WAS Wizards #24 of 30
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
| Player | ETR slot | Pos | Age | GP | MPG | Min | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TO | FG% z | FT% z | FPPG | 9-cat rk | Share % | DPM | Mkt | Rating | O | D | O ctb | D ctb | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young | PG1 | G | 28 | 66 | 34.7 | 2,280 | 21.9 | 3.0 | 10.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 3.8 | -1.08 | +1.69 | 40.8 | 40 | 12.2 | +1.27 | +1.85 | +1.56 | +3.19 | -1.92 | +1.95 | -1.17 | +0.95 |
| AJ DybantsaQ | SF1 | F | 19 | 69 | 31.1 | 2,146 | 19.8 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | +0.35 | +0.08 | 34.3 | 87 | 11.5 | -0.93 | – | -0.93 | -0.42 | -0.50 | -0.24 | -0.29 | -0.53 |
| Kyshawn George | SG1 | F | 22 | 62 | 29.9 | 1,860 | 13.3 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | -0.62 | +0.13 | 27.7 | 120 | 9.9 | -1.54 | -1.44 | -1.49 | -1.13 | -0.41 | -0.56 | -0.20 | -0.74 |
| Alex Sarr | PF1 | C | 21 | 62 | 28.4 | 1,768 | 15.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | -0.29 | -0.55 | 34.5 | 64 | 9.4 | -1.71 | +0.36 | -0.67 | -1.15 | -0.56 | -0.54 | -0.26 | -0.32 |
| Anthony Davis | C1 | F | 33 | 53 | 32.6 | 1,737 | 21.2 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.8 | +1.05 | -0.03 | 45.8 | 17 | 9.3 | +1.65 | +3.46 | +2.56 | +0.21 | +1.44 | +0.10 | +0.67 | +1.19 |
| Tre Johnson | PG2 | G | 20 | 64 | 24.3 | 1,546 | 13.0 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | -0.69 | +0.36 | 21.3 | 236 | 8.3 | -2.70 | -0.83 | -1.77 | -0.85 | -1.85 | -0.35 | -0.77 | -0.73 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | SF2 | G | 22 | 61 | 24.8 | 1,516 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | -0.43 | -0.19 | 22.9 | 181 | 8.1 | -1.50 | -2.75 | -2.12 | -0.99 | -0.51 | -0.40 | -0.20 | -0.86 |
| Deandre Ayton | C2 | C | 28 | 62 | 21.6 | 1,334 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.0 | +1.01 | -0.36 | 23.5 | 199 | 7.1 | +0.57 | -1.90 | -0.66 | -0.58 | +1.15 | -0.20 | +0.41 | -0.24 |
| Justin ChampagnieQ | PF2 | F | 25 | 60 | 19.1 | 1,141 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | +0.01 | -0.01 | 17.5 | 256 | 6.1 | +0.93 | -3.59 | -1.33 | +0.76 | +0.17 | +0.23 | +0.05 | -0.41 |
| Bub Carringtonmpg from ETR FPPG | PG3 | G | 21 | 64 | 17.9 | 1,138 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 13.9 | – | 6.1 | -3.35 | -3.67 | -3.51 | -1.49 | -1.86 | -0.45 | -0.57 | -1.07 |
| Khris Middleton | SG2 | F | 35 | 55 | 19.0 | 1,041 | 9.8 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | -0.36 | +0.40 | 18.8 | 276 | 5.6 | -1.99 | -0.75 | -1.37 | -1.43 | -0.56 | -0.40 | -0.16 | -0.38 |
| Will Rileympg from ETR FPPG | SF3 | G | 20 | 49 | 11.0 | 541 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15.4 | – | 2.9 | -2.35 | -3.58 | -2.97 | -0.89 | -1.46 | -0.13 | -0.21 | -0.43 |
| Tre MannETR depth fill | PG4 | G | 25 | 41 | 6.5 | 270 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.4 | -2.50 | -4.34 | -3.42 | -1.86 | -0.64 | -0.13 | -0.05 | -0.25 |
| Tristan VukcevicINJ 5g · back 11-07ETR depth fill | C3 | F | 23 | 39 | 5.5 | 214 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.1 | +0.40 | -3.78 | -1.69 | +0.25 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | -0.10 |
| Felix OkparaETR depth fill | PF3 | F | 22 | 16 | 4.9 | 78 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -3.46 | -1.35 | -2.41 | -3.08 | -0.39 | -0.06 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| Anthony Gill | F | 34 | 16 | 3.5 | 55 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.3 | -1.74 | -3.24 | -2.49 | -1.55 | -0.19 | -0.02 | -0.00 | -0.04 | |
| Reece Beekman | G | 25 | 16 | 3.5 | 55 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.3 | -2.27 | -4.38 | -3.33 | -2.32 | +0.05 | -0.03 | +0.00 | -0.05 | |
| Team | 18,720 | 106.2 | 41.1 | 23.7 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 9.6 | 13.3 | 100 | -4.00 | -4.07 | -1.24 | -2.76 | -4.04 |
PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.
Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
| Player | Inj | Risk | Out until | Games out | Played | Mon % | ETR % | Avail % | Next % | Exp GP | Season G | ETR G | Mon G | ETR MPG | Mon MPG | Role MPG | Exp min | Monster note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Vukcevic | INJ 5g | high | 2026-11-07 | 5 | 0 | 53 | – | 53 | 0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | – | 39 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 214 | Injured - hip impingement (Injury) - Est. Return 11/07 |
| Trae Young | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 80 | 84 | 100 | 65.7 | 69.7 | 66 | 69 | 34.4 | 35.0 | 34.7 | 2,280 | |||
| Anthony Davis | extreme | 0 | 4 | 76 | 60 | 68 | 100 | 53.3 | 57.3 | 51 | 59 | 32.1 | 33.0 | 32.6 | 1,737 | |||
| AJ Dybantsa | Q | med | 0 | 0 | 88 | 88 | 88 | 100 | 69.1 | 69.1 | 69 | 69 | 31.2 | 31.0 | 31.1 | 2,146 | Questionable - left ankle sprain (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet | |
| Kyshawn George | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 76 | 80 | 100 | 62.2 | 66.2 | 63 | 65 | 29.8 | 30.0 | 29.9 | 1,860 | |||
| Alex Sarr | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 76 | 80 | 100 | 62.2 | 66.2 | 63 | 65 | 29.0 | 28.0 | 28.5 | 1,768 | |||
| Bilal Coulibaly | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 73 | 78 | 100 | 61.2 | 65.2 | 61 | 65 | 26.6 | 23.0 | 24.8 | 1,516 | |||
| Tre Johnson | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 74 | 81 | 100 | 63.7 | 67.7 | 62 | 69 | 26.6 | 22.0 | 24.3 | 1,546 | |||
| Deandre Ayton | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 69 | 79 | 100 | 61.7 | 65.7 | 58 | 69 | 23.4 | 20.0 | 21.7 | 1,334 | |||
| Justin Champagnie | Q | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 67 | 78 | 0 | 59.7 | 63.7 | 56 | 69 | 19.2 | 19.0 | 19.1 | 1,141 | Questionable - foot injury (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet | |
| Khris Middleton | high | 0 | 3 | 80 | 60 | 70 | 100 | 54.8 | 57.8 | 50 | 62 | 22.2 | 16.0 | 19.1 | 1,041 | |||
| Bub Carrington | low | 0 | 4 | 94 | 69 | 81 | 100 | 63.7 | 67.7 | 58 | 73 | 17.7 | 18.0 | 17.9 | 1,138 | |||
| Will Riley | med | 0 | 3 | 56 | 72 | 64 | 0 | 49.4 | 52.4 | 59 | 44 | 19.2 | 16.0 | 17.6 | 541 | |||
| Tre Mann | high | 0 | 1 | 54 | – | 54 | 0 | 41.5 | 42.5 | – | 42 | 12.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 270 |
Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.
ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
| Trae Young | Gallagher #25 | Wizards very short on handling and Trae one year removed B2B 36 MPG seasons |
| AJ Dybantsa | Gallagher #83 | Athletic freak that should shoot it well with rim finishing; has more usage competition than Caleb and Boozer |
| Kyshawn George | Gallagher #128 | Likely will start out slow while the team is healthy but his profile tends to get even better in third year |
| Alex Sarr | Gallagher #76 | Shot profile improved drastically, but AD in the way a bit to throw that off; may need AD trade/injury to pay off |
| Anthony Davis | Gallagher #17 | Ugly last two years on injuries and will be 34 in March; stellar efficiency might come back next to Trae |
| Tre Johnson | Gallagher #149 | Should get plenty of 3-pointers in the second unit and has a path to 25 minutes when team is healthy |
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
Not on ETR's depth chart: Anthony Gill, Reece Beekman
Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
| Date | Opp (net that game) | Our net | Win % | Result | Our players out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | vs MIL -6.4 | 62% | W 128-116 | ||
| 2026-10-23 | vs TOR +2.5 | 34% | L 102-112 | ||
| 2026-10-24 | @ CHI -5.1 | 43% | W 124-120 | ||
| 2026-10-26 | @ CHA -0.3 | 29% | L 103-110 | ||
| 2026-10-28 | @ CLE +4.8 | -3.7 | 19% | Monster tonight Justin Champagnie | |
| 2026-10-30 | vs CHA -3.6 | -5.2 | 52% | ||
| 2026-11-02 | @ ORL -0.5 | -5.2 | 29% | ||
| 2026-11-04 | vs ATL +0.8 | -5.2 | 38% | ||
| 2026-11-06 | @ ATL +0.8 | -5.2 | 25% | ||
| 2026-11-07 | @ OKC +4.7 | -5.1 | 17% | ||
| 2026-11-09 | @ DET +3.8 | -5.1 | 19% | ||
| 2026-11-11 | @ IND -0.0 | -5.1 | 28% | ||
| 2026-11-12 | vs DET +3.8 | -5.1 | 30% | ||
| 2026-11-15 | vs HOU +5.3 | -5.1 | 26% | ||
| 2026-11-16 | vs MEM -3.4 | -5.1 | 52% | ||
| 2026-11-18 | @ TOR +2.8 | -5.1 | 21% | ||
| 2026-11-20 | @ CHI -5.2 | -5.1 | 43% | ||
| 2026-11-22 | vs ORL -0.2 | -5.1 | 42% | ||
| 2026-11-24 | vs BOS +6.3 | -5.1 | 23% | ||
| 2026-11-28 | vs ORL -0.2 | -5.1 | 42% | ||
| 2026-11-30 | @ CHA -0.2 | -5.1 | 28% | ||
| 2026-12-03 | @ MIA +0.5 | -5.1 | 26% | ||
| 2026-12-12 | vs CHA -0.2 | -5.1 | 42% | ||
| 2026-12-14 | @ BOS +6.3 | -5.1 | 14% | ||
| 2026-12-16 | @ BOS +6.3 | -5.1 | 14% | ||
| 2026-12-18 | vs NYK +5.0 | -5.1 | 27% | ||
| 2026-12-20 | @ BKN -5.7 | -5.1 | 45% | ||
| 2026-12-22 | vs TOR +2.8 | -5.1 | 33% | ||
| 2026-12-23 | vs CLE +2.3 | -5.1 | 34% | ||
| 2026-12-26 | vs POR +2.4 | -5.1 | 34% | ||
| 2026-12-27 | @ CLE +2.3 | -5.1 | 22% | ||
| 2026-12-30 | @ TOR +2.8 | -5.1 | 21% | ||
| 2027-01-01 | vs SAS +5.9 | -5.1 | 24% | ||
| 2027-01-03 | vs LAC -3.2 | -5.1 | 52% | ||
| 2027-01-05 | vs LAL +2.3 | -5.1 | 34% | ||
| 2027-01-07 | vs OKC +4.7 | -5.1 | 28% | ||
| 2027-01-08 | vs MIN +2.8 | -5.1 | 33% | ||
| 2027-01-11 | vs ATL +0.8 | -5.1 | 39% | ||
| 2027-01-12 | @ PHI +2.5 | -5.1 | 21% | ||
| 2027-01-15 | @ HOU +5.3 | -5.1 | 16% | ||
| 2027-01-17 | vs IND -0.0 | -5.1 | 41% | ||
| 2027-01-18 | vs BOS +6.3 | -5.1 | 23% | ||
| 2027-01-21 | @ DEN +3.4 | -5.1 | 19% | ||
| 2027-01-22 | @ LAC -3.2 | -5.1 | 37% | ||
| 2027-01-24 | @ LAL +2.3 | -5.1 | 22% | ||
| 2027-01-26 | @ POR +2.4 | -5.1 | 22% | ||
| 2027-01-28 | vs SAC -8.4 | -5.1 | 67% | ||
| 2027-01-30 | @ IND -0.0 | -5.1 | 28% | ||
| 2027-02-01 | @ ATL +0.8 | -5.1 | 26% | ||
| 2027-02-04 | vs NOP -4.6 | -5.1 | 56% | ||
| 2027-02-06 | @ BKN -5.7 | -5.1 | 45% | ||
| 2027-02-08 | vs CHI -5.2 | -5.1 | 58% | ||
| 2027-02-10 | vs MIA +0.5 | -5.1 | 40% | ||
| 2027-02-12 | vs BKN -5.7 | -5.1 | 59% | ||
| 2027-02-13 | vs MIL -6.5 | -5.1 | 62% | ||
| 2027-02-15 | vs PHX -0.8 | -5.1 | 44% | ||
| 2027-02-17 | vs MIA +0.5 | -5.1 | 40% | ||
| 2027-02-25 | @ MIL -6.5 | -5.1 | 47% | ||
| 2027-02-27 | @ UTA -4.4 | -5.1 | 41% | ||
| 2027-03-01 | @ PHX -0.5 | -5.1 | 29% | ||
| 2027-03-02 | @ SAC -8.4 | -5.1 | 53% | ||
| 2027-03-04 | @ GSW +1.2 | -5.1 | 25% | ||
| 2027-03-06 | vs UTA -4.4 | -5.1 | 55% | ||
| 2027-03-09 | @ SAS +5.9 | -5.1 | 14% | ||
| 2027-03-11 | @ DAL -4.3 | -5.1 | 40% | ||
| 2027-03-14 | @ MIN +2.8 | -5.1 | 21% | ||
| 2027-03-16 | vs NYK +5.0 | -5.1 | 27% | ||
| 2027-03-18 | vs PHI +2.5 | -5.1 | 34% | ||
| 2027-03-20 | @ NYK +5.0 | -5.1 | 16% | ||
| 2027-03-22 | @ MIL -6.5 | -5.1 | 47% | ||
| 2027-03-24 | vs DEN +3.4 | -5.1 | 31% | ||
| 2027-03-27 | vs GSW +1.2 | -5.1 | 38% | ||
| 2027-03-28 | vs DAL -4.3 | -5.1 | 55% | ||
| 2027-03-31 | vs CHI -5.2 | -5.1 | 58% | ||
| 2027-04-02 | vs PHI +2.5 | -5.1 | 34% | ||
| 2027-04-03 | @ ORL +1.0 | -5.1 | 25% | ||
| 2027-04-05 | @ NOP -4.6 | -5.1 | 41% | ||
| 2027-04-07 | @ MEM -3.4 | -5.1 | 37% | ||
| 2027-04-09 | @ MIA +0.5 | -5.1 | 26% | ||
| 2027-04-11 | vs DET +3.8 | -5.1 | 30% |
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)
Bottom line: Trae Young handles everything with little help behind him, Kyshawn George broke out as the staggered PG2 and perimeter stopper, and Sarr is the center with Anthony Davis at power forward. No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa is a defense-first starter.
- Trae Young: 26.7% usage while throwing lobs all night. He played 18.5 first-half minutes because there is so little handling behind him.
- Anthony Davis: 29.2% first-half usage, but only 3 of 11 shots in the restricted area while playing PF.
- Kyshawn George: 18 first-half points in 16.5 minutes. He also had four first-half turnovers in the opener.
- AJ Dybantsa: 17.6% usage. He is an impact defender (four steals) and scores in transition.
- Tre Johnson: a hot shooter (four straight threes once). Keefe says they need him for spacing.
- Starters: Young, George, Dybantsa, Davis, Alex Sarr. Deandre Ayton started when Sarr or Davis sat.
- Sarr is already at full minutes (16.5 in the first half) after his foot fracture, playing both C and PF.
- Tre Johnson has locked down the sixth-man role (11 first-half minutes), with Keefe also trusting his defense more.
- Bilal Coulibaly was the sixth or seventh man early. Will Riley is buried (1:25 in a first half), and Bub Carrington and Justin Champagnie barely play.
- Dybantsa tweaked his ankle in the finale (minor; Johnson started the second half for him).
- George is staggered from Young to run the PG2 minutes.
- Sarr is the primary roll man with Young, with Ayton in the dunker spot when they share the floor.
- The big first unit lets them hide Young on defense. George takes the opponent's best perimeter player.
- Dybantsa's steals feed transition offense. ETR logged little other team pace data.
Player by player
| Player | Model GP | Model MPG | Model min | Preseason read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young | 66 | 34.7 | 2,280 | One of the biggest handling roles in the league. |
| Anthony Davis | 53 | 32.6 | 1,737 | PF next to Sarr. Fewer rim shots. |
| Alex Sarr | 62 | 28.4 | 1,768 | Starting C at full minutes. Blocks and boards upside. |
| Kyshawn George | 62 | 29.9 | 1,860 | Breakout: PG2 and stopper. |
| AJ Dybantsa | 69 | 31.1 | 2,146 | No. 1 pick, defense and steals first. |
| Tre Johnson | 64 | 24.3 | 1,546 | Sixth man lock, spacing. |
| Deandre Ayton | 62 | 21.6 | 1,334 | Backup big. Started next to Davis twice. |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 61 | 24.8 | 1,516 | Bench wing. |
| Will Riley | 49 | 11.0 | 541 | Buried. |
| Bub Carrington | 64 | 17.9 | 1,138 | Barely playing. |
Preseason starting lineups
| Game | Opp | Starters | Out (ETR's noteworthy inactives) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | NYK | Trae Young, Kyshawn George, AJ Dybantsa, Anthony Davis, Deandre Ayton | Alex Sarr, Khris Middleton |
| Oct 10 | DET | Trae Young, Kyshawn George, AJ Dybantsa, Anthony Davis, Alex Sarr | |
| Oct 12 | BKN | Trae Young, AJ Dybantsa, Kyshawn George, Alex Sarr, Deandre Ayton | Anthony Davis |
Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.