NBA futures: sim fair value vs FanDuel
Simulated seasons
20,000
ran 2026-10-28 15:40 · 1.7s
FanDuel prices
2,147
pulled Oct 28 3:40 PM ET · 727 +EV
Team uncertainty
±2.5 net
Student-t, 5 df, per team per season
Shown
5
+EV bets passing the filters
Best by Kelly top 5 by full-Kelly fraction · ½ Kelly alongside
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Boston Celtics | +850 | 10.5 | +472 | 17.5 | +7.0 | +66.2 | +7.8 | +3.9 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Oklahoma City Thunder | +750 | 11.8 | +644 | 13.4 | +1.7 | +14.3 | +1.9 | +1.0 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | New York Knicks | +800 | 11.1 | +744 | 11.9 | +0.7 | +6.7 | +0.8 | +0.4 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Houston Rockets | +1800 | 5.3 | +1710 | 5.5 | +0.3 | +5.0 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Denver Nuggets | +2500 | 3.8 | +2467 | 3.9 | +0.0 | +1.3 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
Best by EV top 5 by expected return per $1
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Boston Celtics | +850 | 10.5 | +472 | 17.5 | +7.0 | +66.2 | +7.8 | +3.9 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Oklahoma City Thunder | +750 | 11.8 | +644 | 13.4 | +1.7 | +14.3 | +1.9 | +1.0 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | New York Knicks | +800 | 11.1 | +744 | 11.9 | +0.7 | +6.7 | +0.8 | +0.4 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Houston Rockets | +1800 | 5.3 | +1710 | 5.5 | +0.3 | +5.0 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Denver Nuggets | +2500 | 3.8 | +2467 | 3.9 | +0.0 | +1.3 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
Finals Runner Up 30 prices · 5 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Boston Celtics | +850 | 10.5 | +472 | 17.5 | +7.0 | +66.2 | +7.8 | +3.9 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Oklahoma City Thunder | +750 | 11.8 | +644 | 13.4 | +1.7 | +14.3 | +1.9 | +1.0 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | New York Knicks | +800 | 11.1 | +744 | 11.9 | +0.7 | +6.7 | +0.8 | +0.4 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | San Antonio Spurs | +650 | 13.3 | +943 | 9.6 | -3.7 | -28.1 | -4.3 | -2.2 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Detroit Pistons | +1300 | 7.1 | +1359 | 6.9 | -0.3 | -4.0 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Philadelphia 76ers | +800 | 11.1 | +1406 | 6.6 | -4.5 | -40.2 | -5.0 | -2.5 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Toronto Raptors | +1200 | 7.7 | +1415 | 6.6 | -1.1 | -14.2 | -1.2 | -0.6 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Houston Rockets | +1800 | 5.3 | +1710 | 5.5 | +0.3 | +5.0 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Denver Nuggets | +2500 | 3.8 | +2467 | 3.9 | +0.0 | +1.3 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Minnesota Timberwolves | +2000 | 4.8 | +2741 | 3.5 | -1.2 | -26.1 | -1.3 | -0.7 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Cleveland Cavaliers | +1500 | 6.2 | +2872 | 3.4 | -2.9 | -46.2 | -3.1 | -1.5 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Portland Trail Blazers | +2700 | 3.6 | +3681 | 2.6 | -0.9 | -25.9 | -1.0 | -0.5 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Los Angeles Lakers | +2500 | 3.8 | +4963 | 2.0 | -1.9 | -48.6 | -1.9 | -1.0 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Atlanta Hawks | +2500 | 3.8 | +6567 | 1.5 | -2.3 | -61.0 | -2.4 | -1.2 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Indiana Pacers | +2200 | 4.3 | +8829 | 1.1 | -3.2 | -74.2 | -3.4 | -1.7 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Miami Heat | +2700 | 3.6 | +9424 | 1.1 | -2.5 | -70.6 | -2.6 | -1.3 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Golden State Warriors | +7000 | 1.4 | +11665 | 0.9 | -0.6 | -39.6 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Orlando Magic | +3000 | 3.2 | +12322 | 0.8 | -2.4 | -75.0 | -2.5 | -1.3 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Charlotte Hornets | +5500 | 1.8 | +12400 | 0.8 | -1.0 | -55.2 | -1.0 | -0.5 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Phoenix Suns | +10000 | 1.0 | +83233 | 0.1 | -0.9 | -87.9 | -0.9 | -0.4 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Washington Wizards | +10000 | 1.0 | +166567 | 0.1 | -0.9 | -93.9 | -0.9 | -0.5 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Memphis Grizzlies | +20000 | 0.5 | +166567 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -87.9 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Dallas Mavericks | +25000 | 0.4 | +166567 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -84.9 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Brooklyn Nets | +100000 | 0.1 | +249900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -60.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Los Angeles Clippers | +75000 | 0.1 | +333233 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -77.5 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Chicago Bulls | +75000 | 0.1 | +333233 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -77.5 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | New Orleans Pelicans | +50000 | 0.2 | +399900 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -87.5 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Milwaukee Bucks | +75000 | 0.1 | +499900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -85.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Sacramento Kings | +100000 | 0.1 | +666567 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -85.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Finals runner-up | Finals Runner Up | Utah Jazz | +35000 | 0.3 | +999900 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -96.5 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
Simulated season by team means over the simulated seasons
| Team | Wins | ± sd | Seed | Play-in % | Playoffs % | 2nd rd % | Conf finals % | Finals % | Title % | Playoff net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 54.3 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 8 | 98 | 82 | 60 | 42.1 | 28.7 | +9.2 |
| BOS | 56.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 4 | 98 | 79 | 55 | 35.0 | 17.5 | +7.3 |
| SAS | 54.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 7 | 98 | 72 | 42 | 22.1 | 12.5 | +6.9 |
| NYK | 51.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 14 | 94 | 65 | 39 | 20.6 | 8.8 | +5.9 |
| HOU | 55.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 7 | 98 | 62 | 29 | 11.0 | 5.5 | +4.8 |
| TOR | 46.9 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 32 | 82 | 45 | 22 | 10.7 | 4.1 | +4.4 |
| PHI | 47.8 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 28 | 85 | 47 | 23 | 10.6 | 4.0 | +4.3 |
| DET | 51.1 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 16 | 92 | 54 | 25 | 10.7 | 3.8 | +4.0 |
| DEN | 48.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 29 | 89 | 45 | 19 | 7.4 | 3.5 | +4.3 |
| MIN | 48.4 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 29 | 89 | 43 | 18 | 6.8 | 3.3 | +4.2 |
| POR | 48.0 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 31 | 87 | 37 | 14 | 4.9 | 2.3 | +3.3 |
| LAL | 47.2 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 35 | 85 | 31 | 11 | 3.5 | 1.5 | +2.5 |
| CLE | 46.9 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 33 | 80 | 34 | 13 | 4.7 | 1.3 | +2.2 |
| GSW | 41.2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 58 | 59 | 16 | 5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | +1.4 |
| ATL | 43.4 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 46 | 63 | 20 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | +0.6 |
| MIA | 40.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 50 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| IND | 40.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 50 | 46 | 14 | 4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | +0.5 |
| CHA | 40.7 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 50 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -0.4 |
| ORL | 42.5 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 47 | 56 | 14 | 4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -0.7 |
| PHX | 39.5 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 58 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -3.0 |
| MEM | 34.8 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 44 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -3.5 |
| WAS | 29.1 | 6.6 | 12.5 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -5.2 |
| LAC | 32.7 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 33 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -4.5 |
| BKN | 25.7 | 6.5 | 13.4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -6.6 |
| DAL | 31.4 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -5.3 |
| CHI | 27.8 | 6.6 | 12.8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -6.5 |
| UTA | 29.1 | 6.6 | 12.3 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -6.5 |
| NOP | 28.9 | 6.7 | 12.3 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -6.1 |
| MIL | 25.2 | 6.3 | 13.5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -7.4 |
| SAC | 20.5 | 6.0 | 14.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -10.5 |
Each simulated season draws a fat-tailed rating shock per team, then plays every remaining game with that date's team nets (who is out, from the minutes model) + 2.3 home court, sd 12.5; the 2 unscheduled games sit in the Dec 4-11 Cup window. Standings: wins, 2-team head-to-head, conference record, point differential. NBA Cup: FanDuel's groups, group record / head-to-head / point differential, best 2nd place per conference as wild card. Play-in, then best-of-7 series with home court to the better seed; playoff nets use DARKO's market playoff rating, a tighter rotation, and anyone back from injury by 2027-04-18. Seeds and division places are regular-season standings. "More wins than" ties are treated as a push and most / fewest wins ties as dead heats (check FanDuel's rules). Kelly = (p x decimal - 1) / (decimal - 1). Not priced (not team outcomes): Clutch Player Of The Year (1), Coach Of The Year (1), Defensive Player Of The Year (1), Eastern Conference Finals Mvp (1), Finals Mvp (1), In Season Tournament Mvp (1), Most Improved Player (1), Most Valuable Player (1), Rookie Of The Year (1), Sixth Man Of The Year (1), Western Conference Finals Mvp (1).