NBA 2026-27 Wins Model

built 2026-10-28 15:40 · darko 2026-10-28 15:40 · rosters 2026-10-28 15:40 · schedule 2026-10-28 15:40 · build 2026-10-28 15:40 · etr 2026-10-28 15:40 · monster_ros 2026-10-28 15:40 · fanduel 2026-10-28 15:40 · sim 2026-10-28 15:40

WAS Wizards #24 of 30

Projected wins
28.7
FanDuel 34.5 (o+115 / u-145) · record 2-2
Net rating
-5.06
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off -1.25 · def -2.75
Next game / full strength
-3.65 / -5.07
2026-10-28 @ CLE (Monster daily minutes) · out: Justin Champagnie
DARKO vs market
-5.34 / -4.78
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 28.3 / 29.2
Minutes covered
18,720
of 18,720 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
17
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
+0.20
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
87% ETR
9% MPG from ETR FPPG · 3% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
106 pts
41 reb · 24 ast · 9.6 3pm · 87% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
PlayerETR slotPosAgeGPMPGMinPTSREBASTSTLBLK3PMTOFG% zFT% zFPPG9-cat rkShare %DPMMktRatingODO ctbD ctbContrib
Trae YoungPG1G286634.72,28021.93.010.11.10.22.43.8-1.08+1.6940.84012.2+1.27+1.85+1.56+3.19-1.92+1.95-1.17+0.95
AJ DybantsaQSF1F196931.12,14619.86.33.21.00.41.22.0+0.35+0.0834.38711.5-0.93–-0.93-0.42-0.50-0.24-0.29-0.53
Kyshawn GeorgeSG1F226229.91,86013.35.03.21.10.82.12.1-0.62+0.1327.71209.9-1.54-1.44-1.49-1.13-0.41-0.56-0.20-0.74
Alex SarrPF1C216228.41,76815.27.42.80.81.91.31.6-0.29-0.5534.5649.4-1.71+0.36-0.67-1.15-0.56-0.54-0.26-0.32
Anthony DavisC1F335332.61,73721.211.02.81.21.90.61.8+1.05-0.0345.8179.3+1.65+3.46+2.56+0.21+1.44+0.10+0.67+1.19
Tre JohnsonPG2G206424.31,54613.03.12.10.70.32.11.6-0.69+0.3621.32368.3-2.70-0.83-1.77-0.85-1.85-0.35-0.77-0.73
Bilal CoulibalySF2G226124.81,5169.84.22.21.20.81.01.4-0.43-0.1922.91818.1-1.50-2.75-2.12-0.99-0.51-0.40-0.20-0.86
Deandre AytonC2C286221.61,33410.27.21.00.60.80.11.0+1.01-0.3623.51997.1+0.57-1.90-0.66-0.58+1.15-0.20+0.41-0.24
Justin ChampagnieQPF2F256019.11,1416.65.01.00.80.60.80.8+0.01-0.0117.52566.1+0.93-3.59-1.33+0.76+0.17+0.23+0.05-0.41
Bub Carringtonmpg from ETR FPPGPG3G216417.91,138–––––––––13.9–6.1-3.35-3.67-3.51-1.49-1.86-0.45-0.57-1.07
Khris MiddletonSG2F355519.01,0419.83.32.60.70.21.11.5-0.36+0.4018.82765.6-1.99-0.75-1.37-1.43-0.56-0.40-0.16-0.38
Will Rileympg from ETR FPPGSF3G204911.0541–––––––––15.4–2.9-2.35-3.58-2.97-0.89-1.46-0.13-0.21-0.43
Tre MannETR depth fillPG4G25416.5270–––––––––––1.4-2.50-4.34-3.42-1.86-0.64-0.13-0.05-0.25
Tristan VukcevicINJ 5g · back 11-07ETR depth fillC3F23395.5214–––––––––––1.1+0.40-3.78-1.69+0.25+0.16+0.01+0.01-0.10
Felix OkparaETR depth fillPF3F22164.978–––––––––––0.4-3.46-1.35-2.41-3.08-0.39-0.06-0.01-0.05
Anthony GillF34163.555–––––––––––0.3-1.74-3.24-2.49-1.55-0.19-0.02-0.00-0.04
Reece BeekmanG25163.555–––––––––––0.3-2.27-4.38-3.33-2.32+0.05-0.03+0.00-0.05
Team18,720106.241.123.76.85.79.613.3100-4.00-4.07-1.24-2.76-4.04

PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.

Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
PlayerInjRiskOut untilGames outPlayedMon %ETR %Avail %Next %Exp GPSeason GETR GMon GETR MPGMon MPGRole MPGExp minMonster note
Tristan VukcevicINJ 5ghigh2026-11-075053–53039.039.0–3912.011.011.0214Injured - hip impingement (Injury) - Est. Return 11/07
Trae Youngmed0488808410065.769.7666934.435.034.72,280
Anthony Davisextreme0476606810053.357.3515932.133.032.61,737
AJ DybantsaQmed0088888810069.169.1696931.231.031.12,146Questionable - left ankle sprain (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet
Kyshawn Georgehigh0483768010062.266.2636529.830.029.91,860
Alex Sarrhigh0483768010062.266.2636529.028.028.51,768
Bilal Coulibalyhigh0483737810061.265.2616526.623.024.81,516
Tre Johnsonmed0488748110063.767.7626926.622.024.31,546
Deandre Aytonmed0488697910061.765.7586923.420.021.71,334
Justin ChampagnieQmed04886778059.763.7566919.219.019.11,141Questionable - foot injury (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet
Khris Middletonhigh0380607010054.857.8506222.216.019.11,041
Bub Carringtonlow0494698110063.767.7587317.718.017.91,138
Will Rileymed03567264049.452.4594419.216.017.6541
Tre Mannhigh0154–54041.542.5–4212.014.013.0270

Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.

ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
Trae YoungGallagher #25Wizards very short on handling and Trae one year removed B2B 36 MPG seasons
AJ DybantsaGallagher #83Athletic freak that should shoot it well with rim finishing; has more usage competition than Caleb and Boozer
Kyshawn GeorgeGallagher #128Likely will start out slow while the team is healthy but his profile tends to get even better in third year
Alex SarrGallagher #76Shot profile improved drastically, but AD in the way a bit to throw that off; may need AD trade/injury to pay off
Anthony DavisGallagher #17Ugly last two years on injuries and will be 34 in March; stellar efficiency might come back next to Trae
Tre JohnsonGallagher #149Should get plenty of 3-pointers in the second unit and has a path to 25 minutes when team is healthy
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Trae Young
34.7 mpg × 66 g = 2,280
Tre Johnson
24.3 mpg × 64 g = 1,546
Bub Carrington
17.9 mpg × 64 g = 1,138
Tre Mann
6.5 mpg × 41 g = 270
SG
Kyshawn George
29.9 mpg × 62 g = 1,860
Khris Middleton
19.0 mpg × 55 g = 1,041
SF
AJ Dybantsa
31.1 mpg × 69 g = 2,146
Bilal Coulibaly
24.8 mpg × 61 g = 1,516
Will Riley
11.0 mpg × 49 g = 541
PF
Alex Sarr
28.4 mpg × 62 g = 1,768
Justin Champagnie
19.1 mpg × 60 g = 1,141
Felix Okpara 2W
4.9 mpg × 16 g = 78
C
Anthony Davis
32.6 mpg × 53 g = 1,737
Deandre Ayton
21.6 mpg × 62 g = 1,334
Tristan Vukcevic
5.5 mpg × 39 g = 214

Not on ETR's depth chart: Anthony Gill, Reece Beekman

Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
DateOpp (net that game)Our netWin %ResultOur players out
2026-10-21vs MIL -6.462%W 128-116
2026-10-23vs TOR +2.534%L 102-112
2026-10-24@ CHI -5.143%W 124-120
2026-10-26@ CHA -0.329%L 103-110
2026-10-28@ CLE +4.8-3.719%Monster tonight Justin Champagnie
2026-10-30vs CHA -3.6-5.252%
2026-11-02@ ORL -0.5-5.229%
2026-11-04vs ATL +0.8-5.238%
2026-11-06@ ATL +0.8-5.225%
2026-11-07@ OKC +4.7-5.117%
2026-11-09@ DET +3.8-5.119%
2026-11-11@ IND -0.0-5.128%
2026-11-12vs DET +3.8-5.130%
2026-11-15vs HOU +5.3-5.126%
2026-11-16vs MEM -3.4-5.152%
2026-11-18@ TOR +2.8-5.121%
2026-11-20@ CHI -5.2-5.143%
2026-11-22vs ORL -0.2-5.142%
2026-11-24vs BOS +6.3-5.123%
2026-11-28vs ORL -0.2-5.142%
2026-11-30@ CHA -0.2-5.128%
2026-12-03@ MIA +0.5-5.126%
2026-12-12vs CHA -0.2-5.142%
2026-12-14@ BOS +6.3-5.114%
2026-12-16@ BOS +6.3-5.114%
2026-12-18vs NYK +5.0-5.127%
2026-12-20@ BKN -5.7-5.145%
2026-12-22vs TOR +2.8-5.133%
2026-12-23vs CLE +2.3-5.134%
2026-12-26vs POR +2.4-5.134%
2026-12-27@ CLE +2.3-5.122%
2026-12-30@ TOR +2.8-5.121%
2027-01-01vs SAS +5.9-5.124%
2027-01-03vs LAC -3.2-5.152%
2027-01-05vs LAL +2.3-5.134%
2027-01-07vs OKC +4.7-5.128%
2027-01-08vs MIN +2.8-5.133%
2027-01-11vs ATL +0.8-5.139%
2027-01-12@ PHI +2.5-5.121%
2027-01-15@ HOU +5.3-5.116%
2027-01-17vs IND -0.0-5.141%
2027-01-18vs BOS +6.3-5.123%
2027-01-21@ DEN +3.4-5.119%
2027-01-22@ LAC -3.2-5.137%
2027-01-24@ LAL +2.3-5.122%
2027-01-26@ POR +2.4-5.122%
2027-01-28vs SAC -8.4-5.167%
2027-01-30@ IND -0.0-5.128%
2027-02-01@ ATL +0.8-5.126%
2027-02-04vs NOP -4.6-5.156%
2027-02-06@ BKN -5.7-5.145%
2027-02-08vs CHI -5.2-5.158%
2027-02-10vs MIA +0.5-5.140%
2027-02-12vs BKN -5.7-5.159%
2027-02-13vs MIL -6.5-5.162%
2027-02-15vs PHX -0.8-5.144%
2027-02-17vs MIA +0.5-5.140%
2027-02-25@ MIL -6.5-5.147%
2027-02-27@ UTA -4.4-5.141%
2027-03-01@ PHX -0.5-5.129%
2027-03-02@ SAC -8.4-5.153%
2027-03-04@ GSW +1.2-5.125%
2027-03-06vs UTA -4.4-5.155%
2027-03-09@ SAS +5.9-5.114%
2027-03-11@ DAL -4.3-5.140%
2027-03-14@ MIN +2.8-5.121%
2027-03-16vs NYK +5.0-5.127%
2027-03-18vs PHI +2.5-5.134%
2027-03-20@ NYK +5.0-5.116%
2027-03-22@ MIL -6.5-5.147%
2027-03-24vs DEN +3.4-5.131%
2027-03-27vs GSW +1.2-5.138%
2027-03-28vs DAL -4.3-5.155%
2027-03-31vs CHI -5.2-5.158%
2027-04-02vs PHI +2.5-5.134%
2027-04-03@ ORL +1.0-5.125%
2027-04-05@ NOP -4.6-5.141%
2027-04-07@ MEM -3.4-5.137%
2027-04-09@ MIA +0.5-5.126%
2027-04-11vs DET +3.8-5.130%
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)

Bottom line: Trae Young handles everything with little help behind him, Kyshawn George broke out as the staggered PG2 and perimeter stopper, and Sarr is the center with Anthony Davis at power forward. No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa is a defense-first starter.

Usage & ball-handling
  • Trae Young: 26.7% usage while throwing lobs all night. He played 18.5 first-half minutes because there is so little handling behind him.
  • Anthony Davis: 29.2% first-half usage, but only 3 of 11 shots in the restricted area while playing PF.
  • Kyshawn George: 18 first-half points in 16.5 minutes. He also had four first-half turnovers in the opener.
  • AJ Dybantsa: 17.6% usage. He is an impact defender (four steals) and scores in transition.
  • Tre Johnson: a hot shooter (four straight threes once). Keefe says they need him for spacing.
Minutes & rotation
  • Starters: Young, George, Dybantsa, Davis, Alex Sarr. Deandre Ayton started when Sarr or Davis sat.
  • Sarr is already at full minutes (16.5 in the first half) after his foot fracture, playing both C and PF.
  • Tre Johnson has locked down the sixth-man role (11 first-half minutes), with Keefe also trusting his defense more.
  • Bilal Coulibaly was the sixth or seventh man early. Will Riley is buried (1:25 in a first half), and Bub Carrington and Justin Champagnie barely play.
  • Dybantsa tweaked his ankle in the finale (minor; Johnson started the second half for him).
Who plays together
  • George is staggered from Young to run the PG2 minutes.
  • Sarr is the primary roll man with Young, with Ayton in the dunker spot when they share the floor.
  • The big first unit lets them hide Young on defense. George takes the opponent's best perimeter player.
Pace & shot selection
  • Dybantsa's steals feed transition offense. ETR logged little other team pace data.

Player by player

PlayerModel GPModel MPGModel minPreseason read
Trae Young6634.72,280One of the biggest handling roles in the league.
Anthony Davis5332.61,737PF next to Sarr. Fewer rim shots.
Alex Sarr6228.41,768Starting C at full minutes. Blocks and boards upside.
Kyshawn George6229.91,860Breakout: PG2 and stopper.
AJ Dybantsa6931.12,146No. 1 pick, defense and steals first.
Tre Johnson6424.31,546Sixth man lock, spacing.
Deandre Ayton6221.61,334Backup big. Started next to Davis twice.
Bilal Coulibaly6124.81,516Bench wing.
Will Riley4911.0541Buried.
Bub Carrington6417.91,138Barely playing.

Preseason starting lineups

GameOppStartersOut (ETR's noteworthy inactives)
Oct 8NYKTrae Young, Kyshawn George, AJ Dybantsa, Anthony Davis, Deandre AytonAlex Sarr, Khris Middleton
Oct 10DETTrae Young, Kyshawn George, AJ Dybantsa, Anthony Davis, Alex Sarr
Oct 12BKNTrae Young, AJ Dybantsa, Kyshawn George, Alex Sarr, Deandre AytonAnthony Davis

Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.