2525.91358.2-1.53-2.42-1.98-2.46+0.94-1.01+0.38-0.81
Luke KennardSG2G306321.91,3837.82.32.30.50.11.50.8+0.02+0.1415.22877.3-0.11-1.25-0.68+0.64-0.75+0.23-0.27-0.25
Jordan GoodwinSF2G286220.71,2717.44.32.01.20.31.20.8-0.53-0.0419.22026.7+0.53+0.12+0.32-0.17+0.70-0.06+0.23+0.11
Rasheer Flemingmpg from ETR FPPGPF3F225817.51,008–––––––––14.2–5.3-1.39-1.01-1.20-1.68+0.28-0.44+0.08-0.32
Ryan DunnSF3F236114.58846.14.11.30.80.40.90.7-0.17-0.2515.82934.7-0.35-3.51-1.93-1.47+1.12-0.35+0.26-0.45
Jamaree BouyeaETR depth fillPG3G27459.7438–––––––––––2.3-0.76+0.66-0.05-1.11+0.35-0.13+0.04-0.01
Koa PeatETR depth fillPF4F19455.5249–––––––––––1.3-3.16-1.37-2.27-2.81-0.34-0.18-0.02-0.15
Mark WilliamsINJ 57g · back 03-01mpg from ETR FPPGC1C24920.0189–––––––––––1.0-0.31+0.57+0.13+0.05-0.36+0.00-0.02+0.01
Pat SpencerETR depth fillSG3G30215.8122–––––––––––0.6-1.61-1.98-1.80-1.27-0.34-0.04-0.01-0.06
Duop ReathC30195.6106–––––––––––0.6-1.20-1.67-1.44-1.07-0.13-0.03-0.00-0.04
Drew TimmeF26164.165–––––––––––0.3-2.14-5.54-3.84-2.21+0.07-0.03+0.00-0.07
Team18,960103.037.422.76.73.712.011.4100+0.31+0.31+1.10-0.79+0.30

PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.

Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
PlayerInjRiskOut untilGames outPlayedMon %ETR %Avail %Next %Exp GPSeason GETR GMon GETR MPGMon MPGRole MPGExp minMonster note
Mark WilliamsINJ 57gextreme2027-03-015707784309.49.471723.920.020.0189Injured - torn labrum (Injury) - Est. Return 03/01
Devin Bookerhigh038478818164.067.0656634.434.034.22,190
Miles Bridgeslow039484898970.073.0697430.930.030.52,133
Jalen Greenmed038980848466.569.5667031.629.030.32,015
Dillon Brookshigh038480828264.567.5666629.629.029.31,890
Collin Gillespiemed038985878768.571.5707025.226.025.61,753
Oso IghodaroQmed018984865067.668.6677025.925.025.41,720Questionable - right oblique strain (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet
Khaman Maluachhigh038478818164.067.0656624.324.024.11,546
Luke Kennardmed028971808063.065.0587020.923.021.91,383
Jordan Goodwinhigh038472787861.564.5606620.321.020.71,271
Rasheer Flemingmed028957737357.559.5477018.117.017.51,008
Ryan Dunnmed038966777761.064.0557018.914.016.4884
Jamaree Bouyeamed0257–575745.047.0–4511.911.011.4438
Pat Spencermed0127–272721.022.0–2111.911.011.4122
Duop Reathhigh0324–242419.022.0–19–11.011.0106
Koa Peatmed0257–575745.047.0–4511.910.010.9249

Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.

ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
Devin BookerGallagher #29Ott didn't want to boost his minutes and assist ceiling wasn't there, but still a safe option
Miles BridgesGallagher #93Ishbia may force Ott to play MSU product more (kidding); no Mark Williams making Oso a straight C helps Miles
Jalen GreenGallagher #119Had played 186 games straight before hamstring kept him to 32 games; did get up to 30 MPG in March
Collin GillespieGallagher #141He's been ultra efficient and would get huge boost with injuries to Book and/or Green
Oso IghodaroGallagher #136Oso is the dog to start and isn't great per minute, but what if ManMan isn't ready?
Khaman MaluachGallagher #106Just started playing basketball in 2019 and it might be starting to come together; expecting him to start
Mark WilliamsDepth chartLabrum surgery likely gets him back between All-Star break or he's out for the year
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Jalen Green
30.3 mpg × 66 g = 2,015
Collin Gillespie
25.6 mpg × 68 g = 1,753
Jamaree Bouyea
9.7 mpg × 45 g = 438
SG
Devin Booker
34.2 mpg × 64 g = 2,190
Luke Kennard
21.9 mpg × 63 g = 1,383
Pat Spencer 2W
5.8 mpg × 21 g = 122
SF
Dillon Brooks
29.3 mpg × 64 g = 1,890
Jordan Goodwin
20.7 mpg × 62 g = 1,271
Ryan Dunn
14.5 mpg × 61 g = 884
PF
Miles Bridges
30.5 mpg × 70 g = 2,133
Rasheer Fleming
17.5 mpg × 58 g = 1,008
Koa Peat
5.5 mpg × 45 g = 249
C
Khaman Maluach
24.1 mpg × 64 g = 1,546
Oso Ighodaro
25.4 mpg × 68 g = 1,720
Mark Williams IR
20.0 mpg × 9 g = 189

Not on ETR's depth chart: Duop Reath, Drew Timme

Schedule 3 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
DateOpp (net that game)Our netWin %ResultOur players out
2026-10-21@ POR +2.533%L 83-124
2026-10-24vs GSW +0.354%W 131-122
2026-10-26@ OKC +4.727%L 114-125
2026-10-30vs DEN +3.4-1.143%Mark Williams
2026-11-02@ GSW -0.3-0.841%Mark Williams
2026-11-04vs POR +2.4-0.847%Mark Williams
2026-11-05vs ORL -0.2-0.855%Mark Williams
2026-11-07vs HOU +4.4-0.841%Mark Williams
2026-11-09vs SAS +5.9-0.836%Mark Williams
2026-11-10vs LAC -3.9-0.867%Mark Williams
2026-11-12vs CHA -0.2-0.856%Mark Williams
2026-11-15vs LAL +2.3-0.847%Mark Williams
2026-11-16@ DEN +3.4-0.830%Mark Williams
2026-11-18@ SAC -8.4-0.866%Mark Williams
2026-11-20@ UTA -4.4-0.854%Mark Williams
2026-11-23@ NOP -4.6-0.855%Mark Williams
2026-11-25@ HOU +5.3-0.825%Mark Williams
2026-11-27vs DAL -4.3-0.868%Mark Williams
2026-11-29@ UTA -4.4-0.854%Mark Williams
2026-12-01vs LAC -4.4-0.868%Mark Williams
2026-12-02vs SAC -8.4-0.879%Mark Williams
2026-12-12vs MIN +2.8-0.846%Mark Williams
2026-12-14vs ATL +0.8-0.852%Mark Williams
2026-12-16@ DET +3.8-0.829%Mark Williams
2026-12-18@ MIL -6.5-0.861%Mark Williams
2026-12-20@ MEM -3.4-0.851%Mark Williams
2026-12-21@ MIN +2.8-0.832%Mark Williams
2026-12-23vs IND -0.0-0.855%Mark Williams
2026-12-26@ DAL -4.3-0.854%Mark Williams
2026-12-28vs GSW -0.2-0.855%Mark Williams
2026-12-30vs PHI +2.5-0.847%Mark Williams
2026-12-31vs NYK +5.0-0.839%Mark Williams
2027-01-02vs SAC -8.4-0.879%Mark Williams
2027-01-04vs BOS +6.3-0.835%Mark Williams
2027-01-05@ DEN +3.4-0.830%Mark Williams
2027-01-08@ DAL -4.3-0.854%Mark Williams
2027-01-10vs CHI -5.2-0.870%Mark Williams
2027-01-13@ TOR +2.8-0.832%Mark Williams
2027-01-15@ IND -0.0-0.840%Mark Williams
2027-01-18@ LAC -3.2-0.850%Mark Williams
2027-01-20vs MEM -3.4-0.865%Mark Williams
2027-01-22vs UTA -4.4-0.868%Mark Williams
2027-01-24vs UTA -4.4-0.868%Mark Williams
2027-01-26@ NYK +5.0-0.826%Mark Williams
2027-01-27@ BKN -5.7-0.858%Mark Williams
2027-01-29@ BOS +6.3-0.823%Mark Williams
2027-01-31@ MIN +2.8-0.832%Mark Williams
2027-02-03vs CLE +2.3-0.848%Mark Williams
2027-02-05vs HOU +5.3-0.838%Mark Williams
2027-02-06@ SAC -8.4-0.866%Mark Williams
2027-02-08vs LAL +2.3-0.847%Mark Williams
2027-02-10vs DET +3.8-0.843%Mark Williams
2027-02-12@ ATL +0.8-0.838%Mark Williams
2027-02-14@ CLE +2.3-0.833%Mark Williams
2027-02-15@ WAS -5.1-0.856%Mark Williams
2027-02-17@ PHI +2.5-0.833%Mark Williams
2027-02-25@ NOP -4.6-0.855%Mark Williams
2027-02-27vs NOP -4.6-0.869%Mark Williams
2027-03-01vs WAS -5.1-0.571%
2027-03-03vs BKN -5.7-0.572%
2027-03-05vs MIN +2.8-0.547%
2027-03-08@ MIA +0.5-0.540%
2027-03-09@ ORL +1.0-0.538%
2027-03-11@ CHI -5.2-0.557%
2027-03-13@ CHA -0.2-0.542%
2027-03-15@ MEM -3.4-0.552%
2027-03-17@ LAL +2.3-0.534%
2027-03-19vs MIA +0.5-0.554%
2027-03-21vs POR +2.8-0.547%
2027-03-23vs OKC +4.7-0.541%
2027-03-24vs OKC +4.7-0.541%
2027-03-26vs MIL -6.5-0.574%
2027-03-28vs TOR +2.8-0.547%
2027-03-29@ SAS +5.9-0.524%
2027-03-31@ SAS +5.9-0.524%
2027-04-02vs DEN +3.4-0.545%
2027-04-04@ LAC -3.0-0.550%
2027-04-06@ GSW +1.2-0.537%
2027-04-09vs MEM -3.4-0.566%
2027-04-11@ LAL +2.3-0.534%
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)

Bottom line: Ott's center battle swung back and forth (Oso Ighodaro vs. rookie Khaman Maluach). Bridges is the only real four, the bench is guard-heavy, and the offense spreads the handling instead of featuring Jalen Green.

Usage & ball-handling
  • Devin Booker: 7 FGA and 4 FTA in 16 minutes. ETR expects his usage to tick up.
  • Jalen Green: healthy, with some highlight plays, but didn't dominate the ball. The Suns spread handling (15 first-half assists in one game).
  • Miles Bridges: impact in transition (four assists) on a team that lacks fours. Minor ankle tweak.
Minutes & rotation
  • Starters: Green, Booker, Dillon Brooks, Bridges, plus a center. Ighodaro started Oct 5 and 7, and Maluach started Oct 10, 14 and 16.
  • Maluach out-minuted Ighodaro even when Ighodaro started (12.5 to 11.5 in a first half). He had 10/15/3 against Wemby, but rebounding is a concern (9 boards in 42 minutes over two games) and ETR moved him down late.
  • Ott wants "48 minutes of great center play."
  • Bench: Collin Gillespie (kept in the second unit), Jordan Goodwin, Luke Kennard (minor knee soreness), Ryan Dunn (earned a rotation spot, with first-half minutes every game). Rasheer Fleming picked up PF minutes when Bridges was hurt.
  • ETR moves: Maluach's projection cut, Dunn bumped.
Who plays together
  • The second unit is very guard-heavy: Gillespie, Goodwin, Kennard, Dunn.
  • With Booker and Bridges out, Kennard and Dunn moved into the first unit.
Pace & shot selection
  • The ball moves and handling is shared. The Suns picked up full court (they hounded Giddey).

Player by player

PlayerModel GPModel MPGModel minPreseason read
Devin Booker6434.22,190No. 1 option, usage ticking up.
Jalen Green6630.32,015Starter. Didn't dominate the ball.
Dillon Brooks6429.31,890Starting wing and stopper.
Miles Bridges7030.52,133The only true four. Slight ankle tweak.
Khaman Maluach6424.11,546Rookie, likely starting C by the end. Rebounding concern.
Oso Ighodaro6825.41,720Started the first two games, was inactive in the finale.
Collin Gillespie6825.61,753Second-unit guard.
Ryan Dunn6114.5884Earned a rotation spot.
Luke Kennard6321.91,383Bench shooter, minor knee soreness.
Jordan Goodwin6220.71,271Second-unit guard.

Preseason starting lineups

GameOppStartersOut (ETR's noteworthy inactives)
Oct 5DETJalen Green, Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, Miles Bridges, Oso IghodaroMark Williams
Oct 7CHIJalen Green, Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, Miles Bridges, Oso Ighodaro
Oct 10SASJalen Green, Luke Kennard, Ryan Dunn, Dillon Brooks, Khaman MaluachDevin Booker, Miles Bridges
Oct 14SASJamaree Bouyea, Luke Kennard, Ryan Dunn, Haywood Highsmith, Khaman MaluachDevin Booker, Jalen Green, Miles Bridges, Dillon Brooks, Oso Ighodaro, Collin Gillespie

Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.