NBA futures: sim fair value vs FanDuel
Simulated seasons
20,000
ran 2026-10-28 15:40 · 1.7s
FanDuel prices
2,147
pulled Oct 28 3:40 PM ET · 727 +EV
Team uncertainty
±2.5 net
Student-t, 5 df, per team per season
Shown
7
+EV bets passing the filters
Best by Kelly top 7 by full-Kelly fraction · ½ Kelly alongside
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Boston Celtics | +750 | 11.8 | +586 | 14.6 | +2.8 | +23.9 | +3.2 | +1.6 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Houston Rockets | +1200 | 7.7 | +917 | 9.8 | +2.1 | +27.9 | +2.3 | +1.2 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | New York Knicks | +1500 | 6.2 | +1281 | 7.2 | +1.0 | +15.8 | +1.1 | +0.5 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Golden State Warriors | +12500 | 0.8 | +8447 | 1.2 | +0.4 | +47.4 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Minnesota Timberwolves | +2200 | 4.3 | +2055 | 4.6 | +0.3 | +6.7 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Orlando Magic | +4000 | 2.4 | +3761 | 2.6 | +0.2 | +6.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Denver Nuggets | +1700 | 5.6 | +1695 | 5.6 | +0.0 | +0.3 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
Best by EV top 7 by expected return per $1
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Golden State Warriors | +12500 | 0.8 | +8447 | 1.2 | +0.4 | +47.4 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Houston Rockets | +1200 | 7.7 | +917 | 9.8 | +2.1 | +27.9 | +2.3 | +1.2 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Boston Celtics | +750 | 11.8 | +586 | 14.6 | +2.8 | +23.9 | +3.2 | +1.6 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | New York Knicks | +1500 | 6.2 | +1281 | 7.2 | +1.0 | +15.8 | +1.1 | +0.5 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Minnesota Timberwolves | +2200 | 4.3 | +2055 | 4.6 | +0.3 | +6.7 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Orlando Magic | +4000 | 2.4 | +3761 | 2.6 | +0.2 | +6.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Denver Nuggets | +1700 | 5.6 | +1695 | 5.6 | +0.0 | +0.3 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
2026 NBA Cup Winner 30 prices · 7 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Boston Celtics | +750 | 11.8 | +586 | 14.6 | +2.8 | +23.9 | +3.2 | +1.6 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | San Antonio Spurs | +430 | 18.9 | +846 | 10.6 | -8.3 | -44.0 | -10.2 | -5.1 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Houston Rockets | +1200 | 7.7 | +917 | 9.8 | +2.1 | +27.9 | +2.3 | +1.2 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Oklahoma City Thunder | +500 | 16.7 | +978 | 9.3 | -7.4 | -44.4 | -8.9 | -4.4 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | New York Knicks | +1500 | 6.2 | +1281 | 7.2 | +1.0 | +15.8 | +1.1 | +0.5 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Detroit Pistons | +1000 | 9.1 | +1308 | 7.1 | -2.0 | -21.9 | -2.2 | -1.1 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Denver Nuggets | +1700 | 5.6 | +1695 | 5.6 | +0.0 | +0.3 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Minnesota Timberwolves | +2200 | 4.3 | +2055 | 4.6 | +0.3 | +6.7 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Toronto Raptors | +1600 | 5.9 | +2093 | 4.6 | -1.3 | -22.5 | -1.4 | -0.7 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Portland Trail Blazers | +2000 | 4.8 | +2581 | 3.7 | -1.0 | -21.7 | -1.1 | -0.5 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Los Angeles Lakers | +2700 | 3.6 | +2953 | 3.3 | -0.3 | -8.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Philadelphia 76ers | +1700 | 5.6 | +3173 | 3.1 | -2.5 | -45.0 | -2.6 | -1.3 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Cleveland Cavaliers | +2000 | 4.8 | +3465 | 2.8 | -2.0 | -41.1 | -2.1 | -1.0 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Orlando Magic | +4000 | 2.4 | +3761 | 2.6 | +0.2 | +6.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Atlanta Hawks | +2500 | 3.8 | +4146 | 2.4 | -1.5 | -38.8 | -1.6 | -0.8 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Miami Heat | +4500 | 2.2 | +5979 | 1.6 | -0.5 | -24.3 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Charlotte Hornets | +6500 | 1.5 | +6523 | 1.5 | -0.0 | -0.3 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Indiana Pacers | +6000 | 1.6 | +8268 | 1.2 | -0.4 | -27.1 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Golden State Warriors | +12500 | 0.8 | +8447 | 1.2 | +0.4 | +47.4 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Phoenix Suns | +8000 | 1.2 | +9752 | 1.0 | -0.2 | -17.8 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Memphis Grizzlies | +12500 | 0.8 | +19702 | 0.5 | -0.3 | -36.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Washington Wizards | +12500 | 0.8 | +34383 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -63.5 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Utah Jazz | +25000 | 0.4 | +36937 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -32.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Dallas Mavericks | +17500 | 0.6 | +39116 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -55.1 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Los Angeles Clippers | +30000 | 0.3 | +41567 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -27.8 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Brooklyn Nets | +40000 | 0.2 | +45355 | 0.2 | -0.0 | -11.8 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | New Orleans Pelicans | +25000 | 0.4 | +52532 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -52.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Chicago Bulls | +35000 | 0.3 | +60506 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -42.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Milwaukee Bucks | +35000 | 0.3 | +95138 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -63.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| NBA Cup winner | 2026 NBA Cup Winner | Sacramento Kings | +100000 | 0.1 | +249900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -60.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
Simulated season by team means over the simulated seasons
| Team | Wins | ± sd | Seed | Play-in % | Playoffs % | 2nd rd % | Conf finals % | Finals % | Title % | Playoff net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 54.3 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 8 | 98 | 82 | 60 | 42.1 | 28.7 | +9.2 |
| BOS | 56.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 4 | 98 | 79 | 55 | 35.0 | 17.5 | +7.3 |
| SAS | 54.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 7 | 98 | 72 | 42 | 22.1 | 12.5 | +6.9 |
| NYK | 51.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 14 | 94 | 65 | 39 | 20.6 | 8.8 | +5.9 |
| HOU | 55.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 7 | 98 | 62 | 29 | 11.0 | 5.5 | +4.8 |
| TOR | 46.9 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 32 | 82 | 45 | 22 | 10.7 | 4.1 | +4.4 |
| PHI | 47.8 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 28 | 85 | 47 | 23 | 10.6 | 4.0 | +4.3 |
| DET | 51.1 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 16 | 92 | 54 | 25 | 10.7 | 3.8 | +4.0 |
| DEN | 48.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 29 | 89 | 45 | 19 | 7.4 | 3.5 | +4.3 |
| MIN | 48.4 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 29 | 89 | 43 | 18 | 6.8 | 3.3 | +4.2 |
| POR | 48.0 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 31 | 87 | 37 | 14 | 4.9 | 2.3 | +3.3 |
| LAL | 47.2 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 35 | 85 | 31 | 11 | 3.5 | 1.5 | +2.5 |
| CLE | 46.9 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 33 | 80 | 34 | 13 | 4.7 | 1.3 | +2.2 |
| GSW | 41.2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 58 | 59 | 16 | 5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | +1.4 |
| ATL | 43.4 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 46 | 63 | 20 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | +0.6 |
| MIA | 40.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 50 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| IND | 40.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 50 | 46 | 14 | 4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | +0.5 |
| CHA | 40.7 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 50 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -0.4 |
| ORL | 42.5 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 47 | 56 | 14 | 4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -0.7 |
| PHX | 39.5 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 58 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -3.0 |
| MEM | 34.8 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 44 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -3.5 |
| WAS | 29.1 | 6.6 | 12.5 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -5.2 |
| LAC | 32.7 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 33 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -4.5 |
| BKN | 25.7 | 6.5 | 13.4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -6.6 |
| DAL | 31.4 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -5.3 |
| CHI | 27.8 | 6.6 | 12.8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -6.5 |
| UTA | 29.1 | 6.6 | 12.3 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -6.5 |
| NOP | 28.9 | 6.7 | 12.3 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -6.1 |
| MIL | 25.2 | 6.3 | 13.5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -7.4 |
| SAC | 20.5 | 6.0 | 14.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -10.5 |
Each simulated season draws a fat-tailed rating shock per team, then plays every remaining game with that date's team nets (who is out, from the minutes model) + 2.3 home court, sd 12.5; the 2 unscheduled games sit in the Dec 4-11 Cup window. Standings: wins, 2-team head-to-head, conference record, point differential. NBA Cup: FanDuel's groups, group record / head-to-head / point differential, best 2nd place per conference as wild card. Play-in, then best-of-7 series with home court to the better seed; playoff nets use DARKO's market playoff rating, a tighter rotation, and anyone back from injury by 2027-04-18. Seeds and division places are regular-season standings. "More wins than" ties are treated as a push and most / fewest wins ties as dead heats (check FanDuel's rules). Kelly = (p x decimal - 1) / (decimal - 1). Not priced (not team outcomes): Clutch Player Of The Year (1), Coach Of The Year (1), Defensive Player Of The Year (1), Eastern Conference Finals Mvp (1), Finals Mvp (1), In Season Tournament Mvp (1), Most Improved Player (1), Most Valuable Player (1), Rookie Of The Year (1), Sixth Man Of The Year (1), Western Conference Finals Mvp (1).