NBA futures: sim fair value vs FanDuel
Simulated seasons
20,000
ran 2026-10-28 15:40 · 1.7s
FanDuel prices
2,147
pulled Oct 28 3:40 PM ET · 727 +EV
Team uncertainty
±2.5 net
Student-t, 5 df, per team per season
Shown
27
+EV bets passing the filters
Best by Kelly top 27 by full-Kelly fraction · ½ Kelly alongside
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Golden State Warriors Seed | Golden State Warriors Under 10.5 Seed = top 10 | -160 | 61.5 | -507 | 83.5 | +22.0 | +35.7 | +57.2 | +28.6 |
| Seed over/under | Boston Celtics Seed | Boston Celtics Under 3.5 Seed = top 3 | -150 | 60.0 | -392 | 79.7 | +19.7 | +32.8 | +49.2 | +24.6 |
| Seed over/under | Washington Wizards Seed | Washington Wizards Over 11.5 Seed = 12th or worse | -120 | 54.5 | -315 | 75.9 | +21.4 | +39.2 | +47.0 | +23.5 |
| Seed over/under | Dallas Mavericks Seed | Dallas Mavericks Over 10.5 Seed = 11th or worse | -120 | 54.5 | -244 | 71.0 | +16.4 | +30.1 | +36.1 | +18.1 |
| Seed over/under | New York Knicks Seed | New York Knicks Under 5.5 Seed = top 5 | -175 | 63.6 | -314 | 75.8 | +12.2 | +19.2 | +33.5 | +16.8 |
| Seed over/under | Houston Rockets Seed | Houston Rockets Under 3.5 Seed = top 3 | -105 | 51.2 | -205 | 67.2 | +15.9 | +31.1 | +32.7 | +16.3 |
| Seed over/under | Charlotte Hornets Seed | Charlotte Hornets Under 10.5 Seed = top 10 | -180 | 64.3 | -305 | 75.3 | +11.0 | +17.1 | +30.8 | +15.4 |
| Seed over/under | Utah Jazz Seed | Utah Jazz Over 10.5 Seed = 11th or worse | -290 | 74.4 | -464 | 82.3 | +7.9 | +10.6 | +30.8 | +15.4 |
| Seed over/under | Oklahoma City Thunder Seed | Oklahoma City Thunder Over 1.5 Seed = 2nd or worse | -195 | 66.1 | -324 | 76.4 | +10.3 | +15.6 | +30.4 | +15.2 |
| Seed over/under | Los Angeles Clippers Seed | Los Angeles Clippers Under 12.5 Seed = top 12 | -135 | 57.4 | -237 | 70.3 | +12.9 | +22.4 | +30.3 | +15.1 |
| Seed over/under | San Antonio Spurs Seed | San Antonio Spurs Over 2.5 Seed = 3rd or worse | +150 | 40.0 | -118 | 54.0 | +14.0 | +35.1 | +23.4 | +11.7 |
| Seed over/under | Indiana Pacers Seed | Indiana Pacers Over 7.5 Seed = 8th or worse | -135 | 57.4 | -205 | 67.2 | +9.7 | +16.9 | +22.8 | +11.4 |
| Seed over/under | Philadelphia 76ers Seed | Philadelphia 76ers Over 4.5 Seed = 5th or worse | +120 | 45.5 | -137 | 57.7 | +12.3 | +27.0 | +22.5 | +11.3 |
| Seed over/under | Orlando Magic Seed | Orlando Magic Under 8.5 Seed = top 8 | -105 | 51.2 | -141 | 58.6 | +7.3 | +14.3 | +15.0 | +7.5 |
| Seed over/under | Brooklyn Nets Seed | Brooklyn Nets Under 13.5 Seed = top 13 | +170 | 37.0 | +123 | 44.8 | +7.8 | +20.9 | +12.3 | +6.2 |
| Seed over/under | Miami Heat Seed | Miami Heat Over 7.5 Seed = 8th or worse | -170 | 63.0 | -206 | 67.3 | +4.4 | +6.9 | +11.8 | +5.9 |
| Seed over/under | Memphis Grizzlies Seed | Memphis Grizzlies Over 10.5 Seed = 11th or worse | +130 | 43.5 | +101 | 49.8 | +6.3 | +14.6 | +11.2 | +5.6 |
| Seed over/under | Detroit Pistons Seed | Detroit Pistons Under 4.5 Seed = top 4 | -145 | 59.2 | -171 | 63.1 | +3.9 | +6.5 | +9.5 | +4.7 |
| Seed over/under | Atlanta Hawks Seed | Atlanta Hawks Over 6.5 Seed = 7th or worse | -130 | 56.5 | -152 | 60.2 | +3.7 | +6.6 | +8.6 | +4.3 |
| Seed over/under | Milwaukee Bucks Seed | Milwaukee Bucks Over 13.5 Seed = 14th or worse | -130 | 56.5 | -147 | 59.5 | +2.9 | +5.2 | +6.7 | +3.4 |
| Seed over/under | Cleveland Cavaliers Seed | Cleveland Cavaliers Over 5.5 Seed = 6th or worse | +110 | 47.6 | -103 | 50.8 | +3.2 | +6.7 | +6.1 | +3.1 |
| Seed over/under | Denver Nuggets Seed | Denver Nuggets Under 5.5 Seed = top 5 | -110 | 52.4 | -121 | 54.8 | +2.4 | +4.6 | +5.1 | +2.5 |
| Seed over/under | New Orleans Pelicans Seed | New Orleans Pelicans Over 12.5 Seed = 13th or worse | -105 | 51.2 | -113 | 53.1 | +1.9 | +3.8 | +3.9 | +2.0 |
| Seed over/under | Chicago Bulls Seed | Chicago Bulls Under 13.5 Seed = top 13 | -135 | 57.4 | -145 | 59.1 | +1.7 | +2.9 | +3.9 | +1.9 |
| Seed over/under | Minnesota Timberwolves Seed | Minnesota Timberwolves Under 4.5 Seed = top 4 | +170 | 37.0 | +155 | 39.2 | +2.1 | +5.8 | +3.4 | +1.7 |
| Seed over/under | Los Angeles Lakers Seed | Los Angeles Lakers Over 5.5 Seed = 6th or worse | -110 | 52.4 | -113 | 53.1 | +0.7 | +1.4 | +1.6 | +0.8 |
| Seed over/under | Toronto Raptors Seed | Toronto Raptors Over 4.5 Seed = 5th or worse | -170 | 63.0 | -173 | 63.3 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +0.5 |
Best by EV top 27 by expected return per $1
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Washington Wizards Seed | Washington Wizards Over 11.5 Seed = 12th or worse | -120 | 54.5 | -315 | 75.9 | +21.4 | +39.2 | +47.0 | +23.5 |
| Seed over/under | Golden State Warriors Seed | Golden State Warriors Under 10.5 Seed = top 10 | -160 | 61.5 | -507 | 83.5 | +22.0 | +35.7 | +57.2 | +28.6 |
| Seed over/under | San Antonio Spurs Seed | San Antonio Spurs Over 2.5 Seed = 3rd or worse | +150 | 40.0 | -118 | 54.0 | +14.0 | +35.1 | +23.4 | +11.7 |
| Seed over/under | Boston Celtics Seed | Boston Celtics Under 3.5 Seed = top 3 | -150 | 60.0 | -392 | 79.7 | +19.7 | +32.8 | +49.2 | +24.6 |
| Seed over/under | Houston Rockets Seed | Houston Rockets Under 3.5 Seed = top 3 | -105 | 51.2 | -205 | 67.2 | +15.9 | +31.1 | +32.7 | +16.3 |
| Seed over/under | Dallas Mavericks Seed | Dallas Mavericks Over 10.5 Seed = 11th or worse | -120 | 54.5 | -244 | 71.0 | +16.4 | +30.1 | +36.1 | +18.1 |
| Seed over/under | Philadelphia 76ers Seed | Philadelphia 76ers Over 4.5 Seed = 5th or worse | +120 | 45.5 | -137 | 57.7 | +12.3 | +27.0 | +22.5 | +11.3 |
| Seed over/under | Los Angeles Clippers Seed | Los Angeles Clippers Under 12.5 Seed = top 12 | -135 | 57.4 | -237 | 70.3 | +12.9 | +22.4 | +30.3 | +15.1 |
| Seed over/under | Brooklyn Nets Seed | Brooklyn Nets Under 13.5 Seed = top 13 | +170 | 37.0 | +123 | 44.8 | +7.8 | +20.9 | +12.3 | +6.2 |
| Seed over/under | New York Knicks Seed | New York Knicks Under 5.5 Seed = top 5 | -175 | 63.6 | -314 | 75.8 | +12.2 | +19.2 | +33.5 | +16.8 |
| Seed over/under | Charlotte Hornets Seed | Charlotte Hornets Under 10.5 Seed = top 10 | -180 | 64.3 | -305 | 75.3 | +11.0 | +17.1 | +30.8 | +15.4 |
| Seed over/under | Indiana Pacers Seed | Indiana Pacers Over 7.5 Seed = 8th or worse | -135 | 57.4 | -205 | 67.2 | +9.7 | +16.9 | +22.8 | +11.4 |
| Seed over/under | Oklahoma City Thunder Seed | Oklahoma City Thunder Over 1.5 Seed = 2nd or worse | -195 | 66.1 | -324 | 76.4 | +10.3 | +15.6 | +30.4 | +15.2 |
| Seed over/under | Memphis Grizzlies Seed | Memphis Grizzlies Over 10.5 Seed = 11th or worse | +130 | 43.5 | +101 | 49.8 | +6.3 | +14.6 | +11.2 | +5.6 |
| Seed over/under | Orlando Magic Seed | Orlando Magic Under 8.5 Seed = top 8 | -105 | 51.2 | -141 | 58.6 | +7.3 | +14.3 | +15.0 | +7.5 |
| Seed over/under | Utah Jazz Seed | Utah Jazz Over 10.5 Seed = 11th or worse | -290 | 74.4 | -464 | 82.3 | +7.9 | +10.6 | +30.8 | +15.4 |
| Seed over/under | Miami Heat Seed | Miami Heat Over 7.5 Seed = 8th or worse | -170 | 63.0 | -206 | 67.3 | +4.4 | +6.9 | +11.8 | +5.9 |
| Seed over/under | Cleveland Cavaliers Seed | Cleveland Cavaliers Over 5.5 Seed = 6th or worse | +110 | 47.6 | -103 | 50.8 | +3.2 | +6.7 | +6.1 | +3.1 |
| Seed over/under | Atlanta Hawks Seed | Atlanta Hawks Over 6.5 Seed = 7th or worse | -130 | 56.5 | -152 | 60.2 | +3.7 | +6.6 | +8.6 | +4.3 |
| Seed over/under | Detroit Pistons Seed | Detroit Pistons Under 4.5 Seed = top 4 | -145 | 59.2 | -171 | 63.1 | +3.9 | +6.5 | +9.5 | +4.7 |
| Seed over/under | Minnesota Timberwolves Seed | Minnesota Timberwolves Under 4.5 Seed = top 4 | +170 | 37.0 | +155 | 39.2 | +2.1 | +5.8 | +3.4 | +1.7 |
| Seed over/under | Milwaukee Bucks Seed | Milwaukee Bucks Over 13.5 Seed = 14th or worse | -130 | 56.5 | -147 | 59.5 | +2.9 | +5.2 | +6.7 | +3.4 |
| Seed over/under | Denver Nuggets Seed | Denver Nuggets Under 5.5 Seed = top 5 | -110 | 52.4 | -121 | 54.8 | +2.4 | +4.6 | +5.1 | +2.5 |
| Seed over/under | New Orleans Pelicans Seed | New Orleans Pelicans Over 12.5 Seed = 13th or worse | -105 | 51.2 | -113 | 53.1 | +1.9 | +3.8 | +3.9 | +2.0 |
| Seed over/under | Chicago Bulls Seed | Chicago Bulls Under 13.5 Seed = top 13 | -135 | 57.4 | -145 | 59.1 | +1.7 | +2.9 | +3.9 | +1.9 |
| Seed over/under | Los Angeles Lakers Seed | Los Angeles Lakers Over 5.5 Seed = 6th or worse | -110 | 52.4 | -113 | 53.1 | +0.7 | +1.4 | +1.6 | +0.8 |
| Seed over/under | Toronto Raptors Seed | Toronto Raptors Over 4.5 Seed = 5th or worse | -170 | 63.0 | -173 | 63.3 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +0.5 |
Atlanta Hawks Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Atlanta Hawks Seed | Atlanta Hawks Over 6.5 Seed = 7th or worse | -130 | 56.5 | -152 | 60.2 | +3.7 | +6.6 | +8.6 | +4.3 |
| Seed over/under | Atlanta Hawks Seed | Atlanta Hawks Under 6.5 Seed = top 6 | +100 | 50.0 | +152 | 39.8 | -10.2 | -20.5 | -20.5 | -10.2 |
Boston Celtics Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Boston Celtics Seed | Boston Celtics Under 3.5 Seed = top 3 | -150 | 60.0 | -392 | 79.7 | +19.7 | +32.8 | +49.2 | +24.6 |
| Seed over/under | Boston Celtics Seed | Boston Celtics Over 3.5 Seed = 4th or worse | +115 | 46.5 | +392 | 20.3 | -26.2 | -56.3 | -49.0 | -24.5 |
Brooklyn Nets Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Brooklyn Nets Seed | Brooklyn Nets Over 13.5 Seed = 14th or worse | -210 | 67.7 | -123 | 55.2 | -12.5 | -18.5 | -38.8 | -19.4 |
| Seed over/under | Brooklyn Nets Seed | Brooklyn Nets Under 13.5 Seed = top 13 | +170 | 37.0 | +123 | 44.8 | +7.8 | +20.9 | +12.3 | +6.2 |
Charlotte Hornets Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Charlotte Hornets Seed | Charlotte Hornets Under 10.5 Seed = top 10 | -180 | 64.3 | -305 | 75.3 | +11.0 | +17.1 | +30.8 | +15.4 |
| Seed over/under | Charlotte Hornets Seed | Charlotte Hornets Over 10.5 Seed = 11th or worse | +145 | 40.8 | +305 | 24.7 | -16.1 | -39.4 | -27.2 | -13.6 |
Chicago Bulls Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Chicago Bulls Seed | Chicago Bulls Under 13.5 Seed = top 13 | -135 | 57.4 | -145 | 59.1 | +1.7 | +2.9 | +3.9 | +1.9 |
| Seed over/under | Chicago Bulls Seed | Chicago Bulls Over 13.5 Seed = 14th or worse | +105 | 48.8 | +145 | 40.9 | -7.9 | -16.2 | -15.4 | -7.7 |
Cleveland Cavaliers Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Cleveland Cavaliers Seed | Cleveland Cavaliers Over 5.5 Seed = 6th or worse | +110 | 47.6 | -103 | 50.8 | +3.2 | +6.7 | +6.1 | +3.1 |
| Seed over/under | Cleveland Cavaliers Seed | Cleveland Cavaliers Under 5.5 Seed = top 5 | -140 | 58.3 | +103 | 49.2 | -9.2 | -15.7 | -22.0 | -11.0 |
Dallas Mavericks Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Dallas Mavericks Seed | Dallas Mavericks Over 10.5 Seed = 11th or worse | -120 | 54.5 | -244 | 71.0 | +16.4 | +30.1 | +36.1 | +18.1 |
| Seed over/under | Dallas Mavericks Seed | Dallas Mavericks Under 10.5 Seed = top 10 | -110 | 52.4 | +244 | 29.0 | -23.3 | -44.6 | -49.0 | -24.5 |
Denver Nuggets Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Denver Nuggets Seed | Denver Nuggets Under 5.5 Seed = top 5 | -110 | 52.4 | -121 | 54.8 | +2.4 | +4.6 | +5.1 | +2.5 |
| Seed over/under | Denver Nuggets Seed | Denver Nuggets Over 5.5 Seed = 6th or worse | -120 | 54.5 | +121 | 45.2 | -9.3 | -17.1 | -20.6 | -10.3 |
Detroit Pistons Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Detroit Pistons Seed | Detroit Pistons Under 4.5 Seed = top 4 | -145 | 59.2 | -171 | 63.1 | +3.9 | +6.5 | +9.5 | +4.7 |
| Seed over/under | Detroit Pistons Seed | Detroit Pistons Over 4.5 Seed = 5th or worse | +110 | 47.6 | +171 | 36.9 | -10.7 | -22.4 | -20.4 | -10.2 |
Golden State Warriors Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Golden State Warriors Seed | Golden State Warriors Under 10.5 Seed = top 10 | -160 | 61.5 | -507 | 83.5 | +22.0 | +35.7 | +57.2 | +28.6 |
| Seed over/under | Golden State Warriors Seed | Golden State Warriors Over 10.5 Seed = 11th or worse | +125 | 44.4 | +507 | 16.5 | -28.0 | -62.9 | -50.3 | -25.2 |
Houston Rockets Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Houston Rockets Seed | Houston Rockets Under 3.5 Seed = top 3 | -105 | 51.2 | -205 | 67.2 | +15.9 | +31.1 | +32.7 | +16.3 |
| Seed over/under | Houston Rockets Seed | Houston Rockets Over 3.5 Seed = 4th or worse | -125 | 55.6 | +205 | 32.8 | -22.7 | -40.9 | -51.1 | -25.6 |
Indiana Pacers Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Indiana Pacers Seed | Indiana Pacers Over 7.5 Seed = 8th or worse | -135 | 57.4 | -205 | 67.2 | +9.7 | +16.9 | +22.8 | +11.4 |
| Seed over/under | Indiana Pacers Seed | Indiana Pacers Under 7.5 Seed = top 7 | +100 | 50.0 | +205 | 32.8 | -17.2 | -34.3 | -34.3 | -17.2 |
Los Angeles Clippers Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Los Angeles Clippers Seed | Los Angeles Clippers Under 12.5 Seed = top 12 | -135 | 57.4 | -237 | 70.3 | +12.9 | +22.4 | +30.3 | +15.1 |
| Seed over/under | Los Angeles Clippers Seed | Los Angeles Clippers Over 12.5 Seed = 13th or worse | +100 | 50.0 | +237 | 29.7 | -20.3 | -40.7 | -40.7 | -20.3 |
Los Angeles Lakers Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Los Angeles Lakers Seed | Los Angeles Lakers Over 5.5 Seed = 6th or worse | -110 | 52.4 | -113 | 53.1 | +0.7 | +1.4 | +1.6 | +0.8 |
| Seed over/under | Los Angeles Lakers Seed | Los Angeles Lakers Under 5.5 Seed = top 5 | -120 | 54.5 | +113 | 46.9 | -7.7 | -14.1 | -16.9 | -8.4 |
Memphis Grizzlies Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Memphis Grizzlies Seed | Memphis Grizzlies Under 10.5 Seed = top 10 | -165 | 62.3 | -101 | 50.2 | -12.1 | -19.4 | -32.0 | -16.0 |
| Seed over/under | Memphis Grizzlies Seed | Memphis Grizzlies Over 10.5 Seed = 11th or worse | +130 | 43.5 | +101 | 49.8 | +6.3 | +14.6 | +11.2 | +5.6 |
Miami Heat Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Miami Heat Seed | Miami Heat Over 7.5 Seed = 8th or worse | -170 | 63.0 | -206 | 67.3 | +4.4 | +6.9 | +11.8 | +5.9 |
| Seed over/under | Miami Heat Seed | Miami Heat Under 7.5 Seed = top 7 | +135 | 42.6 | +206 | 32.7 | -9.9 | -23.2 | -17.2 | -8.6 |
Milwaukee Bucks Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Milwaukee Bucks Seed | Milwaukee Bucks Over 13.5 Seed = 14th or worse | -130 | 56.5 | -147 | 59.5 | +2.9 | +5.2 | +6.7 | +3.4 |
| Seed over/under | Milwaukee Bucks Seed | Milwaukee Bucks Under 13.5 Seed = top 13 | +100 | 50.0 | +147 | 40.5 | -9.5 | -18.9 | -18.9 | -9.5 |
Minnesota Timberwolves Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Minnesota Timberwolves Seed | Minnesota Timberwolves Over 4.5 Seed = 5th or worse | -210 | 67.7 | -155 | 60.8 | -6.9 | -10.2 | -21.5 | -10.7 |
| Seed over/under | Minnesota Timberwolves Seed | Minnesota Timberwolves Under 4.5 Seed = top 4 | +170 | 37.0 | +155 | 39.2 | +2.1 | +5.8 | +3.4 | +1.7 |
New Orleans Pelicans Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | New Orleans Pelicans Seed | New Orleans Pelicans Over 12.5 Seed = 13th or worse | -105 | 51.2 | -113 | 53.1 | +1.9 | +3.8 | +3.9 | +2.0 |
| Seed over/under | New Orleans Pelicans Seed | New Orleans Pelicans Under 12.5 Seed = top 12 | -125 | 55.6 | +113 | 46.9 | -8.7 | -15.7 | -19.6 | -9.8 |
New York Knicks Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | New York Knicks Seed | New York Knicks Under 5.5 Seed = top 5 | -175 | 63.6 | -314 | 75.8 | +12.2 | +19.2 | +33.5 | +16.8 |
| Seed over/under | New York Knicks Seed | New York Knicks Over 5.5 Seed = 6th or worse | +140 | 41.7 | +314 | 24.2 | -17.5 | -42.0 | -30.0 | -15.0 |
Oklahoma City Thunder Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Oklahoma City Thunder Seed | Oklahoma City Thunder Over 1.5 Seed = 2nd or worse | -195 | 66.1 | -324 | 76.4 | +10.3 | +15.6 | +30.4 | +15.2 |
| Seed over/under | Oklahoma City Thunder Seed | Oklahoma City Thunder Under 1.5 Seed = top 1 | +160 | 38.5 | +324 | 23.6 | -14.9 | -38.7 | -24.2 | -12.1 |
Orlando Magic Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Orlando Magic Seed | Orlando Magic Under 8.5 Seed = top 8 | -105 | 51.2 | -141 | 58.6 | +7.3 | +14.3 | +15.0 | +7.5 |
| Seed over/under | Orlando Magic Seed | Orlando Magic Over 8.5 Seed = 9th or worse | -125 | 55.6 | +141 | 41.4 | -14.1 | -25.4 | -31.7 | -15.9 |
Philadelphia 76ers Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Philadelphia 76ers Seed | Philadelphia 76ers Over 4.5 Seed = 5th or worse | +120 | 45.5 | -137 | 57.7 | +12.3 | +27.0 | +22.5 | +11.3 |
| Seed over/under | Philadelphia 76ers Seed | Philadelphia 76ers Under 4.5 Seed = top 4 | -155 | 60.8 | +137 | 42.3 | -18.5 | -30.5 | -47.2 | -23.6 |
Phoenix Suns Seed 2 prices · 0 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Phoenix Suns Seed | Phoenix Suns Over 8.5 Seed = 9th or worse | -145 | 59.2 | -119 | 54.3 | -4.9 | -8.3 | -12.0 | -6.0 |
| Seed over/under | Phoenix Suns Seed | Phoenix Suns Under 8.5 Seed = top 8 | +110 | 47.6 | +119 | 45.7 | -1.9 | -4.0 | -3.7 | -1.8 |
Portland Trail Blazers Seed 2 prices · 0 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Portland Trail Blazers Seed | Portland Trail Blazers Under 6.5 Seed = top 6 | -240 | 70.6 | -192 | 65.8 | -4.8 | -6.8 | -16.4 | -8.2 |
| Seed over/under | Portland Trail Blazers Seed | Portland Trail Blazers Over 6.5 Seed = 7th or worse | +190 | 34.5 | +192 | 34.2 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
Sacramento Kings Seed 2 prices · 0 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Sacramento Kings Seed | Sacramento Kings Over 14.5 Seed = 15th or worse | -185 | 64.9 | -179 | 64.2 | -0.7 | -1.1 | -2.0 | -1.0 |
| Seed over/under | Sacramento Kings Seed | Sacramento Kings Under 14.5 Seed = top 14 | +150 | 40.0 | +179 | 35.8 | -4.2 | -10.5 | -7.0 | -3.5 |
San Antonio Spurs Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | San Antonio Spurs Seed | San Antonio Spurs Over 2.5 Seed = 3rd or worse | +150 | 40.0 | -118 | 54.0 | +14.0 | +35.1 | +23.4 | +11.7 |
| Seed over/under | San Antonio Spurs Seed | San Antonio Spurs Under 2.5 Seed = top 2 | -185 | 64.9 | +118 | 46.0 | -18.9 | -29.2 | -54.0 | -27.0 |
Toronto Raptors Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Toronto Raptors Seed | Toronto Raptors Over 4.5 Seed = 5th or worse | -170 | 63.0 | -173 | 63.3 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +0.5 |
| Seed over/under | Toronto Raptors Seed | Toronto Raptors Under 4.5 Seed = top 4 | +135 | 42.6 | +173 | 36.7 | -5.9 | -13.8 | -10.2 | -5.1 |
Utah Jazz Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Utah Jazz Seed | Utah Jazz Over 10.5 Seed = 11th or worse | -290 | 74.4 | -464 | 82.3 | +7.9 | +10.6 | +30.8 | +15.4 |
| Seed over/under | Utah Jazz Seed | Utah Jazz Under 10.5 Seed = top 10 | +230 | 30.3 | +464 | 17.7 | -12.6 | -41.4 | -18.0 | -9.0 |
Washington Wizards Seed 2 prices · 1 +EV
| Type | Market | Bet | FanDuel | FD % | Fair | Fair % | Edge | EV % | Kelly % | ½ Kelly % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed over/under | Washington Wizards Seed | Washington Wizards Over 11.5 Seed = 12th or worse | -120 | 54.5 | -315 | 75.9 | +21.4 | +39.2 | +47.0 | +23.5 |
| Seed over/under | Washington Wizards Seed | Washington Wizards Under 11.5 Seed = top 11 | -110 | 52.4 | +315 | 24.1 | -28.3 | -54.0 | -59.4 | -29.7 |
Simulated season by team means over the simulated seasons
| Team | Wins | ± sd | Seed | Play-in % | Playoffs % | 2nd rd % | Conf finals % | Finals % | Title % | Playoff net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 54.3 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 8 | 98 | 82 | 60 | 42.1 | 28.7 | +9.2 |
| BOS | 56.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 4 | 98 | 79 | 55 | 35.0 | 17.5 | +7.3 |
| SAS | 54.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 7 | 98 | 72 | 42 | 22.1 | 12.5 | +6.9 |
| NYK | 51.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 14 | 94 | 65 | 39 | 20.6 | 8.8 | +5.9 |
| HOU | 55.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 7 | 98 | 62 | 29 | 11.0 | 5.5 | +4.8 |
| TOR | 46.9 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 32 | 82 | 45 | 22 | 10.7 | 4.1 | +4.4 |
| PHI | 47.8 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 28 | 85 | 47 | 23 | 10.6 | 4.0 | +4.3 |
| DET | 51.1 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 16 | 92 | 54 | 25 | 10.7 | 3.8 | +4.0 |
| DEN | 48.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 29 | 89 | 45 | 19 | 7.4 | 3.5 | +4.3 |
| MIN | 48.4 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 29 | 89 | 43 | 18 | 6.8 | 3.3 | +4.2 |
| POR | 48.0 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 31 | 87 | 37 | 14 | 4.9 | 2.3 | +3.3 |
| LAL | 47.2 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 35 | 85 | 31 | 11 | 3.5 | 1.5 | +2.5 |
| CLE | 46.9 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 33 | 80 | 34 | 13 | 4.7 | 1.3 | +2.2 |
| GSW | 41.2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 58 | 59 | 16 | 5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | +1.4 |
| ATL | 43.4 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 46 | 63 | 20 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | +0.6 |
| MIA | 40.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 50 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| IND | 40.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 50 | 46 | 14 | 4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | +0.5 |
| CHA | 40.7 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 50 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -0.4 |
| ORL | 42.5 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 47 | 56 | 14 | 4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -0.7 |
| PHX | 39.5 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 58 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -3.0 |
| MEM | 34.8 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 44 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -3.5 |
| WAS | 29.1 | 6.6 | 12.5 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -5.2 |
| LAC | 32.7 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 33 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -4.5 |
| BKN | 25.7 | 6.5 | 13.4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -6.6 |
| DAL | 31.4 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -5.3 |
| CHI | 27.8 | 6.6 | 12.8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -6.5 |
| UTA | 29.1 | 6.6 | 12.3 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -6.5 |
| NOP | 28.9 | 6.7 | 12.3 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -6.1 |
| MIL | 25.2 | 6.3 | 13.5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -7.4 |
| SAC | 20.5 | 6.0 | 14.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -10.5 |
Each simulated season draws a fat-tailed rating shock per team, then plays every remaining game with that date's team nets (who is out, from the minutes model) + 2.3 home court, sd 12.5; the 2 unscheduled games sit in the Dec 4-11 Cup window. Standings: wins, 2-team head-to-head, conference record, point differential. NBA Cup: FanDuel's groups, group record / head-to-head / point differential, best 2nd place per conference as wild card. Play-in, then best-of-7 series with home court to the better seed; playoff nets use DARKO's market playoff rating, a tighter rotation, and anyone back from injury by 2027-04-18. Seeds and division places are regular-season standings. "More wins than" ties are treated as a push and most / fewest wins ties as dead heats (check FanDuel's rules). Kelly = (p x decimal - 1) / (decimal - 1). Not priced (not team outcomes): Clutch Player Of The Year (1), Coach Of The Year (1), Defensive Player Of The Year (1), Eastern Conference Finals Mvp (1), Finals Mvp (1), In Season Tournament Mvp (1), Most Improved Player (1), Most Valuable Player (1), Rookie Of The Year (1), Sixth Man Of The Year (1), Western Conference Finals Mvp (1).