NYK Knicks #5 of 30
Projected wins
51.8
FanDuel 48.5 (o-150 / u+120) · record 1-3
Net rating
+5.03
avg over remaining games · 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market · DARKO off +3.58 · def +1.82
Next game / full strength
+6.83 / +5.01
2026-10-28 @ CHI (Monster daily minutes) · out: Jose Alvarado
DARKO vs market
+4.05 / +6.01
net on DPM alone / market alone · wins 49.6 / 53.9
Minutes covered
18,720
of 18,720 remaining · fill 0 @ replacement
Roster
17
0 rookies on model/prior
Schedule
-0.09
avg opp net · 2 games unscheduled
ETR minutes mix
86% ETR
8% MPG from ETR FPPG · 5% ETR depth fill
ETR box (rated players)
100 pts
37 reb · 24 ast · 12.4 3pm · 86% of minutes
Roster assumptions minutes: per game: role MPG = mean of ETR + Monster ROS + ros_return, availability from Monster ROS (injury timelines); slate 10-28 (24 teams) on Monster daily minutes, pulled 10-28 15:39 · ETR per-game stats · rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market per 100 poss · contrib = 5 × rating × minute share · names link to DataBallr
| Player | ETR slot | Pos | Age | GP | MPG | Min | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TO | FG% z | FT% z | FPPG | 9-cat rk | Share % | DPM | Mkt | Rating | O | D | O ctb | D ctb | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikal Bridges | SG1 | G | 30 | 76 | 31.7 | 2,394 | 14.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | +0.02 | +0.17 | 28.6 | 62 | 12.8 | +0.25 | +1.98 | +1.11 | +0.32 | -0.08 | +0.21 | -0.05 | +0.71 |
| Jalen Brunson | PG1 | G | 30 | 67 | 34.7 | 2,332 | 25.9 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 2.3 | -0.19 | +0.83 | 41.0 | 35 | 12.5 | +3.11 | +5.24 | +4.17 | +4.12 | -1.01 | +2.57 | -0.63 | +2.60 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | C1 | C | 30 | 67 | 31.5 | 2,097 | 21.6 | 12.0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 | +0.63 | +0.80 | 42.9 | 12 | 11.2 | +3.42 | +2.59 | +3.00 | +2.07 | +1.35 | +1.16 | +0.75 | +1.68 |
| O.G. Anunoby | PF1 | F | 29 | 63 | 33.2 | 2,084 | 17.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | +0.02 | +0.25 | 31.9 | 44 | 11.1 | +3.36 | +2.22 | +2.79 | +1.86 | +1.50 | +1.03 | +0.83 | +1.55 |
| Josh Hart | SF1 | G | 31 | 65 | 31.7 | 2,053 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | +0.00 | -0.11 | 30.9 | 85 | 11.0 | +0.70 | +0.57 | +0.63 | -0.05 | +0.75 | -0.03 | +0.41 | +0.35 |
| Miles McBride | SG2 | G | 26 | 63 | 23.3 | 1,472 | 9.8 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | -0.74 | +0.06 | 18.3 | 225 | 7.9 | +1.40 | -0.20 | +0.60 | +0.78 | +0.62 | +0.31 | +0.24 | +0.23 |
| Landry Shamet | SF2 | G | 29 | 61 | 24.0 | 1,471 | 9.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | -0.45 | -0.05 | 15.5 | 282 | 7.9 | +0.17 | -0.35 | -0.09 | -0.18 | +0.35 | -0.07 | +0.14 | -0.04 |
| Andre Drummond | C2 | C | 33 | 63 | 17.3 | 1,096 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.0 | +0.05 | -0.53 | 21.7 | 224 | 5.9 | -1.18 | +1.92 | +0.37 | -2.49 | +1.31 | -0.73 | +0.39 | +0.11 |
| Jose AlvaradoOUT | PG2 | G | 28 | 59 | 18.0 | 1,066 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | -0.47 | +0.02 | 18.2 | 251 | 5.7 | +0.46 | -0.47 | -0.01 | -0.21 | +0.67 | -0.06 | +0.19 | -0.00 |
| Jordan Clarksonmpg from ETR FPPG | SG3 | G | 34 | 64 | 16.2 | 1,040 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14.9 | – | 5.6 | -1.66 | +0.53 | -0.57 | -0.88 | -0.78 | -0.25 | -0.22 | -0.16 |
| Mohamed Diawarampg from ETR FPPG | PF3 | F | 21 | 61 | 8.4 | 512 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14.6 | – | 2.7 | -2.21 | -3.57 | -2.89 | -1.56 | -0.65 | -0.21 | -0.09 | -0.40 |
| James Wiseman | C | 25 | 43 | 6.0 | 259 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.4 | -3.31 | -3.54 | -3.43 | -3.07 | -0.25 | -0.21 | -0.02 | -0.24 | |
| Tyler KolekETR depth fill | PG3 | G | 25 | 45 | 5.7 | 259 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.4 | -1.46 | -1.31 | -1.39 | -0.91 | -0.55 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.10 |
| Dalton KnechtETR depth fill | F | 25 | 44 | 5.5 | 246 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.3 | -0.86 | -1.67 | -1.26 | -0.01 | -0.85 | -0.00 | -0.06 | -0.08 | |
| Pacome DadietETR depth fill | PF2 | F | 21 | 44 | 4.5 | 201 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.1 | -0.74 | -2.97 | -1.85 | -0.14 | -0.60 | -0.01 | -0.03 | -0.10 |
| Kevin McCullar Jrdarko_feb2026ETR depth fill | SG4 | 16 | 4.7 | 74 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -1.86 | – | -1.86 | -1.49 | -0.37 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.04 | ||
| Tyler NickelETR depth fill | SF3 | F | 23 | 16 | 4.2 | 66 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4 | -2.33 | – | -2.33 | -1.77 | -0.56 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| Team | 18,720 | 99.9 | 37.4 | 23.8 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 12.4 | 10.0 | 100 | +5.39 | +6.72 | +3.57 | +1.82 | +6.05 |
PTS–TO are ETR per-game projections (recovered from ETR's 9-cat z-scores; blank = outside ETR's 9-cat top 300; method on the Inputs page). Team row = Σ(per-game × games)/82. Rating = 50% DARKO DPM + 50% DARKO market rating (DARKO's player rating implied by closing betting spreads, per 100 poss); DPM alone where DARKO has no market rating. Team row under DPM / Mkt = Σ contrib on that rating alone. O/D ctb split DARKO's DPM (the market rating has no O/D split), so they add up to the DPM side, not the blended contrib. Fill of 0 minutes at replacement DPM (-2.2) contributes -0.00. GP / MPG / Min are expected over the remaining games: each game's 240 minutes go to whoever is available (see Injuries & availability), so a player's rating only counts in the games he is projected to play. League-relative centering shifts every team by the same constant.
Injuries & availability Monster return dates · games played so far · chance to play each game = half Monster, half ETR preseason · role MPG = ETR + Monster
| Player | Inj | Risk | Out until | Games out | Played | Mon % | ETR % | Avail % | Next % | Exp GP | Season G | ETR G | Mon G | ETR MPG | Mon MPG | Role MPG | Exp min | Monster note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | med | 0 | 4 | 90 | 82 | 86 | 100 | 67.1 | 71.1 | 68 | 70 | 34.4 | 35.0 | 34.7 | 2,332 | |||
| O.G. Anunoby | high | 0 | 4 | 85 | 76 | 80 | 100 | 62.7 | 66.7 | 63 | 66 | 33.4 | 33.0 | 33.2 | 2,084 | |||
| Mikal Bridges | low | 0 | 4 | 100 | 94 | 97 | 100 | 75.5 | 79.5 | 77 | 78 | 32.4 | 31.0 | 31.7 | 2,394 | |||
| Josh Hart | high | 0 | 4 | 85 | 81 | 83 | 100 | 64.7 | 68.7 | 67 | 66 | 31.4 | 32.0 | 31.7 | 2,053 | |||
| Karl-Anthony Towns | med | 0 | 4 | 90 | 81 | 85 | 100 | 66.6 | 70.6 | 67 | 70 | 31.9 | 31.0 | 31.4 | 2,097 | |||
| Landry Shamet | high | 0 | 4 | 85 | 72 | 78 | 100 | 61.2 | 65.2 | 60 | 66 | 23.0 | 25.0 | 24.0 | 1,471 | |||
| Miles McBride | high | 0 | 4 | 85 | 77 | 81 | 100 | 63.2 | 67.2 | 64 | 66 | 22.7 | 24.0 | 23.4 | 1,472 | |||
| Jose Alvarado | OUT | high | 0 | 2 | 83 | 70 | 77 | 0 | 59.2 | 61.2 | 57 | 65 | 18.9 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 1,066 | Out - left ankle sprain (Injury) - Est. Return 10/28 | |
| Andre Drummond | med | 0 | 4 | 90 | 72 | 81 | 100 | 63.2 | 67.2 | 60 | 70 | 19.7 | 15.0 | 17.4 | 1,096 | |||
| Jordan Clarkson | med | 0 | 3 | 90 | 77 | 83 | 0 | 64.2 | 67.2 | 63 | 70 | 18.7 | 16.0 | 17.3 | 1,040 | |||
| Mohamed Diawara | med | 0 | 1 | 90 | 69 | 80 | 0 | 61.2 | 62.2 | 55 | 70 | 18.4 | 15.0 | 16.7 | 512 | |||
| James Wiseman | high | 0 | 3 | 55 | – | 55 | 100 | 43.4 | 46.4 | – | 43 | – | 12.0 | 12.0 | 259 | |||
| Tyler Kolek | med | 0 | 2 | 58 | – | 58 | 100 | 45.4 | 47.4 | – | 45 | 12.1 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 259 | |||
| Dalton Knecht | med | 0 | 0 | 58 | – | 58 | 0 | 44.4 | 44.4 | – | 45 | 12.1 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 246 |
Before his est. return a player gets none of this team's games (Q: half), so his rating comes out of exactly those games and his minutes go to whoever is available (bench first, starters stretch up to +20%). Once healthy he plays Avail % of games: half Monster's rest-of-season rate, half ETR's preseason games (less the games he has already played, which are settled; for a player coming back from an injury, ETR's per-game rate). Monster ROS dump 2026-10-27 11:46 ET (1.2 days old), 522 rostered, 58 with an est. return.
ETR notes Gallagher Top 150 + ETR depth chart
| Mikal Bridges | Gallagher #74 | 82 games in the bag and minutes could come back up after awful close to regular season |
| Jalen Brunson | Gallagher #30 | Durability and consistency the name of the game for reigning Finals MVP |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Gallagher #11 | Expecting NYK to play through him given 120 O rating in playoffs and rebounding could be back up sans MitchRob |
| O.G. Anunoby | Gallagher #52 | Efficiency peaked late at 72.1 TS% in playoffs and 64.9 TS% post break; Brown has to play him a ton |
| Josh Hart | Gallagher #103 | Brown cut his minutes from Thib's 37.6 to 30.2 but he had a nagging injury; will still play a ton and fill it up |
ETR depth chart ETR order · minutes the model uses
PG
Jalen Brunson
34.7 mpg × 67 g = 2,332
Jose Alvarado
18.0 mpg × 59 g = 1,066
Tyler Kolek
5.7 mpg × 45 g = 259
SG
Mikal Bridges
31.7 mpg × 76 g = 2,394
Miles McBride
23.3 mpg × 63 g = 1,472
Jordan Clarkson
16.2 mpg × 64 g = 1,040
Kevin McCullar Jr 2W
4.7 mpg × 16 g = 74
SF
Josh Hart
31.7 mpg × 65 g = 2,053
Landry Shamet
24.0 mpg × 61 g = 1,471
Tyler Nickel 2W
4.2 mpg × 16 g = 66
PF
O.G. Anunoby
33.2 mpg × 63 g = 2,084
Pacome Dadiet
4.5 mpg × 44 g = 201
Mohamed Diawara
8.4 mpg × 61 g = 512
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
31.5 mpg × 67 g = 2,097
Andre Drummond
17.3 mpg × 63 g = 1,096
Not on ETR's depth chart: James Wiseman, Dalton Knecht
Schedule 4 played · each remaining game uses both teams' nets for that date (who is out) · win prob from net-rating gap + 2.3 HCA, sd 12.5
| Date | Opp (net that game) | Our net | Win % | Result | Our players out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | vs PHI +2.5 | 65% | L 100-106 | ||
| 2026-10-23 | @ BOS +6.3 | 39% | L 103-107 | ||
| 2026-10-25 | vs ORL +0.7 | 70% | L 102-111 | ||
| 2026-10-27 | vs DET +3.7 | 61% | W 111-97 | ||
| 2026-10-28 | @ CHI -4.2 | +6.8 | 76% | Monster tonight Jose Alvarado | |
| 2026-10-30 | @ PHI +2.5 | +5.0 | 51% | ||
| 2026-11-02 | vs BKN -5.7 | +5.0 | 85% | ||
| 2026-11-04 | vs CHI -5.2 | +5.0 | 84% | ||
| 2026-11-07 | @ CLE +2.4 | +5.0 | 51% | ||
| 2026-11-10 | vs MIL -6.5 | +5.0 | 86% | ||
| 2026-11-11 | vs CLE +2.4 | +5.0 | 65% | ||
| 2026-11-13 | @ IND -0.0 | +5.0 | 59% | ||
| 2026-11-15 | @ TOR +2.8 | +5.0 | 50% | ||
| 2026-11-17 | @ TOR +2.8 | +5.0 | 50% | ||
| 2026-11-19 | @ MIN +2.8 | +5.0 | 50% | ||
| 2026-11-21 | vs POR +2.4 | +5.0 | 65% | ||
| 2026-11-22 | vs IND -0.0 | +5.0 | 72% | ||
| 2026-11-25 | vs CLE +2.3 | +5.0 | 66% | ||
| 2026-11-27 | vs MIA +0.5 | +5.0 | 71% | ||
| 2026-11-29 | vs ATL +0.8 | +5.0 | 70% | ||
| 2026-12-01 | @ CHI -5.2 | +5.0 | 74% | ||
| 2026-12-02 | @ MIL -6.5 | +5.0 | 77% | ||
| 2026-12-12 | @ MIA +0.5 | +5.0 | 57% | ||
| 2026-12-14 | @ HOU +5.3 | +5.0 | 42% | ||
| 2026-12-16 | @ NOP -4.6 | +5.0 | 72% | ||
| 2026-12-18 | @ WAS -5.1 | +5.0 | 73% | ||
| 2026-12-21 | @ CLE +2.3 | +5.0 | 51% | ||
| 2026-12-23 | vs UTA -4.4 | +5.0 | 83% | ||
| 2026-12-25 | vs SAS +5.9 | +5.0 | 54% | ||
| 2026-12-27 | vs BKN -5.7 | +5.0 | 85% | ||
| 2026-12-30 | @ UTA -4.4 | +5.0 | 72% | ||
| 2026-12-31 | @ PHX -0.8 | +5.0 | 61% | ||
| 2027-01-02 | @ DEN +3.4 | +5.0 | 48% | ||
| 2027-01-04 | @ POR +2.4 | +5.0 | 51% | ||
| 2027-01-06 | @ GSW -0.2 | +5.0 | 59% | ||
| 2027-01-08 | @ SAC -8.4 | +5.0 | 81% | ||
| 2027-01-11 | vs DEN +3.4 | +5.0 | 62% | ||
| 2027-01-13 | @ BOS +6.3 | +5.0 | 39% | ||
| 2027-01-14 | vs MIA +0.5 | +5.0 | 71% | ||
| 2027-01-16 | vs DAL -4.3 | +5.0 | 82% | ||
| 2027-01-18 | vs MIN +2.8 | +5.0 | 64% | ||
| 2027-01-20 | vs TOR +2.8 | +5.0 | 64% | ||
| 2027-01-22 | @ ATL +0.8 | +5.0 | 56% | ||
| 2027-01-24 | vs LAC -3.2 | +5.0 | 80% | ||
| 2027-01-26 | vs PHX -0.8 | +5.0 | 74% | ||
| 2027-01-28 | vs ATL +0.8 | +5.0 | 70% | ||
| 2027-01-30 | vs LAL +2.3 | +5.0 | 66% | ||
| 2027-02-01 | @ BKN -5.7 | +5.0 | 75% | ||
| 2027-02-03 | @ DET +3.8 | +5.0 | 46% | ||
| 2027-02-04 | vs TOR +2.8 | +5.0 | 64% | ||
| 2027-02-07 | @ OKC +4.7 | +5.0 | 44% | ||
| 2027-02-09 | vs CHA -0.2 | +5.0 | 73% | ||
| 2027-02-11 | @ PHI +2.5 | +5.0 | 51% | ||
| 2027-02-13 | vs GSW +1.2 | +5.0 | 69% | ||
| 2027-02-15 | @ MEM -3.4 | +5.0 | 69% | ||
| 2027-02-17 | @ DET +3.8 | +5.0 | 46% | ||
| 2027-02-25 | vs OKC +4.7 | +5.0 | 58% | ||
| 2027-02-27 | vs PHI +2.5 | +5.0 | 65% | ||
| 2027-02-28 | vs MIL -6.5 | +5.0 | 86% | ||
| 2027-03-02 | vs MEM -3.4 | +5.0 | 80% | ||
| 2027-03-04 | @ DAL -4.3 | +5.0 | 71% | ||
| 2027-03-07 | @ SAS +5.9 | +5.0 | 40% | ||
| 2027-03-10 | @ LAC -3.0 | +5.0 | 68% | ||
| 2027-03-11 | @ LAL +2.3 | +5.0 | 51% | ||
| 2027-03-14 | vs BOS +6.3 | +5.0 | 53% | ||
| 2027-03-16 | @ WAS -5.1 | +5.0 | 73% | ||
| 2027-03-17 | vs SAC -8.4 | +5.0 | 90% | ||
| 2027-03-20 | vs WAS -5.1 | +5.0 | 84% | ||
| 2027-03-23 | vs NOP -4.6 | +5.0 | 83% | ||
| 2027-03-24 | vs HOU +5.3 | +5.0 | 56% | ||
| 2027-03-26 | @ CHA -0.2 | +5.0 | 59% | ||
| 2027-03-28 | @ ORL +1.0 | +5.0 | 55% | ||
| 2027-03-30 | @ ORL +1.0 | +5.0 | 55% | ||
| 2027-04-01 | vs CHA -0.2 | +5.0 | 73% | ||
| 2027-04-02 | @ BKN -5.7 | +5.0 | 75% | ||
| 2027-04-04 | vs BOS +6.3 | +5.0 | 53% | ||
| 2027-04-06 | @ ATL +0.8 | +5.0 | 56% | ||
| 2027-04-08 | @ MIL -6.5 | +5.0 | 77% | ||
| 2027-04-09 | vs DET +3.8 | +5.0 | 61% | ||
| 2027-04-11 | vs IND +0.0 | +5.0 | 72% |
ETR preseason breakdown usage · minutes · who plays together · player by player · pace & shots, from Gallagher's game-by-game change log (Sept 28 – Oct 16)
Bottom line: The champs have the most stable rotation in the league: the play-through-KAT offense that won the title, with Andre Drummond taking every non-KAT minute and Deuce McBride losing ground.
Usage & ball-handling
- Karl-Anthony Towns: 13/15/9 in 29 minutes and in excellent shape. The offense runs through him, as in the title run.
- Andre Drummond: the Knicks ran some offense through him too.
- Jalen Brunson (reigning Finals MVP) has his usual role.
- Josh Hart is playing through a finger injury and could have a tighter leash if his shot isn't falling.
Minutes & rotation
- Starters: Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Hart, OG Anunoby, Towns. Mohamed Diawara started when Hart sat.
- Drummond takes every non-KAT minute with no overlap, so there's less two-big time than KAT and Mitchell Robinson had.
- Bench: Landry Shamet is the lead bench wing (non-Hart minutes, behind Bridges). Jose Alvarado gets the non-Brunson minutes. McBride had only six first-half minutes even with Hart out.
- Mike Brown split bench spots in one game (Tyler Kolek with Alvarado, Jordan Clarkson with McBride). ETR cut McBride.
- Bruce Brown and James Wiseman were competing for the last roster spot.
Who plays together
- Towns and Drummond don't share the floor.
- Shamet and Alvarado are the straight swaps for Hart/Bridges and Brunson.
Pace & shot selection
- ETR logged little pace or shot data. The bench and fringe guys lost a first half 86-47 when the core rested on a back-to-back.
Player by player
| Player | Model GP | Model MPG | Model min | Preseason read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 67 | 31.5 | 2,097 | Offensive hub, excellent shape. |
| Jalen Brunson | 67 | 34.7 | 2,332 | Unchanged. |
| Mikal Bridges | 76 | 31.7 | 2,394 | Starter. |
| OG Anunoby | 63 | 33.2 | 2,084 | Starter. |
| Josh Hart | 65 | 31.7 | 2,053 | Starter, playing through a finger injury. |
| Andre Drummond | 63 | 17.3 | 1,096 | Every non-KAT minute. Would get a huge role if KAT misses time. |
| Landry Shamet | 61 | 24.0 | 1,471 | Lead bench wing. |
| Jose Alvarado | 59 | 18.0 | 1,066 | Backup PG. |
| Miles McBride | 63 | 23.3 | 1,472 | Lost his minutes to Shamet and Alvarado. |
| Mohamed Diawara | 61 | 8.4 | 512 | Spot starter when Hart is out. |
Preseason starting lineups
| Game | Opp | Starters | Out (ETR's noteworthy inactives) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | PHI | Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns | Jose Alvarado |
| Oct 8 | WAS | Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Oct 12 | MIN | Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Oct 13 | TOR | Jose Alvarado, Bruce Brown, Deuce McBride, Mohamed Diawara, James Wiseman | Jordan Clarkson |
| Oct 15 | TOR | Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Mohamed Diawara, Karl-Anthony Towns | Josh Hart |
Summarized from ETR's 2026-27 Change Log and Preseason News (pulled Oct 18). Preseason minutes are mostly first-half numbers since starters rarely play second halves. Model GP/MPG/min are the ETR season projections this model uses, so the read shows where preseason usage agrees or disagrees with the minutes driving the win total. Projection moves ETR made during the preseason are noted under Minutes.