CLE Cavaliers #13 of 30
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
| Player | ETR slot | Pos | Age | GP | MPG | Min | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TO | FG% z | FT% z | FPPG | 9-cat rk | Share % | DPM | Mkt | Rating | O | D | O ctb | D ctb | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | SG1 | G | 30 | 67 | 33.5 | 2,234 | 26.4 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | -0.19 | +1.08 | 42.3 | 9 | 11.8 | +4.10 | +4.51 | +4.31 | +4.71 | -0.60 | +2.78 | -0.36 | +2.54 |
| James Harden | PG1 | G | 37 | 65 | 33.9 | 2,194 | 19.8 | 4.7 | 8.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 3.1 | -0.80 | +1.29 | 39.8 | 25 | 11.6 | +2.66 | +2.52 | +2.59 | +3.15 | -0.49 | +1.83 | -0.29 | +1.50 |
| Evan Mobley | PF1 | C | 25 | 63 | 33.1 | 2,094 | 18.8 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.8 | +1.42 | -1.33 | 41.0 | 31 | 11.0 | +2.49 | +2.55 | +2.52 | +1.35 | +1.14 | +0.74 | +0.63 | +1.39 |
| Peyton Watson | SF1 | G | 24 | 64 | 30.5 | 1,944 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | +0.00 | -0.50 | 26.8 | 133 | 10.3 | -1.15 | -1.53 | -1.34 | -0.70 | -0.45 | -0.36 | -0.23 | -0.69 |
| Jarrett Allen | C1 | C | 28 | 66 | 28.4 | 1,882 | 16.2 | 9.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.2 | +2.26 | -0.84 | 34.1 | 69 | 9.9 | +2.87 | +2.22 | +2.55 | +0.84 | +2.03 | +0.41 | +1.01 | +1.26 |
| Sam Merrill | SG2 | G | 30 | 64 | 26.0 | 1,656 | 10.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | -0.40 | +0.24 | 19.6 | 169 | 8.7 | -0.15 | -0.28 | -0.22 | +0.45 | -0.59 | +0.19 | -0.26 | -0.09 |
| Jaylon Tyson | SF2 | G | 23 | 66 | 24.3 | 1,595 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | -0.09 | -0.07 | 22.6 | 183 | 8.4 | -0.55 | -0.42 | -0.48 | -0.03 | -0.52 | -0.01 | -0.22 | -0.20 |
| Meleek Thomasmpg from ETR FPPG | SF3 | G | 20 | 63 | 18.3 | 1,150 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15.0 | – | 6.1 | -2.23 | -1.47 | -1.85 | -1.66 | -0.57 | -0.51 | -0.17 | -0.56 |
| Craig Porter Jr. | PG2 | G | 26 | 61 | 17.2 | 1,051 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -0.05 | -0.08 | 17.3 | 259 | 5.5 | -0.81 | -2.39 | -1.60 | -1.51 | +0.70 | -0.41 | +0.19 | -0.44 |
| Mario Hezonjampg from ETR FPPG | PF2 | F | 31 | 57 | 17.7 | 1,007 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 13.7 | – | 5.3 | -1.70 | -2.05 | -1.88 | -1.47 | -0.23 | -0.39 | -0.06 | -0.50 |
| Nae'Qwan TomlinINJ 9g · back 11-13mpg from ETR FPPG | C2 | 54 | 16.0 | 867 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15.2 | – | 4.6 | -0.39 | -3.14 | -1.76 | -0.40 | +0.01 | -0.09 | +0.00 | -0.40 | ||
| Tyrese Proctormpg from ETR FPPG | SG3 | G | 22 | 45 | 11.8 | 530 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14.7 | – | 2.8 | -1.36 | -1.16 | -1.26 | -0.68 | -0.68 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.18 |
| Thomas Bryant | C3 | C | 29 | 58 | 7.7 | 446 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | +0.16 | +0.02 | 16.2 | 291 | 2.4 | -0.47 | -0.83 | -0.65 | -0.43 | -0.04 | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| Tristan EnarunaETR depth fill | PF3 | F | 25 | 16 | 5.2 | 82 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -0.89 | -2.16 | -1.52 | -0.67 | -0.22 | -0.01 | -0.00 | -0.03 |
| Riley MinixETR depth fill | SF4 | F | 26 | 16 | 4.9 | 78 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -1.15 | -1.73 | -1.44 | -0.50 | -0.65 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| Ernest UdehETR depth fill | C4 | 16 | 4.9 | 78 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -3.65 | – | -3.65 | -3.17 | -0.48 | -0.06 | -0.01 | -0.07 | ||
| Khalifa DiopQETR depth fill | C5 | 16 | 4.6 | 73 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -3.07 | – | -3.07 | -2.50 | -0.57 | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.06 | ||
| Team | 18,960 | 101.8 | 36.8 | 24.1 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 100 | +4.00 | +2.69 | +3.90 | +0.10 | +3.35 |
PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.
Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
| Player | Inj | Risk | Out until | Games out | Played | Mon % | ETR % | Avail % | Next % | Exp GP | Season G | ETR G | Mon G | ETR MPG | Mon MPG | Role MPG | Exp min | Monster note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nae'Qwan Tomlin | INJ 9g | high | 2026-11-13 | 9 | 0 | 83 | 72 | 77 | 0 | 54.2 | 54.2 | 59 | 58 | 19.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 867 | Injured - lower back stress (Injury) - Est. Return 11/13 |
| James Harden | high | 0 | 3 | 84 | 80 | 82 | 100 | 64.7 | 67.7 | 66 | 66 | 33.8 | 34.0 | 33.9 | 2,194 | |||
| Donovan Mitchell | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 80 | 84 | 100 | 66.7 | 69.7 | 66 | 70 | 33.9 | 33.0 | 33.5 | 2,234 | |||
| Evan Mobley | high | 0 | 3 | 84 | 76 | 80 | 100 | 63.2 | 66.2 | 63 | 66 | 32.2 | 34.0 | 33.1 | 2,094 | |||
| Peyton Watson | high | 0 | 3 | 84 | 77 | 80 | 100 | 63.7 | 66.7 | 64 | 66 | 29.9 | 31.0 | 30.5 | 1,944 | |||
| Jarrett Allen | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 78 | 84 | 100 | 66.2 | 69.2 | 65 | 70 | 28.9 | 28.0 | 28.4 | 1,882 | |||
| Sam Merrill | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 72 | 80 | 100 | 63.7 | 66.7 | 60 | 70 | 25.0 | 27.0 | 26.0 | 1,656 | |||
| Jaylon Tyson | med | 0 | 3 | 89 | 77 | 83 | 100 | 65.7 | 68.7 | 64 | 70 | 24.6 | 24.0 | 24.3 | 1,595 | |||
| Meleek Thomas | med | 0 | 1 | 89 | 70 | 79 | 100 | 62.7 | 63.7 | 56 | 70 | 18.8 | 18.0 | 18.4 | 1,150 | |||
| Mario Hezonja | high | 0 | 3 | 84 | 60 | 72 | 100 | 56.8 | 59.8 | 50 | 66 | 17.5 | 18.0 | 17.8 | 1,007 | |||
| Craig Porter Jr. | med | 0 | 2 | 89 | 68 | 78 | 0 | 61.2 | 63.2 | 56 | 70 | 19.3 | 15.0 | 17.2 | 1,051 | |||
| Tyrese Proctor | med | 0 | 2 | 57 | 58 | 58 | 0 | 44.9 | 46.9 | 48 | 45 | 18.5 | 12.0 | 15.3 | 530 | |||
| Thomas Bryant | high | 0 | 0 | 84 | 66 | 75 | 0 | 58.3 | 58.3 | 52 | 66 | 15.7 | 12.0 | 13.9 | 446 | |||
| Khalifa Diop | Q | high | 0 | 0 | 20 | – | 20 | 0 | 15.8 | 15.8 | – | 16 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 73 | Questionable - left knee injury management (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet |
Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.
ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
| Donovan Mitchell | Gallagher #15 | Excellent efficiency and shot it better from 2 next to Harden, but will lose a tad of his passing stats |
| James Harden | Gallagher #18 | Atkinson trusts him too much and Harden's durability has held up even at age 37 |
| Evan Mobley | Gallagher #27 | Letdown 25-26 despite summer hype, but was better from 2 while adding blocks and assists |
| Peyton Watson | Gallagher #116 | Maybe Atkinson plays him more than the other crop SF/PFs; what if that January 22 PPG was real? |
| Jarrett Allen | Gallagher #72 | Went nuclear early with Harden in town for insane 22/12/2 in February, but cooled off |
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
Schedule 3 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
| Date | Opp (net that game) | Our net | Win % | Result | Our players out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | @ PHI +2.5 | 42% | L 106-114 | ||
| 2026-10-24 | vs BKN -5.7 | 80% | W 125-121 | ||
| 2026-10-26 | vs MIN +2.8 | 56% | W 127-125 | ||
| 2026-10-28 | vs WAS -3.7 | +4.8 | 81% | Monster tonight Nae'Qwan Tomlin | |
| 2026-10-29 | @ ATL +0.6 | +2.4 | 49% | Nae'Qwan Tomlin | |
| 2026-10-31 | @ MIL -6.5 | +2.4 | 70% | Nae'Qwan Tomlin | |
| 2026-11-02 | vs OKC +4.7 | +2.4 | 50% | Nae'Qwan Tomlin | |
| 2026-11-04 | @ OKC +4.7 | +2.4 | 36% | Nae'Qwan Tomlin | |
| 2026-11-06 | vs PHI +2.5 | +2.4 | 57% | Nae'Qwan Tomlin | |
| 2026-11-07 | vs NYK +5.0 | +2.4 | 49% | Nae'Qwan Tomlin | |
| 2026-11-09 | @ CHA -0.2 | +2.4 | 51% | Nae'Qwan Tomlin | |
| 2026-11-11 | @ NYK +5.0 | +2.4 | 35% | Nae'Qwan Tomlin | |
| 2026-11-13 | @ MIA +0.5 | +2.3 | 48% | ||
| 2026-11-14 | vs DAL -4.3 | +2.3 | 76% | ||
| 2026-11-16 | vs CHI -5.2 | +2.3 | 78% | ||
| 2026-11-18 | vs MEM -3.4 | +2.3 | 74% | ||
| 2026-11-20 | vs IND -0.0 | +2.3 | 64% | ||
| 2026-11-23 | @ CHI -5.2 | +2.3 | 66% | ||
| 2026-11-25 | @ NYK +5.0 | +2.3 | 34% | ||
| 2026-11-29 | vs MIA +0.5 | +2.3 | 63% | ||
| 2026-12-01 | vs IND -0.0 | +2.3 | 64% | ||
| 2026-12-03 | @ CHI -5.2 | +2.3 | 66% | ||
| 2026-12-12 | vs GSW -0.3 | +2.3 | 65% | ||
| 2026-12-15 | vs SAS +5.9 | +2.3 | 46% | ||
| 2026-12-16 | @ ORL +1.0 | +2.3 | 47% | ||
| 2026-12-18 | @ DET +3.8 | +2.3 | 38% | ||
| 2026-12-20 | vs UTA -4.4 | +2.3 | 76% | ||
| 2026-12-21 | vs NYK +5.0 | +2.3 | 49% | ||
| 2026-12-23 | @ WAS -5.1 | +2.3 | 66% | ||
| 2026-12-27 | vs WAS -5.1 | +2.3 | 78% | ||
| 2026-12-28 | @ BOS +6.3 | +2.3 | 31% | ||
| 2026-12-31 | vs LAC -3.2 | +2.3 | 73% | ||
| 2027-01-02 | @ CHA -0.2 | +2.3 | 51% | ||
| 2027-01-03 | @ HOU +5.3 | +2.3 | 34% | ||
| 2027-01-05 | vs TOR +2.8 | +2.3 | 56% | ||
| 2027-01-07 | @ ORL +1.0 | +2.3 | 47% | ||
| 2027-01-09 | vs DEN +3.4 | +2.3 | 54% | ||
| 2027-01-11 | @ MIN +2.8 | +2.3 | 41% | ||
| 2027-01-13 | @ ATL +0.8 | +2.3 | 47% | ||
| 2027-01-15 | @ MIL -6.5 | +2.3 | 70% | ||
| 2027-01-16 | @ MEM -3.4 | +2.3 | 60% | ||
| 2027-01-18 | vs DET +3.8 | +2.3 | 52% | ||
| 2027-01-21 | @ BKN -5.7 | +2.3 | 68% | ||
| 2027-01-23 | @ DAL -4.3 | +2.3 | 64% | ||
| 2027-01-25 | @ NOP -4.6 | +2.3 | 64% | ||
| 2027-01-27 | vs DET +3.8 | +2.3 | 52% | ||
| 2027-01-29 | @ TOR +2.8 | +2.3 | 41% | ||
| 2027-01-30 | vs NOP -4.6 | +2.3 | 77% | ||
| 2027-02-01 | @ UTA -4.4 | +2.3 | 64% | ||
| 2027-02-03 | @ PHX -0.8 | +2.3 | 52% | ||
| 2027-02-04 | @ POR +2.4 | +2.3 | 42% | ||
| 2027-02-06 | vs ORL +1.0 | +2.3 | 61% | ||
| 2027-02-09 | vs TOR +2.8 | +2.3 | 56% | ||
| 2027-02-10 | @ IND +0.1 | +2.3 | 50% | ||
| 2027-02-12 | @ TOR +2.8 | +2.3 | 41% | ||
| 2027-02-14 | vs PHX -0.8 | +2.3 | 67% | ||
| 2027-02-16 | vs MIL -6.5 | +2.3 | 81% | ||
| 2027-02-17 | vs MIL -6.5 | +2.3 | 81% | ||
| 2027-02-25 | vs SAC -8.4 | +2.3 | 85% | ||
| 2027-02-26 | @ BOS +6.3 | +2.3 | 31% | ||
| 2027-03-01 | vs PHI +2.5 | +2.3 | 57% | ||
| 2027-03-04 | vs POR +2.8 | +2.3 | 56% | ||
| 2027-03-06 | vs ATL +0.8 | +2.3 | 62% | ||
| 2027-03-09 | @ DET +3.8 | +2.3 | 38% | ||
| 2027-03-11 | @ LAC -3.0 | +2.3 | 59% | ||
| 2027-03-12 | @ LAL +2.3 | +2.3 | 43% | ||
| 2027-03-14 | @ SAC -8.4 | +2.3 | 75% | ||
| 2027-03-16 | @ GSW +1.2 | +2.3 | 46% | ||
| 2027-03-18 | @ DEN +3.4 | +2.3 | 39% | ||
| 2027-03-20 | vs CHI -5.2 | +2.3 | 78% | ||
| 2027-03-22 | vs HOU +5.3 | +2.3 | 48% | ||
| 2027-03-25 | vs LAL +2.3 | +2.3 | 57% | ||
| 2027-03-29 | vs MIA +0.5 | +2.3 | 63% | ||
| 2027-03-31 | @ BKN -5.7 | +2.3 | 68% | ||
| 2027-04-01 | vs BOS +6.3 | +2.3 | 44% | ||
| 2027-04-04 | vs CHA -0.2 | +2.3 | 65% | ||
| 2027-04-05 | vs BKN -5.7 | +2.3 | 79% | ||
| 2027-04-07 | @ SAS +5.9 | +2.3 | 32% | ||
| 2027-04-09 | @ IND +0.0 | +2.3 | 50% | ||
| 2027-04-11 | vs ATL +0.8 | +2.3 | 62% |
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)
Bottom line: Atkinson promises a 10-man rotation (unusual for him) with seven locks. Harden takes over primary handling from Mitchell, and the two are staggered.
- James Harden: primary handler and 20 first-half points in his debut. As last year, he cuts into Mitchell's assists.
- Harden and Donovan Mitchell split the handling and are staggered, so each runs his own stretches.
- Peyton Watson led the team in first-half usage vs ORL; Cleveland is working him in quickly. He wasn't aggressive hunting his shot vs BOS.
- Jaylon Tyson: 14/3/2 on 6-of-8. Too much usage elsewhere for him to grow.
- Starters: Harden, Mitchell, Watson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen.
- Seven locks: the starters plus Sam Merrill and Tyson. Tyson has a big lead as the 6th/7th man.
- Last three spots, in ETR's order: Mario Hezonja, Meleek Thomas, Craig Porter Jr., Nae'Qwan Tomlin. Tyrese Proctor played ninth when Merrill sat. Thomas Bryant was cut (no C2 role).
- Starters played just under 17 first-half minutes each vs BOS.
- Hezonja was PF2 with Tomlin out.
- No backup center in the first half vs ORL: Mobley was staggered away from Allen to cover all the center minutes. That's why Bryant got cut.
- Merrill subs for Mitchell and Hezonja for Allen. ETR called it a "stagger fest."
- Watson is expected to guard on the ball when the team is healthy, which could cost him blocks.
- Pounded on the boards by Boston's B team, a long-running issue. They posted the NBA's worst first-half defensive rating that night (142.0).
- Orlando put 64 paint points on them on Oct 13.
Player by player
| Player | Model GP | Model MPG | Model min | Preseason read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 65 | 33.9 | 2,194 | Primary handler, staggered with Mitchell. |
| Donovan Mitchell | 67 | 33.5 | 2,234 | Shares handling, fewer assists with Harden. |
| Evan Mobley | 63 | 33.1 | 2,094 | Starter and also the backup center in Allen's rest minutes. |
| Jarrett Allen | 66 | 28.4 | 1,882 | Starting C. No traditional C2 behind him. |
| Peyton Watson | 64 | 30.5 | 1,944 | New starter, led one first half in usage. The 10-man rotation helps his minutes. |
| Jaylon Tyson | 66 | 24.3 | 1,595 | Sixth or seventh man with a big gap over the rest. Efficient. |
| Sam Merrill | 64 | 26.0 | 1,656 | Rotation lock, subs for Mitchell. |
| Mario Hezonja | 57 | 17.7 | 1,007 | First of the fringe group, PF2 with Tomlin out. |
| Tyrese Proctor | 45 | 11.8 | 530 | Ninth when Merrill was out. |
| Craig Porter Jr. | 61 | 17.2 | 1,051 | Fringe 9th/10th. |
Preseason starting lineups
| Game | Opp | Starters | Out (ETR's noteworthy inactives) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | BOS | Donovan Mitchell, Jaylon Tyson, Peyton Watson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen | James Harden |
| Oct 11 | ORL | James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen | Nae’Qwan Tomlin |
| Oct 13 | ORL | James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen | Nae’Qwan Tomlin, Sam Merrill |
Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.