NBA 2026-27 Wins Model

built 2026-10-28 15:40 · darko 2026-10-28 15:40 · rosters 2026-10-28 15:40 · schedule 2026-10-28 15:40 · build 2026-10-28 15:40 · etr 2026-10-28 15:40 · monster_ros 2026-10-28 15:40 · fanduel 2026-10-28 15:40 · sim 2026-10-28 15:40

CLE Cavaliers #13 of 30

Projected wins
47.0
FanDuel 48.5 (o-120 / u-105) · record 2-1
Net rating
+2.33
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off +3.89 · def +0.11
Next game / full strength
+4.83 / +2.28
2026-10-28 vs WAS (Monster daily minutes) · out: Nae'Qwan Tomlin
DARKO vs market
+2.66 / +2.00
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 48.0 / 46.0
Minutes covered
18,960
of 18,960 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
17
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
-0.13
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
80% ETR
19% MPG from ETR FPPG · 2% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
102 pts
37 reb · 24 ast · 11.1 3pm · 80% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
PlayerETR slotPosAgeGPMPGMinPTSREBASTSTLBLK3PMTOFG% zFT% zFPPG9-cat rkShare %DPMMktRatingODO ctbD ctbContrib
Donovan MitchellSG1G306733.52,23426.44.35.51.40.33.12.5-0.19+1.0842.3911.8+4.10+4.51+4.31+4.71-0.60+2.78-0.36+2.54
James HardenPG1G376533.92,19419.84.78.41.10.52.73.1-0.80+1.2939.82511.6+2.66+2.52+2.59+3.15-0.49+1.83-0.29+1.50
Evan MobleyPF1C256333.12,09418.89.23.80.81.61.01.8+1.42-1.3341.03111.0+2.49+2.55+2.52+1.35+1.14+0.74+0.63+1.39
Peyton WatsonSF1G246430.51,94413.04.92.10.91.11.31.3+0.00-0.5026.813310.3-1.15-1.53-1.34-0.70-0.45-0.36-0.23-0.69
Jarrett AllenC1C286628.41,88216.29.22.00.80.90.11.2+2.26-0.8434.1699.9+2.87+2.22+2.55+0.84+2.03+0.41+1.01+1.26
Sam MerrillSG2G306426.01,65610.82.62.50.70.22.70.7-0.40+0.2419.61698.7-0.15-0.28-0.22+0.45-0.59+0.19-0.26-0.09
Jaylon TysonSF2G236624.31,59511.74.72.20.70.31.81.3-0.09-0.0722.61838.4-0.55-0.42-0.48-0.03-0.52-0.01-0.22-0.20
Meleek Thomasmpg from ETR FPPGSF3G206318.31,150–––––––––15.0–6.1-2.23-1.47-1.85-1.66-0.57-0.51-0.17-0.56
Craig Porter Jr.PG2G266117.21,0515.33.23.20.90.50.70.9-0.05-0.0817.32595.5-0.81-2.39-1.60-1.51+0.70-0.41+0.19-0.44
Mario Hezonjampg from ETR FPPGPF2F315717.71,007–––––––––13.7–5.3-1.70-2.05-1.88-1.47-0.23-0.39-0.06-0.50
Nae'Qwan TomlinINJ 9g · back 11-13mpg from ETR FPPGC25416.0867–––––––––15.2–4.6-0.39-3.14-1.76-0.40+0.01-0.09+0.00-0.40
Tyrese Proctormpg from ETR FPPGSG3G224511.8530–––––––––14.7–2.8-1.36-1.16-1.26-0.68-0.68-0.10-0.10-0.18
Thomas BryantC3C29587.74467.64.30.90.30.50.90.6+0.16+0.0216.22912.4-0.47-0.83-0.65-0.43-0.04-0.05-0.01-0.08
Tristan EnarunaETR depth fillPF3F25165.282–––––––––––0.4-0.89-2.16-1.52-0.67-0.22-0.01-0.00-0.03
Riley MinixETR depth fillSF4F26164.978–––––––––––0.4-1.15-1.73-1.44-0.50-0.65-0.01-0.01-0.03
Ernest UdehETR depth fillC4164.978–––––––––––0.4-3.65–-3.65-3.17-0.48-0.06-0.01-0.07
Khalifa DiopQETR depth fillC5164.673–––––––––––0.4-3.07–-3.07-2.50-0.57-0.05-0.01-0.06
Team18,960101.836.824.16.04.711.110.7100+4.00+2.69+3.90+0.10+3.35

PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.

Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
PlayerInjRiskOut untilGames outPlayedMon %ETR %Avail %Next %Exp GPSeason GETR GMon GETR MPGMon MPGRole MPGExp minMonster note
Nae'Qwan TomlinINJ 9ghigh2026-11-1390837277054.254.2595819.016.016.0867Injured - lower back stress (Injury) - Est. Return 11/13
James Hardenhigh0384808210064.767.7666633.834.033.92,194
Donovan Mitchellmed0389808410066.769.7667033.933.033.52,234
Evan Mobleyhigh0384768010063.266.2636632.234.033.12,094
Peyton Watsonhigh0384778010063.766.7646629.931.030.51,944
Jarrett Allenmed0389788410066.269.2657028.928.028.41,882
Sam Merrillmed0389728010063.766.7607025.027.026.01,656
Jaylon Tysonmed0389778310065.768.7647024.624.024.31,595
Meleek Thomasmed0189707910062.763.7567018.818.018.41,150
Mario Hezonjahigh0384607210056.859.8506617.518.017.81,007
Craig Porter Jr.med02896878061.263.2567019.315.017.21,051
Tyrese Proctormed02575858044.946.9484518.512.015.3530
Thomas Bryanthigh00846675058.358.3526615.712.013.9446
Khalifa DiopQhigh0020–20015.815.8–1611.85.08.473Questionable - left knee injury management (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet

Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.

ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
Donovan MitchellGallagher #15Excellent efficiency and shot it better from 2 next to Harden, but will lose a tad of his passing stats
James HardenGallagher #18Atkinson trusts him too much and Harden's durability has held up even at age 37
Evan MobleyGallagher #27Letdown 25-26 despite summer hype, but was better from 2 while adding blocks and assists
Peyton WatsonGallagher #116Maybe Atkinson plays him more than the other crop SF/PFs; what if that January 22 PPG was real?
Jarrett AllenGallagher #72Went nuclear early with Harden in town for insane 22/12/2 in February, but cooled off
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
James Harden
33.9 mpg × 65 g = 2,194
Craig Porter Jr.
17.2 mpg × 61 g = 1,051
SG
Donovan Mitchell
33.5 mpg × 67 g = 2,234
Sam Merrill
26.0 mpg × 64 g = 1,656
Tyrese Proctor
11.8 mpg × 45 g = 530
SF
Peyton Watson
30.5 mpg × 64 g = 1,944
Jaylon Tyson
24.3 mpg × 66 g = 1,595
Meleek Thomas
18.3 mpg × 63 g = 1,150
Riley Minix 2W
4.9 mpg × 16 g = 78
PF
Evan Mobley
33.1 mpg × 63 g = 2,094
Mario Hezonja
17.7 mpg × 57 g = 1,007
Tristan Enaruna 2W
5.2 mpg × 16 g = 82
C
Jarrett Allen
28.4 mpg × 66 g = 1,882
Nae'Qwan Tomlin
16.0 mpg × 54 g = 867
Thomas Bryant
7.7 mpg × 58 g = 446
Ernest Udeh 2W
4.9 mpg × 16 g = 78
Khalifa Diop
4.6 mpg × 16 g = 73
Schedule 3 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
DateOpp (net that game)Our netWin %ResultOur players out
2026-10-22@ PHI +2.542%L 106-114
2026-10-24vs BKN -5.780%W 125-121
2026-10-26vs MIN +2.856%W 127-125
2026-10-28vs WAS -3.7+4.881%Monster tonight Nae'Qwan Tomlin
2026-10-29@ ATL +0.6+2.449%Nae'Qwan Tomlin
2026-10-31@ MIL -6.5+2.470%Nae'Qwan Tomlin
2026-11-02vs OKC +4.7+2.450%Nae'Qwan Tomlin
2026-11-04@ OKC +4.7+2.436%Nae'Qwan Tomlin
2026-11-06vs PHI +2.5+2.457%Nae'Qwan Tomlin
2026-11-07vs NYK +5.0+2.449%Nae'Qwan Tomlin
2026-11-09@ CHA -0.2+2.451%Nae'Qwan Tomlin
2026-11-11@ NYK +5.0+2.435%Nae'Qwan Tomlin
2026-11-13@ MIA +0.5+2.348%
2026-11-14vs DAL -4.3+2.376%
2026-11-16vs CHI -5.2+2.378%
2026-11-18vs MEM -3.4+2.374%
2026-11-20vs IND -0.0+2.364%
2026-11-23@ CHI -5.2+2.366%
2026-11-25@ NYK +5.0+2.334%
2026-11-29vs MIA +0.5+2.363%
2026-12-01vs IND -0.0+2.364%
2026-12-03@ CHI -5.2+2.366%
2026-12-12vs GSW -0.3+2.365%
2026-12-15vs SAS +5.9+2.346%
2026-12-16@ ORL +1.0+2.347%
2026-12-18@ DET +3.8+2.338%
2026-12-20vs UTA -4.4+2.376%
2026-12-21vs NYK +5.0+2.349%
2026-12-23@ WAS -5.1+2.366%
2026-12-27vs WAS -5.1+2.378%
2026-12-28@ BOS +6.3+2.331%
2026-12-31vs LAC -3.2+2.373%
2027-01-02@ CHA -0.2+2.351%
2027-01-03@ HOU +5.3+2.334%
2027-01-05vs TOR +2.8+2.356%
2027-01-07@ ORL +1.0+2.347%
2027-01-09vs DEN +3.4+2.354%
2027-01-11@ MIN +2.8+2.341%
2027-01-13@ ATL +0.8+2.347%
2027-01-15@ MIL -6.5+2.370%
2027-01-16@ MEM -3.4+2.360%
2027-01-18vs DET +3.8+2.352%
2027-01-21@ BKN -5.7+2.368%
2027-01-23@ DAL -4.3+2.364%
2027-01-25@ NOP -4.6+2.364%
2027-01-27vs DET +3.8+2.352%
2027-01-29@ TOR +2.8+2.341%
2027-01-30vs NOP -4.6+2.377%
2027-02-01@ UTA -4.4+2.364%
2027-02-03@ PHX -0.8+2.352%
2027-02-04@ POR +2.4+2.342%
2027-02-06vs ORL +1.0+2.361%
2027-02-09vs TOR +2.8+2.356%
2027-02-10@ IND +0.1+2.350%
2027-02-12@ TOR +2.8+2.341%
2027-02-14vs PHX -0.8+2.367%
2027-02-16vs MIL -6.5+2.381%
2027-02-17vs MIL -6.5+2.381%
2027-02-25vs SAC -8.4+2.385%
2027-02-26@ BOS +6.3+2.331%
2027-03-01vs PHI +2.5+2.357%
2027-03-04vs POR +2.8+2.356%
2027-03-06vs ATL +0.8+2.362%
2027-03-09@ DET +3.8+2.338%
2027-03-11@ LAC -3.0+2.359%
2027-03-12@ LAL +2.3+2.343%
2027-03-14@ SAC -8.4+2.375%
2027-03-16@ GSW +1.2+2.346%
2027-03-18@ DEN +3.4+2.339%
2027-03-20vs CHI -5.2+2.378%
2027-03-22vs HOU +5.3+2.348%
2027-03-25vs LAL +2.3+2.357%
2027-03-29vs MIA +0.5+2.363%
2027-03-31@ BKN -5.7+2.368%
2027-04-01vs BOS +6.3+2.344%
2027-04-04vs CHA -0.2+2.365%
2027-04-05vs BKN -5.7+2.379%
2027-04-07@ SAS +5.9+2.332%
2027-04-09@ IND +0.0+2.350%
2027-04-11vs ATL +0.8+2.362%
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)

Bottom line: Atkinson promises a 10-man rotation (unusual for him) with seven locks. Harden takes over primary handling from Mitchell, and the two are staggered.

Usage & ball-handling
  • James Harden: primary handler and 20 first-half points in his debut. As last year, he cuts into Mitchell's assists.
  • Harden and Donovan Mitchell split the handling and are staggered, so each runs his own stretches.
  • Peyton Watson led the team in first-half usage vs ORL; Cleveland is working him in quickly. He wasn't aggressive hunting his shot vs BOS.
  • Jaylon Tyson: 14/3/2 on 6-of-8. Too much usage elsewhere for him to grow.
Minutes & rotation
  • Starters: Harden, Mitchell, Watson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen.
  • Seven locks: the starters plus Sam Merrill and Tyson. Tyson has a big lead as the 6th/7th man.
  • Last three spots, in ETR's order: Mario Hezonja, Meleek Thomas, Craig Porter Jr., Nae'Qwan Tomlin. Tyrese Proctor played ninth when Merrill sat. Thomas Bryant was cut (no C2 role).
  • Starters played just under 17 first-half minutes each vs BOS.
  • Hezonja was PF2 with Tomlin out.
Who plays together
  • No backup center in the first half vs ORL: Mobley was staggered away from Allen to cover all the center minutes. That's why Bryant got cut.
  • Merrill subs for Mitchell and Hezonja for Allen. ETR called it a "stagger fest."
  • Watson is expected to guard on the ball when the team is healthy, which could cost him blocks.
Pace & shot selection
  • Pounded on the boards by Boston's B team, a long-running issue. They posted the NBA's worst first-half defensive rating that night (142.0).
  • Orlando put 64 paint points on them on Oct 13.

Player by player

PlayerModel GPModel MPGModel minPreseason read
James Harden6533.92,194Primary handler, staggered with Mitchell.
Donovan Mitchell6733.52,234Shares handling, fewer assists with Harden.
Evan Mobley6333.12,094Starter and also the backup center in Allen's rest minutes.
Jarrett Allen6628.41,882Starting C. No traditional C2 behind him.
Peyton Watson6430.51,944New starter, led one first half in usage. The 10-man rotation helps his minutes.
Jaylon Tyson6624.31,595Sixth or seventh man with a big gap over the rest. Efficient.
Sam Merrill6426.01,656Rotation lock, subs for Mitchell.
Mario Hezonja5717.71,007First of the fringe group, PF2 with Tomlin out.
Tyrese Proctor4511.8530Ninth when Merrill was out.
Craig Porter Jr.6117.21,051Fringe 9th/10th.

Preseason starting lineups

GameOppStartersOut (ETR's noteworthy inactives)
Oct 8BOSDonovan Mitchell, Jaylon Tyson, Peyton Watson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett AllenJames Harden
Oct 11ORLJames Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett AllenNae’Qwan Tomlin
Oct 13ORLJames Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett AllenNae’Qwan Tomlin, Sam Merrill

Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.