UTA Jazz #25 of 30
Projected wins
28.7
FanDuel 31.5 (o+145 / u-175) · record 1-3
Net rating
-4.47
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off -0.82 · def -2.21
Next game / full strength
-7.55 / -4.42
2026-10-28 vs SAS (Monster daily minutes) · out: Jusuf Nurkic; Jaren Jackson Jr.
DARKO vs market
-4.37 / -4.58
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 28.8 / 28.6
Minutes covered
18,720
of 18,720 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
19
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
+0.27
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
90% ETR
7% MPG from ETR FPPG · 2% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
111 pts
39 reb · 24 ast · 12.6 3pm · 90% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
| Player | ETR slot | Pos | Age | GP | MPG | Min | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TO | FG% z | FT% z | FPPG | 9-cat rk | Share % | DPM | Mkt | Rating | O | D | O ctb | D ctb | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George | PG1 | G | 22 | 66 | 33.2 | 2,194 | 19.9 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 2.9 | -0.96 | +1.17 | 35.0 | 86 | 11.7 | -1.40 | -1.29 | -1.34 | +0.80 | -2.20 | +0.47 | -1.29 | -0.79 |
| Lauri MarkkanenQ | SF1 | F | 29 | 62 | 34.1 | 2,101 | 23.2 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | -0.20 | +1.36 | 37.6 | 20 | 11.2 | +2.02 | +1.10 | +1.56 | +2.10 | -0.08 | +1.17 | -0.04 | +0.87 |
| Darryn Peterson | SG1 | G | 19 | 63 | 31.2 | 1,972 | 20.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | -1.21 | +0.88 | 32.7 | 80 | 10.5 | -2.56 | -2.17 | -2.36 | -1.65 | -0.91 | -0.86 | -0.48 | -1.25 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.D · back 10-31 | PF1 | F | 27 | 61 | 32.0 | 1,959 | 20.0 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | -0.17 | +0.28 | 37.1 | 34 | 10.5 | +1.11 | +2.06 | +1.59 | +0.06 | +1.05 | +0.03 | +0.55 | +0.83 |
| Ace Bailey | PF2 | G | 20 | 66 | 29.4 | 1,933 | 15.1 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | -0.44 | -0.02 | 28.2 | 98 | 10.3 | -1.90 | -2.87 | -2.38 | -0.63 | -1.27 | -0.32 | -0.66 | -1.23 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | SG2 | F | 22 | 63 | 20.9 | 1,323 | 11.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -0.29 | +0.22 | 19.9 | 245 | 7.1 | -0.94 | -2.20 | -1.57 | +1.10 | -2.03 | +0.39 | -0.72 | -0.55 |
| Jaxson HayesQ | C1 | C | 26 | 62 | 21.1 | 1,302 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.6 | +0.60 | -0.75 | 17.9 | 296 | 7.0 | +0.08 | -0.89 | -0.41 | -0.57 | +0.65 | -0.20 | +0.23 | -0.14 |
| Isaiah Collier | PG2 | G | 22 | 63 | 19.9 | 1,260 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.0 | -0.04 | -0.28 | 21.7 | 273 | 6.7 | -2.66 | -2.12 | -2.39 | -1.09 | -1.57 | -0.37 | -0.53 | -0.81 |
| Jusuf NurkicINJ 7g · back 11-11 | C1 | C | 32 | 45 | 25.0 | 1,133 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 2.1 | +0.18 | -0.93 | 29.2 | 190 | 6.1 | -0.53 | +0.33 | -0.10 | -2.08 | +1.55 | -0.64 | +0.47 | -0.03 |
| Svi Mykhailiukmpg from ETR FPPG | SF2 | G | 29 | 59 | 17.9 | 1,052 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14.0 | – | 5.6 | -0.65 | -1.35 | -1.00 | +0.24 | -0.89 | +0.07 | -0.25 | -0.28 |
| Josh Okogie | SF3 | G | 28 | 58 | 17.3 | 1,001 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | -0.24 | -0.20 | 14.6 | 279 | 5.3 | +0.61 | +1.44 | +1.03 | -0.98 | +1.59 | -0.26 | +0.42 | +0.28 |
| Kyle Filipowski | C2 | F | 22 | 48 | 14.2 | 681 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | +0.06 | -0.27 | 22.8 | 206 | 3.6 | -0.10 | -1.85 | -0.97 | +0.07 | -0.18 | +0.01 | -0.03 | -0.18 |
| Josh Greenmpg from ETR FPPG | SG3 | G | 25 | 42 | 8.0 | 338 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11.0 | – | 1.8 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.05 | -0.66 | +0.74 | -0.06 | +0.07 | +0.00 |
| Mo BambaETR depth fill | C3 | C | 28 | 20 | 7.3 | 143 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.8 | -1.46 | -2.52 | -1.99 | -2.67 | +1.21 | -0.11 | +0.05 | -0.08 |
| Tony BradleyETR depth fill | C4 | C | 28 | 19 | 6.5 | 122 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.7 | -1.65 | +0.00 | -0.82 | -2.42 | +0.77 | -0.08 | +0.03 | -0.03 |
| Trey AlexanderETR depth fill | SG5 | G | 23 | 16 | 5.0 | 79 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -1.32 | -0.47 | -0.90 | -1.12 | -0.20 | -0.02 | -0.00 | -0.02 |
| Kobe Bufkin | 16 | 4.3 | 68 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -2.62 | -2.46 | -2.54 | -1.87 | -0.76 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.05 | |||
| Harrison Ingram | F | 23 | 16 | 3.8 | 60 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.3 | -1.10 | -1.51 | -1.30 | -1.10 | +0.00 | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.02 | |
| Blake Hinsonundrafted_priorOUTETR depth fill | PF3 | F | 26 | 0 | – | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.0 | -2.20 | – | -2.20 | – | – | – | – | -0.00 |
| Team | 18,720 | 110.7 | 39.5 | 24.2 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 100 | -3.03 | -3.88 | -0.83 | -2.20 | -3.46 |
PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.
Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
| Player | Inj | Risk | Out until | Games out | Played | Mon % | ETR % | Avail % | Next % | Exp GP | Season G | ETR G | Mon G | ETR MPG | Mon MPG | Role MPG | Exp min | Monster note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jusuf Nurkic | INJ 7g | high | 2026-11-11 | 7 | 0 | 79 | 49 | 64 | 0 | 45.3 | 45.3 | 40 | 56 | 24.2 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 1,133 | Injured - toe (Injury) - Est. Return 11/11 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | D | high | 2026-10-31 | 1 | 4 | 83 | 76 | 79 | 0 | 61.1 | 65.1 | 62 | 64 | 30.9 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 1,959 | Doubtful - knee (Injury) - Est. Return 10/31 - status for next game not specified yet |
| Lauri Markkanen | Q | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 76 | 80 | 50 | 61.7 | 65.7 | 63 | 65 | 33.9 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 2,101 | Questionable - wrist (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet | |
| Keyonte George | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 81 | 85 | 100 | 66.2 | 70.2 | 67 | 69 | 33.0 | 33.0 | 33.0 | 2,194 | |||
| Darryn Peterson | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 78 | 81 | 100 | 63.2 | 67.2 | 65 | 65 | 31.1 | 31.0 | 31.1 | 1,972 | |||
| Ace Bailey | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 80 | 84 | 100 | 65.7 | 69.7 | 66 | 69 | 30.6 | 28.0 | 29.3 | 1,933 | |||
| Brice Sensabaugh | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 78 | 81 | 100 | 63.2 | 67.2 | 65 | 65 | 23.1 | 19.0 | 21.0 | 1,323 | |||
| Jaxson Hayes | Q | med | 0 | 3 | 88 | 70 | 80 | 50 | 61.7 | 64.7 | 58 | 69 | 19.1 | 23.0 | 21.0 | 1,302 | Questionable - right shoulder soreness (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet | |
| Isaiah Collier | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 73 | 81 | 100 | 63.2 | 67.2 | 61 | 69 | 21.7 | 18.0 | 19.8 | 1,260 | |||
| Svi Mykhailiuk | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 62 | 75 | 100 | 58.8 | 62.8 | 52 | 69 | 17.8 | 18.0 | 17.9 | 1,052 | |||
| Josh Okogie | med | 0 | 3 | 88 | 59 | 74 | 100 | 57.8 | 60.8 | 49 | 69 | 19.5 | 15.0 | 17.2 | 1,001 | |||
| Kyle Filipowski | high | 0 | 3 | 54 | 70 | 62 | 0 | 47.9 | 50.9 | 58 | 42 | 20.9 | 13.0 | 17.0 | 681 | |||
| Josh Green | high | 0 | 2 | 54 | 56 | 55 | 0 | 42.4 | 44.4 | 46 | 42 | 14.4 | 15.0 | 14.7 | 338 | |||
| Mo Bamba | high | 0 | 1 | 24 | – | 24 | 100 | 19.8 | 20.8 | – | 19 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 143 | |||
| Tony Bradley | high | 0 | 1 | 24 | – | 24 | 0 | 18.8 | 19.8 | – | 19 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 122 | |||
| Blake Hinson | OUT | med | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | – | 0 | 11.4 | – | 11.4 | 0 | Out - left hamstring strain (Injury) - Est. Return 10/23 |
Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.
ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
| Keyonte George | Gallagher #63 | Classic third-year breakout, but this year came out of nowhere; usage will get squeezed more tho |
| Lauri Markkanen | Gallagher #31 | No more tanking for Utah and Lauri will have to shoot a ton of 3-pointers; bumped a bit for quotes |
| Darryn Peterson | Gallagher #91 | Talent off the charts but likely going to pull down FG% based on NCAA shot profile |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | Gallagher #41 | The Jazz really need him to be great at 3-pointers, which means he's likely not great in FG% |
| Ace Bailey | Gallagher #101 | Hardy trusted him because of defense only needs one injury to be hitting 30 minutes a night |
| Jusuf Nurkic | Depth chart | Foot issue will cause him to miss start of season, targeting mid-November for injury that will linger |
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Keyonte George
33.2 mpg × 66 g = 2,194
Isaiah Collier
19.9 mpg × 63 g = 1,260
SG
Darryn Peterson
31.2 mpg × 63 g = 1,972
Brice Sensabaugh
20.9 mpg × 63 g = 1,323
Josh Green
8.0 mpg × 42 g = 338
Trey Alexander 2W
5.0 mpg × 16 g = 79
SF
Lauri Markkanen
34.1 mpg × 62 g = 2,101
Svi Mykhailiuk
17.9 mpg × 59 g = 1,052
Josh Okogie
17.3 mpg × 58 g = 1,001
PF
Jaren Jackson Jr.
32.0 mpg × 61 g = 1,959
Ace Bailey
29.4 mpg × 66 g = 1,933
Blake Hinson 2W
nan mpg × 0 g = 0
C
Jaxson Hayes
21.1 mpg × 62 g = 1,302
Kyle Filipowski
14.2 mpg × 48 g = 681
Mo Bamba
7.3 mpg × 20 g = 143
Tony Bradley
6.5 mpg × 19 g = 122
Jusuf Nurkic IR
25.0 mpg × 45 g = 1,133
Not on ETR's depth chart: Kobe Bufkin, Harrison Ingram
Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
| Date | Opp (net that game) | Our net | Win % | Result | Our players out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | @ MEM -3.4 | 39% | L 103-123 | ||
| 2026-10-23 | vs NOP -4.6 | 58% | W 120-119 | ||
| 2026-10-25 | vs LAL +2.4 | 36% | L 123-132 | ||
| 2026-10-26 | vs MEM -3.4 | 54% | L 105-110 | ||
| 2026-10-28 | vs SAS +6.8 | -7.5 | 17% | Monster tonight Jusuf Nurkic; Jaren Jackson Jr. | |
| 2026-10-31 | vs POR +2.4 | -4.7 | 35% | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| 2026-11-02 | @ SAS +5.9 | -4.7 | 15% | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| 2026-11-04 | @ NOP -4.7 | -4.7 | 43% | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| 2026-11-06 | @ DAL -4.9 | -4.7 | 43% | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| 2026-11-08 | @ MIN +2.8 | -4.7 | 22% | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| 2026-11-10 | vs MIA +0.5 | -4.7 | 41% | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| 2026-11-11 | vs ORL -0.2 | -4.4 | 44% | ||
| 2026-11-13 | @ HOU +5.3 | -4.4 | 17% | ||
| 2026-11-15 | vs SAS +5.9 | -4.4 | 26% | ||
| 2026-11-17 | @ LAC -3.9 | -4.4 | 41% | ||
| 2026-11-18 | @ LAL +2.3 | -4.4 | 24% | ||
| 2026-11-20 | vs PHX -0.8 | -4.4 | 46% | ||
| 2026-11-22 | vs DAL -4.3 | -4.4 | 57% | ||
| 2026-11-23 | @ LAL +2.3 | -4.4 | 24% | ||
| 2026-11-27 | vs DEN +3.4 | -4.4 | 33% | ||
| 2026-11-29 | vs PHX -0.8 | -4.4 | 46% | ||
| 2026-12-01 | @ GSW -0.3 | -4.4 | 30% | ||
| 2026-12-03 | @ POR +2.4 | -4.4 | 23% | ||
| 2026-12-12 | vs DEN +3.4 | -4.4 | 33% | ||
| 2026-12-14 | vs MIN +2.8 | -4.4 | 35% | ||
| 2026-12-16 | @ CHI -5.2 | -4.4 | 45% | ||
| 2026-12-18 | @ BOS +6.3 | -4.4 | 15% | ||
| 2026-12-20 | @ CLE +2.3 | -4.4 | 24% | ||
| 2026-12-23 | @ NYK +5.0 | -4.4 | 17% | ||
| 2026-12-26 | vs IND -0.0 | -4.4 | 43% | ||
| 2026-12-27 | @ SAC -8.4 | -4.4 | 55% | ||
| 2026-12-30 | vs NYK +5.0 | -4.4 | 28% | ||
| 2027-01-01 | vs BOS +6.3 | -4.4 | 25% | ||
| 2027-01-02 | @ OKC +4.7 | -4.4 | 18% | ||
| 2027-01-04 | vs BKN -5.7 | -4.4 | 61% | ||
| 2027-01-06 | @ BKN -5.7 | -4.4 | 47% | ||
| 2027-01-08 | @ TOR +2.8 | -4.4 | 22% | ||
| 2027-01-10 | @ DET +3.8 | -4.4 | 20% | ||
| 2027-01-12 | vs CHI -5.2 | -4.4 | 60% | ||
| 2027-01-14 | vs CHA -0.2 | -4.4 | 44% | ||
| 2027-01-15 | @ OKC +4.7 | -4.4 | 18% | ||
| 2027-01-17 | vs SAC -8.4 | -4.4 | 69% | ||
| 2027-01-19 | @ DEN +3.4 | -4.4 | 21% | ||
| 2027-01-20 | vs LAC -3.2 | -4.4 | 54% | ||
| 2027-01-22 | @ PHX -0.8 | -4.4 | 32% | ||
| 2027-01-24 | @ PHX -0.8 | -4.4 | 32% | ||
| 2027-01-26 | vs MIL -6.5 | -4.4 | 64% | ||
| 2027-01-28 | vs GSW -0.2 | -4.4 | 44% | ||
| 2027-01-30 | vs MEM -3.4 | -4.4 | 54% | ||
| 2027-02-01 | vs CLE +2.3 | -4.4 | 36% | ||
| 2027-02-03 | @ HOU +5.3 | -4.4 | 17% | ||
| 2027-02-06 | @ DAL -4.3 | -4.4 | 42% | ||
| 2027-02-07 | @ MIN +2.8 | -4.4 | 22% | ||
| 2027-02-09 | vs HOU +5.3 | -4.4 | 28% | ||
| 2027-02-11 | @ IND +0.1 | -4.4 | 29% | ||
| 2027-02-15 | vs DET +3.8 | -4.4 | 32% | ||
| 2027-02-17 | @ DEN +3.4 | -4.4 | 21% | ||
| 2027-02-25 | @ LAC -3.0 | -4.4 | 38% | ||
| 2027-02-27 | vs WAS -5.1 | -4.4 | 59% | ||
| 2027-03-01 | @ NOP -4.6 | -4.4 | 43% | ||
| 2027-03-03 | @ MIL -6.5 | -4.4 | 49% | ||
| 2027-03-05 | @ ORL +1.0 | -4.4 | 27% | ||
| 2027-03-06 | @ WAS -5.1 | -4.4 | 45% | ||
| 2027-03-08 | @ PHI +2.5 | -4.4 | 23% | ||
| 2027-03-10 | vs HOU +5.3 | -4.4 | 28% | ||
| 2027-03-12 | vs SAC -8.4 | -4.4 | 69% | ||
| 2027-03-17 | vs ATL +0.8 | -4.4 | 41% | ||
| 2027-03-18 | vs MIN +2.8 | -4.4 | 35% | ||
| 2027-03-21 | vs TOR +2.8 | -4.4 | 35% | ||
| 2027-03-23 | vs PHI +2.5 | -4.4 | 36% | ||
| 2027-03-25 | @ MIA +0.5 | -4.4 | 28% | ||
| 2027-03-27 | @ ATL +0.8 | -4.4 | 27% | ||
| 2027-03-28 | @ CHA -0.2 | -4.4 | 30% | ||
| 2027-03-30 | vs OKC +4.7 | -4.4 | 29% | ||
| 2027-04-02 | @ POR +2.8 | -4.4 | 22% | ||
| 2027-04-04 | vs POR +2.8 | -4.4 | 35% | ||
| 2027-04-06 | vs OKC +5.0 | -4.4 | 28% | ||
| 2027-04-08 | vs NOP -4.6 | -4.4 | 58% | ||
| 2027-04-09 | vs LAC -3.0 | -4.4 | 53% | ||
| 2027-04-11 | @ GSW +1.2 | -4.4 | 26% |
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)
Bottom line: Will Hardy said he'd slow it down, and he did: the Jazz were bottom-three in halfcourt rate and transition. Lauri is the 1A, Darryn Peterson is high-usage and mid-range-heavy, and Nurkic's foot injury opens small-ball minutes for Ace Bailey.
Usage & ball-handling
- Lauri Markkanen: the 1A, as promised at Media Day. He scored 17 in 14 minutes, played 19 first-half minutes later, and will carry a huge load.
- Keyonte George: primary handler, comfortable with the starters. ETR expects him to lose some usage.
- Darryn Peterson: off the ball in game one (five shots in 19 minutes). Without Lauri he had 28% usage and went 10-of-18, and he leads the NBA in share of points from the mid-range, a bad sign for his FG%.
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: shots near the basket and more paint attacks, but he got clamped by Gordon (12.5% usage) and had foul trouble (five fouls).
- Ace Bailey: active hands (four steals), better conditioning. ETR expects him to be more efficient.
Minutes & rotation
- Starters: George, Peterson, Markkanen, Jackson Jr., Jaxson Hayes. Jusuf Nurkic is out at least four weeks with a plantar fascia tear, and ETR doubts six weeks is enough.
- Nine-man rotation. Ace is the first sub and the biggest winner of the Nurkic injury.
- Svi Mykhailiuk is a defensive piece who keeps getting minutes (10.8 first-half minutes once, 13.5 in the finale, when Hayes also played 13.5).
- Isaiah Collier gets the non-George minutes.
- Brice Sensabaugh came back (6 first-half minutes behind Lauri, then started the second half) but isn't a lock. ETR fades Kyle Filipowski as a poor rim protector. Josh Green missed early games.
Who plays together
- Small ball is real. There were about three minutes of center-less lineups in the opener, and the closing five vs SAS was George, Peterson, Bailey, Markkanen, Jackson Jr.
- Mykhailiuk subs for Peterson or George, and Collier subs for Peterson.
- Peterson guarded Jokic at times in small lineups.
Pace & shot selection
- 87.7% of possessions in the halfcourt (28th), 27th in pace, and the third-lowest transition frequency. Hardy said he wanted it slower and followed through.
- Defense allows the lowest rim frequency but the highest mid-range frequency. Point-of-attack defense is poor and the zone was a disaster vs DEN.
- ETR: not a fantasy-friendly environment.
Player by player
| Player | Model GP | Model MPG | Model min | Preseason read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauri Markkanen | 62 | 34.1 | 2,101 | The 1A scorer, heavy minutes. |
| Keyonte George | 66 | 33.2 | 2,194 | Primary handler, slight usage drop expected. |
| Darryn Peterson | 63 | 31.2 | 1,972 | Rookie starter. Mid-range heavy and inefficient. |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | 61 | 32.0 | 1,959 | Starter. Attacking the paint more, foul-prone. |
| Ace Bailey | 66 | 29.4 | 1,933 | First sub and small-ball four. Winner of the Nurkic injury. |
| Jaxson Hayes | 62 | 21.1 | 1,302 | Starting C by default, lob threat. |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 59 | 17.9 | 1,052 | Defensive wing who isn't going away. |
| Isaiah Collier | 63 | 19.9 | 1,260 | Backup PG. |
| Jusuf Nurkic | 45 | 25.0 | 1,133 | Plantar fascia tear, likely out longer than four weeks. |
| Kyle Filipowski | 48 | 14.2 | 681 | Out of favor (rim protection). |
Preseason starting lineups
| Game | Opp | Starters | Out (ETR's noteworthy inactives) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | DEN | Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson, Ace Bailey, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jaxson Hayes | Lauri Markkanen, Kyle Filipowski, Brice Sensabaugh, Jusuf Nurkic |
| Oct 12 | SAS | Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson, Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jaxson Hayes | Kyle Filipowski |
Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.