Futures

NBA futures: sim fair value vs FanDuel

Simulated seasons

20,000

ran 2026-10-28 15:40 · 1.7s

FanDuel prices

2,147

pulled Oct 28 3:40 PM ET · 727 +EV

Team uncertainty

±2.5 net

Student-t, 5 df, per team per season

Shown

+EV bets passing the filters

Best by Kelly top 42 by full-Kelly fraction · ½ Kelly alongside

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Southeast Division 5th Place	Washington Wizards	-115	53.5	-287	74.1	+20.6	+38.6	+44.4	+22.2
Division place	Pacific Division 5th Place	Sacramento Kings	-500	83.3	-773	88.5	+5.2	+6.3	+31.3	+15.6
Division place	Southwest Division Winner	Houston Rockets	+210	32.3	-111	52.6	+20.4	+63.2	+30.1	+15.0
Division place	Atlantic Division Winner	Boston Celtics	+140	41.7	-141	58.5	+16.9	+40.5	+28.9	+14.5
Division place	Southwest Division 2nd Place	San Antonio Spurs	+220	31.2	-101	50.3	+19.1	+61.0	+27.7	+13.9
Division place	Northwest Division 5th Place	Utah Jazz	-900	90.0	-1279	92.8	+2.8	+3.1	+27.5	+13.8
Division place	Atlantic Division 4th Place	Philadelphia 76ers	+330	23.3	+190	34.4	+11.2	+48.0	+14.6	+7.3
Division place	Central Division Winner	Detroit Pistons	-130	56.5	-165	62.3	+5.8	+10.2	+13.3	+6.7
Division place	Pacific Division Winner	Golden State Warriors	+700	12.5	+397	20.1	+7.6	+61.1	+8.7	+4.4
Division place	Atlantic Division 2nd Place	New York Knicks	+250	28.6	+188	34.7	+6.2	+21.6	+8.6	+4.3
Division place	Central Division 2nd Place	Cleveland Cavaliers	+135	42.6	+112	47.2	+4.7	+11.0	+8.2	+4.1
Division place	Southeast Division Winner	Orlando Magic	+340	22.7	+256	28.1	+5.4	+23.6	+6.9	+3.5
Division place	Atlantic Division 3rd Place	Philadelphia 76ers	+260	27.8	+212	32.0	+4.3	+15.3	+5.9	+3.0
Division place	Northwest Division Winner	Denver Nuggets	+800	11.1	+513	16.3	+5.2	+46.7	+5.8	+2.9
Division place	Central Division 3rd Place	Indiana Pacers	-120	54.5	-133	57.1	+2.6	+4.7	+5.6	+2.8
Division place	Pacific Division 4th Place	Los Angeles Clippers	-120	54.5	-133	57.1	+2.6	+4.7	+5.6	+2.8
Division place	Southwest Division 5th Place	Dallas Mavericks	+240	29.4	+203	33.0	+3.6	+12.3	+5.1	+2.6
Division place	Southeast Division 4th Place	Miami Heat	+350	22.2	+285	26.0	+3.8	+16.9	+4.8	+2.4
Division place	Southeast Division Winner	Charlotte Hornets	+550	15.4	+414	19.4	+4.1	+26.4	+4.8	+2.4
Division place	Northwest Division Winner	Minnesota Timberwolves	+700	12.5	+515	16.3	+3.8	+30.1	+4.3	+2.2
Division place	Northwest Division 3rd Place	Oklahoma City Thunder	+850	10.5	+597	14.3	+3.8	+36.3	+4.3	+2.1
Division place	Southwest Division 3rd Place	Memphis Grizzlies	+110	47.6	+101	49.8	+2.2	+4.6	+4.2	+2.1
Division place	Pacific Division 2nd Place	Golden State Warriors	+200	33.3	+178	35.9	+2.6	+7.8	+3.9	+1.9
Division place	Pacific Division 3rd Place	Phoenix Suns	+200	33.3	+181	35.6	+2.3	+6.9	+3.5	+1.7
Division place	Northwest Division 4th Place	Oklahoma City Thunder	+2000	4.8	+1237	7.5	+2.7	+57.1	+2.9	+1.4
Division place	Northwest Division 2nd Place	Oklahoma City Thunder	+330	23.3	+293	25.4	+2.2	+9.3	+2.8	+1.4
Division place	Pacific Division 4th Place	Phoenix Suns	+550	15.4	+466	17.7	+2.3	+14.8	+2.7	+1.3
Division place	Southeast Division 3rd Place	Atlanta Hawks	+410	19.6	+364	21.6	+2.0	+10.0	+2.4	+1.2
Division place	Northwest Division 4th Place	Portland Trail Blazers	+240	29.4	+222	31.0	+1.6	+5.6	+2.3	+1.2
Division place	Central Division 5th Place	Milwaukee Bucks	-150	60.0	-156	60.9	+0.9	+1.5	+2.2	+1.1
Division place	Pacific Division 2nd Place	Los Angeles Lakers	+330	23.3	+302	24.9	+1.6	+7.0	+2.1	+1.1
Division place	Southeast Division 2nd Place	Orlando Magic	+300	25.0	+283	26.1	+1.1	+4.6	+1.5	+0.8
Division place	Pacific Division 3rd Place	Los Angeles Lakers	+1000	9.1	+873	10.3	+1.2	+13.0	+1.3	+0.7
Division place	Central Division 4th Place	Chicago Bulls	-110	52.4	-113	53.0	+0.6	+1.2	+1.3	+0.7
Division place	Southeast Division 2nd Place	Charlotte Hornets	+350	22.2	+331	23.2	+1.0	+4.4	+1.3	+0.6
Division place	Southeast Division 4th Place	Atlanta Hawks	+650	13.3	+600	14.3	+0.9	+7.1	+1.1	+0.5
Division place	Pacific Division 4th Place	Los Angeles Lakers	+4000	2.4	+3378	2.9	+0.4	+17.9	+0.4	+0.2
Division place	Atlantic Division 3rd Place	Toronto Raptors	+230	30.3	+228	30.5	+0.2	+0.6	+0.3	+0.1
Division place	Atlantic Division 5th Place	Philadelphia 76ers	+7500	1.3	+7043	1.4	+0.1	+6.4	+0.1	+0.0
Division place	Southeast Division 3rd Place	Miami Heat	+290	25.6	+289	25.7	+0.0	+0.2	+0.1	+0.0
Division place	Southwest Division 3rd Place	New Orleans Pelicans	+470	17.5	+470	17.6	+0.0	+0.1	+0.0	+0.0
Division place	Northwest Division 5th Place	Oklahoma City Thunder	+20000	0.5	+19900	0.5	+0.0	+0.5	+0.0	+0.0

Best by EV top 42 by expected return per $1

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Southwest Division Winner	Houston Rockets	+210	32.3	-111	52.6	+20.4	+63.2	+30.1	+15.0
Division place	Pacific Division Winner	Golden State Warriors	+700	12.5	+397	20.1	+7.6	+61.1	+8.7	+4.4
Division place	Southwest Division 2nd Place	San Antonio Spurs	+220	31.2	-101	50.3	+19.1	+61.0	+27.7	+13.9
Division place	Northwest Division 4th Place	Oklahoma City Thunder	+2000	4.8	+1237	7.5	+2.7	+57.1	+2.9	+1.4
Division place	Atlantic Division 4th Place	Philadelphia 76ers	+330	23.3	+190	34.4	+11.2	+48.0	+14.6	+7.3
Division place	Northwest Division Winner	Denver Nuggets	+800	11.1	+513	16.3	+5.2	+46.7	+5.8	+2.9
Division place	Atlantic Division Winner	Boston Celtics	+140	41.7	-141	58.5	+16.9	+40.5	+28.9	+14.5
Division place	Southeast Division 5th Place	Washington Wizards	-115	53.5	-287	74.1	+20.6	+38.6	+44.4	+22.2
Division place	Northwest Division 3rd Place	Oklahoma City Thunder	+850	10.5	+597	14.3	+3.8	+36.3	+4.3	+2.1
Division place	Northwest Division Winner	Minnesota Timberwolves	+700	12.5	+515	16.3	+3.8	+30.1	+4.3	+2.2
Division place	Southeast Division Winner	Charlotte Hornets	+550	15.4	+414	19.4	+4.1	+26.4	+4.8	+2.4
Division place	Southeast Division Winner	Orlando Magic	+340	22.7	+256	28.1	+5.4	+23.6	+6.9	+3.5
Division place	Atlantic Division 2nd Place	New York Knicks	+250	28.6	+188	34.7	+6.2	+21.6	+8.6	+4.3
Division place	Pacific Division 4th Place	Los Angeles Lakers	+4000	2.4	+3378	2.9	+0.4	+17.9	+0.4	+0.2
Division place	Southeast Division 4th Place	Miami Heat	+350	22.2	+285	26.0	+3.8	+16.9	+4.8	+2.4
Division place	Atlantic Division 3rd Place	Philadelphia 76ers	+260	27.8	+212	32.0	+4.3	+15.3	+5.9	+3.0
Division place	Pacific Division 4th Place	Phoenix Suns	+550	15.4	+466	17.7	+2.3	+14.8	+2.7	+1.3
Division place	Pacific Division 3rd Place	Los Angeles Lakers	+1000	9.1	+873	10.3	+1.2	+13.0	+1.3	+0.7
Division place	Southwest Division 5th Place	Dallas Mavericks	+240	29.4	+203	33.0	+3.6	+12.3	+5.1	+2.6
Division place	Central Division 2nd Place	Cleveland Cavaliers	+135	42.6	+112	47.2	+4.7	+11.0	+8.2	+4.1
Division place	Central Division Winner	Detroit Pistons	-130	56.5	-165	62.3	+5.8	+10.2	+13.3	+6.7
Division place	Southeast Division 3rd Place	Atlanta Hawks	+410	19.6	+364	21.6	+2.0	+10.0	+2.4	+1.2
Division place	Northwest Division 2nd Place	Oklahoma City Thunder	+330	23.3	+293	25.4	+2.2	+9.3	+2.8	+1.4
Division place	Pacific Division 2nd Place	Golden State Warriors	+200	33.3	+178	35.9	+2.6	+7.8	+3.9	+1.9
Division place	Southeast Division 4th Place	Atlanta Hawks	+650	13.3	+600	14.3	+0.9	+7.1	+1.1	+0.5
Division place	Pacific Division 2nd Place	Los Angeles Lakers	+330	23.3	+302	24.9	+1.6	+7.0	+2.1	+1.1
Division place	Pacific Division 3rd Place	Phoenix Suns	+200	33.3	+181	35.6	+2.3	+6.9	+3.5	+1.7
Division place	Atlantic Division 5th Place	Philadelphia 76ers	+7500	1.3	+7043	1.4	+0.1	+6.4	+0.1	+0.0
Division place	Pacific Division 5th Place	Sacramento Kings	-500	83.3	-773	88.5	+5.2	+6.3	+31.3	+15.6
Division place	Northwest Division 4th Place	Portland Trail Blazers	+240	29.4	+222	31.0	+1.6	+5.6	+2.3	+1.2
Division place	Pacific Division 4th Place	Los Angeles Clippers	-120	54.5	-133	57.1	+2.6	+4.7	+5.6	+2.8
Division place	Central Division 3rd Place	Indiana Pacers	-120	54.5	-133	57.1	+2.6	+4.7	+5.6	+2.8
Division place	Southwest Division 3rd Place	Memphis Grizzlies	+110	47.6	+101	49.8	+2.2	+4.6	+4.2	+2.1
Division place	Southeast Division 2nd Place	Orlando Magic	+300	25.0	+283	26.1	+1.1	+4.6	+1.5	+0.8
Division place	Southeast Division 2nd Place	Charlotte Hornets	+350	22.2	+331	23.2	+1.0	+4.4	+1.3	+0.6
Division place	Northwest Division 5th Place	Utah Jazz	-900	90.0	-1279	92.8	+2.8	+3.1	+27.5	+13.8
Division place	Central Division 5th Place	Milwaukee Bucks	-150	60.0	-156	60.9	+0.9	+1.5	+2.2	+1.1
Division place	Central Division 4th Place	Chicago Bulls	-110	52.4	-113	53.0	+0.6	+1.2	+1.3	+0.7
Division place	Atlantic Division 3rd Place	Toronto Raptors	+230	30.3	+228	30.5	+0.2	+0.6	+0.3	+0.1
Division place	Northwest Division 5th Place	Oklahoma City Thunder	+20000	0.5	+19900	0.5	+0.0	+0.5	+0.0	+0.0
Division place	Southeast Division 3rd Place	Miami Heat	+290	25.6	+289	25.7	+0.0	+0.2	+0.1	+0.0
Division place	Southwest Division 3rd Place	New Orleans Pelicans	+470	17.5	+470	17.6	+0.0	+0.1	+0.0	+0.0

Atlantic Division 2nd Place 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Atlantic Division 2nd Place	New York Knicks	+250	28.6	+188	34.7	+6.2	+21.6	+8.6	+4.3
Division place	Atlantic Division 2nd Place	Boston Celtics	+210	32.3	+298	25.1	-7.1	-22.0	-10.5	-5.2
Division place	Atlantic Division 2nd Place	Philadelphia 76ers	+240	29.4	+363	21.6	-7.8	-26.5	-11.0	-5.5
Division place	Atlantic Division 2nd Place	Toronto Raptors	+340	22.7	+445	18.4	-4.4	-19.2	-5.6	-2.8
Division place	Atlantic Division 2nd Place	Brooklyn Nets	+40000	0.2	+73974	0.1	-0.1	-45.9	-0.1	-0.1

Atlantic Division 3rd Place 5 prices · 2 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Atlantic Division 3rd Place	Philadelphia 76ers	+260	27.8	+212	32.0	+4.3	+15.3	+5.9	+3.0
Division place	Atlantic Division 3rd Place	Toronto Raptors	+230	30.3	+228	30.5	+0.2	+0.6	+0.3	+0.1
Division place	Atlantic Division 3rd Place	New York Knicks	+210	32.3	+283	26.1	-6.1	-19.0	-9.1	-4.5
Division place	Atlantic Division 3rd Place	Boston Celtics	+330	23.3	+819	10.9	-12.4	-53.2	-16.1	-8.1
Division place	Atlantic Division 3rd Place	Brooklyn Nets	+10000	1.0	+21405	0.5	-0.5	-53.0	-0.5	-0.3

Atlantic Division 4th Place 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Atlantic Division 4th Place	Toronto Raptors	+145	40.8	+146	40.6	-0.2	-0.5	-0.3	-0.2
Division place	Atlantic Division 4th Place	Philadelphia 76ers	+330	23.3	+190	34.4	+11.2	+48.0	+14.6	+7.3
Division place	Atlantic Division 4th Place	New York Knicks	+240	29.4	+503	16.6	-12.8	-43.6	-18.2	-9.1
Division place	Atlantic Division 4th Place	Boston Celtics	+500	16.7	+1785	5.3	-11.4	-68.2	-13.6	-6.8
Division place	Atlantic Division 4th Place	Brooklyn Nets	+2200	4.3	+3141	3.1	-1.3	-29.0	-1.3	-0.7

Atlantic Division 5th Place 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Atlantic Division 5th Place	Brooklyn Nets	-7000	98.6	-2553	96.2	-2.4	-2.4	-167.7	-83.8
Division place	Atlantic Division 5th Place	Toronto Raptors	+3500	2.8	+5979	1.6	-1.1	-40.8	-1.2	-0.6
Division place	Atlantic Division 5th Place	Philadelphia 76ers	+7500	1.3	+7043	1.4	+0.1	+6.4	+0.1	+0.0
Division place	Atlantic Division 5th Place	New York Knicks	+7000	1.4	+16707	0.6	-0.8	-57.8	-0.8	-0.4
Division place	Atlantic Division 5th Place	Boston Celtics	+17500	0.6	+76823	0.1	-0.4	-77.1	-0.4	-0.2

Atlantic Division Winner 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Atlantic Division Winner	Boston Celtics	+140	41.7	-141	58.5	+16.9	+40.5	+28.9	+14.5
Division place	Atlantic Division Winner	New York Knicks	+350	22.2	+355	22.0	-0.2	-1.1	-0.3	-0.2
Division place	Atlantic Division Winner	Philadelphia 76ers	+220	31.2	+851	10.5	-20.7	-66.4	-30.2	-15.1
Division place	Atlantic Division Winner	Toronto Raptors	+470	17.5	+1024	8.9	-8.6	-49.3	-10.5	-5.2
Division place	Atlantic Division Winner	Brooklyn Nets	+50000	0.2	+117547	0.1	-0.1	-57.4	-0.1	-0.1

Central Division 2nd Place 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Central Division 2nd Place	Cleveland Cavaliers	+135	42.6	+112	47.2	+4.7	+11.0	+8.2	+4.1
Division place	Central Division 2nd Place	Detroit Pistons	+175	36.4	+257	28.0	-8.3	-23.0	-13.1	-6.6
Division place	Central Division 2nd Place	Indiana Pacers	+230	30.3	+340	22.7	-7.6	-25.1	-10.9	-5.5
Division place	Central Division 2nd Place	Chicago Bulls	+4500	2.2	+6436	1.5	-0.6	-29.6	-0.7	-0.3
Division place	Central Division 2nd Place	Milwaukee Bucks	+5500	1.8	+19508	0.5	-1.3	-71.4	-1.3	-0.6

Central Division 3rd Place 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Central Division 3rd Place	Indiana Pacers	-120	54.5	-133	57.1	+2.6	+4.7	+5.6	+2.8
Division place	Central Division 3rd Place	Cleveland Cavaliers	+300	25.0	+392	20.3	-4.7	-18.7	-6.2	-3.1
Division place	Central Division 3rd Place	Chicago Bulls	+950	9.5	+998	9.1	-0.4	-4.3	-0.5	-0.2
Division place	Central Division 3rd Place	Detroit Pistons	+480	17.2	+1069	8.6	-8.7	-50.4	-10.5	-5.2
Division place	Central Division 3rd Place	Milwaukee Bucks	+1200	7.7	+1943	4.9	-2.8	-36.4	-3.0	-1.5

Central Division 4th Place 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Central Division 4th Place	Chicago Bulls	-110	52.4	-113	53.0	+0.6	+1.2	+1.3	+0.7
Division place	Central Division 4th Place	Milwaukee Bucks	+130	43.5	+198	33.6	-9.9	-22.7	-17.5	-8.7
Division place	Central Division 4th Place	Indiana Pacers	+750	11.8	+887	10.1	-1.6	-13.9	-1.9	-0.9
Division place	Central Division 4th Place	Cleveland Cavaliers	+2500	3.8	+4084	2.4	-1.5	-37.9	-1.5	-0.8
Division place	Central Division 4th Place	Detroit Pistons	+3500	2.8	+11199	0.9	-1.9	-68.1	-1.9	-1.0

Central Division 5th Place 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Central Division 5th Place	Milwaukee Bucks	-150	60.0	-156	60.9	+0.9	+1.5	+2.2	+1.1
Division place	Central Division 5th Place	Chicago Bulls	+105	48.8	+178	36.0	-12.8	-26.2	-24.9	-12.5
Division place	Central Division 5th Place	Indiana Pacers	+3300	2.9	+4084	2.4	-0.6	-18.7	-0.6	-0.3
Division place	Central Division 5th Place	Cleveland Cavaliers	+10000	1.0	+20102	0.5	-0.5	-50.0	-0.5	-0.2
Division place	Central Division 5th Place	Detroit Pistons	+25000	0.4	+43378	0.2	-0.2	-42.3	-0.2	-0.1

Central Division Winner 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Central Division Winner	Detroit Pistons	-130	56.5	-165	62.3	+5.8	+10.2	+13.3	+6.7
Division place	Central Division Winner	Cleveland Cavaliers	+145	40.8	+238	29.5	-11.3	-27.6	-19.0	-9.5
Division place	Central Division Winner	Indiana Pacers	+550	15.4	+1205	7.7	-7.7	-50.2	-9.1	-4.6
Division place	Central Division Winner	Chicago Bulls	+25000	0.4	+28069	0.4	-0.0	-10.9	-0.0	-0.0
Division place	Central Division Winner	Milwaukee Bucks	+17500	0.6	+83233	0.1	-0.4	-78.9	-0.5	-0.2

Northwest Division 2nd Place 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Northwest Division 2nd Place	Denver Nuggets	+250	28.6	+282	26.2	-2.4	-8.3	-3.3	-1.7
Division place	Northwest Division 2nd Place	Oklahoma City Thunder	+330	23.3	+293	25.4	+2.2	+9.3	+2.8	+1.4
Division place	Northwest Division 2nd Place	Minnesota Timberwolves	+250	28.6	+303	24.8	-3.8	-13.2	-5.3	-2.6
Division place	Northwest Division 2nd Place	Portland Trail Blazers	+210	32.3	+330	23.3	-9.0	-27.8	-13.3	-6.6
Division place	Northwest Division 2nd Place	Utah Jazz	+8000	1.2	+32158	0.3	-0.9	-74.9	-0.9	-0.5

Northwest Division 3rd Place 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Northwest Division 3rd Place	Minnesota Timberwolves	+195	33.9	+251	28.5	-5.4	-16.1	-8.2	-4.1
Division place	Northwest Division 3rd Place	Portland Trail Blazers	+200	33.3	+253	28.3	-5.0	-14.9	-7.5	-3.7
Division place	Northwest Division 3rd Place	Denver Nuggets	+200	33.3	+260	27.8	-5.6	-16.7	-8.4	-4.2
Division place	Northwest Division 3rd Place	Oklahoma City Thunder	+850	10.5	+597	14.3	+3.8	+36.3	+4.3	+2.1
Division place	Northwest Division 3rd Place	Utah Jazz	+2700	3.6	+9117	1.1	-2.5	-69.6	-2.6	-1.3

Northwest Division 4th Place 5 prices · 2 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Northwest Division 4th Place	Portland Trail Blazers	+240	29.4	+222	31.0	+1.6	+5.6	+2.3	+1.2
Division place	Northwest Division 4th Place	Minnesota Timberwolves	+200	33.3	+254	28.2	-5.1	-15.2	-7.6	-3.8
Division place	Northwest Division 4th Place	Denver Nuggets	+190	34.5	+263	27.5	-6.9	-20.1	-10.6	-5.3
Division place	Northwest Division 4th Place	Oklahoma City Thunder	+2000	4.8	+1237	7.5	+2.7	+57.1	+2.9	+1.4
Division place	Northwest Division 4th Place	Utah Jazz	+700	12.5	+1659	5.7	-6.8	-54.5	-7.8	-3.9

Northwest Division 5th Place 5 prices · 2 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Northwest Division 5th Place	Utah Jazz	-900	90.0	-1279	92.8	+2.8	+3.1	+27.5	+13.8
Division place	Northwest Division 5th Place	Portland Trail Blazers	+2000	4.8	+4210	2.3	-2.4	-51.3	-2.6	-1.3
Division place	Northwest Division 5th Place	Minnesota Timberwolves	+1700	5.6	+4364	2.2	-3.3	-59.7	-3.5	-1.8
Division place	Northwest Division 5th Place	Denver Nuggets	+1500	6.2	+4466	2.2	-4.1	-65.0	-4.3	-2.2
Division place	Northwest Division 5th Place	Oklahoma City Thunder	+20000	0.5	+19900	0.5	+0.0	+0.5	+0.0	+0.0

Northwest Division Winner 5 prices · 2 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Northwest Division Winner	Oklahoma City Thunder	-260	72.2	-109	52.3	-20.0	-27.6	-71.9	-35.9
Division place	Northwest Division Winner	Denver Nuggets	+800	11.1	+513	16.3	+5.2	+46.7	+5.8	+2.9
Division place	Northwest Division Winner	Minnesota Timberwolves	+700	12.5	+515	16.3	+3.8	+30.1	+4.3	+2.2
Division place	Northwest Division Winner	Portland Trail Blazers	+550	15.4	+566	15.0	-0.4	-2.5	-0.4	-0.2
Division place	Northwest Division Winner	Utah Jazz	+50000	0.2	+58724	0.2	-0.0	-14.8	-0.0	-0.0

Pacific Division 2nd Place 5 prices · 2 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Pacific Division 2nd Place	Golden State Warriors	+200	33.3	+178	35.9	+2.6	+7.8	+3.9	+1.9
Division place	Pacific Division 2nd Place	Phoenix Suns	+135	42.6	+236	29.8	-12.8	-30.1	-22.3	-11.1
Division place	Pacific Division 2nd Place	Los Angeles Lakers	+330	23.3	+302	24.9	+1.6	+7.0	+2.1	+1.1
Division place	Pacific Division 2nd Place	Los Angeles Clippers	+700	12.5	+994	9.1	-3.4	-26.9	-3.8	-1.9
Division place	Pacific Division 2nd Place	Sacramento Kings	+6500	1.5	+32687	0.3	-1.2	-79.9	-1.2	-0.6

Pacific Division 3rd Place 5 prices · 2 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Pacific Division 3rd Place	Phoenix Suns	+200	33.3	+181	35.6	+2.3	+6.9	+3.5	+1.7
Division place	Pacific Division 3rd Place	Golden State Warriors	+155	39.2	+232	30.1	-9.1	-23.3	-15.0	-7.5
Division place	Pacific Division 3rd Place	Los Angeles Clippers	+260	27.8	+342	22.6	-5.2	-18.6	-7.2	-3.6
Division place	Pacific Division 3rd Place	Los Angeles Lakers	+1000	9.1	+873	10.3	+1.2	+13.0	+1.3	+0.7
Division place	Pacific Division 3rd Place	Sacramento Kings	+1800	5.3	+7120	1.4	-3.9	-73.7	-4.1	-2.0

Pacific Division 4th Place 5 prices · 3 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Pacific Division 4th Place	Los Angeles Clippers	-120	54.5	-133	57.1	+2.6	+4.7	+5.6	+2.8
Division place	Pacific Division 4th Place	Phoenix Suns	+550	15.4	+466	17.7	+2.3	+14.8	+2.7	+1.3
Division place	Pacific Division 4th Place	Golden State Warriors	+330	23.3	+684	12.8	-10.5	-45.2	-13.7	-6.8
Division place	Pacific Division 4th Place	Sacramento Kings	+450	18.2	+941	9.6	-8.6	-47.1	-10.5	-5.2
Division place	Pacific Division 4th Place	Los Angeles Lakers	+4000	2.4	+3378	2.9	+0.4	+17.9	+0.4	+0.2

Pacific Division 5th Place 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Pacific Division 5th Place	Sacramento Kings	-500	83.3	-773	88.5	+5.2	+6.3	+31.3	+15.6
Division place	Pacific Division 5th Place	Los Angeles Clippers	+500	16.7	+1105	8.3	-8.4	-50.2	-10.0	-5.0
Division place	Pacific Division 5th Place	Phoenix Suns	+3000	3.2	+5410	1.8	-1.4	-43.7	-1.5	-0.7
Division place	Pacific Division 5th Place	Golden State Warriors	+1700	5.6	+9074	1.1	-4.5	-80.4	-4.7	-2.4
Division place	Pacific Division 5th Place	Los Angeles Lakers	+30000	0.3	+39900	0.2	-0.1	-24.8	-0.1	-0.0

Pacific Division Winner 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Pacific Division Winner	Los Angeles Lakers	-310	75.6	-161	61.7	-13.9	-18.4	-56.9	-28.5
Division place	Pacific Division Winner	Golden State Warriors	+700	12.5	+397	20.1	+7.6	+61.1	+8.7	+4.4
Division place	Pacific Division Winner	Phoenix Suns	+430	18.9	+561	15.1	-3.7	-19.8	-4.6	-2.3
Division place	Pacific Division Winner	Los Angeles Clippers	+3000	3.2	+3409	2.9	-0.4	-11.7	-0.4	-0.2
Division place	Pacific Division Winner	Sacramento Kings	+30000	0.3	+64416	0.2	-0.2	-53.3	-0.2	-0.1

Southeast Division 2nd Place 5 prices · 2 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Southeast Division 2nd Place	Orlando Magic	+300	25.0	+283	26.1	+1.1	+4.6	+1.5	+0.8
Division place	Southeast Division 2nd Place	Atlanta Hawks	+240	29.4	+286	25.9	-3.5	-11.8	-4.9	-2.5
Division place	Southeast Division 2nd Place	Charlotte Hornets	+350	22.2	+331	23.2	+1.0	+4.4	+1.3	+0.6
Division place	Southeast Division 2nd Place	Miami Heat	+270	27.0	+346	22.4	-4.6	-17.0	-6.3	-3.1
Division place	Southeast Division 2nd Place	Washington Wizards	+800	11.1	+4257	2.3	-8.8	-79.3	-9.9	-5.0

Southeast Division 3rd Place 5 prices · 2 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Southeast Division 3rd Place	Miami Heat	+290	25.6	+289	25.7	+0.0	+0.2	+0.1	+0.0
Division place	Southeast Division 3rd Place	Charlotte Hornets	+270	27.0	+297	25.2	-1.8	-6.8	-2.5	-1.3
Division place	Southeast Division 3rd Place	Orlando Magic	+300	25.0	+354	22.0	-3.0	-11.9	-4.0	-2.0
Division place	Southeast Division 3rd Place	Atlanta Hawks	+410	19.6	+364	21.6	+2.0	+10.0	+2.4	+1.2
Division place	Southeast Division 3rd Place	Washington Wizards	+500	16.7	+1708	5.5	-11.1	-66.8	-13.4	-6.7

Southeast Division 4th Place 5 prices · 2 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Southeast Division 4th Place	Miami Heat	+350	22.2	+285	26.0	+3.8	+16.9	+4.8	+2.4
Division place	Southeast Division 4th Place	Charlotte Hornets	+250	28.6	+307	24.6	-4.0	-14.1	-5.6	-2.8
Division place	Southeast Division 4th Place	Orlando Magic	+330	23.3	+449	18.2	-5.0	-21.7	-6.6	-3.3
Division place	Southeast Division 4th Place	Washington Wizards	+270	27.0	+489	17.0	-10.1	-37.2	-13.8	-6.9
Division place	Southeast Division 4th Place	Atlanta Hawks	+650	13.3	+600	14.3	+0.9	+7.1	+1.1	+0.5

Southeast Division 5th Place 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Southeast Division 5th Place	Washington Wizards	-115	53.5	-287	74.1	+20.6	+38.6	+44.4	+22.2
Division place	Southeast Division 5th Place	Miami Heat	+600	14.3	+1057	8.6	-5.6	-39.5	-6.6	-3.3
Division place	Southeast Division 5th Place	Charlotte Hornets	+360	21.7	+1215	7.6	-14.1	-65.0	-18.1	-9.0
Division place	Southeast Division 5th Place	Orlando Magic	+470	17.5	+1707	5.5	-12.0	-68.5	-14.6	-7.3
Division place	Southeast Division 5th Place	Atlanta Hawks	+1300	7.1	+2348	4.1	-3.1	-42.8	-3.3	-1.6

Southeast Division Winner 5 prices · 2 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Southeast Division Winner	Atlanta Hawks	+125	44.4	+193	34.1	-10.3	-23.2	-18.6	-9.3
Division place	Southeast Division Winner	Orlando Magic	+340	22.7	+256	28.1	+5.4	+23.6	+6.9	+3.5
Division place	Southeast Division Winner	Charlotte Hornets	+550	15.4	+414	19.4	+4.1	+26.4	+4.8	+2.4
Division place	Southeast Division Winner	Miami Heat	+300	25.0	+479	17.3	-7.7	-31.0	-10.3	-5.2
Division place	Southeast Division Winner	Washington Wizards	+1500	6.2	+9290	1.1	-5.2	-83.0	-5.5	-2.8

Southwest Division 2nd Place 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Southwest Division 2nd Place	San Antonio Spurs	+220	31.2	-101	50.3	+19.1	+61.0	+27.7	+13.9
Division place	Southwest Division 2nd Place	Houston Rockets	-210	67.7	+126	44.3	-23.4	-34.6	-72.6	-36.3
Division place	Southwest Division 2nd Place	Memphis Grizzlies	+1300	7.1	+2958	3.3	-3.9	-54.2	-4.2	-2.1
Division place	Southwest Division 2nd Place	Dallas Mavericks	+2200	4.3	+7868	1.3	-3.1	-71.1	-3.2	-1.6
Division place	Southwest Division 2nd Place	New Orleans Pelicans	+4000	2.4	+11734	0.8	-1.6	-65.4	-1.6	-0.8

Southwest Division 3rd Place 5 prices · 2 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Southwest Division 3rd Place	Memphis Grizzlies	+110	47.6	+101	49.8	+2.2	+4.6	+4.2	+2.1
Division place	Southwest Division 3rd Place	Dallas Mavericks	+170	37.0	+265	27.4	-9.6	-26.0	-15.3	-7.6
Division place	Southwest Division 3rd Place	New Orleans Pelicans	+470	17.5	+470	17.6	+0.0	+0.1	+0.0	+0.0
Division place	Southwest Division 3rd Place	San Antonio Spurs	+3500	2.8	+3666	2.7	-0.1	-4.4	-0.1	-0.1
Division place	Southwest Division 3rd Place	Houston Rockets	+1000	9.1	+3822	2.5	-6.5	-72.0	-7.2	-3.6

Southwest Division 4th Place 5 prices · 0 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Southwest Division 4th Place	Dallas Mavericks	+135	42.6	+163	38.1	-4.5	-10.5	-7.8	-3.9
Division place	Southwest Division 4th Place	New Orleans Pelicans	+220	31.2	+224	30.9	-0.4	-1.2	-0.5	-0.3
Division place	Southwest Division 4th Place	Memphis Grizzlies	+170	37.0	+230	30.3	-6.7	-18.1	-10.7	-5.3
Division place	Southwest Division 4th Place	San Antonio Spurs	+22500	0.4	+24900	0.4	-0.0	-9.6	-0.0	-0.0
Division place	Southwest Division 4th Place	Houston Rockets	+4000	2.4	+30669	0.3	-2.1	-86.7	-2.2	-1.1

Southwest Division 5th Place 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Southwest Division 5th Place	New Orleans Pelicans	-160	61.5	-102	50.6	-10.9	-17.8	-28.5	-14.2
Division place	Southwest Division 5th Place	Dallas Mavericks	+240	29.4	+203	33.0	+3.6	+12.3	+5.1	+2.6
Division place	Southwest Division 5th Place	Memphis Grizzlies	+370	21.3	+523	16.1	-5.2	-24.5	-6.6	-3.3
Division place	Southwest Division 5th Place	Houston Rockets	+15000	0.7	+58724	0.2	-0.5	-74.3	-0.5	-0.2
Division place	Southwest Division 5th Place	San Antonio Spurs	+50000	0.2	+62400	0.2	-0.0	-19.8	-0.0	-0.0

Southwest Division Winner 5 prices · 1 +EV

Type	Market	Bet	FanDuel	FD %	Fair	Fair %	Edge	EV %	Kelly %	½ Kelly %
Division place	Southwest Division Winner	Houston Rockets	+210	32.3	-111	52.6	+20.4	+63.2	+30.1	+15.0
Division place	Southwest Division Winner	San Antonio Spurs	-300	75.0	+115	46.5	-28.5	-38.0	-114.1	-57.1
Division place	Southwest Division Winner	Memphis Grizzlies	+8000	1.2	+18768	0.5	-0.7	-57.1	-0.7	-0.4
Division place	Southwest Division Winner	Dallas Mavericks	+17500	0.6	+40716	0.2	-0.3	-56.9	-0.3	-0.2
Division place	Southwest Division Winner	New Orleans Pelicans	+50000	0.2	+86857	0.1	-0.1	-42.4	-0.1	-0.0

Simulated season by team means over the simulated seasons

Team	Wins	± sd	Seed	Play-in %	Playoffs %	2nd rd %	Conf finals %	Finals %	Title %	Playoff net
OKC	54.3	6.6	3.3	8	98	82	60	42.1	28.7	+9.2
BOS	56.3	6.4	2.4	4	98	79	55	35.0	17.5	+7.3
SAS	54.7	6.5	3.2	7	98	72	42	22.1	12.5	+6.9
NYK	51.4	6.7	4.0	14	94	65	39	20.6	8.8	+5.9
HOU	55.2	6.6	3.0	7	98	62	29	11.0	5.5	+4.8
TOR	46.9	6.9	5.8	32	82	45	22	10.7	4.1	+4.4
PHI	47.8	6.9	5.4	28	85	47	23	10.6	4.0	+4.3
DET	51.1	6.8	4.1	16	92	54	25	10.7	3.8	+4.0
DEN	48.5	6.9	5.3	29	89	45	19	7.4	3.5	+4.3
MIN	48.4	6.9	5.3	29	89	43	18	6.8	3.3	+4.2
POR	48.0	6.9	5.5	31	87	37	14	4.9	2.3	+3.3
LAL	47.2	6.9	5.8	35	85	31	11	3.5	1.5	+2.5
CLE	46.9	7.0	5.8	33	80	34	13	4.7	1.3	+2.2
GSW	41.2	6.9	8.1	58	59	16	5	1.6	0.7	+1.4
ATL	43.4	7.0	7.2	46	63	20	7	2.2	0.7	+0.6
MIA	40.3	7.0	8.6	50	46	14	5	1.5	0.5	+0.5
IND	40.3	7.0	8.6	50	46	14	4	1.5	0.4	+0.5
CHA	40.7	7.0	8.4	50	47	12	4	1.1	0.3	-0.4
ORL	42.5	7.1	7.6	47	56	14	4	1.1	0.3	-0.7
PHX	39.5	7.1	8.7	58	42	5	1	0.2	0.1	-3.0
MEM	34.8	6.8	10.3	44	21	2	1	0.1	0.1	-3.5
WAS	29.1	6.6	12.5	11	4	1	0	0.1	0.1	-5.2
LAC	32.7	6.9	11.1	33	13	2	0	0.1	0.0	-4.5
BKN	25.7	6.5	13.4	5	2	0	0	0.1	0.0	-6.6
DAL	31.4	6.8	11.5	26	10	1	0	0.1	0.0	-5.3
CHI	27.8	6.6	12.8	8	3	0	0	0.1	0.0	-6.5
UTA	29.1	6.6	12.3	16	5	1	0	0.0	0.0	-6.5
NOP	28.9	6.7	12.3	17	6	1	0	0.0	0.0	-6.1
MIL	25.2	6.3	13.5	4	1	0	0	0.0	0.0	-7.4
SAC	20.5	6.0	14.3	2	0	0	0	0.0	0.0	-10.5

Each simulated season draws a fat-tailed rating shock per team, then plays every remaining game with that date's team nets (who is out, from the minutes model) + 2.3 home court, sd 12.5; the 2 unscheduled games sit in the Dec 4-11 Cup window. Standings: wins, 2-team head-to-head, conference record, point differential. NBA Cup: FanDuel's groups, group record / head-to-head / point differential, best 2nd place per conference as wild card. Play-in, then best-of-7 series with home court to the better seed; playoff nets use DARKO's market playoff rating, a tighter rotation, and anyone back from injury by 2027-04-18. Seeds and division places are regular-season standings. "More wins than" ties are treated as a push and most / fewest wins ties as dead heats (check FanDuel's rules). Kelly = (p x decimal - 1) / (decimal - 1). Not priced (not team outcomes): Clutch Player Of The Year (1), Coach Of The Year (1), Defensive Player Of The Year (1), Eastern Conference Finals Mvp (1), Finals Mvp (1), In Season Tournament Mvp (1), Most Improved Player (1), Most Valuable Player (1), Rookie Of The Year (1), Sixth Man Of The Year (1), Western Conference Finals Mvp (1).