NBA futures: sim fair value vs FanDuel
Simulated seasons
20,000
ran 2026-10-28 15:40 · 1.7s
FanDuel prices
2,147
pulled Oct 28 3:40 PM ET · 727 +EV
Team uncertainty
±2.5 net
Student-t, 5 df, per team per season
Shown
6
+EV bets passing the filters
Best by Kelly top 6 by full-Kelly fraction · ½ Kelly alongside
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Boston Celtics | +1200 | 7.7 | +470 | 17.5 | +9.8 | +127.9 | +10.7 | +5.3 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Boston Celtics | +1200 | 7.7 | +470 | 17.5 | +9.8 | +127.9 | +10.7 | +5.3 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Oklahoma City Thunder | +380 | 20.8 | +249 | 28.7 | +7.8 | +37.6 | +9.9 | +4.9 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Oklahoma City Thunder | +380 | 20.8 | +249 | 28.7 | +7.8 | +37.6 | +9.9 | +4.9 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Houston Rockets | +2000 | 4.8 | +1728 | 5.5 | +0.7 | +14.9 | +0.7 | +0.4 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Houston Rockets | +2000 | 4.8 | +1728 | 5.5 | +0.7 | +14.9 | +0.7 | +0.4 |
Best by EV top 6 by expected return per $1
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Boston Celtics | +1200 | 7.7 | +470 | 17.5 | +9.8 | +127.9 | +10.7 | +5.3 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Boston Celtics | +1200 | 7.7 | +470 | 17.5 | +9.8 | +127.9 | +10.7 | +5.3 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Oklahoma City Thunder | +380 | 20.8 | +249 | 28.7 | +7.8 | +37.6 | +9.9 | +4.9 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Oklahoma City Thunder | +380 | 20.8 | +249 | 28.7 | +7.8 | +37.6 | +9.9 | +4.9 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Houston Rockets | +2000 | 4.8 | +1728 | 5.5 | +0.7 | +14.9 | +0.7 | +0.4 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Houston Rockets | +2000 | 4.8 | +1728 | 5.5 | +0.7 | +14.9 | +0.7 | +0.4 |
Finals Winner 30 prices · 3 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Oklahoma City Thunder | +380 | 20.8 | +249 | 28.7 | +7.8 | +37.6 | +9.9 | +4.9 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Boston Celtics | +1200 | 7.7 | +470 | 17.5 | +9.8 | +127.9 | +10.7 | +5.3 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | San Antonio Spurs | +280 | 26.3 | +701 | 12.5 | -13.8 | -52.6 | -18.8 | -9.4 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | New York Knicks | +950 | 9.5 | +1043 | 8.8 | -0.8 | -8.1 | -0.9 | -0.4 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Houston Rockets | +2000 | 4.8 | +1728 | 5.5 | +0.7 | +14.9 | +0.7 | +0.4 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Toronto Raptors | +1600 | 5.9 | +2351 | 4.1 | -1.8 | -30.6 | -1.9 | -1.0 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Philadelphia 76ers | +950 | 9.5 | +2409 | 4.0 | -5.5 | -58.2 | -6.1 | -3.1 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Detroit Pistons | +2200 | 4.3 | +2514 | 3.8 | -0.5 | -12.0 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Denver Nuggets | +2500 | 3.8 | +2737 | 3.5 | -0.3 | -8.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Minnesota Timberwolves | +1900 | 5.0 | +2912 | 3.3 | -1.7 | -33.6 | -1.8 | -0.9 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Portland Trail Blazers | +3000 | 3.2 | +4276 | 2.3 | -0.9 | -29.2 | -1.0 | -0.5 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Los Angeles Lakers | +3000 | 3.2 | +6589 | 1.5 | -1.7 | -53.7 | -1.8 | -0.9 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Cleveland Cavaliers | +2500 | 3.8 | +7447 | 1.3 | -2.5 | -65.5 | -2.6 | -1.3 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Golden State Warriors | +8000 | 1.2 | +13505 | 0.7 | -0.5 | -40.5 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Atlanta Hawks | +4000 | 2.4 | +14084 | 0.7 | -1.7 | -71.1 | -1.8 | -0.9 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Miami Heat | +4500 | 2.2 | +20308 | 0.5 | -1.7 | -77.5 | -1.7 | -0.9 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Indiana Pacers | +4000 | 2.4 | +24900 | 0.4 | -2.0 | -83.6 | -2.1 | -1.0 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Charlotte Hornets | +12500 | 0.8 | +31646 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -60.3 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Orlando Magic | +5500 | 1.8 | +39116 | 0.3 | -1.5 | -85.7 | -1.6 | -0.8 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Phoenix Suns | +15000 | 0.7 | +105163 | 0.1 | -0.6 | -85.7 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Washington Wizards | +30000 | 0.3 | +153746 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -80.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Memphis Grizzlies | +30000 | 0.3 | +166567 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -81.9 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Los Angeles Clippers | +100000 | 0.1 | +249900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -60.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Dallas Mavericks | +50000 | 0.2 | +499900 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -90.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Utah Jazz | +75000 | 0.1 | +499900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -85.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Brooklyn Nets | +100000 | 0.1 | +499900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -80.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Chicago Bulls | +100000 | 0.1 | +499900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -80.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | New Orleans Pelicans | +100000 | 0.1 | +999900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -90.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Sacramento Kings | +100000 | 0.1 | +1999900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -95.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner | Milwaukee Bucks | +100000 | 0.1 | – | 0.0 | -0.1 | -100.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Finals Winner - East 15 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Boston Celtics | +1200 | 7.7 | +470 | 17.5 | +9.8 | +127.9 | +10.7 | +5.3 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | New York Knicks | +950 | 9.5 | +1043 | 8.8 | -0.8 | -8.1 | -0.9 | -0.4 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Toronto Raptors | +1600 | 5.9 | +2351 | 4.1 | -1.8 | -30.6 | -1.9 | -1.0 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Philadelphia 76ers | +950 | 9.5 | +2409 | 4.0 | -5.5 | -58.2 | -6.1 | -3.1 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Detroit Pistons | +2200 | 4.3 | +2514 | 3.8 | -0.5 | -12.0 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Cleveland Cavaliers | +2500 | 3.8 | +7447 | 1.3 | -2.5 | -65.5 | -2.6 | -1.3 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Atlanta Hawks | +4000 | 2.4 | +14084 | 0.7 | -1.7 | -71.1 | -1.8 | -0.9 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Miami Heat | +4500 | 2.2 | +20308 | 0.5 | -1.7 | -77.5 | -1.7 | -0.9 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Indiana Pacers | +4000 | 2.4 | +24900 | 0.4 | -2.0 | -83.6 | -2.1 | -1.0 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Charlotte Hornets | +12500 | 0.8 | +31646 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -60.3 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Orlando Magic | +5500 | 1.8 | +39116 | 0.3 | -1.5 | -85.7 | -1.6 | -0.8 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Washington Wizards | +30000 | 0.3 | +153746 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -80.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Chicago Bulls | +100000 | 0.1 | +499900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -80.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Brooklyn Nets | +100000 | 0.1 | +499900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -80.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - East | Milwaukee Bucks | +100000 | 0.1 | – | 0.0 | -0.1 | -100.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Finals Winner - West 15 prices · 2 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Oklahoma City Thunder | +380 | 20.8 | +249 | 28.7 | +7.8 | +37.6 | +9.9 | +4.9 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | San Antonio Spurs | +280 | 26.3 | +701 | 12.5 | -13.8 | -52.6 | -18.8 | -9.4 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Houston Rockets | +2000 | 4.8 | +1728 | 5.5 | +0.7 | +14.9 | +0.7 | +0.4 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Denver Nuggets | +2500 | 3.8 | +2737 | 3.5 | -0.3 | -8.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Minnesota Timberwolves | +1900 | 5.0 | +2912 | 3.3 | -1.7 | -33.6 | -1.8 | -0.9 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Portland Trail Blazers | +3000 | 3.2 | +4276 | 2.3 | -0.9 | -29.2 | -1.0 | -0.5 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Los Angeles Lakers | +3000 | 3.2 | +6589 | 1.5 | -1.7 | -53.7 | -1.8 | -0.9 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Golden State Warriors | +8000 | 1.2 | +13505 | 0.7 | -0.5 | -40.5 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Phoenix Suns | +15000 | 0.7 | +105163 | 0.1 | -0.6 | -85.7 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Memphis Grizzlies | +30000 | 0.3 | +166567 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -81.9 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Los Angeles Clippers | +100000 | 0.1 | +249900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -60.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Dallas Mavericks | +50000 | 0.2 | +499900 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -90.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Utah Jazz | +75000 | 0.1 | +499900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -85.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | New Orleans Pelicans | +100000 | 0.1 | +999900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -90.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Finals winner | Finals Winner - West | Sacramento Kings | +100000 | 0.1 | +1999900 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -95.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
Simulated season by team means over the simulated seasons
| Team | Wins | ± sd | Seed | Play-in % | Playoffs % | 2nd rd % | Conf finals % | Finals % | Title % | Playoff net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 54.3 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 8 | 98 | 82 | 60 | 42.1 | 28.7 | +9.2 |
| BOS | 56.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 4 | 98 | 79 | 55 | 35.0 | 17.5 | +7.3 |
| SAS | 54.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 7 | 98 | 72 | 42 | 22.1 | 12.5 | +6.9 |
| NYK | 51.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 14 | 94 | 65 | 39 | 20.6 | 8.8 | +5.9 |
| HOU | 55.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 7 | 98 | 62 | 29 | 11.0 | 5.5 | +4.8 |
| TOR | 46.9 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 32 | 82 | 45 | 22 | 10.7 | 4.1 | +4.4 |
| PHI | 47.8 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 28 | 85 | 47 | 23 | 10.6 | 4.0 | +4.3 |
| DET | 51.1 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 16 | 92 | 54 | 25 | 10.7 | 3.8 | +4.0 |
| DEN | 48.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 29 | 89 | 45 | 19 | 7.4 | 3.5 | +4.3 |
| MIN | 48.4 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 29 | 89 | 43 | 18 | 6.8 | 3.3 | +4.2 |
| POR | 48.0 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 31 | 87 | 37 | 14 | 4.9 | 2.3 | +3.3 |
| LAL | 47.2 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 35 | 85 | 31 | 11 | 3.5 | 1.5 | +2.5 |
| CLE | 46.9 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 33 | 80 | 34 | 13 | 4.7 | 1.3 | +2.2 |
| GSW | 41.2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 58 | 59 | 16 | 5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | +1.4 |
| ATL | 43.4 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 46 | 63 | 20 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | +0.6 |
| MIA | 40.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 50 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| IND | 40.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 50 | 46 | 14 | 4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | +0.5 |
| CHA | 40.7 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 50 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -0.4 |
| ORL | 42.5 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 47 | 56 | 14 | 4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -0.7 |
| PHX | 39.5 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 58 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -3.0 |
| MEM | 34.8 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 44 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -3.5 |
| WAS | 29.1 | 6.6 | 12.5 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -5.2 |
| LAC | 32.7 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 33 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -4.5 |
| BKN | 25.7 | 6.5 | 13.4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -6.6 |
| DAL | 31.4 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -5.3 |
| CHI | 27.8 | 6.6 | 12.8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -6.5 |
| UTA | 29.1 | 6.6 | 12.3 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -6.5 |
| NOP | 28.9 | 6.7 | 12.3 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -6.1 |
| MIL | 25.2 | 6.3 | 13.5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -7.4 |
| SAC | 20.5 | 6.0 | 14.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -10.5 |
Each simulated season draws a fat-tailed rating shock per team, then plays every remaining game with that date's team nets (who is out, from the minutes model) + 2.3 home court, sd 12.5; the 2 unscheduled games sit in the Dec 4-11 Cup window. Standings: wins, 2-team head-to-head, conference record, point differential. NBA Cup: FanDuel's groups, group record / head-to-head / point differential, best 2nd place per conference as wild card. Play-in, then best-of-7 series with home court to the better seed; playoff nets use DARKO's market playoff rating, a tighter rotation, and anyone back from injury by 2027-04-18. Seeds and division places are regular-season standings. "More wins than" ties are treated as a push and most / fewest wins ties as dead heats (check FanDuel's rules). Kelly = (p x decimal - 1) / (decimal - 1). Not priced (not team outcomes): Clutch Player Of The Year (1), Coach Of The Year (1), Defensive Player Of The Year (1), Eastern Conference Finals Mvp (1), Finals Mvp (1), In Season Tournament Mvp (1), Most Improved Player (1), Most Valuable Player (1), Rookie Of The Year (1), Sixth Man Of The Year (1), Western Conference Finals Mvp (1).