NBA futures: sim fair value vs FanDuel
Simulated seasons
20,000
ran 2026-10-28 15:40 · 1.7s
FanDuel prices
2,147
pulled Oct 28 3:40 PM ET · 727 +EV
Team uncertainty
±2.5 net
Student-t, 5 df, per team per season
Shown
6
+EV bets passing the filters
Best by Kelly top 6 by full-Kelly fraction · ½ Kelly alongside
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Boston Celtics | +470 | 17.5 | +186 | 35.0 | +17.5 | +99.6 | +21.2 | +10.6 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Oklahoma City Thunder | +210 | 32.3 | +137 | 42.1 | +9.9 | +30.6 | +14.6 | +7.3 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Houston Rockets | +950 | 9.5 | +810 | 11.0 | +1.5 | +15.4 | +1.6 | +0.8 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Denver Nuggets | +1300 | 7.1 | +1248 | 7.4 | +0.3 | +3.9 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | New York Knicks | +390 | 20.4 | +385 | 20.6 | +0.2 | +1.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Detroit Pistons | +850 | 10.5 | +836 | 10.7 | +0.2 | +1.5 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
Best by EV top 6 by expected return per $1
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Boston Celtics | +470 | 17.5 | +186 | 35.0 | +17.5 | +99.6 | +21.2 | +10.6 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Oklahoma City Thunder | +210 | 32.3 | +137 | 42.1 | +9.9 | +30.6 | +14.6 | +7.3 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Houston Rockets | +950 | 9.5 | +810 | 11.0 | +1.5 | +15.4 | +1.6 | +0.8 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Denver Nuggets | +1300 | 7.1 | +1248 | 7.4 | +0.3 | +3.9 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Detroit Pistons | +850 | 10.5 | +836 | 10.7 | +0.2 | +1.5 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | New York Knicks | +390 | 20.4 | +385 | 20.6 | +0.2 | +1.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
Eastern Conference Winner 15 prices · 3 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Boston Celtics | +470 | 17.5 | +186 | 35.0 | +17.5 | +99.6 | +21.2 | +10.6 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | New York Knicks | +390 | 20.4 | +385 | 20.6 | +0.2 | +1.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Toronto Raptors | +650 | 13.3 | +836 | 10.7 | -2.7 | -19.9 | -3.1 | -1.5 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Detroit Pistons | +850 | 10.5 | +836 | 10.7 | +0.2 | +1.5 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Philadelphia 76ers | +390 | 20.4 | +841 | 10.6 | -9.8 | -47.9 | -12.3 | -6.1 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Cleveland Cavaliers | +950 | 9.5 | +2032 | 4.7 | -4.8 | -50.8 | -5.3 | -2.7 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Atlanta Hawks | +1700 | 5.6 | +4435 | 2.2 | -3.4 | -60.3 | -3.5 | -1.8 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Miami Heat | +1800 | 5.3 | +6394 | 1.5 | -3.7 | -70.7 | -3.9 | -2.0 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Indiana Pacers | +1500 | 6.2 | +6479 | 1.5 | -4.7 | -75.7 | -5.0 | -2.5 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Charlotte Hornets | +3500 | 2.8 | +8869 | 1.1 | -1.7 | -59.9 | -1.7 | -0.9 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Orlando Magic | +2000 | 4.8 | +9334 | 1.1 | -3.7 | -77.7 | -3.9 | -1.9 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Washington Wizards | +8000 | 1.2 | +79900 | 0.1 | -1.1 | -89.9 | -1.1 | -0.6 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Brooklyn Nets | +60000 | 0.2 | +166567 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -63.9 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Chicago Bulls | +60000 | 0.2 | +199900 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -70.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Conference winner | Eastern Conference Winner | Milwaukee Bucks | +50000 | 0.2 | +499900 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -90.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
Western Conference Winner 15 prices · 3 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Oklahoma City Thunder | +210 | 32.3 | +137 | 42.1 | +9.9 | +30.6 | +14.6 | +7.3 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | San Antonio Spurs | +155 | 39.2 | +353 | 22.1 | -17.1 | -43.7 | -28.2 | -14.1 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Houston Rockets | +950 | 9.5 | +810 | 11.0 | +1.5 | +15.4 | +1.6 | +0.8 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Denver Nuggets | +1300 | 7.1 | +1248 | 7.4 | +0.3 | +3.9 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Minnesota Timberwolves | +950 | 9.5 | +1362 | 6.8 | -2.7 | -28.2 | -3.0 | -1.5 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Portland Trail Blazers | +1500 | 6.2 | +1928 | 4.9 | -1.3 | -21.1 | -1.4 | -0.7 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Los Angeles Lakers | +1400 | 6.7 | +2782 | 3.5 | -3.2 | -47.9 | -3.4 | -1.7 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Golden State Warriors | +3500 | 2.8 | +6209 | 1.6 | -1.2 | -42.9 | -1.2 | -0.6 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Phoenix Suns | +7500 | 1.3 | +46412 | 0.2 | -1.1 | -83.7 | -1.1 | -0.6 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Memphis Grizzlies | +12500 | 0.8 | +83233 | 0.1 | -0.7 | -84.9 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Dallas Mavericks | +15000 | 0.7 | +124900 | 0.1 | -0.6 | -87.9 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Los Angeles Clippers | +50000 | 0.2 | +142757 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -64.9 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | New Orleans Pelicans | +35000 | 0.3 | +285614 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -87.7 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Utah Jazz | +22500 | 0.4 | +333233 | 0.0 | -0.4 | -93.2 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| Conference winner | Western Conference Winner | Sacramento Kings | +80000 | 0.1 | +499900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -84.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Simulated season by team means over the simulated seasons
| Team | Wins | ± sd | Seed | Play-in % | Playoffs % | 2nd rd % | Conf finals % | Finals % | Title % | Playoff net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 54.3 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 8 | 98 | 82 | 60 | 42.1 | 28.7 | +9.2 |
| BOS | 56.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 4 | 98 | 79 | 55 | 35.0 | 17.5 | +7.3 |
| SAS | 54.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 7 | 98 | 72 | 42 | 22.1 | 12.5 | +6.9 |
| NYK | 51.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 14 | 94 | 65 | 39 | 20.6 | 8.8 | +5.9 |
| HOU | 55.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 7 | 98 | 62 | 29 | 11.0 | 5.5 | +4.8 |
| TOR | 46.9 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 32 | 82 | 45 | 22 | 10.7 | 4.1 | +4.4 |
| PHI | 47.8 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 28 | 85 | 47 | 23 | 10.6 | 4.0 | +4.3 |
| DET | 51.1 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 16 | 92 | 54 | 25 | 10.7 | 3.8 | +4.0 |
| DEN | 48.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 29 | 89 | 45 | 19 | 7.4 | 3.5 | +4.3 |
| MIN | 48.4 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 29 | 89 | 43 | 18 | 6.8 | 3.3 | +4.2 |
| POR | 48.0 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 31 | 87 | 37 | 14 | 4.9 | 2.3 | +3.3 |
| LAL | 47.2 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 35 | 85 | 31 | 11 | 3.5 | 1.5 | +2.5 |
| CLE | 46.9 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 33 | 80 | 34 | 13 | 4.7 | 1.3 | +2.2 |
| GSW | 41.2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 58 | 59 | 16 | 5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | +1.4 |
| ATL | 43.4 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 46 | 63 | 20 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | +0.6 |
| MIA | 40.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 50 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| IND | 40.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 50 | 46 | 14 | 4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | +0.5 |
| CHA | 40.7 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 50 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -0.4 |
| ORL | 42.5 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 47 | 56 | 14 | 4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -0.7 |
| PHX | 39.5 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 58 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -3.0 |
| MEM | 34.8 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 44 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -3.5 |
| WAS | 29.1 | 6.6 | 12.5 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -5.2 |
| LAC | 32.7 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 33 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -4.5 |
| BKN | 25.7 | 6.5 | 13.4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -6.6 |
| DAL | 31.4 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -5.3 |
| CHI | 27.8 | 6.6 | 12.8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -6.5 |
| UTA | 29.1 | 6.6 | 12.3 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -6.5 |
| NOP | 28.9 | 6.7 | 12.3 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -6.1 |
| MIL | 25.2 | 6.3 | 13.5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -7.4 |
| SAC | 20.5 | 6.0 | 14.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -10.5 |
Each simulated season draws a fat-tailed rating shock per team, then plays every remaining game with that date's team nets (who is out, from the minutes model) + 2.3 home court, sd 12.5; the 2 unscheduled games sit in the Dec 4-11 Cup window. Standings: wins, 2-team head-to-head, conference record, point differential. NBA Cup: FanDuel's groups, group record / head-to-head / point differential, best 2nd place per conference as wild card. Play-in, then best-of-7 series with home court to the better seed; playoff nets use DARKO's market playoff rating, a tighter rotation, and anyone back from injury by 2027-04-18. Seeds and division places are regular-season standings. "More wins than" ties are treated as a push and most / fewest wins ties as dead heats (check FanDuel's rules). Kelly = (p x decimal - 1) / (decimal - 1). Not priced (not team outcomes): Clutch Player Of The Year (1), Coach Of The Year (1), Defensive Player Of The Year (1), Eastern Conference Finals Mvp (1), Finals Mvp (1), In Season Tournament Mvp (1), Most Improved Player (1), Most Valuable Player (1), Rookie Of The Year (1), Sixth Man Of The Year (1), Western Conference Finals Mvp (1).