GSW Warriors #16 of 30
Projected wins
41.3
FanDuel 34.5 (o-140 / u+110) · record 1-3
Net rating
+0.32
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off +1.46 · def +1.11
Next game / full strength
+1.21 / +1.20
2026-10-28 @ MIN (Monster daily minutes) · out: Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis
DARKO vs market
+1.22 / -0.59
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 43.3 / 39.3
Minutes covered
18,720
of 18,720 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
18
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
-0.16
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
91% ETR
4% MPG from ETR FPPG · 3% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
100 pts
38 reb · 26 ast · 13.4 3pm · 91% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
| Player | ETR slot | Pos | Age | GP | MPG | Min | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TO | FG% z | FT% z | FPPG | 9-cat rk | Share % | DPM | Mkt | Rating | O | D | O ctb | D ctb | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | C1 | F | 24 | 66 | 31.7 | 2,098 | 13.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | +0.26 | +0.21 | 29.8 | 89 | 11.2 | +1.17 | -1.00 | +0.09 | +1.33 | -0.16 | +0.74 | -0.09 | +0.05 |
| Brandin Podziemski | SG1 | G | 23 | 68 | 30.5 | 2,080 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 | -0.49 | -0.03 | 27.8 | 106 | 11.1 | +0.99 | -0.81 | +0.09 | +0.77 | +0.23 | +0.42 | +0.13 | +0.05 |
| Gui Santos | SF1 | F | 24 | 66 | 26.7 | 1,767 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | +0.16 | -0.14 | 24.2 | 146 | 9.4 | +1.34 | -1.32 | +0.01 | +0.81 | +0.53 | +0.38 | +0.25 | +0.01 |
| Stephen Curry | PG1 | G | 38 | 55 | 31.7 | 1,755 | 25.4 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 4.6 | 2.9 | -0.85 | +1.52 | 39.2 | 24 | 9.4 | +2.52 | +4.72 | +3.62 | +4.10 | -1.58 | +1.93 | -0.74 | +1.70 |
| Draymond Green | PF1 | F | 36 | 59 | 28.0 | 1,657 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 2.4 | -0.39 | -0.18 | 25.3 | 179 | 8.9 | -0.11 | +1.97 | +0.93 | -2.31 | +2.20 | -1.03 | +0.98 | +0.41 |
| De'Anthony Melton | SG2 | G | 28 | 55 | 23.9 | 1,319 | 12.8 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | -0.96 | +0.17 | 26.0 | 152 | 7.0 | +0.70 | -0.23 | +0.23 | -0.11 | +0.81 | -0.04 | +0.28 | +0.08 |
| Brandon Williams | PG2 | G | 26 | 58 | 21.6 | 1,257 | 13.1 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | +0.03 | +0.14 | 23.7 | 241 | 6.7 | -0.04 | -2.96 | -1.50 | +0.53 | -0.57 | +0.18 | -0.19 | -0.50 |
| Will Richard | SF2 | G | 23 | 64 | 19.1 | 1,227 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | -0.13 | +0.05 | 14.3 | 283 | 6.6 | -0.45 | -1.55 | -1.00 | -0.77 | +0.32 | -0.25 | +0.10 | -0.33 |
| Al Horford | C2 | C | 40 | 52 | 23.1 | 1,209 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | -0.31 | +0.04 | 21.9 | 166 | 6.5 | -0.74 | +1.75 | +0.50 | -1.31 | +0.57 | -0.43 | +0.19 | +0.16 |
| Gary Payton II | G | 33 | 60 | 17.5 | 1,053 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | +0.48 | -0.16 | 17.2 | 254 | 5.6 | -0.28 | -0.99 | -0.63 | -0.36 | +0.09 | -0.10 | +0.02 | -0.18 | |
| Georges Niang | PF2 | F | 33 | 45 | 14.3 | 643 | 9.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | -0.21 | +0.11 | 15.5 | 297 | 3.4 | -1.47 | -0.10 | -0.79 | -0.73 | -0.74 | -0.12 | -0.13 | -0.14 |
| Charles Bassey | C3 | C | 25 | 43 | 13.2 | 574 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | +0.73 | -0.48 | 21.7 | 218 | 3.1 | -0.05 | -2.42 | -1.24 | -0.34 | +0.29 | -0.05 | +0.05 | -0.19 |
| Graham Ike | F | 24 | 44 | 11.7 | 518 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.8 | -2.31 | -0.51 | -1.41 | -2.26 | -0.05 | -0.32 | -0.01 | -0.20 | |
| Malevy LeonsETR depth fill | PF3 | F | 27 | 43 | 8.9 | 385 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.1 | -0.05 | -0.84 | -0.44 | -1.21 | +1.16 | -0.13 | +0.12 | -0.05 |
| Kristaps PorzingisINJ 25g · back 12-23mpg from ETR FPPG | C1 | C | 31 | 15 | 25.2 | 378 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.0 | +1.53 | +0.91 | +1.22 | +0.59 | +0.94 | +0.06 | +0.09 | +0.12 |
| Jimmy ButlerINJ 50g · back 02-10 | SF2 | F | 37 | 14 | 27.0 | 368 | 17.4 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | +0.33 | +1.15 | 33.4 | 136 | 2.0 | +2.01 | +3.82 | +2.92 | +1.33 | +0.69 | +0.13 | +0.07 | +0.29 |
| Moses MoodyINJ 45g · back 02-01mpg from ETR FPPG | SF1 | G | 24 | 17 | 19.0 | 326 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.7 | +1.03 | +0.98 | +1.00 | +0.69 | +0.34 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.09 |
| L.J. CryerETR depth fill | SG3 | G | 25 | 16 | 6.8 | 108 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.6 | -1.18 | -2.15 | -1.67 | +0.26 | -1.44 | +0.01 | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| Team | 18,720 | 100.1 | 38.2 | 26.4 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 100 | +2.56 | +0.11 | +1.45 | +1.11 | +1.33 |
PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.
Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
| Player | Inj | Risk | Out until | Games out | Played | Mon % | ETR % | Avail % | Next % | Exp GP | Season G | ETR G | Mon G | ETR MPG | Mon MPG | Role MPG | Exp min | Monster note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler | INJ 50g | extreme | 2027-02-10 | 50 | 0 | 61 | 37 | 49 | 0 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 30 | 17 | 28.3 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 368 | Injured - torn acl (Injury) - Est. Return 02/10 |
| Moses Moody | INJ 45g | high | 2027-02-01 | 45 | 0 | 64 | 40 | 52 | 0 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 33 | 21 | 22.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 326 | Injured - patella tendon (Injury) - Est. Return 02/01 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | INJ 25g | extreme | 2026-12-23 | 25 | 0 | 15 | 42 | 28 | 0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 34 | 8 | 27.7 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 378 | Injured - considering potential retirement (Illness) - Est. Return 12/23 |
| Stephen Curry | high | 0 | 3 | 72 | 69 | 70 | 100 | 55.3 | 58.3 | 57 | 56 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 1,755 | |||
| Yaxel Lendeborg | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 82 | 85 | 50 | 66.1 | 70.1 | 68 | 69 | 29.0 | 33.0 | 31.0 | 2,098 | |||
| Brandin Podziemski | med | 0 | 2 | 88 | 86 | 87 | 100 | 68.1 | 70.1 | 69 | 69 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 29.8 | 2,080 | |||
| Draymond Green | high | 0 | 3 | 78 | 73 | 76 | 100 | 59.2 | 62.2 | 60 | 61 | 26.6 | 28.0 | 27.3 | 1,657 | |||
| Gui Santos | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 81 | 85 | 100 | 66.2 | 70.2 | 67 | 69 | 26.2 | 26.0 | 26.1 | 1,767 | |||
| De'Anthony Melton | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 58 | 70 | 100 | 55.3 | 59.3 | 49 | 65 | 25.7 | 21.0 | 23.4 | 1,319 | |||
| Al Horford | med | 0 | 3 | 70 | 63 | 67 | 100 | 52.3 | 55.3 | 52 | 55 | 22.3 | 23.0 | 22.6 | 1,209 | |||
| Brandon Williams | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 60 | 74 | 100 | 58.3 | 62.3 | 51 | 69 | 22.3 | 20.0 | 21.1 | 1,257 | |||
| Will Richard | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 78 | 83 | 0 | 64.2 | 68.2 | 65 | 69 | 19.4 | 18.0 | 18.7 | 1,227 | |||
| Gary Payton II | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 70 | 77 | 100 | 60.2 | 64.2 | 59 | 65 | 16.9 | 18.0 | 17.4 | 1,053 | |||
| Georges Niang | high | 0 | 4 | 54 | 60 | 57 | 100 | 44.9 | 48.9 | 51 | 42 | 20.2 | 14.0 | 17.1 | 643 | |||
| Charles Bassey | high | 0 | 2 | 54 | 59 | 56 | 0 | 43.4 | 45.4 | 48 | 42 | 18.4 | 13.0 | 15.7 | 574 | |||
| Graham Ike | med | 0 | 4 | 56 | – | 56 | 100 | 44.4 | 48.4 | – | 44 | – | 14.0 | 14.0 | 518 | |||
| Malevy Leons | med | 0 | 3 | 56 | – | 56 | 0 | 43.4 | 46.4 | – | 44 | 11.9 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 385 |
Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.
ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
| Yaxel Lendeborg | Gallagher #80 | Old Warriors may thin out to force Kerr to play him a ton; should be a multi-cat stud |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | Depth chart | Kerr said he's going to play C |
| Brandin Podziemski | Gallagher #118 | Kerr uncharacteristically played him 34 MPG in March and a couple big injuries could lead to strong output |
| Gui Santos | Gallagher #148 | A bit boring, but the Warriors can get thin fast |
| Stephen Curry | Gallagher #32 | Just insane value from 3-pointers but Kerr won't play him heavy minutes regardless |
| De'Anthony Melton | Gallagher #140 | Finally healthy to close season since 2022 and Kerr took cap/B2B off him at end of year |
| Kristaps Porzingis | Depth chart | Out indefinitely |
| Jimmy Butler | Depth chart | Says he's ahead of schedule, targeting Jan-Feb |
| Moses Moody | Depth chart | Torn patellar tendon in his left knee, likely out for most of 2026-27 |
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Stephen Curry
31.7 mpg × 55 g = 1,755
Brandon Williams
21.6 mpg × 58 g = 1,257
SG
Brandin Podziemski
30.5 mpg × 68 g = 2,080
De'Anthony Melton
23.9 mpg × 55 g = 1,319
L.J. Cryer 2W
6.8 mpg × 16 g = 108
SF
Gui Santos
26.7 mpg × 66 g = 1,767
Will Richard
19.1 mpg × 64 g = 1,227
Moses Moody IR
19.0 mpg × 17 g = 326
Jimmy Butler IR
27.0 mpg × 14 g = 368
PF
Draymond Green
28.0 mpg × 59 g = 1,657
Georges Niang
14.3 mpg × 45 g = 643
Malevy Leons 2W
8.9 mpg × 43 g = 385
C
Yaxel Lendeborg
31.7 mpg × 66 g = 2,098
Al Horford
23.1 mpg × 52 g = 1,209
Charles Bassey
13.2 mpg × 43 g = 574
Kristaps Porzingis IR
25.2 mpg × 15 g = 378
Not on ETR's depth chart: Gary Payton II, Graham Ike
Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
| Date | Opp (net that game) | Our net | Win % | Result | Our players out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | @ LAL +2.4 | 36% | L 105-127 | ||
| 2026-10-23 | vs MEM -3.4 | 68% | L 108-111 | ||
| 2026-10-24 | @ PHX -0.7 | 46% | L 122-131 | ||
| 2026-10-26 | @ DEN +3.4 | 33% | W 134-114 | ||
| 2026-10-28 | @ MIN +1.1 | +1.2 | 43% | Monster tonight Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-10-30 | vs LAL +2.8 | -0.3 | 47% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-11-01 | vs LAC -4.2 | -0.3 | 69% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-11-02 | vs PHX -0.8 | -0.3 | 59% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-11-05 | vs MIA +0.5 | -0.3 | 55% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-11-07 | vs ORL -0.2 | -0.3 | 57% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-11-09 | vs NOP -4.7 | -0.3 | 70% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-11-11 | @ HOU +5.3 | -0.3 | 26% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-11-13 | @ SAS +5.9 | -0.3 | 25% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-11-16 | @ NOP -4.6 | -0.3 | 56% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-11-18 | @ DAL -4.3 | -0.3 | 55% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-11-19 | @ MEM -3.4 | -0.3 | 52% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-11-22 | vs BOS +6.3 | -0.3 | 36% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-11-25 | vs SAC -8.4 | -0.3 | 80% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-11-27 | @ POR +2.4 | -0.3 | 34% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-11-29 | vs LAC -4.4 | -0.3 | 70% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-12-01 | vs UTA -4.4 | -0.3 | 70% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-12-12 | @ CLE +2.3 | -0.3 | 35% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-12-14 | @ MEM -3.4 | -0.3 | 52% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-12-16 | @ IND -0.0 | -0.3 | 42% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-12-18 | @ TOR +2.8 | -0.3 | 33% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-12-20 | @ MIL -6.5 | -0.3 | 62% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-12-22 | vs DAL -4.3 | -0.3 | 69% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler; Kristaps Porzingis | |
| 2026-12-23 | @ LAC -3.2 | -0.2 | 52% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2026-12-25 | vs DEN +3.4 | -0.2 | 46% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2026-12-27 | vs MIN +2.8 | -0.2 | 48% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2026-12-28 | @ PHX -0.8 | -0.2 | 45% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2026-12-30 | vs HOU +5.3 | -0.2 | 40% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-01-02 | vs BKN -5.7 | -0.2 | 74% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-01-06 | vs NYK +5.0 | -0.2 | 41% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-01-07 | vs DET +3.8 | -0.2 | 45% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-01-09 | vs CHI -5.2 | -0.2 | 72% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-01-12 | vs SAC -8.4 | -0.2 | 80% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-01-13 | vs CHA -0.2 | -0.2 | 57% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-01-15 | @ ATL +0.8 | -0.2 | 40% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-01-17 | @ MIA +0.5 | -0.2 | 41% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-01-19 | @ ORL +1.0 | -0.2 | 39% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-01-21 | vs LAL +2.3 | -0.2 | 49% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-01-22 | vs MIL -6.5 | -0.2 | 75% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-01-24 | vs OKC +4.7 | -0.2 | 42% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-01-27 | @ POR +2.4 | -0.2 | 35% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-01-28 | @ UTA -4.4 | -0.2 | 56% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-01-30 | vs SAS +5.9 | -0.2 | 38% | Moses Moody; Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-02-01 | vs SAS +5.9 | +0.1 | 39% | Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-02-03 | @ LAC -3.2 | +0.1 | 53% | Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-02-05 | @ CHA -0.2 | +0.1 | 44% | Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-02-07 | @ DET +3.8 | +0.1 | 31% | Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-02-09 | @ CHI -5.2 | +0.1 | 59% | Jimmy Butler | |
| 2027-02-10 | @ BOS +6.3 | +1.2 | 28% | ||
| 2027-02-13 | @ NYK +5.0 | +1.2 | 31% | ||
| 2027-02-15 | vs IND +0.1 | +1.2 | 61% | ||
| 2027-02-17 | vs NOP -4.6 | +1.2 | 74% | ||
| 2027-02-25 | vs DAL -4.3 | +1.2 | 73% | ||
| 2027-03-01 | @ HOU +5.3 | +1.2 | 30% | ||
| 2027-03-02 | @ DAL -4.3 | +1.2 | 60% | ||
| 2027-03-04 | vs WAS -5.1 | +1.2 | 75% | ||
| 2027-03-07 | vs HOU +5.3 | +1.2 | 44% | ||
| 2027-03-09 | vs POR +2.8 | +1.2 | 52% | ||
| 2027-03-10 | @ SAC -8.4 | +1.2 | 72% | ||
| 2027-03-12 | @ DEN +3.4 | +1.2 | 36% | ||
| 2027-03-14 | @ LAL +2.3 | +1.2 | 39% | ||
| 2027-03-16 | vs CLE +2.3 | +1.2 | 54% | ||
| 2027-03-17 | vs MEM -3.4 | +1.2 | 71% | ||
| 2027-03-19 | vs POR +2.8 | +1.2 | 52% | ||
| 2027-03-22 | vs ATL +0.8 | +1.2 | 58% | ||
| 2027-03-24 | vs PHI +2.5 | +1.2 | 53% | ||
| 2027-03-25 | vs TOR +2.8 | +1.2 | 52% | ||
| 2027-03-27 | @ WAS -5.1 | +1.2 | 62% | ||
| 2027-03-29 | @ BKN -5.7 | +1.2 | 64% | ||
| 2027-03-31 | @ PHI +2.5 | +1.2 | 39% | ||
| 2027-04-02 | @ MIN +2.8 | +1.2 | 38% | ||
| 2027-04-04 | @ SAC -8.4 | +1.2 | 72% | ||
| 2027-04-06 | vs PHX -0.5 | +1.2 | 63% | ||
| 2027-04-08 | @ OKC +5.0 | +1.2 | 31% | ||
| 2027-04-09 | @ OKC +5.0 | +1.2 | 31% | ||
| 2027-04-11 | vs UTA -4.4 | +1.2 | 74% |
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)
Bottom line: Kerr plans to play through rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, often at center, while managing Curry's minutes. Porzingis is out indefinitely, and Horford is the only traditional big.
Usage & ball-handling
- Yaxel Lendeborg: Kerr wants him aggressive and carrying heavy usage in the non-Curry minutes, saying "we're going to play through him a lot." He had 23/10/6 in 24 minutes vs SAC (20/8/3 in 15 first-half minutes), with a green light to grab the rebound and push. Only Jokic topped him in FD points per 100.
- Stephen Curry: the lightest minutes among the starters (13–14 in first halves), managed by design. He said they may dial him back further if Golden State isn't winning.
- Brandin Podziemski: strong role as the starting SG (16 points in 19.5 minutes), staggered away from Curry.
- Draymond Green: 8 assists in one game. Kerr talked about tethering him to Curry, and they shared more minutes by Oct 10.
- Brandon Williams runs the non-Curry minutes and had 31.3% usage in the B-team game.
Minutes & rotation
- Starters: Curry, Podziemski, Gui Santos, Lendeborg, Green (Charles Bassey when Green sat). Kerr is leaning toward Santos with Porzingis out.
- Kristaps Porzingis is out indefinitely with an illness (ETR cut him again). Al Horford led the team with 15:42 in the opener's first half. Bassey got little trust early (3:58), then started the finale and got banged up.
- Georges Niang is the backup to Green and got the first crack at C2.
- De'Anthony Melton is the lead bench guy and started the second half in Curry's spot once.
- Jimmy Butler is ahead of schedule in rehab. ETR added a couple of games for him and Moses Moody.
- ETR moves: Lendeborg +0.5 MPG to lock in the starting job, and Brandon Williams up a bit.
Who plays together
- Lendeborg plays a lot of center. Kerr likes the "dynamic offense," and Melton subs for him in smaller lineups.
- Green played some PF next to Bassey.
- Podziemski is staggered from Curry. Brandon Williams also got some time alongside Curry, so he is higher in Kerr's pecking order than expected.
- ETR on the overall picture: "overlap all over the place." Kerr spreads minutes, which hurts anyone down the roster.
Pace & shot selection
- Kerr wants more transition, with Lendeborg as the grab-and-go piece.
- Small ball is forced by the lack of healthy bigs.
Player by player
| Player | Model GP | Model MPG | Model min | Preseason read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 66 | 31.7 | 2,098 | Rookie starter. Playing through him, often at C. Top-two preseason producer per minute. |
| Stephen Curry | 55 | 31.7 | 1,755 | Managed minutes (about 13–14 in first halves). |
| Brandin Podziemski | 68 | 30.5 | 2,080 | Starting SG, staggered from Curry. |
| Draymond Green | 59 | 28.0 | 1,657 | Starter. Big assist numbers. |
| Gui Santos | 66 | 26.7 | 1,767 | Likely starter with no Porzingis. Low-usage role. |
| Al Horford | 52 | 23.1 | 1,209 | The only traditional big. Heavy minutes early. |
| Charles Bassey | 43 | 13.2 | 574 | Spot C. Started the finale and got hurt. |
| De'Anthony Melton | 55 | 23.9 | 1,319 | Lead bench guard. |
| Brandon Williams | 58 | 21.6 | 1,257 | Runs non-Curry minutes. Big games when Curry sits. |
| Georges Niang | 45 | 14.3 | 643 | Backup to Green, first look at C2. |
Preseason starting lineups
| Game | Opp | Starters | Out (ETR's noteworthy inactives) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | LAL | Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Yaxel Lendeborg, Draymond Green | Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford |
| Oct 7 | POR | Brandon Williams, Dalen Terry, Will Richard, Malevy Leons, Charles Bassey | |
| Oct 10 | SAC | Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Yaxel Lendeborg, Draymond Green | |
| Oct 13 | LAL | Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Yaxel Lendeborg, Charles Bassey | Draymond Green, Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis |
Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.