IND Pacers #18 of 30
Projected wins
40.3
FanDuel 42.5 (o-115 / u-110) · record 2-2
Net rating
-0.05
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off +1.88 · def -1.03
Next game / full strength
-2.92 / +0.04
2026-10-28 vs PHI (Monster daily minutes) · out: T.J. McConnell; Ben Sheppard; Tyrese Haliburton; Ivica Zubac
DARKO vs market
-0.49 / +0.39
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 39.4 / 41.2
Minutes covered
18,717
of 18,720 remaining · fill 2 @ replacement
Roster
17
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
-0.06
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
85% ETR
7% MPG from ETR FPPG · 7% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
105 pts
36 reb · 26 ast · 11.3 3pm · 85% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
| Player | ETR slot | Pos | Age | GP | MPG | Min | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TO | FG% z | FT% z | FPPG | 9-cat rk | Share % | DPM | Mkt | Rating | O | D | O ctb | D ctb | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | PF1 | F | 32 | 63 | 33.4 | 2,109 | 22.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | +0.49 | -0.60 | 37.6 | 76 | 11.3 | +1.56 | +2.29 | +1.92 | +1.93 | -0.37 | +1.09 | -0.21 | +1.08 |
| Tyrese Haliburton | PG1 | G | 26 | 60 | 33.4 | 2,009 | 20.3 | 3.6 | 10.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | -0.36 | +0.70 | 43.4 | 6 | 10.7 | +2.75 | +3.82 | +3.29 | +2.62 | +0.14 | +1.40 | +0.08 | +1.76 |
| Andrew NembhardQ | SG1 | G | 26 | 64 | 31.2 | 1,988 | 12.3 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -0.32 | +0.18 | 25.3 | 174 | 10.6 | -0.58 | +0.03 | -0.27 | +0.53 | -1.11 | +0.28 | -0.59 | -0.15 |
| Ivica ZubacINJ 4g · back 11-04 | C1 | C | 29 | 64 | 31.0 | 1,988 | 15.6 | 10.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.8 | +1.85 | -0.54 | 35.0 | 77 | 10.6 | +1.22 | +1.21 | +1.22 | +0.20 | +1.02 | +0.11 | +0.54 | +0.65 |
| Aaron Nesmith | SF1 | G | 27 | 60 | 27.6 | 1,662 | 13.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | -0.24 | +0.23 | 23.6 | 153 | 8.9 | +0.01 | -0.27 | -0.13 | +0.40 | -0.40 | +0.18 | -0.18 | -0.06 |
| Kelly Oubre | SG2 | G | 30 | 62 | 24.6 | 1,528 | 13.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | -0.42 | -0.08 | 25.1 | 151 | 8.2 | -0.58 | +0.57 | -0.00 | -0.14 | -0.44 | -0.06 | -0.18 | -0.00 |
| Obi Toppin | PF2 | F | 28 | 67 | 21.6 | 1,447 | 11.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | +0.41 | +0.06 | 21.0 | 186 | 7.7 | +0.57 | +1.73 | +1.15 | +1.41 | -0.83 | +0.54 | -0.32 | +0.45 |
| Jarace Walker | SF2 | F | 23 | 66 | 19.3 | 1,264 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | -0.30 | -0.12 | 20.5 | 242 | 6.8 | -2.44 | -3.46 | -2.95 | -1.55 | -0.89 | -0.53 | -0.30 | -1.00 |
| Quenton Jacksonmpg from ETR FPPG | PG3 | G | 28 | 58 | 19.9 | 1,150 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15.6 | – | 6.1 | -0.43 | -3.00 | -1.71 | -0.24 | -0.19 | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.53 |
| T.J. McConnellINJ 4g · back 11-04 | PG2 | G | 34 | 64 | 16.0 | 1,019 | 9.9 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.4 | +0.48 | +0.03 | 22.4 | 207 | 5.4 | -0.75 | -0.22 | -0.48 | -0.12 | -0.62 | -0.03 | -0.17 | -0.13 |
| Jay Huff | C3 | C | 29 | 59 | 15.4 | 914 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | +0.01 | +0.05 | 18.1 | 226 | 4.9 | -0.31 | -2.90 | -1.61 | -0.75 | +0.43 | -0.18 | +0.11 | -0.39 |
| Jalen SlawsonETR depth fill | SF3 | F | 27 | 44 | 11.5 | 511 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.7 | +0.10 | -4.03 | -1.97 | -1.68 | +1.78 | -0.23 | +0.24 | -0.27 |
| Larry Nance Jr.ETR depth fill | C2 | F | 33 | 42 | 11.1 | 471 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.5 | -2.58 | +1.24 | -0.67 | -3.61 | +1.03 | -0.45 | +0.13 | -0.08 |
| Ben SheppardINJ 58g · back 03-04mpg from ETR FPPG | SG3 | G | 25 | 12 | 16.0 | 200 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 12.1 | – | 1.1 | -1.62 | -1.70 | -1.66 | -1.08 | -0.54 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.09 |
| Braden SmithETR depth fill | SG4 | G | 23 | 21 | 9.6 | 199 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.1 | -2.30 | -1.78 | -2.04 | -1.12 | -1.18 | -0.06 | -0.07 | -0.11 |
| Kobe BrownETR depth fill | PF3 | G | 26 | 21 | 8.8 | 182 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.0 | -1.40 | -5.46 | -3.43 | -0.53 | -0.87 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.17 |
| Johnny FurphyINJ 45g · back 02-01 | G | 21 | 14 | 5.5 | 77 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -0.72 | +0.12 | -0.30 | -1.49 | +0.77 | -0.03 | +0.02 | -0.01 | |
| Team | 18,718 | 105.4 | 35.9 | 26.1 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 100 | +0.83 | +1.07 | +1.87 | -1.04 | +0.97 |
PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 2 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.
Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
| Player | Inj | Risk | Out until | Games out | Played | Mon % | ETR % | Avail % | Next % | Exp GP | Season G | ETR G | Mon G | ETR MPG | Mon MPG | Role MPG | Exp min | Monster note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Sheppard | INJ 58g | high | 2027-03-04 | 58 | 1 | 65 | 60 | 62 | 0 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 49 | 13 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 200 | Injured - torn left meniscus (Injury) - Est. Return 03/04 |
| Johnny Furphy | INJ 45g | high | 2027-02-01 | 45 | 0 | 42 | – | 42 | 0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | – | 14 | – | 11.0 | 11.0 | 77 | Injured - torn acl (Injury) - Est. Return 02/01 |
| Ivica Zubac | INJ 4g | med | 2026-11-04 | 4 | 3 | 89 | 84 | 87 | 0 | 64.1 | 67.1 | 69 | 66 | 30.3 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 1,988 | Injured - ankle sprain (Injury) - Est. Return 11/04 |
| T.J. McConnell | INJ 4g | med | 2026-11-04 | 4 | 0 | 89 | 83 | 86 | 0 | 63.7 | 63.7 | 68 | 66 | 18.3 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 1,019 | Injured - right hamstring strain (Injury) - Est. Return 11/04 |
| Tyrese Haliburton | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 73 | 78 | 0 | 60.2 | 64.2 | 61 | 65 | 33.2 | 33.0 | 33.1 | 2,009 | |||
| Pascal Siakam | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 78 | 81 | 100 | 63.2 | 67.2 | 65 | 65 | 33.0 | 33.0 | 33.0 | 2,109 | |||
| Andrew Nembhard | Q | high | 0 | 3 | 83 | 81 | 82 | 50 | 63.7 | 66.7 | 66 | 65 | 29.9 | 32.0 | 30.9 | 1,988 | Questionable - neck stiffness / soreness (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet | |
| Aaron Nesmith | med | 0 | 3 | 88 | 65 | 77 | 90 | 60.1 | 63.1 | 54 | 69 | 28.7 | 26.0 | 27.4 | 1,662 | |||
| Kelly Oubre | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 70 | 80 | 100 | 62.2 | 66.2 | 59 | 69 | 27.6 | 21.0 | 24.3 | 1,528 | |||
| Obi Toppin | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 83 | 86 | 90 | 67.0 | 71.0 | 69 | 69 | 20.7 | 22.0 | 21.4 | 1,447 | |||
| Quenton Jackson | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 59 | 74 | 100 | 57.8 | 61.8 | 50 | 69 | 19.3 | 20.0 | 19.7 | 1,150 | |||
| Jarace Walker | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 80 | 84 | 100 | 65.7 | 69.7 | 66 | 69 | 22.1 | 16.0 | 19.0 | 1,264 | |||
| Jay Huff | med | 0 | 3 | 88 | 63 | 76 | 100 | 59.2 | 62.2 | 52 | 69 | 16.9 | 15.0 | 15.9 | 914 | |||
| Jalen Slawson | med | 0 | 3 | 56 | – | 56 | 90 | 44.3 | 47.3 | – | 44 | 12.1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 511 | |||
| Larry Nance Jr. | high | 0 | 4 | 54 | – | 54 | 100 | 42.5 | 46.5 | – | 42 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 471 | |||
| Braden Smith | med | 0 | 0 | 27 | – | 27 | 0 | 20.7 | 20.7 | – | 21 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 199 | |||
| Kobe Brown | med | 0 | 1 | 27 | – | 27 | 0 | 20.7 | 21.7 | – | 21 | 12.1 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 182 |
Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.
ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
| Pascal Siakam | Gallagher #64 | 52/39/73 with Haliburton two years ago and has been healthy lately besides the tanking last year |
| Tyrese Haliburton | Gallagher #7 | Will be 16 months removed from Achilles tear and may not have much restrictions on him early |
| Andrew Nembhard | Gallagher #135 | Carlisle may need him to play more on a team that's not too deep at guard |
| Ivica Zubac | Gallagher #46 | Should feast with Haliburton and has awful competition behind him |
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Tyrese Haliburton
33.4 mpg × 60 g = 2,009
T.J. McConnell
16.0 mpg × 64 g = 1,019
Quenton Jackson
19.9 mpg × 58 g = 1,150
SG
Andrew Nembhard
31.2 mpg × 64 g = 1,988
Kelly Oubre
24.6 mpg × 62 g = 1,528
Ben Sheppard
16.0 mpg × 12 g = 200
Braden Smith 2W
9.6 mpg × 21 g = 199
SF
Aaron Nesmith
27.6 mpg × 60 g = 1,662
Jarace Walker
19.3 mpg × 66 g = 1,264
Jalen Slawson 2W
11.5 mpg × 44 g = 511
PF
Pascal Siakam
33.4 mpg × 63 g = 2,109
Obi Toppin
21.6 mpg × 67 g = 1,447
Kobe Brown 2W
8.8 mpg × 21 g = 182
C
Ivica Zubac
31.0 mpg × 64 g = 1,988
Larry Nance Jr.
11.1 mpg × 42 g = 471
Jay Huff
15.4 mpg × 59 g = 914
Not on ETR's depth chart: Johnny Furphy
Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
| Date | Opp (net that game) | Our net | Win % | Result | Our players out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | @ NOP -4.6 | 57% | W 123-120 | ||
| 2026-10-23 | vs DAL -4.4 | 70% | L 105-121 | ||
| 2026-10-25 | @ BKN -5.7 | 60% | W 136-109 | ||
| 2026-10-26 | @ MIL -6.4 | 63% | L 102-110 | ||
| 2026-10-28 | vs PHI +5.9 | -2.9 | 30% | Monster tonight T.J. McConnell; Ben Sheppard; Tyrese Haliburton; Ivica Zubac | |
| 2026-10-30 | @ MIA +0.5 | -0.5 | 40% | T.J. McConnell; Ben Sheppard; Ivica Zubac | |
| 2026-11-01 | vs BKN -5.7 | -0.5 | 72% | T.J. McConnell; Ben Sheppard; Ivica Zubac | |
| 2026-11-02 | vs ATL +0.8 | -0.5 | 53% | T.J. McConnell; Ben Sheppard; Ivica Zubac | |
| 2026-11-04 | @ MEM -3.4 | -0.0 | 53% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-11-07 | vs DEN +3.4 | -0.0 | 46% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-11-09 | @ DAL -4.6 | -0.0 | 57% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-11-11 | vs WAS -5.1 | -0.0 | 72% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-11-13 | vs NYK +5.0 | -0.0 | 41% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-11-15 | @ PHI +2.5 | -0.0 | 35% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-11-18 | vs HOU +5.3 | -0.0 | 40% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-11-20 | @ CLE +2.3 | -0.0 | 36% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-11-22 | @ NYK +5.0 | -0.0 | 28% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-11-23 | vs OKC +4.7 | -0.0 | 42% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-11-27 | vs PHI +2.5 | -0.0 | 49% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-11-28 | @ CHI -5.2 | -0.0 | 59% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-12-01 | @ CLE +2.3 | -0.0 | 36% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-12-03 | @ ATL +0.8 | -0.0 | 40% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-12-13 | vs DET +3.8 | -0.0 | 45% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-12-16 | vs GSW -0.3 | -0.0 | 58% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-12-17 | vs POR +2.4 | -0.0 | 50% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-12-20 | @ LAC -3.2 | -0.0 | 53% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-12-21 | @ LAL +2.3 | -0.0 | 35% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-12-23 | @ PHX -0.8 | -0.0 | 45% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-12-26 | @ UTA -4.4 | -0.0 | 57% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-12-27 | @ DEN +3.4 | -0.0 | 32% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-12-29 | vs LAC -3.2 | -0.0 | 67% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2026-12-31 | vs ORL +1.0 | -0.0 | 54% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-01-02 | vs MIN +2.8 | -0.0 | 48% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-01-04 | vs CHI -5.2 | -0.0 | 72% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-01-06 | @ SAS +5.9 | -0.0 | 26% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-01-07 | @ ATL +0.8 | -0.0 | 40% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-01-09 | vs MIL -6.5 | -0.0 | 76% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-01-11 | vs BKN -5.7 | -0.0 | 74% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-01-13 | vs MIL -6.5 | -0.0 | 76% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-01-15 | vs PHX -0.8 | -0.0 | 60% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-01-17 | @ WAS -5.1 | -0.0 | 59% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-01-19 | @ PHI +2.5 | -0.0 | 35% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-01-20 | @ BOS +6.3 | -0.0 | 24% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-01-22 | @ DET +3.8 | -0.0 | 31% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-01-26 | vs CHI -5.2 | -0.0 | 72% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-01-28 | vs LAL +2.3 | -0.0 | 50% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-01-30 | vs WAS -5.1 | -0.0 | 72% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-02-01 | vs MIA +0.5 | +0.1 | 56% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-02-03 | vs ATL +0.8 | +0.1 | 55% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-02-05 | @ OKC +4.7 | +0.1 | 29% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-02-08 | vs NOP -4.6 | +0.1 | 71% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-02-10 | vs CLE +2.3 | +0.1 | 50% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-02-11 | vs UTA -4.4 | +0.1 | 71% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-02-13 | vs SAC -8.4 | +0.1 | 81% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-02-15 | @ GSW +1.2 | +0.1 | 39% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-02-17 | @ SAC -8.4 | +0.1 | 69% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-02-18 | @ POR +2.4 | +0.1 | 36% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-02-26 | @ MIN +2.8 | +0.1 | 34% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-02-28 | vs TOR +2.8 | +0.1 | 49% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-03-02 | vs BOS +6.3 | +0.1 | 38% | Ben Sheppard | |
| 2027-03-04 | @ ORL +1.0 | +0.0 | 40% | ||
| 2027-03-06 | @ MIA +0.5 | +0.0 | 41% | ||
| 2027-03-08 | vs CHA -0.2 | +0.0 | 58% | ||
| 2027-03-11 | @ CHA -0.2 | +0.0 | 43% | ||
| 2027-03-13 | @ HOU +5.3 | +0.0 | 27% | ||
| 2027-03-15 | @ BKN -5.7 | +0.0 | 61% | ||
| 2027-03-16 | vs DET +3.8 | +0.0 | 45% | ||
| 2027-03-18 | vs TOR +2.8 | +0.0 | 48% | ||
| 2027-03-20 | @ MIL -6.5 | +0.0 | 63% | ||
| 2027-03-22 | @ ORL +1.0 | +0.0 | 40% | ||
| 2027-03-24 | vs MEM -3.4 | +0.0 | 68% | ||
| 2027-03-25 | vs SAS +5.9 | +0.0 | 39% | ||
| 2027-03-29 | @ CHI -5.2 | +0.0 | 59% | ||
| 2027-03-30 | vs BOS +6.3 | +0.0 | 38% | ||
| 2027-04-01 | vs ORL +1.0 | +0.0 | 54% | ||
| 2027-04-04 | @ TOR +2.8 | +0.0 | 34% | ||
| 2027-04-06 | @ CHA -0.2 | +0.0 | 43% | ||
| 2027-04-07 | @ DET +3.8 | +0.0 | 31% | ||
| 2027-04-09 | vs CLE +2.3 | +0.0 | 50% | ||
| 2027-04-11 | @ NYK +5.0 | +0.0 | 28% |
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)
Bottom line: Carlisle has no faith in his backup centers, so Zubac plays big minutes tethered to Haliburton, and the Pacers will mostly go small with Obi Toppin at center behind him.
Usage & ball-handling
- Tyrese Haliburton: 24/3/3 in a first half vs OKC on the floor where he tore his Achilles, with precision passing and a faster pace. ETR expects his usage to build.
- Ivica Zubac: a short-roll hub (13/13/5 and three steals in 18 first-half minutes). Carlisle called his screening "a major plus."
- Pascal Siakam: a team-high 19.5 first-half minutes in the opener.
- Aaron Nesmith: 19 first-half points as a catch-and-shoot weapon.
- Jarace Walker: six assists in nine minutes, but there isn't enough of a role for him.
Minutes & rotation
- Starters: Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Nesmith, Siakam, Zubac (Ben Sheppard or Kelly Oubre Jr. filled in).
- Finale: Carlisle ran only eight in the first half, with Haliburton, Nembhard and Zubac at 20 first-half minutes each and only Sheppard, Toppin and Kobe Brown off the bench.
- Rotation runs 9–10 when healthy: Oubre, Walker, Sheppard, Toppin, with T.J. McConnell in Sheppard's spot.
- C2: Larry Nance Jr. got looks when others were out. Jay Huff is buried. Carlisle said they "didn't even really have a starting center" last year.
Who plays together
- Haliburton and Zubac are tethered. Carlisle subs wings around them to keep the 1-5 pick-and-roll together.
- Lots of Toppin-Siakam frontcourts with no center.
- Carlisle keeps his starters together for long stretches.
Pace & shot selection
- Haliburton pushing the pace again. The half-court offense is built on Zubac screens and DHOs.
Player by player
| Player | Model GP | Model MPG | Model min | Preseason read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Haliburton | 60 | 33.4 | 2,009 | Back from the Achilles injury and sharp. Usage still building. |
| Ivica Zubac | 64 | 31.0 | 1,988 | The only real C. Heavy minutes, playmaking from the short roll. |
| Pascal Siakam | 63 | 33.4 | 2,109 | Big minutes. Plays the 5 in small lineups with Toppin. |
| Andrew Nembhard | 64 | 31.2 | 1,988 | Starter, 20 first-half minutes in the finale. |
| Aaron Nesmith | 60 | 27.6 | 1,662 | Starting wing, catch-and-shoot. |
| Obi Toppin | 67 | 21.6 | 1,447 | Backup big in small lineups. |
| Ben Sheppard | 12 | 16.0 | 200 | Bench wing. Started when Nesmith or Nembhard sat. |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 62 | 24.6 | 1,528 | Bench wing, not much impact. |
| Jarace Walker | 66 | 19.3 | 1,264 | In the rotation but light minutes. |
| Jay Huff | 59 | 15.4 | 914 | Buried. |
Preseason starting lineups
| Game | Opp | Starters | Out (ETR's noteworthy inactives) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | MIN | Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac | T.J. McConnell |
| Oct 10 | ATL | Andrew Nembhard, Kelly Oubre Jr., Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac | Tyrese Haliburton |
| Oct 13 | OKC | Tyrese Haliburton, Ben Sheppard, Kelly Oubre Jr., Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac | TJ McConnell, Aaron Nesmith, Jarace Walker, Andrew Nembhard |
Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.