OKC Thunder #4 of 30
Projected wins
54.6
FanDuel 58.5 (o-115 / u-110) · record 4-0
Net rating
+4.72
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off +2.43 · def +3.51
Next game / full strength
+3.29 / +7.13
2026-10-28 @ DAL (Monster daily minutes) · out: Chet Holmgren; Thomas Sorber; Alex Caruso; Nikola Topic; Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace
DARKO vs market
+4.59 / +4.84
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 54.2 / 55.0
Minutes covered
18,720
of 18,720 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
17
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
-0.40
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
77% ETR
12% MPG from ETR FPPG · 11% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
86 pts
33 reb · 18 ast · 7.7 3pm · 73% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
| Player | ETR slot | Pos | Age | GP | MPG | Min | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TO | FG% z | FT% z | FPPG | 9-cat rk | Share % | DPM | Mkt | Rating | O | D | O ctb | D ctb | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | PG1 | G | 28 | 68 | 34.5 | 2,336 | 30.8 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | +1.60 | +2.26 | 50.0 | 3 | 12.5 | +6.33 | +7.71 | +7.02 | +5.79 | +0.54 | +3.62 | +0.34 | +4.38 |
| Ajay Mitchell | SG2 | G | 24 | 64 | 31.6 | 2,009 | 14.7 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | +0.16 | +0.43 | 27.7 | 103 | 10.7 | +1.24 | +0.78 | +1.01 | +1.02 | +0.23 | +0.54 | +0.12 | +0.54 |
| Chet HolmgrenP | PF1 | C | 24 | 64 | 30.8 | 1,961 | 16.9 | 8.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | +0.80 | +0.10 | 36.1 | 22 | 10.5 | +3.44 | +4.32 | +3.88 | +1.12 | +2.32 | +0.59 | +1.22 | +2.03 |
| Jared McCain | PG2 | G | 22 | 63 | 28.5 | 1,786 | 13.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | -0.65 | +0.25 | 20.8 | 211 | 9.5 | -0.83 | -2.30 | -1.56 | +0.70 | -1.53 | +0.33 | -0.73 | -0.74 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | C1 | C | 28 | 60 | 27.4 | 1,653 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.6 | +0.99 | -0.57 | 30.8 | 101 | 8.8 | +2.87 | +1.66 | +2.27 | -0.39 | +3.25 | -0.17 | +1.43 | +1.00 |
| Jaylin Williams | C2 | F | 24 | 64 | 21.0 | 1,334 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | -0.27 | -0.01 | 19.3 | 213 | 7.1 | +0.88 | +1.16 | +1.02 | -0.16 | +1.04 | -0.06 | +0.37 | +0.36 |
| Alex CarusoQ | SF2 | G | 32 | 58 | 22.1 | 1,287 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | -0.17 | +0.01 | 18.2 | 188 | 6.9 | +2.51 | +1.32 | +1.91 | +0.16 | +2.35 | +0.06 | +0.81 | +0.66 |
| Aday Mara | C3 | C | 21 | 59 | 19.5 | 1,148 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | +1.23 | -1.19 | 23.8 | 233 | 6.1 | -2.33 | -1.63 | -1.98 | -2.71 | +0.38 | -0.83 | +0.12 | -0.61 |
| Kenrich Williamsmpg from ETR FPPG | PF2 | G | 31 | 58 | 19.4 | 1,133 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15.7 | – | 6.1 | +0.13 | +1.21 | +0.67 | -0.68 | +0.81 | -0.21 | +0.25 | +0.20 |
| Bennett Stirtzmpg from ETR FPPG | PG3 | G | 23 | 57 | 19.9 | 1,130 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14.6 | – | 6.0 | -2.43 | -1.33 | -1.88 | -1.32 | -1.10 | -0.40 | -0.33 | -0.57 |
| Nikola TopicINJ | SF3 | G | 21 | 56 | 14.5 | 807 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 16.8 | – | 4.3 | -1.01 | -3.09 | -2.05 | -0.51 | -0.50 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.44 |
| Brooks BarnhizerETR depth fill | PF3 | F | 24 | 48 | 14.3 | 693 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3.7 | -2.46 | -3.10 | -2.78 | -2.33 | -0.13 | -0.43 | -0.02 | -0.52 |
| Micah PeavyETR depth fill | G | 25 | 43 | 14.1 | 611 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3.3 | -1.15 | -2.75 | -1.95 | -1.53 | +0.39 | -0.25 | +0.06 | -0.32 | |
| Thomas SorberINJETR depth fill | C4 | C | 20 | 34 | 12.1 | 405 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.2 | -1.05 | – | -1.05 | -0.75 | -0.31 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.11 |
| Josh DixETR depth fill | SG4 | G | 22 | 48 | 7.3 | 351 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.9 | -2.04 | -1.54 | -1.79 | -1.90 | -0.14 | -0.18 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| Cason WallaceINJ 72g · back 04-01 | SG1 | G | 22 | 2 | 30.0 | 75 | 10.3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | -0.19 | +0.03 | 25.0 | 70 | 0.4 | +2.06 | +0.90 | +1.48 | +0.45 | +1.62 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.03 |
| Jalen WilliamsINJ 78g · back 04-12 | SF1 | G | 25 | 0 | – | 0 | 20.5 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | +0.39 | +0.39 | 37.7 | 41 | 0.0 | +1.75 | +3.59 | +2.67 | +1.48 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Team | 18,720 | 85.8 | 32.9 | 17.6 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 100 | +5.95 | +5.55 | +2.43 | +3.51 | +5.74 |
PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.
Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
| Player | Inj | Risk | Out until | Games out | Played | Mon % | ETR % | Avail % | Next % | Exp GP | Season G | ETR G | Mon G | ETR MPG | Mon MPG | Role MPG | Exp min | Monster note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Williams | INJ 78g | high | 2027-04-12 | 78 | 3 | – | 77 | 77 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 63 | 0 | 32.8 | – | 32.8 | 0 | Injured - ankle surgery (Injury) - Est. Return 04/12 |
| Cason Wallace | INJ 72g | med | 2027-04-01 | 72 | 3 | 0 | 83 | 42 | 0 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 68 | 0 | 30.0 | – | 30.0 | 75 | Injured - left shoulder surgery (Injury) - Est. Return 04/01 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 85 | 86 | 100 | 67.6 | 71.6 | 70 | 69 | 33.7 | 33.0 | 33.4 | 2,336 | |||
| Ajay Mitchell | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 76 | 82 | 50 | 63.7 | 67.7 | 63 | 69 | 29.0 | 32.0 | 30.5 | 2,009 | |||
| Chet Holmgren | P | high | 0 | 3 | 83 | 82 | 83 | 0 | 63.7 | 66.7 | 67 | 65 | 29.6 | 30.0 | 29.8 | 1,961 | Probable - right patellar tendinitis (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet | |
| Jared McCain | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 77 | 80 | 100 | 62.7 | 66.7 | 64 | 65 | 25.0 | 30.0 | 27.5 | 1,786 | |||
| Isaiah Hartenstein | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 70 | 77 | 100 | 60.2 | 64.2 | 59 | 65 | 26.0 | 27.0 | 26.5 | 1,653 | |||
| Alex Caruso | Q | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 68 | 76 | 0 | 58.2 | 62.2 | 57 | 65 | 19.7 | 23.0 | 21.4 | 1,287 | Questionable - ankle (Injury) - status for next game not specified yet | |
| Jaylin Williams | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 74 | 81 | 100 | 63.7 | 67.7 | 62 | 69 | 19.4 | 21.0 | 20.2 | 1,334 | |||
| Bennett Stirtz | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 56 | 72 | 100 | 56.8 | 60.8 | 48 | 69 | 18.4 | 20.0 | 19.2 | 1,130 | |||
| Aday Mara | med | 0 | 4 | 88 | 62 | 75 | 100 | 58.8 | 62.8 | 52 | 69 | 19.8 | 18.0 | 18.9 | 1,148 | |||
| Kenrich Williams | high | 0 | 4 | 83 | 65 | 74 | 100 | 58.3 | 62.3 | 55 | 65 | 19.5 | 18.0 | 18.7 | 1,133 | |||
| Nikola Topic | INJ | high | 0 | 0 | 83 | 62 | 72 | 0 | 55.8 | 55.8 | 48 | 65 | 19.8 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 807 | Injured - back (Injury) - Est. Return 10/28 | |
| Brooks Barnhizer | low | 0 | 3 | 62 | – | 62 | 100 | 48.4 | 51.4 | – | 48 | – | 14.0 | 14.0 | 693 | |||
| Micah Peavy | med | 0 | 0 | 56 | – | 56 | 0 | 43.4 | 43.4 | – | 44 | 12.2 | 15.0 | 13.6 | 611 | |||
| Thomas Sorber | INJ | high | 0 | 0 | 44 | – | 44 | 0 | 33.6 | 33.6 | – | 34 | – | 12.0 | 12.0 | 405 | Injured - knee (Injury) - Est. Return 10/28 |
Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.
ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Gallagher #3 | Jokic and SGA the only truly elite percentage guys; wouldn't be surprised to see more minutes |
| Ajay Mitchell | Gallagher #110 | OKC rotation could get tighter than usual and Ajay showed he can be an alpha when they need it |
| Chet Holmgren | Gallagher #23 | Likely going to fall in drafts because of Wemby owning him, but still has time for offensive growth |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Gallagher #115 | Chet likely plays much more PF to possibly push up iHart's minutes; may need his play-making more |
| Cason Wallace | Gallagher #94 | Won't light it up on scoring, but what if the "new" OKC guys aren't good enough? |
| Jalen Williams | Gallagher #37 | Hamstring derailed 2025-26 season and wrist issue affected him in 24-25, but could see big bounce back |
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
34.5 mpg × 68 g = 2,336
Jared McCain
28.5 mpg × 63 g = 1,786
Bennett Stirtz
19.9 mpg × 57 g = 1,130
SG
Cason Wallace
30.0 mpg × 2 g = 75
Ajay Mitchell
31.6 mpg × 64 g = 2,009
Josh Dix 2W
7.3 mpg × 48 g = 351
SF
Jalen Williams
nan mpg × 0 g = 0
Alex Caruso
22.1 mpg × 58 g = 1,287
Nikola Topic
14.5 mpg × 56 g = 807
PF
Chet Holmgren
30.8 mpg × 64 g = 1,961
Kenrich Williams
19.4 mpg × 58 g = 1,133
Brooks Barnhizer 2W
14.3 mpg × 48 g = 693
C
Isaiah Hartenstein
27.4 mpg × 60 g = 1,653
Jaylin Williams
21.0 mpg × 64 g = 1,334
Aday Mara
19.5 mpg × 59 g = 1,148
Thomas Sorber
12.1 mpg × 34 g = 405
Not on ETR's depth chart: Micah Peavy
Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
| Date | Opp (net that game) | Our net | Win % | Result | Our players out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | @ SAS +5.9 | 39% | W 116-104 | ||
| 2026-10-22 | vs DEN +3.4 | 61% | W 96-84 | ||
| 2026-10-25 | vs LAC -3.4 | 80% | W 108-101 | ||
| 2026-10-26 | vs PHX -0.7 | 73% | W 125-114 | ||
| 2026-10-28 | @ DAL -4.8 | +3.3 | 68% | Monster tonight Chet Holmgren; Thomas Sorber; Alex Caruso; Nikola Topic; Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-10-31 | @ HOU +4.4 | +4.7 | 44% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-11-02 | @ CLE +2.4 | +4.7 | 50% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-11-04 | vs CLE +2.4 | +4.7 | 64% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-11-06 | @ MEM -3.4 | +4.7 | 68% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-11-07 | vs WAS -5.1 | +4.7 | 83% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-11-10 | @ POR +2.4 | +4.7 | 50% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-11-11 | @ POR +2.4 | +4.7 | 50% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-11-13 | @ LAC -3.9 | +4.7 | 69% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-11-15 | @ SAC -8.4 | +4.7 | 81% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-11-18 | vs ATL +0.8 | +4.7 | 69% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-11-20 | vs NOP -4.6 | +4.7 | 82% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-11-22 | @ MIA +0.5 | +4.7 | 56% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-11-23 | @ IND -0.0 | +4.7 | 58% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-11-25 | vs MIN +2.8 | +4.7 | 63% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-11-28 | @ MIL -6.5 | +4.7 | 76% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-11-30 | @ BKN -5.7 | +4.7 | 74% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-12-02 | vs BKN -5.7 | +4.7 | 84% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-12-13 | vs TOR +2.8 | +4.7 | 63% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-12-16 | vs SAC -8.4 | +4.7 | 89% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-12-18 | @ CHA -0.2 | +4.7 | 58% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-12-20 | @ ATL +0.8 | +4.7 | 55% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-12-22 | vs DET +3.8 | +4.7 | 60% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-12-23 | @ NOP -4.6 | +4.7 | 71% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-12-25 | @ MIN +2.8 | +4.7 | 49% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-12-27 | @ HOU +5.3 | +4.7 | 41% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-12-29 | vs MIL -6.5 | +4.7 | 86% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2026-12-31 | vs MIA +0.5 | +4.7 | 70% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-02 | vs UTA -4.4 | +4.7 | 82% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-03 | vs SAC -8.4 | +4.7 | 89% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-06 | @ PHI +2.5 | +4.7 | 50% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-07 | @ WAS -5.1 | +4.7 | 72% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-10 | @ ORL +1.0 | +4.7 | 55% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-13 | vs HOU +5.3 | +4.7 | 55% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-15 | vs UTA -4.4 | +4.7 | 82% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-17 | vs POR +2.4 | +4.7 | 64% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-18 | @ DAL -4.3 | +4.7 | 70% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-20 | @ NOP -4.6 | +4.7 | 71% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-22 | vs MEM -3.4 | +4.7 | 80% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-24 | @ GSW -0.2 | +4.7 | 58% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-26 | @ LAL +2.3 | +4.7 | 50% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-28 | vs MEM -3.4 | +4.7 | 80% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-30 | vs DEN +3.4 | +4.7 | 61% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-01-31 | vs CHI -5.2 | +4.7 | 84% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-02-02 | @ DEN +3.4 | +4.7 | 47% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-02-04 | @ CHI -5.2 | +4.7 | 73% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-02-05 | vs IND +0.1 | +4.7 | 71% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-02-07 | vs NYK +5.0 | +4.7 | 56% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-02-09 | vs POR +2.4 | +4.7 | 64% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-02-11 | vs SAS +5.9 | +4.7 | 54% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-02-13 | vs PHI +2.5 | +4.7 | 64% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-02-15 | vs ORL +1.0 | +4.7 | 68% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-02-17 | vs BOS +6.3 | +4.7 | 52% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-02-25 | @ NYK +5.0 | +4.7 | 42% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-02-27 | @ DET +3.8 | +4.7 | 45% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-03-02 | vs MIN +2.8 | +4.7 | 63% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-03-04 | @ SAC -8.4 | +4.7 | 81% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-03-06 | @ LAL +2.3 | +4.7 | 50% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-03-08 | vs DAL -4.3 | +4.7 | 82% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-03-10 | @ TOR +2.8 | +4.7 | 49% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-03-12 | @ BOS +6.3 | +4.7 | 38% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-03-14 | vs SAS +5.9 | +4.7 | 54% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-03-16 | vs CHA -0.2 | +4.7 | 72% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-03-17 | vs DAL -4.3 | +4.7 | 82% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-03-20 | @ MEM -3.4 | +4.7 | 68% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-03-23 | @ PHX -0.5 | +4.7 | 59% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-03-24 | @ PHX -0.5 | +4.7 | 59% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-03-26 | vs LAC -3.0 | +4.7 | 79% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-03-28 | @ MIN +2.8 | +4.7 | 49% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-03-30 | @ UTA -4.4 | +4.7 | 71% | Jalen Williams; Cason Wallace | |
| 2027-04-01 | vs LAL +2.3 | +5.0 | 66% | Jalen Williams | |
| 2027-04-03 | vs NOP -4.6 | +5.0 | 83% | Jalen Williams | |
| 2027-04-06 | @ UTA -4.4 | +5.0 | 72% | Jalen Williams | |
| 2027-04-08 | vs GSW +1.2 | +5.0 | 69% | Jalen Williams | |
| 2027-04-09 | vs GSW +1.2 | +5.0 | 69% | Jalen Williams | |
| 2027-04-11 | @ DEN +3.4 | +5.0 | 48% | Jalen Williams |
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)
Bottom line: SGA (84 TS%) and a healthy Jalen Williams lead. The Thunder lost a lot of three-point volume, and Jared McCain will shoot freely to replace it. Aday Mara had the best preseason of any big but may still begin outside the rotation.
Usage & ball-handling
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 84 TS% in the preseason, the best among rotation locks. He played some off the ball with Ajay Mitchell handling.
- Jalen Williams: back to full, with burst. He averaged 17.1 first-half minutes and put up 16/3/6 in a 19-minute first half.
- Ajay Mitchell: got a handling role in the last game, but shot a 40.4 TS% in the preseason and was quiet before that (3 points in 17.5 minutes). ETR trimmed his projection.
- Jared McCain: 21.5 3PA per 100 (second in the preseason) and 10 threes in one game.
- Aday Mara: most FD fantasy points in the preseason (only Sengun was ahead per game) at 13/8/3 with 2.4 blocks in 23.3 minutes.
Minutes & rotation
- Starters: SGA, Cason Wallace or Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein.
- Chet Holmgren was inactive in every Thunder game ETR logged. Jaylin Williams (heel) missed the whole preseason.
- Wallace's minutes ran closer to SGA's and Williams' than to his competition's.
- McCain was the sixth man when Mitchell sat, subbing behind Wallace.
- Mara covered the non-Hartenstein minutes. Daigneault said a Mara-Hartenstein pairing probably won't carry into the season, so ETR still expects Mara outside the opening-night rotation (though he could play vs Wemby).
- Rookies Bennett Stirtz (20 points, 22 of 24 second-half minutes) and Mara are blocked by depth. Otega Oweh had a serious non-contact injury and may miss the season.
- ETR moves: Jalen Williams boosted, Mitchell trimmed.
Who plays together
- Mara and Hartenstein shared some minutes vs HOU, but that look likely won't carry into the season.
- McCain subs behind Wallace, with some overlap at the end of stints for Caruso.
Pace & shot selection
- OKC pushed the pace. Wallace's six assists vs MIL came 4 to 17 seconds into the shot clock.
- They lost three-point volume this summer (Dort, Wiggins, Joe) and emphasized threes early, with seven made threes in the first three minutes of the opener.
Player by player
| Player | Model GP | Model MPG | Model min | Preseason read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 68 | 34.5 | 2,336 | 84 TS%. Some off-ball time. |
| Jalen Williams | 0 | – | 0 | Healthy and full-go after last year's hamstring problems. |
| Chet Holmgren | 64 | 30.8 | 1,961 | Didn't play in any game ETR logged. |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 60 | 27.4 | 1,653 | Starting C. |
| Alex Caruso | 58 | 22.1 | 1,287 | Starter. |
| Cason Wallace | 2 | 30.0 | 75 | Starter or sixth man, minutes close to the stars. Steals. |
| Ajay Mitchell | 64 | 31.6 | 2,009 | Handling role but inefficient preseason. |
| Jared McCain | 63 | 28.5 | 1,786 | Sixth or seventh man and the high-volume three-point shooter. |
| Aday Mara | 59 | 19.5 | 1,148 | Breakout preseason. Needs to pass Jaylin Williams to get minutes. |
| Jaylin Williams | 64 | 21.0 | 1,334 | Heel soreness, missed every preseason game. |
Preseason starting lineups
| Game | Opp | Starters | Out (ETR's noteworthy inactives) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | NOP | Jared McCain, Ajay Mitchell, Bennett Stirtz, Kenrich Williams, Aday Mara | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Nikola Topic, Thomas Sorber, Alex Caruso |
| Oct 7 | MIL | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Aday Mara | Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein |
| Oct 12 | ATL | Bennett Stirtz, Josh Dix, Brooks Barnhizer, Ottego Oweh, Aday Mara | |
| Oct 13 | IND | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein | Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams |
| Oct 15 | HOU | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein | Jaylin Williams, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Nikola Topic |
Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.