NBA 2026-27 Wins Model

built 2026-10-28 15:40 · darko 2026-10-28 15:40 · rosters 2026-10-28 15:40 · schedule 2026-10-28 15:40 · build 2026-10-28 15:40 · etr 2026-10-28 15:40 · monster_ros 2026-10-28 15:40 · fanduel 2026-10-28 15:40 · sim 2026-10-28 15:40

TOR Raptors #12 of 30

Projected wins
47.1
FanDuel 47.5 (o-120 / u-105) · record 2-1
Net rating
+2.54
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off +1.64 · def +3.33
Next game / full strength
+1.65 / +2.84
2026-10-28 vs ORL (Monster daily minutes) · out: Kawhi Leonard
DARKO vs market
+3.63 / +1.45
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 49.9 / 44.2
Minutes covered
18,960
of 18,960 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
16
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
+0.05
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
82% ETR
11% MPG from ETR FPPG · 6% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
101 pts
35 reb · 24 ast · 9.3 3pm · 82% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
PlayerETR slotPosAgeGPMPGMinPTSREBASTSTLBLK3PMTOFG% zFT% zFPPG9-cat rkShare %DPMMktRatingODO ctbD ctbContrib
Scottie BarnesPF1F256734.12,29219.37.65.91.51.40.92.9+0.39+0.1343.11312.1+2.68+2.18+2.43+1.01+1.67+0.61+1.01+1.47
Immanuel QuickleyPG1G276332.22,01917.83.95.41.10.12.81.6-0.91+0.4732.77410.6+0.87+1.12+0.99+1.10-0.23+0.58-0.12+0.53
R.J. BarrettSG1F266131.51,92821.15.53.40.70.31.82.3+0.13-0.9833.615610.2+1.27+1.00+1.14+1.77-0.50+0.90-0.26+0.58
Collin Murray-BoylesC2F216626.41,74812.76.52.41.21.30.51.3+1.25-0.6930.2819.2+0.78-0.78+0.00-0.16+0.94-0.07+0.43+0.00
Jamal SheadPG2G247024.21,6888.51.95.51.10.21.31.6-0.84-0.0221.42278.9+0.21-2.36-1.08-0.61+0.82-0.27+0.37-0.48
Ja'Kobe WalterSG2G226724.51,6439.83.11.61.10.21.80.8-0.42+0.0319.01918.7+0.35+0.11+0.23+0.01+0.35+0.00+0.15+0.10
Jakob PoeltlC1C316025.91,56211.47.32.10.90.90.01.3+1.49-0.7827.21398.2+2.17+0.86+1.52-0.32+2.50-0.13+1.02+0.63
Kawhi LeonardINJ 9g · back 11-15SF1F354931.01,50525.96.03.41.70.52.32.1+0.58+1.3442.5157.9+5.61+5.87+5.74+4.79+0.83+1.89+0.33+2.28
Allen GravesPF2F206219.11,1908.25.01.00.80.60.80.7-0.06-0.1019.12356.3-0.96-0.28-0.62-1.45+0.49-0.46+0.15-0.20
Kyle Andersonmpg from ETR FPPGPF3F336118.51,124–––––––––15.3–5.9-1.57-1.71-1.64-3.04+1.47-0.90+0.43-0.48
Trayce Jackson-Davismpg from ETR FPPGC3F265316.5882–––––––––––4.7-0.71-1.40-1.06-0.74+0.02-0.17+0.01-0.25
Jamison BattleETR depth fillSF2F257010.6742–––––––––––3.9-1.05-1.98-1.52-0.30-0.75-0.06-0.15-0.30
Jaden BradleyETR depth fillSG3G23446.4283–––––––––––1.5-2.25-1.10-1.68-1.70-0.55-0.13-0.04-0.12
Alijah MartinG24445.0223–––––––––––1.2-2.15-1.70-1.92-2.12-0.03-0.13-0.00-0.11
Malachi SmithETR depth fillSF3G26165.384–––––––––––0.4-0.76-3.22-1.99-0.41-0.35-0.01-0.01-0.04
Nate BittleINJ 9g · back 11-15C23143.549–––––––––––0.3-3.07–-3.07-2.90-0.17-0.04-0.00-0.04
Team18,960100.635.423.77.74.29.311.0100+4.95+2.13+1.62+3.33+3.56

PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.

Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
PlayerInjRiskOut untilGames outPlayedMon %ETR %Avail %Next %Exp GPSeason GETR GMon GETR MPGMon MPGRole MPGExp minMonster note
Kawhi LeonardINJ 9gextreme2026-11-1592736669048.550.5545132.131.031.01,505Injured - left knee effusion / swelling (Injury) - Est. Return 11/15
Nate BittleINJ 9ghigh2026-11-159020–20014.014.0–14–7.07.049Injured - right avulsion (Injury) - Est. Return 11/15
Scottie Barnesmed0389818510067.270.2677033.934.033.92,292
Immanuel Quickleyhigh0384757910062.765.7626632.032.032.02,019
R.J. Barretthigh0384717710061.264.2596631.631.031.31,928
Collin Murray-Boylesmed0389788410066.269.2657027.625.026.31,748
Jakob Poeltlhigh0384687610060.263.2576625.626.025.81,562
Ja'Kobe Waltermed0389818510067.270.2677024.524.024.21,643
Jamal Sheadmed0389878810069.672.6727025.323.024.21,688
Allen Gravesmed0389687810062.265.2577019.019.019.01,190
Kyle Andersonhigh0284707710060.762.7576619.118.018.61,124
Trayce Jackson-Davishigh03845368053.356.3456619.913.016.5882
Jamison Battlemed0389–8910070.173.1–7011.915.013.4742
Jaden Bradleymed0357–57044.447.4–4511.911.011.4283

Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.

ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
Scottie BarnesGallagher #13Optimized offense getting Scottie to 50.7 FG% should be sticky; late-season assist may hold even with Kawhi
Immanuel QuickleyGallagher #97Dropped him a decent bit with his lack of handling in the first preseason game
R.J. BarrettGallagher #127May not get enough shots with Kawhi in there and isn't a great category-based player
Collin Murray-BoylesGallagher #81Iced Poeltl in the postseason and might start out of the gate
Jakob PoeltlGallagher #143Really good preseason for him and he should still get low-20s minutes even if CMB breaks out
Kawhi LeonardGallagher #26Waived his trade kicker and looks ready to follow up on his best offensive season of career; lots of risk on health
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Immanuel Quickley
32.2 mpg × 63 g = 2,019
Jamal Shead
24.2 mpg × 70 g = 1,688
SG
R.J. Barrett
31.5 mpg × 61 g = 1,928
Ja'Kobe Walter
24.5 mpg × 67 g = 1,643
Jaden Bradley
6.4 mpg × 44 g = 283
SF
Kawhi Leonard
31.0 mpg × 49 g = 1,505
Jamison Battle
10.6 mpg × 70 g = 742
Malachi Smith 2W
5.3 mpg × 16 g = 84
PF
Scottie Barnes
34.1 mpg × 67 g = 2,292
Allen Graves
19.1 mpg × 62 g = 1,190
Kyle Anderson
18.5 mpg × 61 g = 1,124
C
Jakob Poeltl
25.9 mpg × 60 g = 1,562
Collin Murray-Boyles
26.4 mpg × 66 g = 1,748
Trayce Jackson-Davis
16.5 mpg × 53 g = 882

Not on ETR's depth chart: Alijah Martin, Nate Bittle

Schedule 3 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
DateOpp (net that game)Our netWin %ResultOur players out
2026-10-21vs CHI -5.179%W 135-92
2026-10-23@ WAS -5.166%W 112-102
2026-10-25@ MIN +2.842%L 94-117
2026-10-28vs ORL -0.1+1.663%Monster tonight Kawhi Leonard
2026-10-30vs ORL -0.5+0.059%Kawhi Leonard
2026-11-01@ LAL +2.8+0.034%Kawhi Leonard
2026-11-02@ LAC -4.0+0.055%Kawhi Leonard
2026-11-04@ DEN +3.4+0.032%Kawhi Leonard
2026-11-06@ MIL -6.5+0.063%Kawhi Leonard
2026-11-09vs MEM -3.4+0.068%Kawhi Leonard
2026-11-11vs BOS +6.3+0.038%Kawhi Leonard
2026-11-12@ PHI +2.5+0.035%Kawhi Leonard
2026-11-15vs NYK +5.0+2.850%
2026-11-17vs NYK +5.0+2.850%
2026-11-18vs WAS -5.1+2.879%
2026-11-20@ DET +3.8+2.840%
2026-11-23vs MIL -6.5+2.882%
2026-11-27vs BKN -5.7+2.881%
2026-11-29vs DEN +3.4+2.855%
2026-12-01@ HOU +5.3+2.835%
2026-12-03@ SAS +5.9+2.833%
2026-12-13@ OKC +4.7+2.837%
2026-12-14@ CHA -0.2+2.852%
2026-12-16vs SAS +5.9+2.847%
2026-12-18vs GSW -0.3+2.867%
2026-12-20vs HOU +5.3+2.850%
2026-12-22@ WAS -5.1+2.867%
2026-12-23@ MEM -3.4+2.862%
2026-12-26@ ORL +1.0+2.848%
2026-12-28vs NOP -4.6+2.878%
2026-12-30vs WAS -5.1+2.879%
2027-01-01vs LAC -3.2+2.875%
2027-01-03vs LAL +2.3+2.859%
2027-01-05@ CLE +2.3+2.844%
2027-01-07vs MIN +2.8+2.857%
2027-01-08vs UTA -4.4+2.878%
2027-01-10vs PHI +2.5+2.858%
2027-01-12vs DET +3.8+2.854%
2027-01-13vs PHX -0.8+2.868%
2027-01-15vs MIA +0.5+2.864%
2027-01-17@ CHI -5.2+2.868%
2027-01-19vs CHI -5.2+2.880%
2027-01-20@ NYK +5.0+2.836%
2027-01-23@ BKN -5.7+2.869%
2027-01-25@ BOS +6.3+2.832%
2027-01-27vs DAL -4.3+2.878%
2027-01-29vs CLE +2.3+2.859%
2027-01-31vs BOS +6.3+2.846%
2027-02-02@ DAL -4.3+2.865%
2027-02-04@ NYK +5.0+2.836%
2027-02-06vs MIL -6.5+2.882%
2027-02-07vs CHA -0.2+2.866%
2027-02-09@ CLE +2.3+2.844%
2027-02-12vs CLE +2.3+2.859%
2027-02-14@ BOS +6.3+2.832%
2027-02-16@ ATL +0.8+2.849%
2027-02-17@ CHA -0.2+2.852%
2027-02-26vs ATL +0.8+2.864%
2027-02-28@ IND +0.1+2.851%
2027-03-02@ MIA +0.5+2.850%
2027-03-03@ MIA +0.5+2.850%
2027-03-05vs POR +2.8+2.857%
2027-03-10vs OKC +4.7+2.851%
2027-03-12@ NOP -4.6+2.866%
2027-03-14vs DET +3.8+2.854%
2027-03-15@ PHI +2.5+2.844%
2027-03-18@ IND +0.0+2.852%
2027-03-19vs SAC -8.4+2.886%
2027-03-21@ UTA -4.4+2.865%
2027-03-23@ POR +2.8+2.843%
2027-03-25@ GSW +1.2+2.848%
2027-03-27@ SAC -8.4+2.876%
2027-03-28@ PHX -0.5+2.853%
2027-03-31@ DET +3.8+2.840%
2027-04-02vs ATL +0.8+2.864%
2027-04-04vs IND +0.0+2.866%
2027-04-06vs PHI +2.5+2.858%
2027-04-07vs BKN -5.7+2.881%
2027-04-09@ ORL +1.0+2.849%
2027-04-11@ BKN -5.7+2.869%
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)

Bottom line: Scottie Barnes is the primary handler (44% usage in the opener) and Kawhi Leonard is healthy, but Collin Murray-Boyles is a low-20s-minutes player once everyone is back. The Raptors push the pace.

Usage & ball-handling
  • Scottie Barnes: lead handler with 44.1% usage in the opener. He had 23/3/4 with four blocks vs NYK while guarding Brunson full court, and Kawhi isn't cutting into his role.
  • Kawhi Leonard: 32.6% usage in his debut (16:40 first half) and led the team in first-half minutes in the finale. He looks fit and will be managed at times, with low-30s minutes when he plays.
  • RJ Barrett: 65 TS% in the preseason, and his usage held up in the Kawhi games.
  • Immanuel Quickley: squeezed by Barnes' handling (ETR cut his projection).
  • Collin Murray-Boyles: 12/5/2 with three steals, a three and a block in the finale.
Minutes & rotation
  • Starters: Quickley, Barrett, Leonard, Barnes, Jakob Poeltl. Ja'Kobe Walter started while Kawhi sat.
  • Bench: Murray-Boyles (first sub, for Barnes), Jamal Shead (non-Quickley minutes), Walter (mostly behind Kawhi). Jamison Battle is ninth for now, and Allen Graves should pass him.
  • Poeltl looks healthy (17 first-half minutes) and is a bounce-back candidate.
Who plays together
  • Murray-Boyles played next to Poeltl a lot while Kawhi and Graves were out, but only about one minute together once the team was healthy. He is mostly Barnes' backup now.
  • Rajakovic kept the starters together for long stretches, with Quickley staggered the most.
  • Murray-Boyles picked up Giannis full court in the opener, and Barnes picked up Brunson.
Pace & shot selection
  • Seventh-lowest halfcourt frequency in the preseason. The Raptors push the pace as usual.

Player by player

PlayerModel GPModel MPGModel minPreseason read
Scottie Barnes6734.12,292Primary handler, huge usage, defensive versatility.
Kawhi Leonard4931.01,505Healthy, about 33% usage, managed minutes.
RJ Barrett6131.51,928Efficient, usage holding.
Immanuel Quickley6332.22,019Starting PG, squeezed by Barnes.
Jakob Poeltl6025.91,562Starting C, healthy.
Collin Murray-Boyles6626.41,748First big off the bench, low-20s minutes.
Jamal Shead7024.21,688Backup PG.
Ja'Kobe Walter6724.51,643Backup wing behind Kawhi.
Jamison Battle7010.6742Ninth man for now.
Allen Graves6219.11,190Expected to pass Battle.

Preseason starting lineups

GameOppStartersOut (ETR's noteworthy inactives)
Oct 10LACImmanuel Quickley, Ja’Kone Walter, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob PoeltlKawhi Leonard, Allen Graves
Oct 13NYKImmanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes, Jakob PoeltlJamison Battle
Oct 15NYKImmanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes, Jakob PoeltlAllen Graves

Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.