NBA futures: sim fair value vs FanDuel
Simulated seasons
20,000
ran 2026-10-28 15:40 · 1.7s
FanDuel prices
2,147
pulled Oct 28 3:40 PM ET · 727 +EV
Team uncertainty
±2.5 net
Student-t, 5 df, per team per season
Shown
20
+EV bets passing the filters
Best by Kelly top 20 by full-Kelly fraction · ½ Kelly alongside
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Boston Celtics incl. games played | -900 | 90.0 | -1348 | 93.1 | +3.1 | +3.4 | +30.9 | +15.5 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Golden State Warriors incl. games played | +170 | 37.0 | -105 | 51.3 | +14.2 | +38.4 | +22.6 | +11.3 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Boston Celtics incl. games played | -210 | 67.7 | -279 | 73.6 | +5.9 | +8.7 | +18.2 | +9.1 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | New York Knicks incl. games played | -550 | 84.6 | -641 | 86.5 | +1.9 | +2.2 | +12.3 | +6.1 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Boston Celtics incl. games played | +150 | 40.0 | +112 | 47.3 | +7.3 | +18.2 | +12.1 | +6.1 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Houston Rockets incl. games played | -165 | 62.3 | -188 | 65.3 | +3.1 | +4.9 | +8.1 | +4.1 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Golden State Warriors incl. games played | +650 | 13.3 | +404 | 19.9 | +6.5 | +48.9 | +7.5 | +3.8 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Boston Celtics incl. games played | +350 | 22.2 | +258 | 27.9 | +5.7 | +25.6 | +7.3 | +3.7 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Los Angeles Clippers incl. games played | +550 | 15.4 | +387 | 20.5 | +5.2 | +33.5 | +6.1 | +3.0 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | New York Knicks incl. games played | -125 | 55.6 | -133 | 57.1 | +1.6 | +2.9 | +3.6 | +1.8 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Houston Rockets incl. games played | +180 | 35.7 | +164 | 37.9 | +2.2 | +6.1 | +3.4 | +1.7 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Charlotte Hornets incl. games played | +150 | 40.0 | +138 | 41.9 | +1.9 | +4.9 | +3.2 | +1.6 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Boston Celtics incl. games played | +1000 | 9.1 | +756 | 11.7 | +2.6 | +28.5 | +2.8 | +1.4 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Golden State Warriors incl. games played | +2000 | 4.8 | +1414 | 6.6 | +1.8 | +38.7 | +1.9 | +1.0 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Denver Nuggets incl. games played | -330 | 76.7 | -337 | 77.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +1.5 | +0.8 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Houston Rockets incl. games played | +410 | 19.6 | +391 | 20.4 | +0.8 | +3.9 | +0.9 | +0.5 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Orlando Magic incl. games played | -120 | 54.5 | -122 | 55.0 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +0.5 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Los Angeles Clippers incl. games played | +2500 | 3.8 | +2115 | 4.5 | +0.7 | +17.4 | +0.7 | +0.3 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Golden State Warriors incl. games played | +4500 | 2.2 | +3990 | 2.4 | +0.3 | +12.5 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Los Angeles Clippers incl. games played | +10000 | 1.0 | +9246 | 1.1 | +0.1 | +8.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
Best by EV top 20 by expected return per $1
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Golden State Warriors incl. games played | +650 | 13.3 | +404 | 19.9 | +6.5 | +48.9 | +7.5 | +3.8 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Golden State Warriors incl. games played | +2000 | 4.8 | +1414 | 6.6 | +1.8 | +38.7 | +1.9 | +1.0 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Golden State Warriors incl. games played | +170 | 37.0 | -105 | 51.3 | +14.2 | +38.4 | +22.6 | +11.3 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Los Angeles Clippers incl. games played | +550 | 15.4 | +387 | 20.5 | +5.2 | +33.5 | +6.1 | +3.0 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Boston Celtics incl. games played | +1000 | 9.1 | +756 | 11.7 | +2.6 | +28.5 | +2.8 | +1.4 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Boston Celtics incl. games played | +350 | 22.2 | +258 | 27.9 | +5.7 | +25.6 | +7.3 | +3.7 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Boston Celtics incl. games played | +150 | 40.0 | +112 | 47.3 | +7.3 | +18.2 | +12.1 | +6.1 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Los Angeles Clippers incl. games played | +2500 | 3.8 | +2115 | 4.5 | +0.7 | +17.4 | +0.7 | +0.3 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Golden State Warriors incl. games played | +4500 | 2.2 | +3990 | 2.4 | +0.3 | +12.5 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Boston Celtics incl. games played | -210 | 67.7 | -279 | 73.6 | +5.9 | +8.7 | +18.2 | +9.1 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Los Angeles Clippers incl. games played | +10000 | 1.0 | +9246 | 1.1 | +0.1 | +8.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Houston Rockets incl. games played | +180 | 35.7 | +164 | 37.9 | +2.2 | +6.1 | +3.4 | +1.7 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Houston Rockets incl. games played | -165 | 62.3 | -188 | 65.3 | +3.1 | +4.9 | +8.1 | +4.1 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Charlotte Hornets incl. games played | +150 | 40.0 | +138 | 41.9 | +1.9 | +4.9 | +3.2 | +1.6 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Houston Rockets incl. games played | +410 | 19.6 | +391 | 20.4 | +0.8 | +3.9 | +0.9 | +0.5 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Boston Celtics incl. games played | -900 | 90.0 | -1348 | 93.1 | +3.1 | +3.4 | +30.9 | +15.5 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | New York Knicks incl. games played | -125 | 55.6 | -133 | 57.1 | +1.6 | +2.9 | +3.6 | +1.8 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | New York Knicks incl. games played | -550 | 84.6 | -641 | 86.5 | +1.9 | +2.2 | +12.3 | +6.1 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Orlando Magic incl. games played | -120 | 54.5 | -122 | 55.0 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +0.5 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Denver Nuggets incl. games played | -330 | 76.7 | -337 | 77.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +1.5 | +0.8 |
Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins 28 prices · 4 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Boston Celtics incl. games played | +150 | 40.0 | +112 | 47.3 | +7.3 | +18.2 | +12.1 | +6.1 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | San Antonio Spurs incl. games played | -190 | 65.5 | +138 | 42.0 | -23.6 | -36.0 | -68.3 | -34.2 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Houston Rockets incl. games played | +180 | 35.7 | +164 | 37.9 | +2.2 | +6.1 | +3.4 | +1.7 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Oklahoma City Thunder incl. games played | -145 | 59.2 | +188 | 34.8 | -24.4 | -41.3 | -59.9 | -29.9 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | New York Knicks incl. games played | +230 | 30.3 | +231 | 30.3 | -0.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Detroit Pistons incl. games played | +270 | 27.0 | +340 | 22.7 | -4.3 | -16.0 | -5.9 | -3.0 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Denver Nuggets incl. games played | +360 | 21.7 | +376 | 21.0 | -0.7 | -3.4 | -0.9 | -0.5 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Minnesota Timberwolves incl. games played | +390 | 20.4 | +470 | 17.5 | -2.9 | -14.1 | -3.6 | -1.8 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Portland Trail Blazers incl. games played | +370 | 21.3 | +577 | 14.8 | -6.5 | -30.5 | -8.3 | -4.1 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Philadelphia 76ers incl. games played | +220 | 31.2 | +596 | 14.4 | -16.9 | -54.0 | -24.6 | -12.3 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Cleveland Cavaliers incl. games played | +320 | 23.8 | +622 | 13.9 | -10.0 | -41.8 | -13.1 | -6.5 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Toronto Raptors incl. games played | +370 | 21.3 | +626 | 13.8 | -7.5 | -35.3 | -9.5 | -4.8 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Los Angeles Lakers incl. games played | +480 | 17.2 | +675 | 12.9 | -4.3 | -25.2 | -5.3 | -2.6 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Atlanta Hawks incl. games played | +500 | 16.7 | +947 | 9.6 | -7.1 | -42.7 | -8.5 | -4.3 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Orlando Magic incl. games played | +950 | 9.5 | +1120 | 8.2 | -1.3 | -14.0 | -1.5 | -0.7 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Miami Heat incl. games played | +700 | 12.5 | +1309 | 7.1 | -5.4 | -43.2 | -6.2 | -3.1 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Golden State Warriors incl. games played | +2000 | 4.8 | +1414 | 6.6 | +1.8 | +38.7 | +1.9 | +1.0 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Indiana Pacers incl. games played | +650 | 13.3 | +1705 | 5.5 | -7.8 | -58.5 | -9.0 | -4.5 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Phoenix Suns incl. games played | +1700 | 5.6 | +1933 | 4.9 | -0.6 | -11.4 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Charlotte Hornets incl. games played | +1800 | 5.3 | +2152 | 4.4 | -0.8 | -15.6 | -0.9 | -0.4 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Memphis Grizzlies incl. games played | +3000 | 3.2 | +5647 | 1.7 | -1.5 | -46.1 | -1.5 | -0.8 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Los Angeles Clippers incl. games played | +10000 | 1.0 | +9246 | 1.1 | +0.1 | +8.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Washington Wizards incl. games played | +2200 | 4.3 | +12095 | 0.8 | -3.5 | -81.1 | -3.7 | -1.8 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Dallas Mavericks incl. games played | +5000 | 2.0 | +14186 | 0.7 | -1.3 | -64.3 | -1.3 | -0.6 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | New Orleans Pelicans incl. games played | +7000 | 1.4 | +15900 | 0.6 | -0.8 | -55.6 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Utah Jazz incl. games played | +8000 | 1.2 | +19508 | 0.5 | -0.7 | -58.7 | -0.7 | -0.4 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Chicago Bulls incl. games played | +10000 | 1.0 | +23429 | 0.4 | -0.6 | -57.1 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| Win streak | Team 10+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Milwaukee Bucks incl. games played | +10000 | 1.0 | +45355 | 0.2 | -0.8 | -77.8 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins 21 prices · 3 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Boston Celtics incl. games played | +350 | 22.2 | +258 | 27.9 | +5.7 | +25.6 | +7.3 | +3.7 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | San Antonio Spurs incl. games played | +115 | 46.5 | +317 | 24.0 | -22.5 | -48.4 | -42.1 | -21.0 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Houston Rockets incl. games played | +410 | 19.6 | +391 | 20.4 | +0.8 | +3.9 | +0.9 | +0.5 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Oklahoma City Thunder incl. games played | +170 | 37.0 | +476 | 17.4 | -19.7 | -53.1 | -31.3 | -15.6 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | New York Knicks incl. games played | +550 | 15.4 | +563 | 15.1 | -0.3 | -1.9 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Detroit Pistons incl. games played | +650 | 13.3 | +883 | 10.2 | -3.2 | -23.7 | -3.6 | -1.8 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Denver Nuggets incl. games played | +850 | 10.5 | +955 | 9.5 | -1.0 | -9.9 | -1.2 | -0.6 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Minnesota Timberwolves incl. games played | +900 | 10.0 | +1183 | 7.8 | -2.2 | -22.1 | -2.5 | -1.2 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Portland Trail Blazers incl. games played | +850 | 10.5 | +1453 | 6.4 | -4.1 | -38.8 | -4.6 | -2.3 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Philadelphia 76ers incl. games played | +500 | 16.7 | +1591 | 5.9 | -10.8 | -64.5 | -12.9 | -6.5 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Toronto Raptors incl. games played | +800 | 11.1 | +1675 | 5.6 | -5.5 | -49.3 | -6.2 | -3.1 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Cleveland Cavaliers incl. games played | +750 | 11.8 | +1735 | 5.5 | -6.3 | -53.7 | -7.2 | -3.6 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Los Angeles Lakers incl. games played | +1100 | 8.3 | +1818 | 5.2 | -3.1 | -37.4 | -3.4 | -1.7 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Atlanta Hawks incl. games played | +1200 | 7.7 | +2689 | 3.6 | -4.1 | -53.4 | -4.5 | -2.2 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Orlando Magic incl. games played | +2200 | 4.3 | +3075 | 3.1 | -1.2 | -27.6 | -1.3 | -0.6 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Miami Heat incl. games played | +1800 | 5.3 | +3504 | 2.8 | -2.5 | -47.3 | -2.6 | -1.3 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Golden State Warriors incl. games played | +4500 | 2.2 | +3990 | 2.4 | +0.3 | +12.5 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Indiana Pacers incl. games played | +1500 | 6.2 | +5002 | 2.0 | -4.3 | -68.6 | -4.6 | -2.3 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Phoenix Suns incl. games played | +4000 | 2.4 | +5888 | 1.7 | -0.8 | -31.5 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Charlotte Hornets incl. games played | +5000 | 2.0 | +6229 | 1.6 | -0.4 | -19.4 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| Win streak | Team 12+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Washington Wizards incl. games played | +5000 | 2.0 | +42453 | 0.2 | -1.7 | -88.0 | -1.8 | -0.9 |
Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins 17 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Boston Celtics incl. games played | +1000 | 9.1 | +756 | 11.7 | +2.6 | +28.5 | +2.8 | +1.4 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | San Antonio Spurs incl. games played | +300 | 25.0 | +901 | 10.0 | -15.0 | -60.0 | -20.0 | -10.0 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Houston Rockets incl. games played | +1100 | 8.3 | +1165 | 7.9 | -0.4 | -5.1 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Oklahoma City Thunder incl. games played | +450 | 18.2 | +1506 | 6.2 | -12.0 | -65.8 | -14.6 | -7.3 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | New York Knicks incl. games played | +1500 | 6.2 | +1670 | 5.7 | -0.6 | -9.6 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Detroit Pistons incl. games played | +1800 | 5.3 | +2837 | 3.4 | -1.9 | -35.3 | -2.0 | -1.0 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Denver Nuggets incl. games played | +2500 | 3.8 | +3348 | 2.9 | -0.9 | -24.6 | -1.0 | -0.5 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Minnesota Timberwolves incl. games played | +2700 | 3.6 | +4024 | 2.4 | -1.1 | -32.1 | -1.2 | -0.6 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Portland Trail Blazers incl. games played | +2200 | 4.3 | +5028 | 1.9 | -2.4 | -55.1 | -2.5 | -1.3 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Toronto Raptors incl. games played | +2200 | 4.3 | +5800 | 1.7 | -2.7 | -61.0 | -2.8 | -1.4 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Philadelphia 76ers incl. games played | +1500 | 6.2 | +5888 | 1.7 | -4.6 | -73.3 | -4.9 | -2.4 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Cleveland Cavaliers incl. games played | +2200 | 4.3 | +6545 | 1.5 | -2.8 | -65.4 | -3.0 | -1.5 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Los Angeles Lakers incl. games played | +3500 | 2.8 | +6680 | 1.5 | -1.3 | -46.9 | -1.3 | -0.7 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Atlanta Hawks incl. games played | +4000 | 2.4 | +10538 | 0.9 | -1.5 | -61.5 | -1.5 | -0.8 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Orlando Magic incl. games played | +6000 | 1.6 | +11665 | 0.9 | -0.8 | -48.1 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Miami Heat incl. games played | +6000 | 1.6 | +17141 | 0.6 | -1.1 | -64.6 | -1.1 | -0.5 |
| Win streak | Team 15+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Indiana Pacers incl. games played | +5000 | 2.0 | +22372 | 0.4 | -1.5 | -77.3 | -1.5 | -0.8 |
Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins 28 prices · 7 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Houston Rockets incl. games played | -1500 | 93.8 | -1417 | 93.4 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -5.4 | -2.7 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Boston Celtics incl. games played | -900 | 90.0 | -1348 | 93.1 | +3.1 | +3.4 | +30.9 | +15.5 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | New York Knicks incl. games played | -550 | 84.6 | -641 | 86.5 | +1.9 | +2.2 | +12.3 | +6.1 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Detroit Pistons incl. games played | -450 | 81.8 | -392 | 79.7 | -2.1 | -2.6 | -11.7 | -5.9 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Denver Nuggets incl. games played | -330 | 76.7 | -337 | 77.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +1.5 | +0.8 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Portland Trail Blazers incl. games played | -400 | 80.0 | -287 | 74.1 | -5.9 | -7.3 | -29.3 | -14.7 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Minnesota Timberwolves incl. games played | -280 | 73.7 | -275 | 73.3 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -1.3 | -0.6 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Cleveland Cavaliers incl. games played | -380 | 79.2 | -228 | 69.5 | -9.7 | -12.2 | -46.4 | -23.2 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Philadelphia 76ers incl. games played | -475 | 82.6 | -211 | 67.9 | -14.8 | -17.9 | -84.8 | -42.4 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Toronto Raptors incl. games played | -280 | 73.7 | -210 | 67.7 | -6.0 | -8.1 | -22.8 | -11.4 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Los Angeles Lakers incl. games played | -290 | 74.4 | -209 | 67.6 | -6.7 | -9.1 | -26.3 | -13.1 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Atlanta Hawks incl. games played | -220 | 68.8 | -138 | 58.1 | -10.7 | -15.5 | -34.2 | -17.1 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Orlando Magic incl. games played | -120 | 54.5 | -122 | 55.0 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +0.5 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Miami Heat incl. games played | -175 | 63.6 | -111 | 52.5 | -11.1 | -17.5 | -30.5 | -15.3 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Golden State Warriors incl. games played | +170 | 37.0 | -105 | 51.3 | +14.2 | +38.4 | +22.6 | +11.3 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Indiana Pacers incl. games played | -170 | 63.0 | +117 | 46.1 | -16.8 | -26.8 | -45.5 | -22.7 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Phoenix Suns incl. games played | +130 | 43.5 | +132 | 43.1 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Charlotte Hornets incl. games played | +150 | 40.0 | +138 | 41.9 | +1.9 | +4.9 | +3.2 | +1.6 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Memphis Grizzlies incl. games played | +150 | 40.0 | +209 | 32.3 | -7.7 | -19.1 | -12.8 | -6.4 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Los Angeles Clippers incl. games played | +550 | 15.4 | +387 | 20.5 | +5.2 | +33.5 | +6.1 | +3.0 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Dallas Mavericks incl. games played | +310 | 24.4 | +579 | 14.7 | -9.7 | -39.6 | -12.8 | -6.4 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Washington Wizards incl. games played | +220 | 31.2 | +623 | 13.8 | -17.4 | -55.7 | -25.3 | -12.7 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | New Orleans Pelicans incl. games played | +450 | 18.2 | +682 | 12.8 | -5.4 | -29.6 | -6.6 | -3.3 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Utah Jazz incl. games played | +450 | 18.2 | +741 | 11.9 | -6.3 | -34.6 | -7.7 | -3.8 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Chicago Bulls incl. games played | +700 | 12.5 | +873 | 10.3 | -2.2 | -17.8 | -2.5 | -1.3 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Brooklyn Nets incl. games played | +1000 | 9.1 | +1100 | 8.3 | -0.8 | -8.3 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Milwaukee Bucks incl. games played | +700 | 12.5 | +1319 | 7.0 | -5.5 | -43.6 | -6.2 | -3.1 |
| Win streak | Team 6+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Sacramento Kings incl. games played | +2700 | 3.6 | +4007 | 2.4 | -1.1 | -31.8 | -1.2 | -0.6 |
Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins 29 prices · 5 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Boston Celtics incl. games played | -210 | 67.7 | -279 | 73.6 | +5.9 | +8.7 | +18.2 | +9.1 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | San Antonio Spurs incl. games played | -650 | 86.7 | -223 | 69.0 | -17.7 | -20.4 | -132.4 | -66.2 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Houston Rockets incl. games played | -165 | 62.3 | -188 | 65.3 | +3.1 | +4.9 | +8.1 | +4.1 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Oklahoma City Thunder incl. games played | -390 | 79.6 | -152 | 60.3 | -19.3 | -24.2 | -94.4 | -47.2 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | New York Knicks incl. games played | -125 | 55.6 | -133 | 57.1 | +1.6 | +2.9 | +3.6 | +1.8 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Detroit Pistons incl. games played | -105 | 51.2 | +115 | 46.4 | -4.8 | -9.4 | -9.8 | -4.9 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Denver Nuggets incl. games played | +110 | 47.6 | +120 | 45.4 | -2.2 | -4.6 | -4.2 | -2.1 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Minnesota Timberwolves incl. games played | +140 | 41.7 | +154 | 39.3 | -2.3 | -5.6 | -4.0 | -2.0 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Portland Trail Blazers incl. games played | +120 | 45.5 | +172 | 36.8 | -8.7 | -19.1 | -15.9 | -8.0 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Cleveland Cavaliers incl. games played | +115 | 46.5 | +202 | 33.1 | -13.4 | -28.9 | -25.1 | -12.6 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Toronto Raptors incl. games played | +135 | 42.6 | +204 | 32.9 | -9.6 | -22.6 | -16.8 | -8.4 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Philadelphia 76ers incl. games played | -115 | 53.5 | +205 | 32.8 | -20.7 | -38.6 | -44.4 | -22.2 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Los Angeles Lakers incl. games played | +160 | 38.5 | +223 | 31.0 | -7.5 | -19.4 | -12.1 | -6.1 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Atlanta Hawks incl. games played | +180 | 35.7 | +306 | 24.6 | -11.1 | -31.0 | -17.2 | -8.6 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Orlando Magic incl. games played | +320 | 23.8 | +353 | 22.1 | -1.7 | -7.2 | -2.3 | -1.1 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Golden State Warriors incl. games played | +650 | 13.3 | +404 | 19.9 | +6.5 | +48.9 | +7.5 | +3.8 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Miami Heat incl. games played | +250 | 28.6 | +412 | 19.5 | -9.0 | -31.6 | -12.7 | -6.3 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Indiana Pacers incl. games played | +260 | 27.8 | +541 | 15.6 | -12.2 | -43.8 | -16.9 | -8.4 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Phoenix Suns incl. games played | +550 | 15.4 | +571 | 14.9 | -0.5 | -3.2 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Charlotte Hornets incl. games played | +600 | 14.3 | +636 | 13.6 | -0.7 | -4.9 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Memphis Grizzlies incl. games played | +600 | 14.3 | +933 | 9.7 | -4.6 | -32.2 | -5.4 | -2.7 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Los Angeles Clippers incl. games played | +2500 | 3.8 | +2115 | 4.5 | +0.7 | +17.4 | +0.7 | +0.3 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Washington Wizards incl. games played | +800 | 11.1 | +3152 | 3.1 | -8.0 | -72.3 | -9.0 | -4.5 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Dallas Mavericks incl. games played | +1400 | 6.7 | +3301 | 2.9 | -3.7 | -55.9 | -4.0 | -2.0 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | New Orleans Pelicans incl. games played | +2000 | 4.8 | +3868 | 2.5 | -2.2 | -47.1 | -2.4 | -1.2 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Utah Jazz incl. games played | +2000 | 4.8 | +4335 | 2.3 | -2.5 | -52.6 | -2.6 | -1.3 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Chicago Bulls incl. games played | +3300 | 2.9 | +5320 | 1.8 | -1.1 | -37.3 | -1.1 | -0.6 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Brooklyn Nets incl. games played | +5000 | 2.0 | +7068 | 1.4 | -0.6 | -28.9 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| Win streak | Team 8+ Consecutive Regular Season Wins | Milwaukee Bucks incl. games played | +3000 | 3.2 | +8909 | 1.1 | -2.1 | -65.6 | -2.2 | -1.1 |
Simulated season by team means over the simulated seasons
| Team | Wins | ± sd | Seed | Play-in % | Playoffs % | 2nd rd % | Conf finals % | Finals % | Title % | Playoff net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 54.3 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 8 | 98 | 82 | 60 | 42.1 | 28.7 | +9.2 |
| BOS | 56.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 4 | 98 | 79 | 55 | 35.0 | 17.5 | +7.3 |
| SAS | 54.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 7 | 98 | 72 | 42 | 22.1 | 12.5 | +6.9 |
| NYK | 51.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 14 | 94 | 65 | 39 | 20.6 | 8.8 | +5.9 |
| HOU | 55.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 7 | 98 | 62 | 29 | 11.0 | 5.5 | +4.8 |
| TOR | 46.9 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 32 | 82 | 45 | 22 | 10.7 | 4.1 | +4.4 |
| PHI | 47.8 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 28 | 85 | 47 | 23 | 10.6 | 4.0 | +4.3 |
| DET | 51.1 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 16 | 92 | 54 | 25 | 10.7 | 3.8 | +4.0 |
| DEN | 48.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 29 | 89 | 45 | 19 | 7.4 | 3.5 | +4.3 |
| MIN | 48.4 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 29 | 89 | 43 | 18 | 6.8 | 3.3 | +4.2 |
| POR | 48.0 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 31 | 87 | 37 | 14 | 4.9 | 2.3 | +3.3 |
| LAL | 47.2 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 35 | 85 | 31 | 11 | 3.5 | 1.5 | +2.5 |
| CLE | 46.9 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 33 | 80 | 34 | 13 | 4.7 | 1.3 | +2.2 |
| GSW | 41.2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 58 | 59 | 16 | 5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | +1.4 |
| ATL | 43.4 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 46 | 63 | 20 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | +0.6 |
| MIA | 40.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 50 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| IND | 40.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 50 | 46 | 14 | 4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | +0.5 |
| CHA | 40.7 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 50 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -0.4 |
| ORL | 42.5 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 47 | 56 | 14 | 4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -0.7 |
| PHX | 39.5 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 58 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -3.0 |
| MEM | 34.8 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 44 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -3.5 |
| WAS | 29.1 | 6.6 | 12.5 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -5.2 |
| LAC | 32.7 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 33 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -4.5 |
| BKN | 25.7 | 6.5 | 13.4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -6.6 |
| DAL | 31.4 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -5.3 |
| CHI | 27.8 | 6.6 | 12.8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -6.5 |
| UTA | 29.1 | 6.6 | 12.3 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -6.5 |
| NOP | 28.9 | 6.7 | 12.3 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -6.1 |
| MIL | 25.2 | 6.3 | 13.5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -7.4 |
| SAC | 20.5 | 6.0 | 14.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -10.5 |
Each simulated season draws a fat-tailed rating shock per team, then plays every remaining game with that date's team nets (who is out, from the minutes model) + 2.3 home court, sd 12.5; the 2 unscheduled games sit in the Dec 4-11 Cup window. Standings: wins, 2-team head-to-head, conference record, point differential. NBA Cup: FanDuel's groups, group record / head-to-head / point differential, best 2nd place per conference as wild card. Play-in, then best-of-7 series with home court to the better seed; playoff nets use DARKO's market playoff rating, a tighter rotation, and anyone back from injury by 2027-04-18. Seeds and division places are regular-season standings. "More wins than" ties are treated as a push and most / fewest wins ties as dead heats (check FanDuel's rules). Kelly = (p x decimal - 1) / (decimal - 1). Not priced (not team outcomes): Clutch Player Of The Year (1), Coach Of The Year (1), Defensive Player Of The Year (1), Eastern Conference Finals Mvp (1), Finals Mvp (1), In Season Tournament Mvp (1), Most Improved Player (1), Most Valuable Player (1), Rookie Of The Year (1), Sixth Man Of The Year (1), Western Conference Finals Mvp (1).